tj_2009
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RE: Texas and Oklahoma to SEC???
(07-23-2021 04:18 AM)TerryD Wrote: (07-23-2021 12:54 AM)tj_2009 Wrote: (07-22-2021 02:49 PM)Lou_C Wrote: (07-22-2021 02:03 PM)tj_2009 Wrote: (07-22-2021 11:47 AM)random asian guy Wrote: I think the ACC probably already made the same ND offer to UT. I gave up on the UT partial deal once I saw the increased SEC revenue number. The bottomline is that the LHN (plus the ACCN) cannot keep up with the SEC $$$.
The SEC is going to be hard to beat in terms of $$$. I am not sure what the ACC can do other than try and convince Notre Dame to join. I doubt Notre Dame will join the ACC unless they get forced to by not having access to the playoff. Interestingly that if the Big XII implodes there will be 4 Power conferences which makes a nice round number for the playoffs, although the SEC and B1G would probably want multiple spots in the playoffs.
Playoffs are expanding to 12. Expect a full half or more to be SEC, but ND won't be frozen out. Playoff access won't be a reason for ND to join.
The only reason ND might join is to have some say in what their future schedule and arrangement looks like. As long as they hold independence, it's not on their terms. Do you think they LIKE being committed to 5 ACC games a year? That was the cost to park their other sports there.
I'm old enough to remember when ND would never join a conference. And then well, ok, we'll join a conference, but we won't play for football. And then, ok, we'll play for football but we won't play a full schedule. Then ok, we'll play a full schedule, but only once.
At no point in a hundred years has ND gotten more independent. It only goes one way.
Eventually, you can only work with what's left, and as long as it's not viable to be truly independent, which it unquestionably isn't and hasn't been for decades...you're at the mercy of the landscape, you're not making the landscape.
At some point, it's possible ND decides they want to name their terms on how their independence ends, instead of having it thrust upon them. They could make a call tomorrow to the ACC, and pretty much dictate their terms as far as who the 16th is, whether the ACC plays 8 or 9 conference games, neutral site conference games, an NBC carve-out, whatever.
I don't expect them to do that, I expect them to hold on for another 10 or 20 years. But if (when) the ACC cracks, the end game at that point could very well have ND playing their Olympic sports with the Big East, and cobbling together a 12 game schedule in an environment where all the major programs are playing 9 or 10 game schedules. Or being committed to 5 games a year with an ACC that's been buried financially to the point that competitively they're the AAC, or an ACC that has lost a couple of it's most desirable programs. Or joining the Big 10 on the Big 10's terms.
Add to that the fact that "ND doesn't need the money" doesn't really hold up any more, if you've been looking at the money. When the SEC and B1G schools are making $75, 85, 100M a year from their conference, a pandemic can wipe out a season of stadium revenue, and half your booster funds are headed toward players instead of the program thanks to NIL...there's NO program that doesn't need the money (especially when they purport to care about womens and olympic sports), including Notre Dame.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think ND is going to join any time soon. Who wants to be the bad guy, when some guy ten years from now can be the bad guy? But I guarantee some people are considering what the future is going to look like, and whether they want to be part of making, or have it made upon them. But I don't see anyone having the gravitas to pull the trigger.
I suspect you are correct. The game has changed and it is really not an advantage to be independent when there is a lot more money being in a conference. I am sure someone will run the numbers and at one point they will realize that the amount of money they can make in a conference out weighs the benefit of being independent.
ND ran those numbers years ago, and runs them all the time.
Jack Swarbrick has said repeatedly that ND leaves lots of money on the table as an independent, and has for years.
It isn't like this is a new idea. ND has always been okay with leaving that money behind.
The Irish have always thought that independence is worth that.
I am sure the new numbers that the SEC will generate after Texas and Oklahoma join will put pressure on every other college programs, to the point where it may make it difficult to compete against the SEC. I don't doubt that Notre Dame will resist joining a conference until it is clear that the SEC and B1G have too many $$$ to compete against. I can see this is coming in the next few years. The Power 5 conferences are down to the Power 2 (SEC and B1G), tier 2 (Pac 12, ACC) and (tier 3 - Big XII). I think Notre Dame might be able to take advantage of all the streaming services (Netflix, Apple, Amazon, Disney, Comcast, Paramount+, Warner Brothers Discovery, Youtube (Google)) to maybe hit the jackpot when they renew their TV deal in 2025. I suppose if they can't hit the jackpot then they can always join a conference. Still plenty of options for Notre Dame but when the SEC and B1G get $30 million + per year, it is going to be tough for anybody not in these conferences to compete.
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