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THE NC Herd Fan Offline
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Post: #1
As the AAC Turns
Looking at all schools that might be interested, the AAC could consider, and their Football success over the last 5 seasons plus factoring in stadium size here are my worthless ranking of the candidates

CUSA
UAB 34 - 16 .680 (45,000)
Marshall 35 - 26 .573 (38,019)
FAU 35 - 26 .573 (30,000)
WKU 34 - 30 .531 (22,000)
So. Miss 31 - 29 .517 (36,000)
N. Tx 31 - 31 .500 (30,850)
ODU 25 - 36 .410 (19,818)
Charlotte 19 - 36 .345 (15,314)
Rice 11 - 43 .204 (70,000)

SBC
App St. 52 - 13 .800 (24,050)
Louisiana 39 - 24 .619 (31,000)
Troy 41 - 22 .650 (30,000)
GA So. 32 - 31 .508 (24,300)
Coastal 24 - 24 .500 (21,000)

MAC
Buffalo 32 - 26 .551 (29,013)
N. IL 26 - 32 .448 (30,998)

SO, considering just this, I say UAB is a lock, Marshall (my biased opinion) App. St. but the 4th spot is a little tougher I guess it will be between (Rice, Charlotte, FAU, So. Miss and Louisiana). Given the AAC is losing most of its upper tier football schools, football will likely receive the highest weighting in who gets picked. CUSA, SBC schools that haven't had success in recent years won't get much consideration, with the exception of Rice and Charlotte due to their television markets. As far as MWC, I don't see any schools who would want to be considered, unless it's Air Force and Colorado St., there's always a chance the MWC will extend invites to Tulsa and SMU just to weaken AAC further.
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2021 12:03 AM by 49RFootballNow.)
09-06-2021 01:23 PM
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goliath74 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 01:23 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  Looking at all schools that might be interested, the AAC could consider, and their Football success over the last 5 seasons plus factoring in stadium size here are my worthless ranking of the candidates

CUSA
UAB 34 - 16 .680 (45,000)
Marshall 35 - 26 .573 (38,019)
FAU 35 - 26 .573 (20,450)
WKU 34 - 30 .531 (22,000)
So. Miss 31 - 29 .517 (36,000)
N. Tx 31 - 31 .500 (30,850)
ODU 25 - 36 .410 (19,818)
Charlotte 19 - 36 .345 (15,314)
Rice 11 - 43 .204 (70,000)

SBC
App St. 52 - 13 .800 (24,050)
Louisiana 39 - 24 .619 (31,000)
Troy 41 - 22 .650 (30,000)
GA So. 32 - 31 .508 (24,300)
Coastal 24 - 24 .500 (21,000)

MAC
Buffalo 32 - 26 .551 (29,013)
N. IL 26 - 32 .448 (30,998)

SO, considering just this, I say UAB is a lock, Marshall (my biased opinion) App. St. but the 4th spot is a little tougher I guess it will be between (Rice, Charlotte, FAU, So. Miss and Louisiana). Given the AAC is losing most of its upper tier football schools, football will likely receive the highest weighting in who gets picked. CUSA, SBC schools that haven't had success in recent years won't get much consideration, with the exception of Rice and Charlotte due to their television markets. As far as MWC, I don't see any schools who would want to be considered, unless it's Air Force and Colorado St., there's always a chance the MWC will extend invites to Tulsa and SMU just to weaken AAC further.

Sounds right. The only point of caution is that we do not, ultimately, know how much AAC chooses to expand.
09-06-2021 01:27 PM
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Smaug Offline
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Post: #3
IF AAC Expands
Nice breakdown, thanks.

Something to consider is that it will be college presidents making these decisions ( probably with their AD in their ear and their commissioner having already laid out his plan).

One simple question for them is, "Is this a school I want my school associated with?"

Yes, I am a shameless UAB homer, but I think we check that box as well.

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09-06-2021 01:31 PM
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HerdZoned Offline
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Post: #4
RE: IF AAC Expands
The more I look at who is left in the AACk, the more I have to wonder is it even worth it.

In great shape
Memphis

In good shape
SMU
Wichita State

In limbo being up and down
Navy
Temple
Tulane

In Horrible shape
Tulsa
USF
ECU

And you have to think that Memphis, SMU and Wichita State are looking for the next life boat off the AAC Island. Who's to say once one or more than one of us jump those 3 plus Tulsa aren't jumping too right after. Also who would be shocked that Navy said thats enough we are headed back to football independence.

My guess is some of if not all of Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State and Navy won't be in the AAC once everything stops spinning again.

If the MWC would ask SMU and Tulsa I think it would be a no brainer for them, Memphis may have to weigh their options. Also if the A10, BE or even MWC reach out to Wichita State you have to think they are gone.

When everything stops spinning the AACk could be

USF, Temple, Tulane and ECU (Maybe Memphis).
09-06-2021 02:10 PM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 01:23 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  Looking at all schools that might be interested.....

So we needed another thread for AAC expansion talk?
09-06-2021 02:20 PM
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Smaug Offline
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Post: #6
RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 02:20 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  
(09-06-2021 01:23 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  Looking at all schools that might be interested.....

So we needed another thread for AAC expansion talk?
The thread title could serve as a clue to its content, making it easier to avoid if that's your bent.

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09-06-2021 02:22 PM
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JCMiner Offline
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Post: #7
RE: IF AAC Expands
If the Big East considered football records last time around I don't think a couple of current AAC schools would be there.
09-06-2021 02:37 PM
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THE NC Herd Fan Offline
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Post: #8
RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 02:37 PM)JCMiner Wrote:  If the Big East considered football records last time around I don't think a couple of current AAC schools would be there.

Agreed, that's how Tulane, Temple and even Tulsa made it in, the belief they had television markets that placed higher value on adding them.
09-06-2021 02:45 PM
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Theflash Offline
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Post: #9
RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 02:10 PM)HerdZoned Wrote:  The more I look at who is left in the AACk, the more I have to wonder is it even worth it.

In great shape
Memphis

In good shape
SMU
Wichita State

In limbo being up and down
Navy
Temple
Tulane

In Horrible shape
Tulsa
USF
ECU

And you have to think that Memphis, SMU and Wichita State are looking for the next life boat off the AAC Island. Who's to say once one or more than one of us jump those 3 plus Tulsa aren't jumping too right after. Also who would be shocked that Navy said thats enough we are headed back to football independence.

My guess is some of if not all of Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State and Navy won't be in the AAC once everything stops spinning again.

If the MWC would ask SMU and Tulsa I think it would be a no brainer for them, Memphis may have to weigh their options. Also if the A10, BE or even MWC reach out to Wichita State you have to think they are gone.

When everything stops spinning the AACk could be

USF, Temple, Tulane and ECU (Maybe Memphis).

USF, Temple, Tulane=. Yuk
09-06-2021 02:48 PM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 01:23 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  Looking at all schools that might be interested, the AAC could consider, and their Football success over the last 5 seasons plus factoring in stadium size here are my worthless ranking of the candidates

CUSA
UAB 34 - 16 .680 (45,000)
Marshall 35 - 26 .573 (38,019)

MAC
Buffalo 32 - 26 .551 (29,013)

These are the only schools that I feel have any chance at joining the AAC. Now I say that to say this, I think if the SBC in its current form is a better football conference than the AAC without Cincy, UCF, and UH. I mean seriously just look at the suckage of the remaining members like ECU, Tulsa, USF, and Tulane. I won't even count last year because of COVID. Memphis is outta there if the Big 12 expands to 14 or 16. Maybe Navy hangs around with a reduced TV contract but who knows. And SMU, Temple, and Tulsa isn't bringing fans to your city.

I've always thought the AAC was about as stable as a three legged table. In it's current form they are a very, very good conference but without those three schools leaving for the Big 12 they may as well be CUSA 4.0. And if we're being honest, if CUSA had any kind of leadership we wouldn't be talking about who's leaving the conference, it would be who we're looking at to bring in.

Right now the AAC to me is like the chick you see at the club under the strobe light. Looks good from a distance until you walk up to her and sees she looks like Tony Kornheiser. Yet we're over on the AAC board pimping our schools to ECU, Tulsa, USF, and two delusional Tulane fans like their going to be making some type of big decision about the AAC.
09-06-2021 02:55 PM
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Smaug Offline
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IF AAC Expands
1. Leadership alone would be a reason to move.

2. Presidents and ADs don't read message boards, but a lot of the people who write them checks do.

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09-06-2021 03:00 PM
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JCMiner Offline
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RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 02:45 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  
(09-06-2021 02:37 PM)JCMiner Wrote:  If the Big East considered football records last time around I don't think a couple of current AAC schools would be there.

Agreed, that's how Tulane, Temple and even Tulsa made it in, the belief they had television markets that placed higher value on adding them.

CUSA made the same mistake. Lucky for AAC some of those weaker football programs turned out all right.
09-06-2021 03:12 PM
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UABGrad Offline
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Post: #13
RE: IF AAC Expands
Thanks for looking up this data. I am still thinking UAB, Rice, Marshall and Appy St. Does anyone know if the Appy St stadium is made to be expandable?
09-06-2021 03:15 PM
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JCMiner Offline
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RE: IF AAC Expands
Why does everyone assume they're in a hurry to expand that large that quickly? Imo Sun Belt has shown the blueprint to be a successful G5 league. Smaller regional conference.

That's why I believe their best interest is to go up to 9 maybe 10 members.
09-06-2021 03:20 PM
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RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 03:20 PM)JCMiner Wrote:  Why does everyone assume they're in a hurry to expand that large that quickly? Imo Sun Belt has shown the blueprint to be a successful G5 league. Smaller regional conference.

That's why I believe their best interest is to go up to 9 maybe 10 members.
I don't know how many they'll try to add. As far as hurrying, assuming the Big 12 wants to be at 12 in 2023 and the AAC doesn't want to play with 8, they'd better get a move on.

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09-06-2021 03:23 PM
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JCMiner Offline
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RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 03:23 PM)Smaug Wrote:  
(09-06-2021 03:20 PM)JCMiner Wrote:  Why does everyone assume they're in a hurry to expand that large that quickly? Imo Sun Belt has shown the blueprint to be a successful G5 league. Smaller regional conference.

That's why I believe their best interest is to go up to 9 maybe 10 members.
I don't know how many they'll try to add. As far as hurrying, assuming the Big 12 wants to be at 12 in 2023 and the AAC doesn't want to play with 8, they'd better get a move on.

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That's why I think their next best move is to add UAB and let field play out. Replacing UH with RICE doesn't exactly get them the Houston market back.

Prior to the SB, the MW was a very successful G5 league with only 8 or 9 members. I have no idea what the AAC will do. That’s just my observation.
09-06-2021 03:28 PM
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Smaug Offline
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RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 03:28 PM)JCMiner Wrote:  
(09-06-2021 03:23 PM)Smaug Wrote:  
(09-06-2021 03:20 PM)JCMiner Wrote:  Why does everyone assume they're in a hurry to expand that large that quickly? Imo Sun Belt has shown the blueprint to be a successful G5 league. Smaller regional conference.

That's why I believe their best interest is to go up to 9 maybe 10 members.
I don't know how many they'll try to add. As far as hurrying, assuming the Big 12 wants to be at 12 in 2023 and the AAC doesn't want to play with 8, they'd better get a move on.

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That's why I think their next best move is to add UAB and let field play out. Replacing UH with RICE doesn't exactly get them the Houston market back.

Prior to the SB, the MW was a very successful G5 league with only 8 or 9 members. I have no idea what the AAC will do. That’s just my observation.
Yeah, admittedly there are a lot of assumptions being thrown around (and I'm as guilty as anybody). Fact is, nobody knows.

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09-06-2021 03:30 PM
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MUther Offline
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RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 01:31 PM)Smaug Wrote:  Nice breakdown, thanks.

Something to consider is that it will be college presidents making these decisions ( probably with their AD in their ear and their commissioner having already laid out his plan).

One simple question for them is, "Is this a school I want my school associated with?"

Yes, I am a shameless UAB homer, but I think we check that box as well.

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I don't believe "G" schools have the luxury of being snobs. The Big Ten makes enough money to carry 4-5 schools based on academics and "other" sports. G schools need everyone in conference pulling their weight in major sports as much as possible, including attendance, which can translate to TV viewers, as well. Consistent winning, consistent attendance, handling at least men's basketball and football with some degree of success, decent facilities. All those things come before research tier, imo, at this level. Make the money first. Not to mention that almost all of those schools had no problem inviting Marshall the first time around and we have improved our status immensely since then.
09-06-2021 03:37 PM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 03:00 PM)Smaug Wrote:  1. Leadership alone would be a reason to move.

2. Presidents and ADs don't read message boards, but a lot of the people who write them checks do.

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I've said as much leadership is the reason to leave CUSA. But who's reading message boards that write them checks? The startling fact is the perception of CUSA is so bad programs are willing to leave one sucky situation to go into another slightly better sucky situation.
(This post was last modified: 09-06-2021 03:46 PM by HiddenDragon.)
09-06-2021 03:43 PM
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Smaug Offline
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RE: IF AAC Expands
(09-06-2021 03:43 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  
(09-06-2021 03:00 PM)Smaug Wrote:  1. Leadership alone would be a reason to move.

2. Presidents and ADs don't read message boards, but a lot of the people who write them checks do.

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I've said as much leadership is the reason to leave CUSA. But who's reading message boards that write them checks?
You mean, besides me?

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09-06-2021 03:45 PM
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