(08-15-2022 05:36 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-15-2022 02:26 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
Further expansion of the SEC and B1G will be driven by two factors, greater market access needs of the providers and size envy. You get to 20 by the B1G deeding to shore up it's western flank backed by media companies who want the west coast cities, where many of the providers and sponsors HQs are located; Notre Dame is the necessary catalyst. The SEC would be driven by ESPN wanting to maximize it's property to stay even with the B1G adding a power like Clemson and to fill out it's media footprint with schools like North Carolina and Miami.

So let's take 8 properties off the board: Notre Dame, Stanford, Oregon and Washington in the B1G, then Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State and Miami in the SEC. What happens with the other conferences.

The ACC would be cut down to 10:
Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Wake, Pitt, BC and NC State.

Who adds value to them in G5? Who is even worth looking at? To the latter I'd suggest a few AAC schools and a Big East member: SMU, Memphis, Temple, South Florida, Army and/or Navy (obviously Football only) and UConn.

Agree that SMU, Memphis, Temple, USF, UConn, and Navy (if they'd be willing) would be likely additions for the ACC in this type of scenario.

That would get the ACC back to 15 (or 16), assuming that they lose 5 schools.

If they wanted to be a 20-team conference, they could add Tulane, Louisiana, Buffalo, and one of the Carolina schools (ECU, Coastal Carolina, or App. State).

(08-15-2022 02:26 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The Pac-12 would likely collapse if and when the Big Ten decides to complete it's west coast takeover. You have to assume Stanford, Oregon and Washington are gone. This would prompt Arizona and Colorado at a minimum to bolt for the Big 12. The remnants would become the new Mountain West, as they'd have to absorb San Diego State, UNLV, Fresno State, Boise State and Colorado State just to be viable at 10. But such potential dilution would likely lead Arizona State, Utah and Cal to jump ship as well, and head to the Big 12...

The Big 12 is the one conference that could hit 20...

That's one possibility. Another is that the PAC remainers would absorb most of the MWC (and possibly SMU, UTEP, and/or NMSU) and continue on as the PAC.

. . . . . . . . . .

Schools that might move up from G5 to P5:

MWC (all 12)

AAC (5 or 6): SMU, Memphis, Temple, South Florida, Navy, Tulane, ECU?

SBC (3): Louisiana, App. State, Coastal Carolina

CUSA (7): WKU, MTSU, UTSA, UAB, Marshall, UNT, UTEP

MAC (1): Buffalo

IND (2): UConn, NMSU

FCS (1): NDSU

.

You don't answer my primary question, who is paying for this expansion? And related, how does adding schools of low valuation help the revenue of the schools in these three conferences?

(08-15-2022 11:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(08-15-2022 05:36 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-15-2022 02:26 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
Further expansion of the SEC and B1G will be driven by two factors, greater market access needs of the providers and size envy. You get to 20 by the B1G deeding to shore up it's western flank backed by media companies who want the west coast cities, where many of the providers and sponsors HQs are located; Notre Dame is the necessary catalyst. The SEC would be driven by ESPN wanting to maximize it's property to stay even with the B1G adding a power like Clemson and to fill out it's media footprint with schools like North Carolina and Miami.

So let's take 8 properties off the board: Notre Dame, Stanford, Oregon and Washington in the B1G, then Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State and Miami in the SEC. What happens with the other conferences.

The ACC would be cut down to 10:
Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Wake, Pitt, BC and NC State.

Who adds value to them in G5? Who is even worth looking at? To the latter I'd suggest a few AAC schools and a Big East member: SMU, Memphis, Temple, South Florida, Army and/or Navy (obviously Football only) and UConn.

Agree that SMU, Memphis, Temple, USF, UConn, and Navy (if they'd be willing) would be likely additions for the ACC in this type of scenario.

That would get the ACC back to 15 (or 16), assuming that they lose 5 schools.

If they wanted to be a 20-team conference, they could add Tulane, Louisiana, Buffalo, and one of the Carolina schools (ECU, Coastal Carolina, or App. State).

(08-15-2022 02:26 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The Pac-12 would likely collapse if and when the Big Ten decides to complete it's west coast takeover. You have to assume Stanford, Oregon and Washington are gone. This would prompt Arizona and Colorado at a minimum to bolt for the Big 12. The remnants would become the new Mountain West, as they'd have to absorb San Diego State, UNLV, Fresno State, Boise State and Colorado State just to be viable at 10. But such potential dilution would likely lead Arizona State, Utah and Cal to jump ship as well, and head to the Big 12...

The Big 12 is the one conference that could hit 20...

That's one possibility. Another is that the PAC remainers would absorb most of the MWC (and possibly SMU, UTEP, and/or NMSU) and continue on as the PAC.

. . . . . . . . . .

Schools that might move up from G5 to P5:

MWC (all 12)

AAC (5 or 6): SMU, Memphis, Temple, South Florida, Navy, Tulane, ECU?

SBC (3): Louisiana, App. State, Coastal Carolina

CUSA (7): WKU, MTSU, UTSA, UAB, Marshall, UNT, UTEP

MAC (1): Buffalo

IND (2): UConn, NMSU

FCS (1): NDSU

.

You don't answer my primary question, who is paying for this expansion?

The networks will provide the broadcasting revenue - - less to the "low valuation" members, at least at first. Over time, a certain of equilibration will take place based on what the market will bear.

Some of the "M" conferences - - particularly those that have to take the most non-P5 teas might end up receiving half (or less than half) of what the current members receive now.

The most extreme example of that would probably be the PAC. If they were to lose all but 3 or 4 members and respond by absorbing most or all of the MWC, the payments per school might drop down to something like $10-$12M/year per school.

That wouldn't be very pleasing for the PAC remainers, but "beggars can't be choosers," and the MWC schools would be thrilled to receive more than twice what they're getting now.

The reconstituted ACC would probably be a lot better off than reconstituted PAC, because it would start out with 10 AAC remainers.

(08-15-2022 11:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  And related, how does adding schools of low valuation help the revenue of the schools in these three conferences?

There's no question that the remainers (especially the remainers of the PAC, which would be hit - by far - the hardest) would take "a haircut" from the standpoint of revenue.

However, ESPN has made it clear - - when it forced the AAC and SBC to add a bunch of CUSA schools - - that quantity has a quality of its own. In other words, adding a bunch of G5 schools will make it possible for the networks to provide the remainders with a reasonable revenue stream.

It may not be as much revenue as they're getting now, but as said above, "beggars can't be choosers." They might be paid half what they're getting now, but half of $35 million ($17.5 million) isn't exactly "chump change." They'll accept it and move on.

.