RE: Dennis Dodd: Big 12 planning to split into two seven-team divisions for 2023
OK, let's approach the 12-team divisional alignment in as logical a manner as possible:
Given the geographic spread of the conference in terms of longitude, it makes sense to have East and West divisions, with the 3 Eastern time zone schools in the East and the Mountain time zone school in the West. The Central time zone teams could go either East or West.
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia
West: BYU
A reasonable assumption is that the non-Texas schools will want equitable access to Texas, with emphasis on the large urban areas in which Houston and TCU in particular reside. This means 2 Texas schools per division, and Houston and TCU can't share a division, nor can Baylor and Texas Tech.
Another reasonable assumption is that the Kansas schools will want to be together in the same division. This can't be the East division because then there wouldn't be enough room for 2 Texas schools. So they've got to be in the West.
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia
West: BYU, Kansas, Kansas State
With 3 non-Texas schools plus 2 Texas schools already pegged for each division, the 2 other schools (ISU and OSU) can't be in the same division. Kansas has by far the weakest FB program, so perhaps we place OSU, arguably the strongest remaining Big 12 school in FB, in the West to balance things out competitively.
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa State, West Virginia
West: BYU, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Now there are 4 possible arrangements of the Texas schools:
1) BU/UH in East + TCU/TT in West
2) TCU/TT in East + BU/UH in West
3) BU/TCU in East + UH/TT in West
4) UH/TT in East + BU/TCU in West
So as to have 2 new members in each division (which is not exactly necessary but still nice), that means Houston would have to be in the West and, consequently, TCU in the East, leaving only options 2 and 3.
Baylor and TCU have both been stronger over the past several years in FB than Houston and Texas Tech, at least by Sagarin rating, so there's some sense in separating Baylor and TCU. Also there's a certain balance in having one public Texas school and one private Texas school in each division. So Baylor to the West and TT to the East.
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
West: Baylor, BYU, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
This in turn means that during any season in which OUT overlap with the new members, OU would be in the West and UT in the East. (OU has 2 "must play" opponents in OSU and UT and so with a max of one protected crossover, OU must share a division with one of them.)
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
West: Baylor, BYU, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Who knows if it'll turn out this way, but that's the best I've got!
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2022 06:29 PM by Nerdlinger.)
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