(06-07-2022 08:44 AM)Jugnaut Wrote: Russia will win this conflict and take a seizable chunk of territory from Ukraine. They haven't even committed a large portion of their troops or declared war on Ukraine. If they declared war, they could draft millions of men to fight and steamroll Ukraine. If Russia was on serious jeopardy of "losing" this conflict, I'd expect them to drop a small tactical nuke on Kyiv to finish the conflict. They know the West is too afraid of nuclear war to do anything about it. Ukraine is punching above it's weight, but it's experienced fighters are being slaughtered in the east. They are being replaced with green recruits from the west. Russia is winning the slow grind.
Russia has already committed the vast majority of its active combat troops. Early estimates were that Russia committed 190,000 troops to Ukraine, and there are currently 110 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine.
The entire Russian Army (including conscripts) is about 280,000 combat troops, formed into 168 battalion tactical groups. Of that, about 50,000-60,000 are absolutely required elsewhere:
20,000 - Chechnya
12,000 - Kaliningrad (a Russian exclave on the Baltic that is completely surrounded by Lithuania and Poland).
10,000 - Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia)
5,000 - Armenia / Azerbaijan
5,000 - Tajikistan
4,000 - Syria
1,000 - Moldova (Transnistria)
Even if they had zero combat losses (unlikely), Russia doesn't have a lot of trained reserves left to throw into the fight.
However, I agree with you that Ukraine is unlikely to "win." Russia is a far larger country and their leaders are committed to this fight. And it will be very difficult to dislodge Russia from the gains they have already made, particularly in areas where they have some popular support from the people.