(07-25-2021 02:33 PM)Realignment Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 02:21 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:33 PM)RutgersMike Wrote:  I posted this in another thread but if the B1G can’t get UVA and UNC, how about going for USC and UCLA? This is a total blue sky thought on my part.

Is it even a conference with USC and UCLA? They issue moving forward for the B1G is that if you make a move on the ACC schools or the Pac-12 schools, you almost have to do a bunch of them as a separate division so as not to isolate them from their region and rivals. How many would you need? 6, 7, 8 teams in order to get enough of the crown jewels of a region to make it workable? Is it even a conference anymore if you do that?

I just don't see it. I can see a B1G/Pac-12 scheduling alliance like they have discussed before. Might be the best move forward. When you look at what the SEC just did, they claimed checkmate. I don't think we see another 16-team conference. Now if we get the 12-team playoff I suspect that the SEC goes to 9 games, no FCS anymore and 1 P5 requirement for scheduling and watch that new TV deal get them to $75 million payouts per school. They've become NFL-lite.

Is it even a conference anymore? No, it is not. It is a brand-bucket.

Let's say the Big Ten grabs 6 Pac-12 teams and goes to 20... The wrong questions are: How many conference games? Is that wise with impending playoff-expansion? What would the divisions be?

Yes, there is a certain critical mass necessary to grab schools from the other side of the country. After that, though, questions of "how many games against whom" are secondary to $$$.

What about the playoff? Well, the 20-team Big Ten will craft the playoff to fit their desires; perhaps not next cycle but by the time the ACC is for grabs it'll likely be de jure Big Ten vs. SEC for the National Championship evey year. By then maybe the names will change to FOX Conference vs. ESPN Conference... but you catch the drift.

(07-25-2021 10:07 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Of the 13 FBS+AAU teams available out there, 8 are in the Pac-12. That's the move.

It would take some heavy lifting and I'm not sure Warren is the guy that can make it happen. Perhaps you bypass the California legislature and drop Cal and UCLA to make it a more manageable "expansion" than what appears at first glance to be a full-blown merger.

The Big Ten can take a moment before acting. No one they want is going anywhere they can't reach. They weren't targeting OU, so the only real coup is Texas. Once the Pac-12 schools realize that a new commissioner can't elevate their conference from its geographical confines, USC and others will put out feelers. It'll happen. But don't expect the "days to weeks" timeline we'll see with UT+OU.


For a read, here is a joke/satire piece I wrote in 2010 before any moves were made last time around:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/3973...n-in-space

And Jim Delany riding in the back of his chauffeured car in his best Marlon Brando Don Corleone voice says to young Warren, "I didn't know until this day that it was ESPN all along!"

(07-25-2021 10:07 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Of the 13 FBS+AAU teams available out there, 8 are in the Pac-12. That's the move.

It would take some heavy lifting and I'm not sure Warren is the guy that can make it happen. Perhaps you bypass the California legislature and drop Cal and UCLA to make it a more manageable "expansion" than what appears at first glance to be a full-blown merger.

The Big Ten can take a moment before acting. No one they want is going anywhere they can't reach. They weren't targeting OU, so the only real coup is Texas. Once the Pac-12 schools realize that a new commissioner can't elevate their conference from its geographical confines, USC and others will put out feelers. It'll happen. But don't expect the "days to weeks" timeline we'll see with UT+OU.

I agree. This is the move.

The Pac now has 9 AAU schools, as Utah was recently accepted. From the Pac, only Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State are not AAU.

I don't know if the B1G would take all 9. I do see a scenario where they take the 4 California schools, Oregon, and Washington.

The core Pac schools may be presented three scenarios: the 12 school status quo, addition of four Central Time Zone schools that are not compatible (Kansas is the only one that comes close), or the idea of several Pac schools joining peers in the B1G for a huge media deal.

If you're one of USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, or Washington, you want to perform due diligence on making the B1G work. That is where the media money, exposure and academic peers are.

And, if this happens, the leftovers from the Pac 12 can pair up with the leftovers from the Big 12. That is, if the Big 12 hasn't already backfilled from the AAC.

(07-25-2021 10:33 PM)johnintx Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:07 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Of the 13 FBS+AAU teams available out there, 8 are in the Pac-12. That's the move.

It would take some heavy lifting and I'm not sure Warren is the guy that can make it happen. Perhaps you bypass the California legislature and drop Cal and UCLA to make it a more manageable "expansion" than what appears at first glance to be a full-blown merger.

The Big Ten can take a moment before acting. No one they want is going anywhere they can't reach. They weren't targeting OU, so the only real coup is Texas. Once the Pac-12 schools realize that a new commissioner can't elevate their conference from its geographical confines, USC and others will put out feelers. It'll happen. But don't expect the "days to weeks" timeline we'll see with UT+OU.

I agree. This is the move.

The Pac now has 9 AAU schools, as Utah was recently accepted. From the Pac, only Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State are not AAU.

I don't know if the B1G would take all 9. I do see a scenario where they take the 4 California schools, Oregon, and Washington.

The core Pac schools may be presented with a choice: the 12 school status quo, addition of four Central Time Zone schools that are not compatible (Kansas is the only one that comes close), or the idea of several Pac schools joining peers in the B1G for a huge media deal.

If you're one of USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, or Washington, you want to perform due diligence on making the B1G work. That is where the media money and exposure and academic peers are.

And, if this happens, the leftovers from the Pac 12 can pair up with the leftovers from the Big 12. That is, if the Big 12 hasn't already backfilled from the AAC.

If the Big 10 wanted to take all 9. Then take either Kansas or perhaps lure ND with Stanford, USC, and Michigan State. At 24 you have 4 six team divisions. That way you have less legal threat as 9 can simply dissolve the PAC. If it's ND it will help cover value for the rest.

As to the B12 remnant it would be foolish to merge too quickly with the AAC. If the SEC is fat and the B1G spans 2 coasts the ACC either grows or dies. If ND is taken it will die because Clemson and FSU will want out and UNC and UVa will be looking for safe haven. Then the B12/PAC/ACC remnants can form a third conference which could catch any AAC schools who want to move up and can afford the investment and that conference could be paid 40 million and avoid all damages if given access to the CFP. Promotion of some G5 kills anti trust claims and ESPN and or FOX have plenty of better quality T2/T3 content for odd time slot needs, ESPNU, ESPN2, and FX2.

Then over the next 15 years those who can't afford the upper tier weed themselves out and if the 3rd conference dwindles it can be absorbed.

On the "Big Ten takes six Pac 12 programs" theme ...

... what about, the Big Ten somehow adds 10 to go to 24 (with six four-school pods):

From the Pac-12: USC, Stanford and two of the following four (Washington, UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona)

From the Big 12: Kansas

From the ACC: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and two of the following six (Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, Virginia, Miami and Georgia Tech)

And then let's suppose the 16-team SEC counters by taking West Virginia, Virginia Tech and N.C. State and two of the four of the ACC the Big Ten does not take. Add Louisville (UK would not be happy) and that's 24 in the SEC.

Those are the nation's two "super conferences."

The eight remainders of the Pac-12, the six remainders of the Big 12, Wake Forest, Boston College and the other two ACC programs that neither the SEC nor the Big Ten invites ... that's 18 for what we'll call the Pac-18.

Then the 11 American and 12 MWC programs merge and add one more (let's say Army) for 24 and we'll call it the American Athletic Conference.

The American and the Pac-18 are both very good leagues but not "super conferences."

Notre Dame goes indy in football and joins the Big East for all other sports.

That's 91 programs (four massive leagues and Notre Dame)

So the 12-team playoff then allows automatic bids to the five highest ranked conference winners (that gets the rest of DI in the mix, as its best team would go), with seven at-large.

This seems like an absurd scenario I would concoct while boozing. But I'm sober as I type. Yes, this is far-fetched. But it was a fun exercise.

The issue with a 4x6 B1G is divisional alignment. Just looking at a map, one of the four divisions would likely consist of Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Washington and Oregon. I can’t see any of those schools being especially happy with that arrangement.

You can play around with the total school and division count — 3x6, 3x7, 3x8, 4x5, 4x6 — but just about any arrangement creates similar issues. Maybe schools will just put up with the change as the price of being in one of the two premier college football conferences in the country. But these proposals sure bring back memories of the WAC-16 and we all know how well that turned out.

I think KU plus Mizzou/GTech is the most likely scenario. It doesn’t mess with the balance in the divisions too much and solidifies them as #1 hoops conference. Nothing else seems realistic. Raiding the PAC12 sans CU makes no sense.

(07-25-2021 11:57 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  The issue with a 4x6 B1G is divisional alignment. Just looking at a map, one of the four divisions would likely consist of Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Washington and Oregon. I can’t see any of those schools being especially happy with that arrangement.

You can play around with the total school and division count — 3x6, 3x7, 3x8, 4x5, 4x6 — but just about any arrangement creates similar issues. Maybe schools will just put up with the change as the price of being in one of the two premier college football conferences in the country. But these proposals sure bring back memories of the WAC-16 and we all know how well that turned out.

Don't know if 24 is the next step, but it is at least a fair question: how to do divisions with a Pacific contingent? The basic answer may be to keep them in their own division and modify NCAA rules on CCGs to allow for an outcome preferrable to the Big Ten.

8 of 24 from the MTZ/PTZ is actually pretty easy: 3 division champs+1 WC in 2 CCGs, winners to Rose Bowl. The Midwestern teams would probably subdivide into 4-team pods to keep the flexibility necessary for maintaining rivalries.

I don't see the B1G trying to raid the PAC at all.

Too much geography in between, plus their longstanding relationship.

Call me naïve, but I don't see it happening whatsoever.

(07-26-2021 12:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I don't see the B1G trying to raid the PAC at all.

Too much geography in between, plus their longstanding relationship.

Call me naïve, but I don't see it happening whatsoever.

The B1G isn't going to raid anyone.

(07-26-2021 01:22 AM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 12:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I don't see the B1G trying to raid the PAC at all.

Too much geography in between, plus their longstanding relationship.

Call me naïve, but I don't see it happening whatsoever.

The B1G isn't going to raid anyone.

I believe also the BIG is not in a raiding mode. They agreed to "chat" with Kansas but that may not be much more than courtesy. The BIG had multiple opportunities prior to take Kansas and passed on it.

The BIG's most recent understood expansion interests from several years ago under Delaney, was to lure Notre Dame, and attract to the BIG's fold, ACC schools such as UVA, UNC, and GT. With the ACC, including ND, being in a long and strict GoR, there is not a fluid situation to exploit. And really, the ACC's core schools are tight, and are not itching to defect.

Pursuing PAC 12 schools is rather ridiculous. Repeating Quo's point on this, geography matters. The logistics, travel expenses, and time enhancements, would diminish cost-effectiveness for Olympic type sports. Doing a substantive scheduling agreement, which was attempted before, may be more prudent for the BIG and PAC12 to pursue soon.

The BIG doesn't have to rush for numbers sake.

(07-26-2021 12:17 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think KU plus Mizzou/GTech is the most likely scenario. It doesn’t mess with the balance in the divisions too much and solidifies them as #1 hoops conference. Nothing else seems realistic. Raiding the PAC12 sans CU makes no sense.

If that's the future CFB landscape, I guess I'm rooting for coronavirus.

(07-26-2021 12:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I don't see the B1G trying to raid the PAC at all.

Too much geography in between, plus their longstanding relationship.

Call me naïve, but I don't see it happening whatsoever.

My genuine hope is that no one else moves—at least not until 2037. I’m not thrilled with a future where the SEC is so much stronger than everyone else and is almost guaranteed a slot in the NCG but I think it’s better than relegating another 20 schools.

If the Big Ten is left with no other choice, I think lobbing off the top half of the PAC 12 is the way to go. It’s sucky for those not included but I think the Big 10 is more concerned with their relationship with USC than with Oregon St.

(07-26-2021 09:16 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 12:17 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think KU plus Mizzou/GTech is the most likely scenario. It doesn’t mess with the balance in the divisions too much and solidifies them as #1 hoops conference. Nothing else seems realistic. Raiding the PAC12 sans CU makes no sense.

If that's the future CFB landscape, I guess I'm rooting for coronavirus.

GTS the best case scenario is for the B1G to not just cede the south to the SEC. Then Tech is not on an island.

The B1G would be wise to counter the SEC in the South by adding the southern ACC into its own pod/division
B1G East: Rutgers, PSU, MD, OSU, Mich
B1G North: MSU, Wisc, Minn, Perdue, Iowa
B1G Plains:Indiana, Nebraska, NW, Illinois, Kansas
B1G South: Clemson, GT, FSU, UNC, VT

1 perm cross pod
Penn State- VT
Ohio State- Clemson
Michigan- Michigan State
Nebraska -Minnisota
Indiana- Perdue
Maryland- UNC
Iowa - Kansas
GT - Northwestern
Wisconsin - Illinois
Rutgers - FSU


The B1G would get the 4 teams that have appeared most in the ACC championship and UNC. They would solidfy the best basketball, and compete directly with SEC acceoss the south in recruiting. If UNC wont budge move down the NC pecking order.

If the B1G colluded with the SEC to have them offer NC State, Miami and UVA, you would have more than half the ACC on board to disolve the grant of rights. The B1G would be on more level footing with the SEC, and could look west to solidify coast to coast if they wanted to exceed the SEC. They could enter into a scheduling agreement with ND like the ACC has to further increase revenue.

Just a thought....

(07-26-2021 10:02 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 09:16 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 12:17 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think KU plus Mizzou/GTech is the most likely scenario. It doesn’t mess with the balance in the divisions too much and solidifies them as #1 hoops conference. Nothing else seems realistic. Raiding the PAC12 sans CU makes no sense.

If that's the future CFB landscape, I guess I'm rooting for coronavirus.

GTS the best case scenario is for the B1G to not just cede the south to the SEC. Then Tech is not on an island.

The B1G would be wise to counter the SEC in the South by adding the southern ACC into its own pod/division
B1G East: Rutgers, PSU, MD, OSU, Mich
B1G North: MSU, Wisc, Minn, Perdue, Iowa
B1G Plains:Indiana, Nebraska, NW, Illinois, Kansas
B1G South: Clemson, GT, FSU, UNC, VT

1 perm cross pod
Penn State- VT
Ohio State- Clemson
Michigan- Michigan State
Nebraska -Minnisota
Indiana- Perdue
Maryland- UNC
Iowa - Kansas
GT - Northwestern
Wisconsin - Illinois
Rutgers - FSU


The B1G would get the 4 teams that have appeared most in the ACC championship and UNC. They would solidfy the best basketball, and compete directly with SEC acceoss the south in recruiting. If UNC wont budge move down the NC pecking order.

If the B1G colluded with the SEC to have them offer NC State, Miami and UVA, you would have more than half the ACC on board to disolve the grant of rights. The B1G would be on more level footing with the SEC, and could look west to solidify coast to coast if they wanted to exceed the SEC. They could enter into a scheduling agreement with ND like the ACC has to further increase revenue.

Just a thought....

Best case scenario is a recreation of the original Southern Conference. Lose Sewanee, Tulane, VMI, William&Lee, Maryland, Duke, Wake Forest, and possibly Vanderbilt. Add TX, OU, FSU, VT.

(07-26-2021 10:09 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 10:02 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 09:16 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 12:17 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think KU plus Mizzou/GTech is the most likely scenario. It doesn’t mess with the balance in the divisions too much and solidifies them as #1 hoops conference. Nothing else seems realistic. Raiding the PAC12 sans CU makes no sense.

If that's the future CFB landscape, I guess I'm rooting for coronavirus.

GTS the best case scenario is for the B1G to not just cede the south to the SEC. Then Tech is not on an island.

The B1G would be wise to counter the SEC in the South by adding the southern ACC into its own pod/division
B1G East: Rutgers, PSU, MD, OSU, Mich
B1G North: MSU, Wisc, Minn, Perdue, Iowa
B1G Plains:Indiana, Nebraska, NW, Illinois, Kansas
B1G South: Clemson, GT, FSU, UNC, VT

1 perm cross pod
Penn State- VT
Ohio State- Clemson
Michigan- Michigan State
Nebraska -Minnisota
Indiana- Perdue
Maryland- UNC
Iowa - Kansas
GT - Northwestern
Wisconsin - Illinois
Rutgers - FSU


The B1G would get the 4 teams that have appeared most in the ACC championship and UNC. They would solidfy the best basketball, and compete directly with SEC acceoss the south in recruiting. If UNC wont budge move down the NC pecking order.

If the B1G colluded with the SEC to have them offer NC State, Miami and UVA, you would have more than half the ACC on board to disolve the grant of rights. The B1G would be on more level footing with the SEC, and could look west to solidify coast to coast if they wanted to exceed the SEC. They could enter into a scheduling agreement with ND like the ACC has to further increase revenue.

Just a thought....

Best case scenario is a recreation of the original Southern Conference. Lose Sewanee, Tulane, VMI, William&Lee, Maryland, Duke, Wake Forest, and possibly Vanderbilt. Add TX, OU, FSU.

The SEC has zero incentive to add Georgia Tech. Particularly if Clemson and Florida State are in the SEC. Tech looks alot more like Georgia State in that scenario. Really if the ACC falls apart our only hope is the B1G.

https://theathletic.com/2729861/2021/07/...ed_article

I could see Fox, in a long-term attempt to combat the SEC's foothold over college football, attempt to facilitate and arrange a B1G raid on the PAC, which I would also imagine PAC Presidents being open to, as it not only increases and strengthens the academic profile, but would increase revenues via brand associations as well. The Rose Bowl could once again become a traditional B1G/PAC Championship game too.

B1G Pacific
California
Oregon
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington

B1G West
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Kansas
Nebraska
Utah

B1G Central
Illinois
Indiana
Minnesota
Northwestern
Purdue
Wisconsin

B1G East
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Rutgers

Then, in the 2030's, the B1G can look to acquire Virginia/UNC/Duke/ND as a final foursome to move to 28 teams, while the SEC can add a handful of brands (Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Louisville) to get to 24.

And, with that, you have two conferences (B1G and SEC) primarily over two networks (ESPN and FOX), with enough programming to get every Friday night, Saturday morning, afternoon and late evening, all while consolidating the top brands of college football under two banners. In addition, you have two leagues running everything, and really replacing the NCAA as the driving force of collegiate athletics.

Just my .02. I have a feeling that is what we are inevitably trending towards.

(07-26-2021 10:22 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  The SEC has zero incentive to add Georgia Tech. Particularly if Clemson and Florida State are in the SEC. Tech looks alot more like Georgia State in that scenario. Really if the ACC falls apart our only hope is the B1G.

GT's selling points are the same as Clemson and FSU's:
- Monopoly ad rates
- Another football first
- Outstanding geography
- Several pre-existing rivalries
- Increase at the gate for games which yield attendance (fb, mbb, baseball)

They're just not as dramatic as either Clemson or FSU's. Similar, but not as good.

The SEC recreating the SoCon would be to deny the B1G a chance to make more money no matter who they added. It would deny the B1G access to positive growing demographics. Given California's recent loss of electoral votes, even the blessed Rose Bowl merger of the Pac-12 and B1G might not fix the B1G's demography problem. The B1G may own the midwest but the midwest is evaporating from a population standpoint. They need growing markets and that means south and west. Those are the only two options to not evaporate.

I have no doubt the SEC wants to stay right where it is with just TX and OU. I also have no doubt the SEC would not want the B1G to suddenly contain *ALL* of the ACC's southern schools and then be able to tap 5 growing demographic states containing good recruiting turf and back door TV advertising access to most of the SEC's footprint, just like ESPN does now with Notre Dame in the B1G footprint. So if something like that were to happen you'd get a P2 of effectively the original SoCon and what I'd dub "The Rose Bowl Conference" (+ whatever parts of the ACC North they wanted).

Having said that if I had to bet right now I'd probably bet on political turmoil. TX/OU will take at least 2 years to clear. That's an awful lot of time for politicians to organize and lobbyists to lobby. I don't think political turmoil is the most likely outcome right now, but I see the probability skyrocketing relative to where it is right now.

(07-26-2021 10:58 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 10:22 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  The SEC has zero incentive to add Georgia Tech. Particularly if Clemson and Florida State are in the SEC. Tech looks alot more like Georgia State in that scenario. Really if the ACC falls apart our only hope is the B1G.

GT's selling points are the same as Clemson and FSU's:
- Monopoly ad rates
- Another football first
- Outstanding geography
- Several pre-existing rivalries
- Increase at the gate for games which yield attendance (fb, mbb, baseball)

They're just not as dramatic as either Clemson or FSU's. Similar, but not as good.

Well, except that FSU and Clemson have a BCS-era and more recent history of being dominant, national title winning and contending programs while Georgia Tech does not. They are big-brand football programs.

That's a pretty massive difference, IMO.

Plus, I'm not sure Georgia would approve. And IMO Georgia has a lot more pull in the SEC corridors of power than Texas AM.