It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Think? On this board? Judging by all the nonsensical posts like "Memphis is the greatest university ever" or "UCF is going to the Big Ten", I think you've come to the wrong place.

(09-12-2021 10:55 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(09-12-2021 10:34 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-12-2021 10:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  It makes ZERO sense for a G5 league to go beyond 12, let alone 16 like posters who won’t let the coast 2 coast AAC die. Do they not understand how the expanded playoffs will work?

If the Sun Belt it expands, it does so after the AAC picks off a few C-USA schools. No school is moving unless they know they aren’t getting that ticket.

The AAC and SBC can kill off CUSA. Or the MWC and SBC can kill off the AAC. Either way, there is chaos and turmoil in the G5 ranks.

Just as the SBC wasn't killed off when they lost 5 schools last go around, CUSA won't be killed off this time. If it has to rebuild with FCS schools to survive, that's what will happen.

And that will be terrible. And shouldn't be allowed. So we will have 5 more "colleges" added to this board telling us that they should also included in B12 expansion.

(09-10-2021 04:04 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 02:44 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Iirc, Charlotte leaned on Tulane pretty hard to help them get back in?

That's possible... you mean to get back into C-USA in the 2013 realignment?

The hardest part of remembering that stuff is that it comes down less to the school name, but the relationships individual people have.

The President and AD of Tulane back in 2013 were still people the Charlotte admin would have relationships with from the first C-USA tenure.

But Charlotte calling Tulane NOW and saying "Hey, help us get into the AAC" probably won't be as effective because Tulane has a new AD and President, and they may not know the Charlotte people at all.

Relationships matter.

Yeah, I meant back then when Charlotte was forming its football program and figuring where to park it. I feel like there was an article that emerged after the announcement in May of 2012 that provided more insight from UNCC on how it happened. I remember Tulane being referenced there, but also hearing/seeing that elsewhere, too. Not necessarily the only, but, the main ally at that time.

Not unlike ODU having ECU to thank for its ticket in. And, by the time they both got to CUSA, their “sponsors” or primary advocates were gone or just about out of there.

The 49ers were members of CUSA and got the boot with St. Louis when the charted changed to require FBS football. Sure it was a given CUSA would accept them back with the addition to CUSA. Followed this closely as the 49ers were in the A10 at the time and there where threads and enjoyed watching the live feed of the stadium construction.

(09-10-2021 05:49 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

I honestly don't know exactly what the Sun Belt media terms are; mostly because I'm a basketball guy who thinks that low level FBS football and all FCS football is a fools errand.

But if you wanna share with me the numbers of the contracts, and also the dates of the contract term, that'd be awesome.

I spent another thread trying to explain money vs time to people.

And I also think that there's a diminishing returns principle as well. The college sports TV deals don't always fall along the lines of a relative value. They fall along a pragmatic approach by the network.

It's basically the In-N-Out theory. You know how people out west talk about how great In-N-Out is, and everyone else says that Five Guys is a better burger? Five Guys IS a better burger, but it also costs me $12 bucks to eat there, and I can get THREE double-doubles, fries and a shake at In-N-Out for like $12. In-N-Out is by far the better value.

There is far less bang for the buck in C-USA TV rights. They don't win enough to pay them for their markets. The market value of SBC rights is totally what someone is willing to pay.

The BRAND on the jersey isn't strong enough for people to tune in regardless of their record. People are watching C-USA football or SBC football because of STAKES. It's 1 vs 2 in each conference that's the marquee game to TV.

If you have to pay Charlotte, Houston, Dallas, Hampton Roads prices for CUSA 1-vs-2, but only pay Atlanta, Mobile, San Marcos prices for SCB 1-vs-2... the choice is simple for ESPN: Sun Belt.


Again, in everything I say, I'm a pragmatist, I don't want to sound like I'm bricking on the chest of any school or fan base. My school is never getting into the Big East because we're in a town of 16,000. Even if our fan base is a cult that lives everywhere else but that town. I just like really analytical discussions, and over-intellectualizing things, and sports

This is OT, but the bolded is an issue that I've thought about for a long time. I definitely think that Five Guys is a better burger than In-N-Out. Heck, I also think Culver's burgers are better than In-N-Out, too (plus Culver's has cheese curds). However, your point about the value an important one: is that really a fair comparison since both Five Guys and Culver's are at much higher price points? In-N-Out is priced closer to McDonald's and Burger King, which in that case, it's no contest that In-N-Out is better.

(09-13-2021 07:55 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  On another thought, if SBC and AAC take teams, and it’s possible MWC could be interested… couldn’t the MAC, another ESPN property, also take a couple teams - like WKU and MTSU perhaps? Realignment is a crazy game and nothing would surprise me.

It's tough to see an advantage for the MAC here. Sure, this would be two programs in adjacent states, so it would grow the footprint while not adding terribly to travel. Also, I do respect Western Kentucky's basketball tradition. But it also means two more mouths to feed.

I do agree that we could reach a point where Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee see the MAC as preferable, depending on how this plays out.

(09-13-2021 07:29 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(09-12-2021 10:55 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(09-12-2021 10:34 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-12-2021 10:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  It makes ZERO sense for a G5 league to go beyond 12, let alone 16 like posters who won’t let the coast 2 coast AAC die. Do they not understand how the expanded playoffs will work?

If the Sun Belt it expands, it does so after the AAC picks off a few C-USA schools. No school is moving unless they know they aren’t getting that ticket.

The AAC and SBC can kill off CUSA. Or the MWC and SBC can kill off the AAC. Either way, there is chaos and turmoil in the G5 ranks.

Just as the SBC wasn't killed off when they lost 5 schools last go around, CUSA won't be killed off this time. If it has to rebuild with FCS schools to survive, that's what will happen.

Even if 5 teams defected CUSA would be at 9 teams - so they’re not getting killed off. From there CUSA could try and add Liberty or NMSU to get to 10 to feel more stable. My main concern if I was a CUSA team would be if the Sun Belt and AAC went big and/or if the MWC decided they wanted in on the game and made a play for some Texas schools. Still, they could backfill, but the conference would look drastically different.

Not that they would but ESPN could entice the AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt to break apart the C-USA. I'm sure the MWC would be eyeing Texas schools. C-USA was bloated at 14 but that might be the number we see other conferences beginning to gravitate towards.

It also wouldn't surprise me if ESPN will push the AAC to "attempt" to snag some MWC schools in becoming a "coast to coast" conference. They may choose to do that and not drop the AAC media deal's current payout.

I don't believe the Sun Belt will die out but at most I could see 2 SBC schools getting AAC invites

MW is Fox/CBS now. They may still want into Texas, but it won't be ESPN telling them what to do.

(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 03:54 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 02:37 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Last TV negotiation Fox walked from CUSA without making an offer. CUSA games have been scrambled across multiple platforms ranging from NFL Network to Facebook to the infamous CUSA TV. You sure the markets are of interest to TV?

Right, because the football isn't good enough to bring the markets in those places. But the top half is going to be the same in either league -- the best of one will join the other.

And that group of top C-USA and SBC football programs are going to be better off picking the big market bottom feeders than the small market bottom feeders.

It probably won't amount to much difference, but if that group going forward keeps getting better, it's more likely to pay dividends with the markets than with smaller towns.

Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

So what's the per school per year value of the tv deal? I've looked but can't find that anywhere.

(09-13-2021 11:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 03:54 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 02:37 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Last TV negotiation Fox walked from CUSA without making an offer. CUSA games have been scrambled across multiple platforms ranging from NFL Network to Facebook to the infamous CUSA TV. You sure the markets are of interest to TV?

Right, because the football isn't good enough to bring the markets in those places. But the top half is going to be the same in either league -- the best of one will join the other.

And that group of top C-USA and SBC football programs are going to be better off picking the big market bottom feeders than the small market bottom feeders.

It probably won't amount to much difference, but if that group going forward keeps getting better, it's more likely to pay dividends with the markets than with smaller towns.

Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

So what's the per school per year value of the tv deal? I've looked but can't find that anywhere.

Your guess is as good as ours. If I were to take a ball park estimate I would say that the Sun Belt probably makes similar to what the MAC does. $750k to $1M range. That's just a guess though. Could be lower, who the heck knows.

It's not current AAC money, or even close. However, does anybody really know what the AAC will now be valued at?

Around 7 figures for each for the 12 current schools.

17 FB games and CCG guaranteed on linear ESPN each year with usually 4-5 more are picked up during the season. 4 Mens Basketball games on linear ESPN plus the Tourney champ game along with the Women's champ game.

All conference tournaments are in ESPN/+

Got the media backing of the mouse.


That's what it is at the moment.

(09-13-2021 10:24 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 05:49 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

I honestly don't know exactly what the Sun Belt media terms are; mostly because I'm a basketball guy who thinks that low level FBS football and all FCS football is a fools errand.

But if you wanna share with me the numbers of the contracts, and also the dates of the contract term, that'd be awesome.

I spent another thread trying to explain money vs time to people.

And I also think that there's a diminishing returns principle as well. The college sports TV deals don't always fall along the lines of a relative value. They fall along a pragmatic approach by the network.

It's basically the In-N-Out theory. You know how people out west talk about how great In-N-Out is, and everyone else says that Five Guys is a better burger? Five Guys IS a better burger, but it also costs me $12 bucks to eat there, and I can get THREE double-doubles, fries and a shake at In-N-Out for like $12. In-N-Out is by far the better value.

There is far less bang for the buck in C-USA TV rights. They don't win enough to pay them for their markets. The market value of SBC rights is totally what someone is willing to pay.

The BRAND on the jersey isn't strong enough for people to tune in regardless of their record. People are watching C-USA football or SBC football because of STAKES. It's 1 vs 2 in each conference that's the marquee game to TV.

If you have to pay Charlotte, Houston, Dallas, Hampton Roads prices for CUSA 1-vs-2, but only pay Atlanta, Mobile, San Marcos prices for SCB 1-vs-2... the choice is simple for ESPN: Sun Belt.


Again, in everything I say, I'm a pragmatist, I don't want to sound like I'm bricking on the chest of any school or fan base. My school is never getting into the Big East because we're in a town of 16,000. Even if our fan base is a cult that lives everywhere else but that town. I just like really analytical discussions, and over-intellectualizing things, and sports

This is OT, but the bolded is an issue that I've thought about for a long time. I definitely think that Five Guys is a better burger than In-N-Out. Heck, I also think Culver's burgers are better than In-N-Out, too (plus Culver's has cheese curds). However, your point about the value an important one: is that really a fair comparison since both Five Guys and Culver's are at much higher price points? In-N-Out is priced closer to McDonald's and Burger King, which in that case, it's no contest that In-N-Out is better.

And Whataburger beats In-N-Out!

(09-13-2021 11:15 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 11:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 03:54 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 02:37 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Last TV negotiation Fox walked from CUSA without making an offer. CUSA games have been scrambled across multiple platforms ranging from NFL Network to Facebook to the infamous CUSA TV. You sure the markets are of interest to TV?

Right, because the football isn't good enough to bring the markets in those places. But the top half is going to be the same in either league -- the best of one will join the other.

And that group of top C-USA and SBC football programs are going to be better off picking the big market bottom feeders than the small market bottom feeders.

It probably won't amount to much difference, but if that group going forward keeps getting better, it's more likely to pay dividends with the markets than with smaller towns.

Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

So what's the per school per year value of the tv deal? I've looked but can't find that anywhere.

Your guess is as good as ours. If I were to take a ball park estimate I would say that the Sun Belt probably makes similar to what the MAC does. $750k to $1M range. That's just a guess though. Could be lower, who the heck knows.

It's not current AAC money, or even close. However, does anybody really know what the AAC will now be valued at?

I'd be real surprised if i was as much as the MAC. Its peanuts. Even the MAC deal isn't enough above to entice anyone away. CUSA has larger athletic department revenues (which includes subsidies). Not by a lot, but more.

From the pinned thread:

Avg Revenue

01.) Southeastern Conference - 135,212,294
02.) Big Ten Conference - 132,419,763
03.) Big XII Conference - 116,300,857
04.) Atlantic Coast Conference - 110,214,089
05.) Pacific-12 Conference - 104,969,812
06.) Independents - 73,146,377
07.) American Athletic Conference - 56,211,621
08.) Mountain West Conference - 43,828,028
09.) Conference USA - 33,241,920
10.) Mid-American Conference - 31,555,040
11.) Sun Belt Conference - 28,229,148

(09-13-2021 01:00 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 11:15 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 11:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 03:54 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  Right, because the football isn't good enough to bring the markets in those places. But the top half is going to be the same in either league -- the best of one will join the other.

And that group of top C-USA and SBC football programs are going to be better off picking the big market bottom feeders than the small market bottom feeders.

It probably won't amount to much difference, but if that group going forward keeps getting better, it's more likely to pay dividends with the markets than with smaller towns.

Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

So what's the per school per year value of the tv deal? I've looked but can't find that anywhere.

Your guess is as good as ours. If I were to take a ball park estimate I would say that the Sun Belt probably makes similar to what the MAC does. $750k to $1M range. That's just a guess though. Could be lower, who the heck knows.

It's not current AAC money, or even close. However, does anybody really know what the AAC will now be valued at?

I'd be real surprised if i was as much as the MAC. Its peanuts. Even the MAC deal isn't enough above to entice anyone away. CUSA has larger athletic department revenues (which includes subsidies). Not by a lot, but more.

From the pinned thread:

Avg Revenue

01.) Southeastern Conference - 135,212,294
02.) Big Ten Conference - 132,419,763
03.) Big XII Conference - 116,300,857
04.) Atlantic Coast Conference - 110,214,089
05.) Pacific-12 Conference - 104,969,812
06.) Independents - 73,146,377
07.) American Athletic Conference - 56,211,621
08.) Mountain West Conference - 43,828,028
09.) Conference USA - 33,241,920
10.) Mid-American Conference - 31,555,040
11.) Sun Belt Conference - 28,229,148

Those numbers should be revised to conform to the new (presumably fall 2023) conference lineups. What is the AAC average (actually median is more useful) when the recent and forthcoming departures are taken into account? What is the Big 12 average/median when OU and UT are taken out and BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston are added?

IF the Sun Belt has a GOR for the next decade, I presume that changes the calculus. The $ boost to jump to the American likely isn’t there. The Sun Belt might be content buyers this go around.

Rumors from the other thread indicate Marshall doesn’t expect an AAC-invite and could be targeted along with another Eastern team. That could be Charlotte or ODU (the AAC may select one themselves). I’d say there is a chance ECU could be #12 if the American goes for smaller schools in the West, and depending on how they feel about sharing a conference with App (and, to a lesser extent, Coastal).

That’d shift Troy to the West with USA and create a very nice East division.

The Sun Belt going to 14? Anything beyond adding 2 can’t happen until the Big 12 puts the idea of going to 14 to bed. And, if Plan A for the Sun Belt involves a #12 team with AAC aspirations, that expansion will also have to wait. No rush though, not like these schools are going anywhere.

(09-13-2021 11:28 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  Around 7 figures for each for the 12 current schools.

17 FB games and CCG guaranteed on linear ESPN each year with usually 4-5 more are picked up during the season. 4 Mens Basketball games on linear ESPN plus the Tourney champ game along with the Women's champ game.

All conference tournaments are in ESPN/+

Got the media backing of the mouse.


That's what it is at the moment.

It will range between $750-$1.2m per program. That is what I have heard. Now that could change with additions or departures.

(09-13-2021 08:09 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 08:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s really simple:

The larger the conference, the less percentage of a chance a team has to win.

The percentage is already low for a current G5 to make the expanded playoffs by winning their league and being a top six champ.

The percentage is pretty low to garner an at-large with bloated P5 conferences eating all those up.

The best bet is to be in a smaller conference, win that, and hope you’re the sixth best champ. Some years it may be possible for the current G5’s to be 5/6, but that goes out the window if the conferences are too big and the best two G5 teams are in the same league. Think about it.

Think? On this board? Judging by all the nonsensical posts like "Memphis is the greatest university ever" or "UCF is going to the Big Ten", I think you've come to the wrong place.

Pooch. Get in the game. The University of Memphis is the greatest nonprofit of any type ever.

(09-13-2021 01:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:00 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 11:15 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 11:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

So what's the per school per year value of the tv deal? I've looked but can't find that anywhere.

Your guess is as good as ours. If I were to take a ball park estimate I would say that the Sun Belt probably makes similar to what the MAC does. $750k to $1M range. That's just a guess though. Could be lower, who the heck knows.

It's not current AAC money, or even close. However, does anybody really know what the AAC will now be valued at?

I'd be real surprised if i was as much as the MAC. Its peanuts. Even the MAC deal isn't enough above to entice anyone away. CUSA has larger athletic department revenues (which includes subsidies). Not by a lot, but more.

From the pinned thread:

Avg Revenue

01.) Southeastern Conference - 135,212,294
02.) Big Ten Conference - 132,419,763
03.) Big XII Conference - 116,300,857
04.) Atlantic Coast Conference - 110,214,089
05.) Pacific-12 Conference - 104,969,812
06.) Independents - 73,146,377
07.) American Athletic Conference - 56,211,621
08.) Mountain West Conference - 43,828,028
09.) Conference USA - 33,241,920
10.) Mid-American Conference - 31,555,040
11.) Sun Belt Conference - 28,229,148

Those numbers should be revised to conform to the new (presumably fall 2023) conference lineups. What is the AAC average (actually median is more useful) when the recent and forthcoming departures are taken into account? What is the Big 12 average/median when OU and UT are taken out and BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston are added?

For the purposes of this discussion, only the AAC is relevant. They only drop to about $53,000,000, still well ahead of the pack. But the Big 12 would still be around 90 with the 4 new members.

(09-13-2021 02:22 PM)Crayton Wrote:  IF the Sun Belt has a GOR for the next decade, I presume that changes the calculus. The $ boost to jump to the American likely isn’t there. The Sun Belt might be content buyers this go around.

Rumors from the other thread indicate Marshall doesn’t expect an AAC-invite and could be targeted along with another Eastern team. That could be Charlotte or ODU (the AAC may select one themselves). I’d say there is a chance ECU could be #12 if the American goes for smaller schools in the West, and depending on how they feel about sharing a conference with App (and, to a lesser extent, Coastal).

That’d shift Troy to the West with USA and create a very nice East division.

The Sun Belt going to 14? Anything beyond adding 2 can’t happen until the Big 12 puts the idea of going to 14 to bed. And, if Plan A for the Sun Belt involves a #12 team with AAC aspirations, that expansion will also have to wait. No rush though, not like these schools are going anywhere.

Works better with CUSA expansion since it doesn't have bb only schools.