(07-27-2021 11:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:19 AM)solohawks Wrote:  If Texas and OU stayed in the Big 12 until 2025 they would not get a conference distribution for 2023-2024 season and the 2024-2025 due to the Big 12 exit penalty rules. That is about $70M total, minimum, per school.

They could stay in the conference until the end of the 2022-2023 season and either don't take payouts for 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons OR set up a structured payment schedule of that estimated equivalent amount to satisfy that requirement.

The real tricky part is buying back the rights for each year each school leaves early. The Big 12 contract is around $200M/year and each of the schools get about $20M from that contract. Using the 50% figure, Texas and OU make up about $100M of that annual sum. 2 years early is $200M or $100M per school.

You could be looking at $170M per school in payout forfeitures and buying back of the rights to leave 2 years early. If you leave 3 years early that figure is about $220M while if you leave 1 year early you are looking at $120M. If you leave at the expiration of the contract it's only about $70M

The biggest question to me is what is Texas and OU's budget to leave.

I've heard they already have people ready to write checks.

ESPN being able to buyout the Longhorn Network would give Texas some negotiating money.

(07-27-2021 10:30 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:49 AM)bullet Wrote:  It will mean lots of money and attention, but whether it is good for the conference long term is another question.

I look at the example of Big East basketball supersizing with lots of basketball powers. It became a weaker league as the middle and bottom of the league struggled with more losses and fewer chances for conference championships.

I completely disagree about the 05-12 Big East.

The Big East's only problem was a lack of performance in March. And that's because they entered the tourney injured and completely out of gas.

They'd spend the last 12 weeks of the season beating each other up with no breaks. Then they had the most exhaustive conference tourney in the country: the top-2 teams played 4 games in 4 days, with none of them against cellar dwellers (who were eliminated in play-in games).


SEC football doesn't have that problem. They have 3-4 weeks off before the postseason to heal and rest.

DePaul and St. John's turned from powers into dumpster fires. Cincinnati (I believe), Seton Hall and Providence quit being perennials in the tourney. Georgetown faded. USF and Rutgers remained dumpster fires. The top 4 or 5 continued to do well, but most of the rest were hurting.

In the SEC Arkansas has 3, Missouri 2 and South Carolina 1 division title. Will they ever even sniff that again? Will Tennessee and Auburn become more like Arkansas and less like Alabama and LSU and Florida? Will UK, Ole Miss and Miss. St. become more like Vanderbilt where 6-6 and a bowl is the dream season?

We'll see.

(07-27-2021 11:18 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:19 AM)solohawks Wrote:  If Texas and OU stayed in the Big 12 until 2025 they would not get a conference distribution for 2023-2024 season and the 2024-2025 due to the Big 12 exit penalty rules. That is about $70M total, minimum, per school.

They could stay in the conference until the end of the 2022-2023 season and either don't take payouts for 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons OR set up a structured payment schedule of that estimated equivalent amount to satisfy that requirement.

The real tricky part is buying back the rights for each year each school leaves early. The Big 12 contract is around $200M/year and each of the schools get about $20M from that contract. Using the 50% figure, Texas and OU make up about $100M of that annual sum. 2 years early is $200M or $100M per school.

You could be looking at $170M per school in payout forfeitures and buying back of the rights to leave 2 years early. If you leave 3 years early that figure is about $220M while if you leave 1 year early you are looking at $120M. If you leave at the expiration of the contract it's only about $70M

The biggest question to me is what is Texas and OU's budget to leave.

I've heard they already have people ready to write checks.

ESPN being able to buyout the Longhorn Network would give Texas some negotiating money.

Rumors are that the LHN will become SEC West and the SECN will become SEC East.

(07-27-2021 11:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:18 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:19 AM)solohawks Wrote:  If Texas and OU stayed in the Big 12 until 2025 they would not get a conference distribution for 2023-2024 season and the 2024-2025 due to the Big 12 exit penalty rules. That is about $70M total, minimum, per school.

They could stay in the conference until the end of the 2022-2023 season and either don't take payouts for 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons OR set up a structured payment schedule of that estimated equivalent amount to satisfy that requirement.

The real tricky part is buying back the rights for each year each school leaves early. The Big 12 contract is around $200M/year and each of the schools get about $20M from that contract. Using the 50% figure, Texas and OU make up about $100M of that annual sum. 2 years early is $200M or $100M per school.

You could be looking at $170M per school in payout forfeitures and buying back of the rights to leave 2 years early. If you leave 3 years early that figure is about $220M while if you leave 1 year early you are looking at $120M. If you leave at the expiration of the contract it's only about $70M

The biggest question to me is what is Texas and OU's budget to leave.

I've heard they already have people ready to write checks.

ESPN being able to buyout the Longhorn Network would give Texas some negotiating money.

Rumors are that the LHN will become SEC West and the SECN will become SEC East.

That would make a lot of sense.

Oklahoma is about to Nebraska themselves

(07-27-2021 09:50 AM)bullet Wrote:  Note how major realignment news ALWAYS happens on Tuesday!

I love this song.

(07-27-2021 11:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Oklahoma is about to Nebraska themselves

Nebraska Husker'd themselves with a run of poor coaching hires and poor recruiting. Recent Nebraska teams would not have won in the Big 12 either.

(07-27-2021 11:41 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Oklahoma is about to Nebraska themselves

Nebraska Husker'd themselves with a run of poor coaching hires and poor recruiting. Recent Nebraska teams would not have won in the Big 12 either.

They are going from being a big fish in the center of the conference to a small fry on the peripheral of a conference.

(07-27-2021 11:42 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:41 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Oklahoma is about to Nebraska themselves

Nebraska Husker'd themselves with a run of poor coaching hires and poor recruiting. Recent Nebraska teams would not have won in the Big 12 either.

They are going from being a big fish in the center of the conference to a small fry on the peripheral of a conference.

Their big fish status started diminishing long before they joined the Big Ten. The Huskers' last season with fewer than 3 losses is 2001 -- 20 years ago, and 10 years before their first season in the Big Ten.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/sch...index.html

(07-27-2021 11:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Oklahoma is about to Nebraska themselves

Nebraska cut themselves off from the Texas recruiting. Oklahoma is not doing that. The school that this will hurt recruiting wise is Oklahoma State. SEC schools will now be able to pitch playing games in Oklahoma but playing at an SEC school. We saw the SEC recruit Texas more effectively when TAMU joined 9 years ago.

A secondary effect will be Texas recruiting for OK State will probably drop some due to losing the annual game against UT.

Looking at their current roster OK State has 32 players from Oklahoma. That is a approximately 40% of their 85 scholarships. There are 37 players from Texas. This means that 81% of their roster comes from those two states. These moves will affect them far more than OU.

(07-27-2021 11:41 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Oklahoma is about to Nebraska themselves

Nebraska Husker'd themselves with a run of poor coaching hires and poor recruiting. Recent Nebraska teams would not have won in the Big 12 either.

Yes, Nebraska's last Big 12 title was last century, during the Clinton administration. So it's not like they were dominating the league as of the time they left.

(07-27-2021 12:11 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Oklahoma is about to Nebraska themselves

Nebraska cut themselves off from the Texas recruiting. Oklahoma is not doing that. The school that this will hurt recruiting wise is Oklahoma State. SEC schools will now be able to pitch playing games in Oklahoma but playing at an SEC school. We saw the SEC recruit Texas more effectively when TAMU joined 9 years ago.

A secondary effect will be Texas recruiting for OK State will probably drop some due to losing the annual game against UT.

Looking at their current roster OK State has 32 players from Oklahoma. That is a approximately 40% of their 85 scholarships. There are 37 players from Texas. This means that 81% of their roster comes from those two states. These moves will affect them far more than OU.

Oklahoma State will still recruit in Texas especially in DFW but the advantage they had over the likes of Tulsa, SMU and UNT will be gone since they’ll be recruiting more like a G5 than a P5.

(07-27-2021 12:21 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 12:11 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Oklahoma is about to Nebraska themselves

Nebraska cut themselves off from the Texas recruiting. Oklahoma is not doing that. The school that this will hurt recruiting wise is Oklahoma State. SEC schools will now be able to pitch playing games in Oklahoma but playing at an SEC school. We saw the SEC recruit Texas more effectively when TAMU joined 9 years ago.

A secondary effect will be Texas recruiting for OK State will probably drop some due to losing the annual game against UT.

Looking at their current roster OK State has 32 players from Oklahoma. That is a approximately 40% of their 85 scholarships. There are 37 players from Texas. This means that 81% of their roster comes from those two states. These moves will affect them far more than OU.

Oklahoma State will still recruit in Texas especially in DFW but the advantage they had over the likes of Tulsa, SMU and UNT will be gone since they’ll be recruiting more like a G5 than a P5.

And they may well be recruiting against SEC schools for those recruits.

(07-27-2021 12:11 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:38 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Oklahoma is about to Nebraska themselves

Nebraska cut themselves off from the Texas recruiting. Oklahoma is not doing that. The school that this will hurt recruiting wise is Oklahoma State. SEC schools will now be able to pitch playing games in Oklahoma but playing at an SEC school. We saw the SEC recruit Texas more effectively when TAMU joined 9 years ago.

A secondary effect will be Texas recruiting for OK State will probably drop some due to losing the annual game against UT.

Looking at their current roster OK State has 32 players from Oklahoma. That is a approximately 40% of their 85 scholarships. There are 37 players from Texas. This means that 81% of their roster comes from those two states. These moves will affect them far more than OU.

Two differences between Nebraska and OU: coaching hires and location. Nebraska has made bad hires and bad decisions for the last 20 years. Present-day Nebraska would struggle in the current Big 12. OU has 20 years of coaching stability between Stoops and Riley. They also have had the same athletic director in Joe Castiglione. Nebraska is also located farther from recruiting hotbeds, and is as close to Chicago as it is to Dallas. Norman, Oklahoma is located two hours from the Texas border and three hours from DFW. Location helps both Oklahoma schools immensely.

OU has recruited more nationally in recent years than in the past. On the current roster, there are 24 players from Oklahoma, 46 from Texas, and 39 from other states. This includes walkons, most of whom are from Oklahoma or Texas.

I agree that this will hurt OSU more. Instead of offering Texas recruits the opportunity to play in the P5-level Big 12 against Texas and OU, they will be offering recruits the opportunity to play in Big 12-lite.

With A&M, Texas, and OU, Texas is now an SEC state for recruiting purposes.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35e...&h=550

*** SMUstang ***

(07-27-2021 02:32 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35e...&h=550

*** SMUstang ***

LOL

(07-27-2021 10:14 AM)chester Wrote:  SEC presidents meet Thursday, right?

I read a release on an Oklahoma board today that they think this will be wrapped up by the 30th.

And to Ken D, the date of 2025 legally shows no intent to break an agreement which is likely null via further departures within 2 years.

The SEC is starting to gorge on its own tail. I wish them all the failure in the world.

(07-27-2021 03:01 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  The SEC is starting to gorge on its own tail. I wish them all the failure in the world.

We aren't the cobra. We are the mongoose.

(07-27-2021 03:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 03:01 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  The SEC is starting to gorge on its own tail. I wish them all the failure in the world.

We aren't the cobra. We are the mongoose.

You got that right.