(02-21-2023 12:22 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(02-20-2023 01:18 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Back to the original OP objective of finding a stable P4. At least for the next dozen years…

B1G @ 16 with USC & UCLA
SEC @ 16 with UT & OU
ACC @ 20+ with Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah & ASU (plus ND as a partial)
B12 @ 16+ with Colorado, Arizona, Oregon State & WSU (plus Gonzaga)

The P2 will still exist, but the ACC and B12 will be thriving.

I don't see those schools joining the ACC.

1. I'm not sure it really solves anyone's problems as the revenue gap would still be significant.

2. I don't see why any PAC schools would sign the current GOR for the ACC. They'd be signing up for a decade plus of status quo finances. Possibly more because if ESPN gives everyone a bump with a new deal then they're going to want to extend that GOR.

No doubt, having 5 power conferences is more likely.

Nevertheless, a PAC contingent could make a play for the ACC because…

1) The ACC will have the broadest exposure and highest media payouts amongst the trio of ACC, B12 and PAC. Based on current information for the next media cycle: ACC media payouts will be in the mid $30s; B12 in the low $30s; and the PAC is struggling to put a deal together. The B1G is not expanding, and hoping for an invitation is not a strategy. In addition, the ACCN provides great exposure for T2 & T3 content…which is desperately needed by brands that are hoping to one day get a P2 invitation.

2) The GOR through 2036 would be a deal killer only if B1G invitations were inevitable. Presidents make decisions based on real options, not wishful thinking. Extending the GOR would need to be a unanimous decision…that is not happening.

(02-22-2023 06:30 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(02-21-2023 12:22 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(02-20-2023 01:18 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Back to the original OP objective of finding a stable P4. At least for the next dozen years…

B1G @ 16 with USC & UCLA
SEC @ 16 with UT & OU
ACC @ 20+ with Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah & ASU (plus ND as a partial)
B12 @ 16+ with Colorado, Arizona, Oregon State & WSU (plus Gonzaga)

The P2 will still exist, but the ACC and B12 will be thriving.

I don't see those schools joining the ACC.

1. I'm not sure it really solves anyone's problems as the revenue gap would still be significant.

2. I don't see why any PAC schools would sign the current GOR for the ACC. They'd be signing up for a decade plus of status quo finances. Possibly more because if ESPN gives everyone a bump with a new deal then they're going to want to extend that GOR.

No doubt, having 5 power conferences is more likely.

Nevertheless, a PAC contingent could make a play for the ACC because…

1) The ACC will have the broadest exposure and highest media payouts amongst the trio of ACC, B12 and PAC. Based on current information for the next media cycle: ACC media payouts will be in the mid $30s; B12 in the low $30s; and the PAC is struggling to put a deal together. The B1G is not expanding, and hoping for an invitation is not a strategy. In addition, the ACCN provides great exposure for T2 & T3 content…which is desperately needed by brands that are hoping to one day get a P2 invitation.

2) The GOR through 2036 would be a deal killer only if B1G invitations were inevitable. Presidents make decisions based on real options, not wishful thinking. Extending the GOR would need to be a unanimous decision…that is not happening.

1. True that the ACC will have the broadest exposure. It's not a horrible idea, but it's also a logistical nightmare. It's even more of a stretch than USC and UCLA going to the Big Ten. For one, there's a significantly better contract involved with the latter move. Secondly, even then the travel isn't as bad. Most of the Big Ten is spread out across the Midwest whereas virtually the entire ACC is based out of East Coast states.

2. Hope is not a strategy, that is correct, but neither is limiting your options. It's fairly obvious at this point that some in the ACC are regretting the fact they signed that deal. You seem to agree with that by suggesting an extension will not happen, but therein lies part of the problem. You think ESPN is going to go along with that? If the ACC gets more money then it's going to have to come from ESPN. They're not even going to have the benefit of taking the contract to market...ESPN will still be the sole media partner. That means their existing contract sets the terms.

They wanted a GOR to solidify the ACC back in 2013. They wanted an extension just to create the ACC Network. I don't see them just offering a good bump to the ACC without something else. They have too much leverage.

For all the people saying that no member of the ACC can get out of the GOR without paying through the nose, I don't see how these two goals are congruent. If ESPN has the leverage, they'll use it. That's true whether we're talking about schools leaving or being added.

Let's also consider that it's quite likely several ACC schools would not vote for these additions. You're talking about maximizing travel and the return will be limited. That's what I mean when I say this doesn't really solve anyone's problem. Even if everyone makes more money, is it a worthwhile boost? An expanded ACC is still not in the same ballpark with the SEC or Big Ten.

We know the Big Ten is not expanding now, but we don't know they won't change their mind in 5-6 years when their next deal is on the market. If these PAC schools sign onto the ACC, they will be stuck for another 6 years after THAT point. That's doubly true because even if we assume the ACC gets a decent bump out of a move like this, there's literally nothing left on the table in another 5 to 6 years...nobody would be moving to the ACC during that timeframe that would add any value whatsoever unless we're talking some wide scale merger with the Big 12.

Making a long term commitment to the ACC in the here and now is too extreme a position. There's too much that is unknown for these schools to make that move right now and that's assuming they're a shoe-in to get approved.

Right now there are 69 P schools.
Will everybody be included if we shrink to 4 conferences, or will the number of schools increase in the P ranks to give us a number that is divisible by 4 (72)?
If we do move to 72 which schools could qualify to be included in the three additional?
Will those conferences need to be symmetrical to accommodate an expanded playoff formula?
Would the B1G and SEC dare to try to expand again before they have even welcomed their newest members?
Right now, FOX and ESPN control the B1G, ACC, SEC and the Big 12, is there enough value left in the west coast to warrant another media player to want to enter the market (that has any experience in broadcasting college sports)?

Conferences aren't striving for symmetry, there is no magic number nor is there a magic number of conferences. We all think of P5 or Autonomy 5 but the SEC cannibalized the Big 12 and the Big 10 cannibalized the Pac 12 and virtually everyone on this board believes either or both will do the same with the ACC. The ACC, Pac 12, and Big 12 may have the same NCAA voting rights as the Big Ten and the SEC but the Big Ten and SEC have all the money. We have a P2 right now and it's clear Florida State and Clemson with their public remarks want out. The idea of a P4 and all four equal will never happen, the Big 10 and SEC have no intention of staying equal with the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12. If the SEC had their way, there wouldn't be a P2, there would be a P1! Same with the Big Ten!

Frankly, I wished all GOR's just ceased to exist for a 3 month period. Let everyone move that wants to move, or is being invited to another conference and just get this BS over with. It's tiresome and frankly it's killed whatever enthusiasm I had for CFB. The sooner the game dies, the better.

(02-21-2023 12:22 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(02-20-2023 01:18 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Back to the original OP objective of finding a stable P4. At least for the next dozen years…

B1G @ 16 with USC & UCLA
SEC @ 16 with UT & OU
ACC @ 20+ with Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah & ASU (plus ND as a partial)
B12 @ 16+ with Colorado, Arizona, Oregon State & WSU (plus Gonzaga)

The P2 will still exist, but the ACC and B12 will be thriving.

I don't see those schools joining the ACC.

1. I'm not sure it really solves anyone's problems as the revenue gap would still be significant.

2. I don't see why any PAC schools would sign the current GOR for the ACC. They'd be signing up for a decade plus of status quo finances. Possibly more because if ESPN gives everyone a bump with a new deal then they're going to want to extend that GOR.

Agreed. Especially with regard to Oregon and Washington.

(02-27-2023 06:46 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Conferences aren't striving for symmetry, there is no magic number nor is there a magic number of conferences. We all think of P5 or Autonomy 5 but the SEC cannibalized the Big 12 and the Big 10 cannibalized the Pac 12 and virtually everyone on this board believes either or both will do the same with the ACC. The ACC, Pac 12, and Big 12 may have the same NCAA voting rights as the Big Ten and the SEC but the Big Ten and SEC have all the money. We have a P2 right now and it's clear Florida State and Clemson with their public remarks want out. The idea of a P4 and all four equal will never happen, the Big 10 and SEC have no intention of staying equal with the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12. If the SEC had their way, there wouldn't be a P2, there would be a P1! Same with the Big Ten!

But that is one reason the Mezzanine 3 should probably become an M2 and will need to be similar size to the P2. The Big 12 in 2015 knew that being 10 with a bunch of 14 team conferences didn't make sense long term. But ESPN and Fox fought them expanding. But consolidating instead of adding G5 schools would not be the same impediment to the networks.

Getting down to one conference of P5 leftovers benefits all of the schools that make it into the 3rd conference. Due to central location and being first to undergo poaching by P2, the Big 12 year as always the front runner to becoming that.

There being a single middle class is more beneficial than the marginal revenue/school deltas of permutations of two or three middle class conferences

The Big 12 should be working with espn and Fox to be the slack conference needed to get there— add PAC, then liquidate the ACC, with ACC Network converted to Big 12 Network.

If 6 ACC schools go to P2, what’s left would maintain most of ACCN markets, while adding many good sized college sports centric markets of Big 16.

WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pitt, Cuse, BC, NCST, Wake, GT, Miami, UCF, Houston

Iowa St, KU, KSU, Ok St, CU, Utah, AZ ASU, Baylor, Tech, TCU, BYU

Basically two conferences sharing a repurposed network under the Big 12 lineage and name- but the name isn’t important. It’s the consolidation that matters. These peer conferences need to have self awareness they’re peers and consolidate. Being the only other conference outside of P2 with auto CFP access, and critical mass of strong basketball is the only tenable structure

It also functions as a buffer between BIG and SEC, with southern schools that the SEC doesn’t really want not ending up in BIG. Like Miami, GT etc.

SDSU could just as easily be in if missteps are made by a 4C school, or if Cal or Oregon don’t get Big 10 invites. Again at expense of a 4C (Utah or ASU imo)

(02-27-2023 01:49 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Getting down to one conference of P5 leftovers benefits all of the schools that make it into the 3rd conference. Due to central location and being first to undergo poaching by P2, the Big 12 year as always the front runner to becoming that.

There being a single middle class is more beneficial than the marginal revenue/school deltas of permutations of two or three middle class conferences

The Big 12 should be working with espn and Fox to be the slack conference needed to get there— add PAC, then liquidate the ACC, with ACC Network converted to Big 12 Network.

If 6 ACC schools go to P2, what’s left would maintain most of ACCN markets, while adding many good sized college sports centric markets of Big 16.

WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pitt, Cuse, BC, NCST, Wake, GT, Miami, UCF, Houston

Iowa St, KU, KSU, Ok St, CU, Utah, AZ ASU, Baylor, Tech, TCU, BYU

Basically two conferences sharing a repurposed network under the Big 12 lineage and name- but the name isn’t important. It’s the consolidation that matters. These peer conferences need to have self awareness they’re peers and consolidate. Being the only other conference outside of P2 with auto CFP access, and critical mass of strong basketball is the only tenable structure

It also functions as a buffer between BIG and SEC, with southern schools that the SEC doesn’t really want not ending up in BIG. Like Miami, GT etc.

SDSU could just as easily be in if missteps are made by a 4C school, or if Cal or Oregon don’t get Big 10 invites. Again at expense of a 4C (Utah or ASU imo)

Eff that lineup... I'll never watch cfb again. I barely watch now. It's complete dogshit.

(02-27-2023 04:38 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  

(02-27-2023 01:49 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Getting down to one conference of P5 leftovers benefits all of the schools that make it into the 3rd conference. Due to central location and being first to undergo poaching by P2, the Big 12 year as always the front runner to becoming that.

There being a single middle class is more beneficial than the marginal revenue/school deltas of permutations of two or three middle class conferences

The Big 12 should be working with espn and Fox to be the slack conference needed to get there— add PAC, then liquidate the ACC, with ACC Network converted to Big 12 Network.

If 6 ACC schools go to P2, what’s left would maintain most of ACCN markets, while adding many good sized college sports centric markets of Big 16.

WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pitt, Cuse, BC, NCST, Wake, GT, Miami, UCF, Houston

Iowa St, KU, KSU, Ok St, CU, Utah, AZ ASU, Baylor, Tech, TCU, BYU

Basically two conferences sharing a repurposed network under the Big 12 lineage and name- but the name isn’t important. It’s the consolidation that matters. These peer conferences need to have self awareness they’re peers and consolidate. Being the only other conference outside of P2 with auto CFP access, and critical mass of strong basketball is the only tenable structure

It also functions as a buffer between BIG and SEC, with southern schools that the SEC doesn’t really want not ending up in BIG. Like Miami, GT etc.

SDSU could just as easily be in if missteps are made by a 4C school, or if Cal or Oregon don’t get Big 10 invites. Again at expense of a 4C (Utah or ASU imo)

Eff that lineup... I'll never watch cfb again. I barely watch now. It's complete dogshit.

Barely watching now is the inherent weakness of the coastal based conferences. Too many schools with weak fanbases. Pitt fan? Yeah, the awful ratings of that Pitt-Wake title game is going to be an anchor in negotiations

Appeasing those that barely watch is a losing proposition. Not a demographic to go long on.

(02-27-2023 04:38 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  

(02-27-2023 01:49 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Getting down to one conference of P5 leftovers benefits all of the schools that make it into the 3rd conference. Due to central location and being first to undergo poaching by P2, the Big 12 year as always the front runner to becoming that.

There being a single middle class is more beneficial than the marginal revenue/school deltas of permutations of two or three middle class conferences

The Big 12 should be working with espn and Fox to be the slack conference needed to get there— add PAC, then liquidate the ACC, with ACC Network converted to Big 12 Network.

If 6 ACC schools go to P2, what’s left would maintain most of ACCN markets, while adding many good sized college sports centric markets of Big 16.

WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pitt, Cuse, BC, NCST, Wake, GT, Miami, UCF, Houston

Iowa St, KU, KSU, Ok St, CU, Utah, AZ ASU, Baylor, Tech, TCU, BYU

Basically two conferences sharing a repurposed network under the Big 12 lineage and name- but the name isn’t important. It’s the consolidation that matters. These peer conferences need to have self awareness they’re peers and consolidate. Being the only other conference outside of P2 with auto CFP access, and critical mass of strong basketball is the only tenable structure

It also functions as a buffer between BIG and SEC, with southern schools that the SEC doesn’t really want not ending up in BIG. Like Miami, GT etc.

SDSU could just as easily be in if missteps are made by a 4C school, or if Cal or Oregon don’t get Big 10 invites. Again at expense of a 4C (Utah or ASU imo)

Eff that lineup... I'll never watch cfb again. I barely watch now. It's complete dogshit.

Panther I'm curious, why don't you like that lineup? I'm guessing most Pitt fans don't live and breathe for the occasional games against FSU & Clemson, and with the addition of WVU that actually gets you back to an annual Backyard Brawl. Is it regular games with the schools west of the Mississippi you don't want?

(02-27-2023 08:42 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-27-2023 04:38 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  

(02-27-2023 01:49 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Getting down to one conference of P5 leftovers benefits all of the schools that make it into the 3rd conference. Due to central location and being first to undergo poaching by P2, the Big 12 year as always the front runner to becoming that.

There being a single middle class is more beneficial than the marginal revenue/school deltas of permutations of two or three middle class conferences

The Big 12 should be working with espn and Fox to be the slack conference needed to get there— add PAC, then liquidate the ACC, with ACC Network converted to Big 12 Network.

If 6 ACC schools go to P2, what’s left would maintain most of ACCN markets, while adding many good sized college sports centric markets of Big 16.

WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pitt, Cuse, BC, NCST, Wake, GT, Miami, UCF, Houston

Iowa St, KU, KSU, Ok St, CU, Utah, AZ ASU, Baylor, Tech, TCU, BYU

Basically two conferences sharing a repurposed network under the Big 12 lineage and name- but the name isn’t important. It’s the consolidation that matters. These peer conferences need to have self awareness they’re peers and consolidate. Being the only other conference outside of P2 with auto CFP access, and critical mass of strong basketball is the only tenable structure

It also functions as a buffer between BIG and SEC, with southern schools that the SEC doesn’t really want not ending up in BIG. Like Miami, GT etc.

SDSU could just as easily be in if missteps are made by a 4C school, or if Cal or Oregon don’t get Big 10 invites. Again at expense of a 4C (Utah or ASU imo)

Eff that lineup... I'll never watch cfb again. I barely watch now. It's complete dogshit.

Panther I'm curious, why don't you like that lineup? I'm guessing most Pitt fans don't live and breathe for the occasional games against FSU & Clemson, and with the addition of WVU that actually gets you back to an annual Backyard Brawl. Is it regular games with the schools west of the Mississippi you don't want?

Occasional games against Clemson and FSU replaced by regular games old Big East peers would be good for Pitt’s decaying fan base

Although I’m guessing the conference schedule will increase once conferences are 20+, Pitt wouldn’t likely play west of Mississippi too much, given western schools would also need to go to Pitt. The 3rd conference will do what networks tell them though.