I was at the game and I went to the UTSA/Rice game. UTSA completely dominated Rice. After the first half of the UAB game, I could not comprehend how Rice beat UAB. UTSA couldn't stop UAB in the first half. It's weird how the transitive property of wins just doesn't work at all.

(11-21-2021 06:27 PM)jarmzet Wrote:  I was at the game and I went to the UTSA/Rice game. UTSA completely dominated Rice. After the first half of the UAB game, I could not comprehend how Rice beat UAB. UTSA couldn't stop UAB in the first half. It's weird how the transitive property of wins just doesn't work at all.

Their QB played really well (the starter; if they'd given more plays to the guy whose dad and brother were NFL stars we'd have won by 60). Their RB Broussard drank some magic potion that turned him into Earl Campbell every third time he carried the ball. The other two he went down like a six-year-old girl, but when he drank his spinach he shook off 11 tacklers like a wet hound dog.

That, and we committed like 112 penalties.

(11-21-2021 05:30 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Watched the game, good game. There is no right or wrong answer. If UAB goes for it and don't get it, they are basically handing UTSA the game. UTSA probably sells out on the run on 4th down, sending basically all 11 men and maybe gets a stop there. You have to understand, it's not like a normal play where there are 5 or 6 men in the box. UTSA probably sends the house on 4th down, like bring the mascot, band, everyone.

There are plays made for such a thing when a team brings the house. You send 11 men the offense simply sends a TE in the flat or flare out for a yard or two. But it was a chain link away from the first down. If you're offense can't figure out how to get an inch for a first down then your team doesn't deserve to win.

(11-21-2021 01:48 PM)papa_dawg Wrote:  Super lazy to criticize Bill Clark for punting, if he went for it, got stuffed and still lost you'd be complaining that he didn't punt. The fact is your defense let UTSA drive 75 yards in under a minute with no timeouts. Given the way the defense had been playing it wasn't a terrible call, it was terrible execution and UTSA deserves credit for an incredible game-winning drive.

Yep!

(11-21-2021 09:52 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 01:48 PM)papa_dawg Wrote:  Super lazy to criticize Bill Clark for punting, if he went for it, got stuffed and still lost you'd be complaining that he didn't punt. The fact is your defense let UTSA drive 75 yards in under a minute with no timeouts. Given the way the defense had been playing it wasn't a terrible call, it was terrible execution and UTSA deserves credit for an incredible game-winning drive.

Yep!

I think it was a bad decision to rely on our defense to win us the game when they already felt like they had done so on the previous drive. What a letdown to a tired, exhausted defense to find out that what you did to secure our victory wasn't enough because our offense couldn't gave 10 yards when they needed to most. We should've gone for it for multiple reasons, but not having a frustrated/tired defense be put back into the pressure cooker was definitely one of the biggest ones.

(11-22-2021 11:00 AM)demiveeman Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 09:52 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 01:48 PM)papa_dawg Wrote:  Super lazy to criticize Bill Clark for punting, if he went for it, got stuffed and still lost you'd be complaining that he didn't punt. The fact is your defense let UTSA drive 75 yards in under a minute with no timeouts. Given the way the defense had been playing it wasn't a terrible call, it was terrible execution and UTSA deserves credit for an incredible game-winning drive.

Yep!

I think it was a bad decision to rely on our defense to win us the game when they already felt like they had done so on the previous drive. What a letdown to a tired, exhausted defense to find out that what you did to secure our victory wasn't enough because our offense couldn't gave 10 yards when they needed to most. We should've gone for it for multiple reasons, but not having a frustrated/tired defense be put back into the pressure cooker was definitely one of the biggest ones.

Your defense may have felt that way, but truthfully, the ref gave them a lifeline when he ruled the catch (with both feet in and the left foot even dragging) by Franklin at your 30-yard line with 2 minutes left to be out of bounds. We may not be having this discussion if that were rightfully called a reception.

As others have said though, I'd be willing to bet that most of the people complaining about your coach's decision, would've also been complaining if he had gone for it, gotten stuffed, and given it up to us near your own 40 instead of trying to pin us deep with no timeouts remaining.

And as a final comment on this, since it's going around in circles now at this point, everyone's talking about 4th down but if your offense had gotten that first down on the 3rd down play, we also wouldn't be having this discussion. Our defense, which may have even been more tired than yours given the time of possession in the game, got the stop it needed when it needed to, but seem to be getting little credit for it from some of you who say the game was "given away". I'm done now; on to UNT.

Congrats UTSA! What a game Saturday. You all are having a season that many envy. As much as we felt like we could have won/should have won, you took it. From a football fan's perspective, probably one of the best games ever in C-USA and definitely the best this season. Two good teams, heavy weight fight. Punches and counter-punches. Finish this season the right way and see you next year.

Congrats Roadrunners! We couldn’t “Come and Take It” this year. I hope y’all win out.

(11-21-2021 01:14 AM)Blazer4Life14 Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 01:08 AM)rook360 Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 12:42 AM)Blazer4Life14 Wrote:  I don’t think many fans will deny that Bill Clark is a UAB legend, and the godfather of UAB football… but we’ve hit our ceiling with him. Every year, it’ll be 8-9 wins, with no meaningful OOC results, with conference championships sprinkled in there every couple years, not to mention playing uber-conservative and be top in the nation in penalties. We’re never taking that next step with this coaching staff around. But some fans are just content with “Hey, at least we have a team now.” The goal should be to get better every year. Do I need to remind Blazer fans that this was supposed to be the best UAB team ever? That’s incredibly laughable now.

Sounding a little like you're about to go the path of Jeff Bower. Ask USM how that's going. Clark made fearful move and lost it. He's gotta work on the penalties and improving the offense and not putting it all on the defense and it showed tonight. Other than that, the ceiling and OOC talk is out of immediate frustration.
As paying fans we have every right to be critical at times, but let's not get melodramatic.

They got Larry Fedora, who took them to pretty good heights. It was after that that they messed up.

But hey, if you’re afraid to take risks, then Clark is the guy for you. Just don’t be complaining when there’s only 15k (on a good day) in Protective Stadium because he’s not pulling in any new fans/donors.

Also, how long have we been saying “he needs to work on the penalties”? And what’s our best OOC win under Clark? Tulane? Is that where we want the bar to permanently be?

THE REASON Clark should have taken the first good gig he could have if he was offered. It is on him in a way.

Go for it on 4th and inches. You make it, they can’t get the ball back…

The game is won at the LOS. More of us can live with losing there than willingly giving the ball back.

(11-22-2021 11:19 AM)Volkmar Wrote:  

(11-22-2021 11:00 AM)demiveeman Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 09:52 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 01:48 PM)papa_dawg Wrote:  Super lazy to criticize Bill Clark for punting, if he went for it, got stuffed and still lost you'd be complaining that he didn't punt. The fact is your defense let UTSA drive 75 yards in under a minute with no timeouts. Given the way the defense had been playing it wasn't a terrible call, it was terrible execution and UTSA deserves credit for an incredible game-winning drive.

Yep!

I think it was a bad decision to rely on our defense to win us the game when they already felt like they had done so on the previous drive. What a letdown to a tired, exhausted defense to find out that what you did to secure our victory wasn't enough because our offense couldn't gave 10 yards when they needed to most. We should've gone for it for multiple reasons, but not having a frustrated/tired defense be put back into the pressure cooker was definitely one of the biggest ones.

Your defense may have felt that way, but truthfully, the ref gave them a lifeline when he ruled the catch (with both feet in and the left foot even dragging) by Franklin at your 30-yard line with 2 minutes left to be out of bounds. We may not be having this discussion if that were rightfully called a reception.

As others have said though, I'd be willing to bet that most of the people complaining about your coach's decision, would've also been complaining if he had gone for it, gotten stuffed, and given it up to us near your own 40 instead of trying to pin us deep with no timeouts remaining.

And as a final comment on this, since it's going around in circles now at this point, everyone's talking about 4th down but if your offense had gotten that first down on the 3rd down play, we also wouldn't be having this discussion. Our defense, which may have even been more tired than yours given the time of possession in the game, got the stop it needed when it needed to, but seem to be getting little credit for it from some of you who say the game was "given away". I'm done now; on to UNT.

I would argue against this as most people were complaining about the call immediately, not after the result. It was a boneheaded mistake. Math dictates that if you go for it with inches left and your main back is averaging 6 yards a carry that you're likely going to get it. Actually, every UAB running back was averaging at least 6 yards a carry in the game. UAB running backs only had 7 plays out of 31 that went for 0 or negative yardage all game. So, 77.4% chance for positive yardage. You sacrifice potentially 30-35 yards on defense if you miss for a 77% chance of automatically winning the game...and you only need to get literal inches. The vast majority of non UAB/UTSA fans can see that UAB gave that game away.

That doesn't take away what UTSA has done. UTSA is having a special year and sometimes you just need the other team to bail you out. Happened to us in years past. And frankly we don't deserve to win these games or be the division champion averaging 100 yards of penalty per game. Ridiculous

(11-22-2021 07:03 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 01:14 AM)Blazer4Life14 Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 01:08 AM)rook360 Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 12:42 AM)Blazer4Life14 Wrote:  I don’t think many fans will deny that Bill Clark is a UAB legend, and the godfather of UAB football… but we’ve hit our ceiling with him. Every year, it’ll be 8-9 wins, with no meaningful OOC results, with conference championships sprinkled in there every couple years, not to mention playing uber-conservative and be top in the nation in penalties. We’re never taking that next step with this coaching staff around. But some fans are just content with “Hey, at least we have a team now.” The goal should be to get better every year. Do I need to remind Blazer fans that this was supposed to be the best UAB team ever? That’s incredibly laughable now.

Sounding a little like you're about to go the path of Jeff Bower. Ask USM how that's going. Clark made fearful move and lost it. He's gotta work on the penalties and improving the offense and not putting it all on the defense and it showed tonight. Other than that, the ceiling and OOC talk is out of immediate frustration.
As paying fans we have every right to be critical at times, but let's not get melodramatic.

They got Larry Fedora, who took them to pretty good heights. It was after that that they messed up.

But hey, if you’re afraid to take risks, then Clark is the guy for you. Just don’t be complaining when there’s only 15k (on a good day) in Protective Stadium because he’s not pulling in any new fans/donors.

Also, how long have we been saying “he needs to work on the penalties”? And what’s our best OOC win under Clark? Tulane? Is that where we want the bar to permanently be?

THE REASON Clark should have taken the first good gig he could have if he was offered. It is on him in a way.

Stop trolling and enjoy your 257th QB.

Most people just want to hear Clark actually say YES we have a problem with penalties and he'll evaluate and address that and the offense. Most folks aren't calling for him to go. Mostly only a few are calling for his proverbial head.

(11-22-2021 08:50 PM)ShrackUAB Wrote:  

(11-22-2021 11:19 AM)Volkmar Wrote:  

(11-22-2021 11:00 AM)demiveeman Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 09:52 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 01:48 PM)papa_dawg Wrote:  Super lazy to criticize Bill Clark for punting, if he went for it, got stuffed and still lost you'd be complaining that he didn't punt. The fact is your defense let UTSA drive 75 yards in under a minute with no timeouts. Given the way the defense had been playing it wasn't a terrible call, it was terrible execution and UTSA deserves credit for an incredible game-winning drive.

Yep!

I think it was a bad decision to rely on our defense to win us the game when they already felt like they had done so on the previous drive. What a letdown to a tired, exhausted defense to find out that what you did to secure our victory wasn't enough because our offense couldn't gave 10 yards when they needed to most. We should've gone for it for multiple reasons, but not having a frustrated/tired defense be put back into the pressure cooker was definitely one of the biggest ones.

Your defense may have felt that way, but truthfully, the ref gave them a lifeline when he ruled the catch (with both feet in and the left foot even dragging) by Franklin at your 30-yard line with 2 minutes left to be out of bounds. We may not be having this discussion if that were rightfully called a reception.

As others have said though, I'd be willing to bet that most of the people complaining about your coach's decision, would've also been complaining if he had gone for it, gotten stuffed, and given it up to us near your own 40 instead of trying to pin us deep with no timeouts remaining.

And as a final comment on this, since it's going around in circles now at this point, everyone's talking about 4th down but if your offense had gotten that first down on the 3rd down play, we also wouldn't be having this discussion. Our defense, which may have even been more tired than yours given the time of possession in the game, got the stop it needed when it needed to, but seem to be getting little credit for it from some of you who say the game was "given away". I'm done now; on to UNT.

I would argue against this as most people were complaining about the call immediately, not after the result. It was a boneheaded mistake. Math dictates that if you go for it with inches left and your main back is averaging 6 yards a carry that you're likely going to get it. Actually, every UAB running back was averaging at least 6 yards a carry in the game. UAB running backs only had 7 plays out of 31 that went for 0 or negative yardage all game. So, 77.4% chance for positive yardage. You sacrifice potentially 30-35 yards on defense if you miss for a 77% chance of automatically winning the game...and you only need to get literal inches. The vast majority of non UAB/UTSA fans can see that UAB gave that game away.

That doesn't take away what UTSA has done. UTSA is having a special year and sometimes you just need the other team to bail you out. Happened to us in years past. And frankly we don't deserve to win these games or be the division champion averaging 100 yards of penalty per game. Ridiculous

You guys did run the ball very effectively against us, unexpectedly so. I think your coach deserves credit for seeing something in our D that he could exploit, and I hope we'll address it this week. You guys had around 350 total yards and 24 points at halftime though, but only about 120 yards and 7 points in the second half. So we made some halftime adjustments and UAB wasn't nearly as effective moving the ball in the 2nd half. I think that played into your coach's thoughts as well.

You guys have a helluva team and I have a feeling we're gonna have some good games between our programs going forward though.

(11-22-2021 08:50 PM)ShrackUAB Wrote:  I would argue against this as most people were complaining about the call immediately, not after the result. It was a boneheaded mistake. Math dictates that if you go for it with inches left and your main back is averaging 6 yards a carry that you're likely going to get it. Actually, every UAB running back was averaging at least 6 yards a carry in the game. UAB running backs only had 7 plays out of 31 that went for 0 or negative yardage all game. So, 77.4% chance for positive yardage. You sacrifice potentially 30-35 yards on defense if you miss for a 77% chance of automatically winning the game...and you only need to get literal inches. The vast majority of non UAB/UTSA fans can see that UAB gave that game away.

That doesn't take away what UTSA has done. UTSA is having a special year and sometimes you just need the other team to bail you out. Happened to us in years past. And frankly we don't deserve to win these games or be the division champion averaging 100 yards of penalty per game. Ridiculous

I can appreciate someone who does the math and throws percentages and such into the discussion because I'm a retired math teacher. So I wanted to add one more thing to my previous response to your post in lieu of those percentages you provided.

I did some research and found that when teams have a 4th and 1 or less, they actually convert nearly 70% of the time. The data I found for that pertained to the NFL, but I would imagine the number wouldn't be very different for college.

I also came across an analysis of how scoring is related to field position though. And in the analysis, it was found that teams starting at about their own 25-yard line scored a touchdown on the possession roughly 18% of the time. Elapsed time on the clock was not an element thrown into the analysis though, and I would expect that 18% number to actually be around 10% or less if the team has only a minute to score with no time-outs. I linked it below, and though I believe it also pertained to the NFL, as with the other, I would also expect it to be similar for college.

So what we had on that 4th down play was essentially this... You have about a 70% chance of making it if you go for it, but you have at least a 90% chance of keeping your opponent from scoring a TD if you punt it, and force them to go 75 or more yards with only a minute to go and no time-outs.

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/...oring.html

(11-23-2021 12:37 AM)Volkmar Wrote:  

(11-22-2021 08:50 PM)ShrackUAB Wrote:  I would argue against this as most people were complaining about the call immediately, not after the result. It was a boneheaded mistake. Math dictates that if you go for it with inches left and your main back is averaging 6 yards a carry that you're likely going to get it. Actually, every UAB running back was averaging at least 6 yards a carry in the game. UAB running backs only had 7 plays out of 31 that went for 0 or negative yardage all game. So, 77.4% chance for positive yardage. You sacrifice potentially 30-35 yards on defense if you miss for a 77% chance of automatically winning the game...and you only need to get literal inches. The vast majority of non UAB/UTSA fans can see that UAB gave that game away.

That doesn't take away what UTSA has done. UTSA is having a special year and sometimes you just need the other team to bail you out. Happened to us in years past. And frankly we don't deserve to win these games or be the division champion averaging 100 yards of penalty per game. Ridiculous

I can appreciate someone who does the math and throws percentages and such into the discussion because I'm a retired math teacher. So I wanted to add one more thing to my previous response to your post in lieu of those percentages you provided.

I did some research and found that when teams have a 4th and 1 or less, they actually convert nearly 70% of the time. The data I found for that pertained to the NFL, but I would imagine the number wouldn't be very different for college.

I also came across an analysis of how scoring is related to field position though. And in the analysis, it was found that teams starting at about their own 25-yard line scored a touchdown on the possession roughly 18% of the time. Elapsed time on the clock was not an element thrown into the analysis though, and I would expect that 18% number to actually be around 10% or less if the team has only a minute to score with no time-outs. I linked it below, and though I believe it also pertained to the NFL, as with the other, I would also expect it to be similar for college.

So what we had on that 4th down play was essentially this... You have about a 70% chance of making it if you go for it, but you have at least a 90% chance of keeping your opponent from scoring a TD if you punt it, and force them to go 75 or more yards with only a minute to go and no time-outs.

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/...oring.html

Big difference in a yard or less and a inch. Also you are starting out with a known and at that point in the game the punt was a unknown. Could have had a punt return of 10, 15, 20 yards. Could have made a bad punt off the side of the foot. Could have been a blocked punt. UAB could have committed a personal foul. Late hit. Facemask. Hit out of bounds...

a lot of unknowns before the punt was made and your 18 to 10% is a figure based on a known starting line. I would bet college football is a lot different than the nfl . Also that is a overall number and doesnt account for the team you are playing. UTSA is the 2nd highest scoring team in CUSA and 13th in FBS so that also ups those odds. Most of those odds are based off every down defense and play at the end of the game when you are trying to make sure no one beats you deep...

The defense is playing prevent and that probably why Tom Brady's % is a lot higher than the nfl average

I seriously doubt if the 7 plays out of 31 runs that went for no yards if over 3 went for a inch and maybe even less. The officials are going to mark the ball back if its closer to that line. Doesnt mean the offense didnt gain 5 inches on the play.

Since no player can line up over the center on defense my guess is that 76% goes up to around 90% on a qb sneak when you only need a inch. That's what we are talking about.

Personally I'm glad the game ended the way it did even if it means Western has to play at UTSA. If UAB had won Western probably is hosting the championship game. If Western is going to win the championship and I think thats going to be the case. I rather they do it beating a undefeated ranked team.

Seems like a team that can pass can also run it on UTSA...Western averaged 5.1 a carry and 2nd highest rushing total vs UTSA

(11-23-2021 12:37 AM)Volkmar Wrote:  

(11-22-2021 08:50 PM)ShrackUAB Wrote:  I would argue against this as most people were complaining about the call immediately, not after the result. It was a boneheaded mistake. Math dictates that if you go for it with inches left and your main back is averaging 6 yards a carry that you're likely going to get it. Actually, every UAB running back was averaging at least 6 yards a carry in the game. UAB running backs only had 7 plays out of 31 that went for 0 or negative yardage all game. So, 77.4% chance for positive yardage. You sacrifice potentially 30-35 yards on defense if you miss for a 77% chance of automatically winning the game...and you only need to get literal inches. The vast majority of non UAB/UTSA fans can see that UAB gave that game away.

That doesn't take away what UTSA has done. UTSA is having a special year and sometimes you just need the other team to bail you out. Happened to us in years past. And frankly we don't deserve to win these games or be the division champion averaging 100 yards of penalty per game. Ridiculous

I can appreciate someone who does the math and throws percentages and such into the discussion because I'm a retired math teacher. So I wanted to add one more thing to my previous response to your post in lieu of those percentages you provided.

I did some research and found that when teams have a 4th and 1 or less, they actually convert nearly 70% of the time. The data I found for that pertained to the NFL, but I would imagine the number wouldn't be very different for college.

I also came across an analysis of how scoring is related to field position though. And in the analysis, it was found that teams starting at about their own 25-yard line scored a touchdown on the possession roughly 18% of the time. Time was not an element thrown into the analysis though, and I would expect that 18% number to actually be around 10% or less if the team had only a minute to score with no remaining time-outs. I linked it below, and though I believe it also pertained to the NFL, as with the other, I would also expect it to be similar for college.

So what we had on that 4th down play was essentially this... You have about a 70% chance of making it if you go for it, but you have at least a 90% chance of keeping your opponent from scoring a TD if you punt it, and force them to go 75 or more yards with only a minute to go and no time-outs.

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/...oring.html

You still have to calculate the risk in comparison to the opponent instead being on your 42 yard line vs the 75ish yard line. It wasn't as simple as either you get the conversion and win or don't and auto lose. You either get the conversion at a 70% clip AND the opponent then has to score a TD from your 42 yard line for you to lose the game, or you concede the 70% chance of auto-winning the game and the opponent has to score from their own 20ish yard line (I think 23 yard line in this case).

So, at least a 70% chance of automatically winning the game and if you fail, the opponent still has to drive 42 yards to win. Or the opponent has to drive 77 yards to win. Of course Clark had no idea where the punt would land.

For touchdown results by starting position I see according to bcftoys (204,802 college FBS offensive drives):

Own 23 yard line: 21.9% chance of scoring a TD
Opponent 42 yard line: 39.2% chance of scoring a TD

Given we have a 70% chance of auto winning the game (honestly, converting the inches would be much higher probability than this) if we try to convert the 4th and inches, 70% to win + 18.24%/30% chance to win if you have to stop a touchdown drive at the 42 yard line:

With Clark's decision to punt: 78.1% chance of winning the game.
Going for the conversion: 88.24% chance of winning the game.

So unless I'm doing the math wrong, pretty big difference there and just overall a dumb decision, especially considering the running game success. And again, I think this is worst case scenario, the conversion would probably have an even higher conversion clip.

Also, even if the punt managed to land at UTSA's 1 yard line: 86.1% chance of winning the game (only a 13.9% chance of scoring a TD at your own 1 yard line)

Of course you still have to factor in time remaining and everything else (though that would still apply to the 42 yard drive versus 77), but obviously this is about as close as we can get. I imagine the stats still lean towards trying to convert the 4th and inches regardless.

Edit: and just being honest here, the chances of converting something like 2-4 inches is probably around 90% in this game. So you're probably talking something like a 96% chance to win the game on going for the 4th down conversion versus a 78% chance to win with the punt. It's even worse when you take in where the ball actually was. Clark's decision improved UTSA's odds of winning dramatically.

Game of the year. Instant classic. So many what-ifs just in the last 2 minutes. You could dissect about 50 plays in that game and find an inch here or there that changes everything. It was that close. I kinda think that UAB's LB knocks that ball down if there hadn't been the bad snap, which led him to step up a couple of steps and then try to recover. Wilder still almost made a hell of a play to get a hand on it but UTSA TE made the tougher-than-it-looked catch that will never be forgotten by UTSA fans. If they played 10 times, I think they'd split 5-5. Every game would be good, too.

UTSA and UAB are built very similarly and have very similar talent, team cultures and experiences. I think the coaches are very similar too. Neither team quit and both are tough as nails. Lots of strong leadership all over the field. We haven't seen the last of these kinds of games between them. Disappointed as they are now, most UAB fans I've talked to appreciate and respect what UTSA is building.

(11-23-2021 01:16 AM)ShrackUAB Wrote:  

(11-23-2021 12:37 AM)Volkmar Wrote:  

(11-22-2021 08:50 PM)ShrackUAB Wrote:  I would argue against this as most people were complaining about the call immediately, not after the result. It was a boneheaded mistake. Math dictates that if you go for it with inches left and your main back is averaging 6 yards a carry that you're likely going to get it. Actually, every UAB running back was averaging at least 6 yards a carry in the game. UAB running backs only had 7 plays out of 31 that went for 0 or negative yardage all game. So, 77.4% chance for positive yardage. You sacrifice potentially 30-35 yards on defense if you miss for a 77% chance of automatically winning the game...and you only need to get literal inches. The vast majority of non UAB/UTSA fans can see that UAB gave that game away.

That doesn't take away what UTSA has done. UTSA is having a special year and sometimes you just need the other team to bail you out. Happened to us in years past. And frankly we don't deserve to win these games or be the division champion averaging 100 yards of penalty per game. Ridiculous

I can appreciate someone who does the math and throws percentages and such into the discussion because I'm a retired math teacher. So I wanted to add one more thing to my previous response to your post in lieu of those percentages you provided.

I did some research and found that when teams have a 4th and 1 or less, they actually convert nearly 70% of the time. The data I found for that pertained to the NFL, but I would imagine the number wouldn't be very different for college.

I also came across an analysis of how scoring is related to field position though. And in the analysis, it was found that teams starting at about their own 25-yard line scored a touchdown on the possession roughly 18% of the time. Time was not an element thrown into the analysis though, and I would expect that 18% number to actually be around 10% or less if the team had only a minute to score with no remaining time-outs. I linked it below, and though I believe it also pertained to the NFL, as with the other, I would also expect it to be similar for college.

So what we had on that 4th down play was essentially this... You have about a 70% chance of making it if you go for it, but you have at least a 90% chance of keeping your opponent from scoring a TD if you punt it, and force them to go 75 or more yards with only a minute to go and no time-outs.

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/...oring.html

You still have to calculate the risk in comparison to the opponent instead being on your 42 yard line vs the 75ish yard line. It wasn't as simple as either you get the conversion and win or don't and auto lose. You either get the conversion at a 70% clip AND the opponent then has to score a TD from your 42 yard line for you to lose the game, or you concede the 70% chance of auto-winning the game and the opponent has to score from their own 20ish yard line (I think 23 yard line in this case).

So, at least a 70% chance of automatically winning the game and if you fail, the opponent still has to drive 42 yards to win. Or the opponent has to drive 77 yards to win. Of course Clark had no idea where the punt would land.

For touchdown results by starting position I see according to bcftoys (204,802 college FBS offensive drives):

Own 23 yard line: 21.9% chance of scoring a TD
Opponent 42 yard line: 39.2% chance of scoring a TD

Given we have a 70% chance of auto winning the game (honestly, converting the inches would be much higher probability than this) if we try to convert the 4th and inches, 70% to win + 18.24%/30% chance to win if you have to stop a touchdown drive at the 42 yard line:

With Clark's decision to punt: 78.1% chance of winning the game.
Going for the conversion: 88.24% chance of winning the game.

So unless I'm doing the math wrong, pretty big difference there and just overall a dumb decision, especially considering the running game success. And again, I think this is worst case scenario, the conversion would probably have an even higher conversion clip.

Also, even if the punt managed to land at UTSA's 1 yard line: 86.1% chance of winning the game (only a 13.9% chance of scoring a TD at your own 1 yard line)

Of course you still have to factor in time remaining and everything else (though that would still apply to the 42 yard drive versus 77), but obviously this is about as close as we can get. I imagine the stats still lean towards trying to convert the 4th and inches regardless.

Edit: and just being honest here, the chances of converting something like 2-4 inches is probably around 90% in this game. So you're probably talking something like a 96% chance to win the game on going for the 4th down conversion versus a 78% chance to win with the punt. It's even worse when you take in where the ball actually was. Clark's decision improved UTSA's odds of winning dramatically.

Yeah, your math is off. You don't add percentages, you multiply them. Mine was off too though because I failed to take the combination of UTSA getting the stop AND then scoring into account.

So here it goes...lol...

UAB goes for it
UTSA's chance of stopping a 4th and 1 or less is about 30% (.300).
UTSA's chance of scoring from around the UAB 42 is then about 35% (.350)
Taken together, .300 x .350 = .105
That makes about a 10.5% chance of a UTSA win if UAB goes for it.

UAB punts
UTSA's chance of going 77 yards for a TD is about 18% (.180). But as I said, that chance goes down significantly with a caveat of only having a minute to score with 0 time-outs. That's the part I can only estimate, and my estimate was that it would bring the 18% down to around 10%.

------------

So we're looking at a 10% chance for a UTSA win if UAB goes for it, and a 10% chance for a UTSA win if they punt. They're virtually identical. The only thing I can't account for, as I can't find the data on it, is the chance of UTSA taking over where they did on the punt. In looking at the Net Punting FBS Database though, it appears the 40-yard punt that UAB had is almost exactly what the NCAA net average is, so while I could be wrong, I don't believe that would change anything in the numbers.

https://www.footballdb.com/college-footb...rt=puntnet

Checking in to find this baseball content...

(11-23-2021 08:53 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  Game of the year. Instant classic. So many what-ifs just in the last 2 minutes. You could dissect about 50 plays in that game and find an inch here or there that changes everything. It was that close. I kinda think that UAB's LB knocks that ball down if there hadn't been the bad snap, which led him to step up a couple of steps and then try to recover. Wilder still almost made a hell of a play to get a hand on it but UTSA TE made the tougher-than-it-looked catch that will never be forgotten by UTSA fans. If they played 10 times, I think they'd split 5-5. Every game would be good, too.

UTSA and UAB are built very similarly and have very similar talent, team cultures and experiences. I think the coaches are very similar too. Neither team quit and both are tough as nails. Lots of strong leadership all over the field. We haven't seen the last of these kinds of games between them. Disappointed as they are now, most UAB fans I've talked to appreciate and respect what UTSA is building.

Great post. Couldn't agree more. Much respect to your program. Looking forward to the battles ahead.