CoastalJuan
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RE: Controversy if Playoffs Expand to 6 with Guarantee to Autonomous-5 Champions
(05-12-2021 03:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (05-12-2021 10:56 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: (05-12-2021 09:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (05-12-2021 08:58 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote: (05-11-2021 07:37 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: This is a hypothetical without practical meaning. Based on 7 years of CFP experience, a G5 champion/team has never achieved a top 6 finish. In the unlikely instance when a G5 is in the top 6, it’s more likely that it will make the playoff. The G5 has a much better chance of making a 6 team, rather than a 4 team, playoff.
The real losers of P5 auto bids are strong teams from other P5 conferences...in 2016, Michigan gets bumped by Oklahoma; in 2020, Texas A&M gets bumped by Oregon. It’s the P2 (SEC and PAC) giving up slots to the B12/PAC.
That wasn't the issue raised. The issue is that, in a situation where a #17 ranked P5 champ gets a handout CFP spot in a 6-team format, they pass over 1-2 better conference champs, even if they are ranked in the top 10, even in a ranking system that is built to undervalue them.
The hypothetical scenario raised is that the 5th best team with the 8th best ranking is left out, and the 30th best team with the 17th best ranking gets in instead.
P5 autobids hurt any highly-ranked P5 team that isn't a conference champ, and it hurts G5 teams as well.
Just look at this past year - Oregon would have gotten in to a 5-1-2 playoff over not just many much better P5 teams, but even with Cincy in as the G5 champ, they would have gotten in over MW champ San Jose State and Sun Belt champ Coastal Carolina as well, both of whom were higher ranked in the final CFP poll.
P5 autobids hurt everyone except the P5 team getting the autobid. Bad idea, IMO, even though of course all the P5 conferences want it.
IMO, the auto bids will promote engagement of more P5 fan bases, plus grow the interest in the playoffs. More power teams should also be willing to play challenging OOC games...recognizing that OOC competition carries less brand risk. The conference commissioners will be growing the pie for everyone.
From a practical perspective, it’s one highly ranked (has been a #6 ranked team) P5 school every-other-year that will be hurt by allowing auto bids for all P5 champs. Based on experience, the probability of any highly ranked P5 school being jumped due to P5 auto bids is about 50/50 in a 6 team playoffs. The benefits from P5 auto bids seem well worth the loss in competitive purity.
Since I don't see *any* benefits from autobids I don't think they are worth any costs. Regarding the points you make, IMO I doubt fan engagement will rise, as most teams will be quickly eliminated from playoffs anyway, and I do not like the idea of meaningless OOC games, and I think OOC games will become pretty meaningless once you can lose them and still get your conferences autobid. So I don't think the pie will grow for everyone, though it might very well be a kind of life-jacket for conferences that are currently struggling and stand to benefit, the PAC and AAC come immediately to mind.
But for say the B1G and SEC, I don't see any upside at all. I see downside for them, in that autobids, if a part of a small 8-team field, will likely "level out" the power among the P5, and as the big kahunas, they don't really want that to happen.
That's why I think we won't see autobids unless the field is at least 12 strong.
I definitely see the benefits and value of auto-bids. I refer again to the NFL. Not only does every division champ make the playoffs, but they are higher seeded than the wild card teams and get to host their first game. If you don't think that ups the interest in a Week 17 matchup between the Giants and Cowboys, both coming in at 8-7, who would otherwise already be eliminated, you've lost your mind. Auto-bids are the only reason fans outside of those two fanbases are watching that game.
The best scenario that they can put together would be one that makes the most OOC games, regular season games, conference championships, bowl games, and playoff games interesting and meaningful to the most people.
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