(11-23-2021 08:53 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  Game of the year. Instant classic. So many what-ifs just in the last 2 minutes. You could dissect about 50 plays in that game and find an inch here or there that changes everything. It was that close. I kinda think that UAB's LB knocks that ball down if there hadn't been the bad snap, which led him to step up a couple of steps and then try to recover. Wilder still almost made a hell of a play to get a hand on it but UTSA TE made the tougher-than-it-looked catch that will never be forgotten by UTSA fans. If they played 10 times, I think they'd split 5-5. Every game would be good, too.

UTSA and UAB are built very similarly and have very similar talent, team cultures and experiences. I think the coaches are very similar too. Neither team quit and both are tough as nails. Lots of strong leadership all over the field. We haven't seen the last of these kinds of games between them. Disappointed as they are now, most UAB fans I've talked to appreciate and respect what UTSA is building.

Very possible. Or if there's no bobble and the TE is covered, does Harris throw to someone else, or maybe just try to scramble into the end zone? It'll be interesting to see if the WKU/Marshall game is as good as this one was. I'm going to Denton to see our next game, and will want to head back to the hotel room ASAP to try and catch the tail end of that game.

(11-23-2021 09:30 AM)Volkmar Wrote:  

(11-23-2021 01:16 AM)ShrackUAB Wrote:  

(11-23-2021 12:37 AM)Volkmar Wrote:  

(11-22-2021 08:50 PM)ShrackUAB Wrote:  I would argue against this as most people were complaining about the call immediately, not after the result. It was a boneheaded mistake. Math dictates that if you go for it with inches left and your main back is averaging 6 yards a carry that you're likely going to get it. Actually, every UAB running back was averaging at least 6 yards a carry in the game. UAB running backs only had 7 plays out of 31 that went for 0 or negative yardage all game. So, 77.4% chance for positive yardage. You sacrifice potentially 30-35 yards on defense if you miss for a 77% chance of automatically winning the game...and you only need to get literal inches. The vast majority of non UAB/UTSA fans can see that UAB gave that game away.

That doesn't take away what UTSA has done. UTSA is having a special year and sometimes you just need the other team to bail you out. Happened to us in years past. And frankly we don't deserve to win these games or be the division champion averaging 100 yards of penalty per game. Ridiculous

I can appreciate someone who does the math and throws percentages and such into the discussion because I'm a retired math teacher. So I wanted to add one more thing to my previous response to your post in lieu of those percentages you provided.

I did some research and found that when teams have a 4th and 1 or less, they actually convert nearly 70% of the time. The data I found for that pertained to the NFL, but I would imagine the number wouldn't be very different for college.

I also came across an analysis of how scoring is related to field position though. And in the analysis, it was found that teams starting at about their own 25-yard line scored a touchdown on the possession roughly 18% of the time. Time was not an element thrown into the analysis though, and I would expect that 18% number to actually be around 10% or less if the team had only a minute to score with no remaining time-outs. I linked it below, and though I believe it also pertained to the NFL, as with the other, I would also expect it to be similar for college.

So what we had on that 4th down play was essentially this... You have about a 70% chance of making it if you go for it, but you have at least a 90% chance of keeping your opponent from scoring a TD if you punt it, and force them to go 75 or more yards with only a minute to go and no time-outs.

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/...oring.html

You still have to calculate the risk in comparison to the opponent instead being on your 42 yard line vs the 75ish yard line. It wasn't as simple as either you get the conversion and win or don't and auto lose. You either get the conversion at a 70% clip AND the opponent then has to score a TD from your 42 yard line for you to lose the game, or you concede the 70% chance of auto-winning the game and the opponent has to score from their own 20ish yard line (I think 23 yard line in this case).

So, at least a 70% chance of automatically winning the game and if you fail, the opponent still has to drive 42 yards to win. Or the opponent has to drive 77 yards to win. Of course Clark had no idea where the punt would land.

For touchdown results by starting position I see according to bcftoys (204,802 college FBS offensive drives):

Own 23 yard line: 21.9% chance of scoring a TD
Opponent 42 yard line: 39.2% chance of scoring a TD

Given we have a 70% chance of auto winning the game (honestly, converting the inches would be much higher probability than this) if we try to convert the 4th and inches, 70% to win + 18.24%/30% chance to win if you have to stop a touchdown drive at the 42 yard line:

With Clark's decision to punt: 78.1% chance of winning the game.
Going for the conversion: 88.24% chance of winning the game.

So unless I'm doing the math wrong, pretty big difference there and just overall a dumb decision, especially considering the running game success. And again, I think this is worst case scenario, the conversion would probably have an even higher conversion clip.

Also, even if the punt managed to land at UTSA's 1 yard line: 86.1% chance of winning the game (only a 13.9% chance of scoring a TD at your own 1 yard line)

Of course you still have to factor in time remaining and everything else (though that would still apply to the 42 yard drive versus 77), but obviously this is about as close as we can get. I imagine the stats still lean towards trying to convert the 4th and inches regardless.

Edit: and just being honest here, the chances of converting something like 2-4 inches is probably around 90% in this game. So you're probably talking something like a 96% chance to win the game on going for the 4th down conversion versus a 78% chance to win with the punt. It's even worse when you take in where the ball actually was. Clark's decision improved UTSA's odds of winning dramatically.

Yeah, your math is off. You don't add percentages, you multiply them. Mine was off too though because I failed to take the combination of UTSA getting the stop AND then scoring into account.

So here it goes...lol...

UAB goes for it
UTSA's chance of stopping a 4th and 1 or less is about 30% (.300).
UTSA's chance of scoring from around the UAB 42 is then about 35% (.350)
Taken together, .300 x .350 = .105
That makes about a 10.5% chance of a UTSA win if UAB goes for it.

UAB punts
UTSA's chance of going 77 yards for a TD is about 18% (.180). But as I said, that chance goes down significantly with a caveat of only having a minute to score with 0 time-outs. That's the part I can only estimate, and my estimate was that it would bring the 18% down to around 10%.

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So we're looking at a 10% chance for a UTSA win if UAB goes for it, and a 10% chance for a UTSA win if they punt. They're virtually identical. The only thing I can't account for, as I can't find the data on it, is the chance of UTSA taking over where they did on the punt. In looking at the Net Punting FBS Database though, it appears the 40-yard punt that UAB had is almost exactly what the NCAA net average is, so while I could be wrong, I don't believe that would change anything in the numbers.

https://www.footballdb.com/college-footb...rt=puntnet

No, my math was correct. You only multiply in UTSA's case because they need both things to happen to win. UAB only needs step 1 to happen to win the game. And obviously if you multiplied UAB's chances in your case: .70 x .55 = 38.5%. UAB's chance to win the game in that made up scenario isn't 38.5. It is 89.5%.

0.7 + 0.3*0.65 = 89.5% (UTSA's is 10.5%)