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McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #201
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-13-2021 01:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 01:00 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 11:15 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 11:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

So what's the per school per year value of the tv deal? I've looked but can't find that anywhere.

Your guess is as good as ours. If I were to take a ball park estimate I would say that the Sun Belt probably makes similar to what the MAC does. $750k to $1M range. That's just a guess though. Could be lower, who the heck knows.

It's not current AAC money, or even close. However, does anybody really know what the AAC will now be valued at?

I'd be real surprised if i was as much as the MAC. Its peanuts. Even the MAC deal isn't enough above to entice anyone away. CUSA has larger athletic department revenues (which includes subsidies). Not by a lot, but more.

From the pinned thread:

Avg Revenue

01.) Southeastern Conference - 135,212,294
02.) Big Ten Conference - 132,419,763
03.) Big XII Conference - 116,300,857
04.) Atlantic Coast Conference - 110,214,089
05.) Pacific-12 Conference - 104,969,812
06.) Independents - 73,146,377
07.) American Athletic Conference - 56,211,621
08.) Mountain West Conference - 43,828,028
09.) Conference USA - 33,241,920
10.) Mid-American Conference - 31,555,040
11.) Sun Belt Conference - 28,229,148

Those numbers should be revised to conform to the new (presumably fall 2023) conference lineups. What is the AAC average (actually median is more useful) when the recent and forthcoming departures are taken into account? What is the Big 12 average/median when OU and UT are taken out and BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston are added?

Conforming to the new conference memberships (post 2023) would create apples-to-oranges comparisons. Obviously, Texas (with its $220m+ budget) will increase the SEC average while lowering the B12 average…and the changes of Houston, UCF and Cincinnati will decrease both the AAC average (by leaving) and B12 (by entering). The dilemma is that the changes will also force restructuring of the media deals and bowls. The CFP payouts are also being discussed. Plus the B12 expanded it’s overall membership size…forcing a reduction in future per team conference distributions. Many of the remaining eight B12 members have athletic department revenues in the $90m to $115m range…somewhat comparable to the overall PAC average. Yet the remaining eight schools know that 10% to 15% of their budgets are dependent on goodwill from Texas and Oklahoma.
09-13-2021 03:05 PM
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GreenBison Offline
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Post: #202
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 01:36 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 12:35 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 12:34 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  I posted a link that Chattanooga might make a move now. SBC pursued them before. They do have good history of footbaall and men's basketball.

I would rather keep the 12 we have now. JMU might be the ONLY FCS team worth inviting up and keep perceptions up but I think the SBC is beyond that now. They got their eyes on teams like Marshall and Southern Miss I bet.


Chattanooga does have a history with Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

Marshall, UTChattanooga, GaSouthern, and App State were all in the SoCon at the same time back in the day.

But still, Chattanooga is staying FCS.
09-13-2021 03:57 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #203
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Still have to be the top G5 champ for it to mean anything. Essentially, the access bowl now---and eventually the 12 team CFP---treat the G5 as one giant conference with 5 divisions. Thus---its still essentially a 1 in 65 chance of having your season really matter no matter how you split the G5 conferences.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2021 04:15 PM by Attackcoog.)
09-13-2021 04:15 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #204
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-13-2021 04:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Still have to be the top G5 champ for it to mean anything. Essentially, the access bowl now---and eventually the 12 team CFP---treat the G5 as one giant conference with 5 divisions. Thus---its still essentially a 1 in 65 chance of having your season really matter no matter how you split the G5 conferences.

That's why I think the American will try to load up on MWC schools.

6 schools have AAC level resources:

Army, Air Force, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Boise State.

The academies don't make much sense from a playoff standpoint, nor basketball. But those four MWC schools sure do. Put them with SMU, Memphis, South Florida and Temple and you have a clear #6 conference.

Then it's not a question of 1 in 65 but 1 in 12, versus 0 in 50 for the rest of G5.
09-13-2021 04:19 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #205
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-13-2021 03:57 PM)GreenBison Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 01:36 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 12:35 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 12:34 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  I posted a link that Chattanooga might make a move now. SBC pursued them before. They do have good history of footbaall and men's basketball.

I would rather keep the 12 we have now. JMU might be the ONLY FCS team worth inviting up and keep perceptions up but I think the SBC is beyond that now. They got their eyes on teams like Marshall and Southern Miss I bet.


Chattanooga does have a history with Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

Marshall, UTChattanooga, GaSouthern, and App State were all in the SoCon at the same time back in the day.

But still, Chattanooga is staying FCS.


I posted an article recently that Chattanooga might move if they get an invite. So-Con used to be a power conference in football, but they are not now.
09-13-2021 07:35 PM
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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Post: #206
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
No way the Sun Belt is targeting UTC currently.
09-13-2021 07:40 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #207
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-13-2021 04:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 04:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Still have to be the top G5 champ for it to mean anything. Essentially, the access bowl now---and eventually the 12 team CFP---treat the G5 as one giant conference with 5 divisions. Thus---its still essentially a 1 in 65 chance of having your season really matter no matter how you split the G5 conferences.

That's why I think the American will try to load up on MWC schools.

6 schools have AAC level resources:

Army, Air Force, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Boise State.

The academies don't make much sense from a playoff standpoint, nor basketball. But those four MWC schools sure do. Put them with SMU, Memphis, South Florida and Temple and you have a clear #6 conference.

Then it's not a question of 1 in 65 but 1 in 12, versus 0 in 50 for the rest of G5.

This is certainly the picture Aresco is going to paint if he can get an audience with any of those university presidents. The MWC schools could look around and decide they like their odds and travel expenses just fine where they are.

It certainly will prove interesting to see how persuasive Aresco can be. If he can cherry pick the MWC he will have scored a touch down off a busted play. Anything else is a sack for a loss (but on the bright side, not a turnover).
09-13-2021 07:47 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #208
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-13-2021 04:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 04:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Still have to be the top G5 champ for it to mean anything. Essentially, the access bowl now---and eventually the 12 team CFP---treat the G5 as one giant conference with 5 divisions. Thus---its still essentially a 1 in 65 chance of having your season really matter no matter how you split the G5 conferences.

That's why I think the American will try to load up on MWC schools.

6 schools have AAC level resources:

Army, Air Force, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Boise State.

The academies don't make much sense from a playoff standpoint, nor basketball. But those four MWC schools sure do. Put them with SMU, Memphis, South Florida and Temple and you have a clear #6 conference.

Then it's not a question of 1 in 65 but 1 in 12, versus 0 in 50 for the rest of G5.

That's based on an assumption that I think is incorrect: The assumption that exactly zero of those 50 (or however many) other G teams will ever produce a football team good enough to be the highest ranked G team.

The history of the sport from the start of the BCS until now says that assumption is dubious. The consensus in the sport was that WAC football was worthless after the MWC teams defected, but the post-MWC version of the WAC earned a BCS spot in 3 seasons (Boise twice and Hawai'i once). CFB media and fans today tend to look down on the MAC, but the MAC had an "access" representative (Western Michigan) and the Sun Belt barely missed on one last season (Coastal Carolina). For that matter, Coastal Carolina looks good enough as a program to have a good chance at being an "access" team sooner rather than later (and no doubt there are other teams whose fans think their chances are as good as Coastal's).
09-13-2021 08:23 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #209
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-13-2021 04:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Still have to be the top G5 champ for it to mean anything. Essentially, the access bowl now---and eventually the 12 team CFP---treat the G5 as one giant conference with 5 divisions. Thus---its still essentially a 1 in 65 chance of having your season really matter no matter how you split the G5 conferences.

Some conferences are better than others. Saying 1 in 65 is like saying that an SEC team has the same odds as a PAC-12 team of making the playoffs. Winning some conferences is better than winning others.
09-14-2021 11:33 AM
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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Post: #210
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-14-2021 11:33 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 04:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Still have to be the top G5 champ for it to mean anything. Essentially, the access bowl now---and eventually the 12 team CFP---treat the G5 as one giant conference with 5 divisions. Thus---its still essentially a 1 in 65 chance of having your season really matter no matter how you split the G5 conferences.

Some conferences are better than others. Saying 1 in 65 is like saying that an SEC team has the same odds as a PAC-12 team of making the playoffs. Winning some conferences is better than winning others.

Yeah but if the SEC lost Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and people knew that Auburn and LSU wanted out it wouldn't be near as attractive. Same if B1G lost Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State and people knew that Wisconsin and Michigan State wanted out.

How large an advantage the AAC will come down to who they add and how much they salvage in TV revenue.
09-14-2021 11:45 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #211
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-14-2021 11:45 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 11:33 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 04:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Still have to be the top G5 champ for it to mean anything. Essentially, the access bowl now---and eventually the 12 team CFP---treat the G5 as one giant conference with 5 divisions. Thus---its still essentially a 1 in 65 chance of having your season really matter no matter how you split the G5 conferences.

Some conferences are better than others. Saying 1 in 65 is like saying that an SEC team has the same odds as a PAC-12 team of making the playoffs. Winning some conferences is better than winning others.

Yeah but if the SEC lost Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and people knew that Auburn and LSU wanted out it wouldn't be near as attractive. Same if B1G lost Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State and people knew that Wisconsin and Michigan State wanted out.

How large an advantage the AAC will come down to who they add and how much they salvage in TV revenue.

Not the best comparison as the best team in the AAC has fluctuated more year in and out than the best team in the SEC, and we all know that Alabama (like Texas in the Big 12) represents a ridiculously large share of the total conference value. Houston might be 1.5x the value of Tulsa, but they weren't 60% of the total conference media value like Texas is with the Big 12.

In the years since the AAC was formed, the top team has been the top team in the G5 in all year but one, no matter which team it is.

I also think there is value in being in the "P5 waiting room" conference. Obviously no way to really know, but I think Boise probably would have had a better shot at being in the Big 12 invite group had they followed through and joined the AAC back in 2014.
09-14-2021 12:17 PM
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