(05-05-2021 05:10 PM)46566 Wrote:  Though there's still a problem of olympic sports. I'm still unsure who would take either of them. I don't see either the WAC or Big Sky taking Olympic only invites. The only option is Byu asking WCC to take Boise State if Byu accepted a AAC invite.

:my point of view has always been to take Boise and SDSU as all sports additions which would probably be enough to nudge BYU in as the final all sports add. Then I'd offer Gonzaga. The AAC would then have 14 football 15 basketball members. The Olympics except for basketball would only play in their respective east or west divisions until it's time for their CCG tournaments.

(05-06-2021 10:17 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 05:10 PM)46566 Wrote:  Though there's still a problem of olympic sports. I'm still unsure who would take either of them. I don't see either the WAC or Big Sky taking Olympic only invites. The only option is Byu asking WCC to take Boise State if Byu accepted a AAC invite.

:my point of view has always been to take Boise and SDSU as all sports additions which would probably be enough to nudge BYU in as the final all sports add. Then I'd offer Gonzaga. The AAC would then have 14 football 15 basketball members. The Olympics except for basketball would only play in their respective east or west divisions until it's time for their CCG tournaments.

I think Boise would definitely take all sports, but SDSU would probably be very hesitant.

I think at this point you need to create a full western flank if you want western schools and the ability to monopolize a potential G5 playoff spot

(05-06-2021 10:25 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 10:17 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 05:10 PM)46566 Wrote:  Though there's still a problem of olympic sports. I'm still unsure who would take either of them. I don't see either the WAC or Big Sky taking Olympic only invites. The only option is Byu asking WCC to take Boise State if Byu accepted a AAC invite.

:my point of view has always been to take Boise and SDSU as all sports additions which would probably be enough to nudge BYU in as the final all sports add. Then I'd offer Gonzaga. The AAC would then have 14 football 15 basketball members. The Olympics except for basketball would only play in their respective east or west divisions until it's time for their CCG tournaments.

I think Boise would definitely take all sports, but SDSU would probably be very hesitant.

I think at this point you need to create a full western flank if you want western schools and the ability to monopolize a potential G5 playoff spot

Boise state and SDSU, BYU, Gonzaga Houston, SMU, Tulsa would be the West division.

(05-05-2021 10:22 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 09:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I hope he is wrong. IMO, the AAC should not take Boise or SDSU, and especially not if we have to take any sports other than football.

And I'm even against taking their football. The AAC has proven capable of dominating the G5 NY6 spot without these MW schools. There's a reason the rest of the MW tried to end Boise's sweetheart TV deal - because Boise hasn't been doing what they were expected to do to earn that extra money, namely capture the NY6 spot. The last time Boise did that, Saban had four national titles not seven, and the idea of Clemson going to the playoffs even once seemed far-fetched. IMO we dodged a bullet when they bailed out in late 2012 as the Big East fell fully apart.

Boise and SDSU want a lifeline. But why should the AAC provide one? As a USF fan, I'm uninterested in allowing Boise or SDSU access to our superior platform.

Let them drown.

Boise still gets a lot of left over respect from their previous success.

Yup, from playing 2 mid-tier games along with 10 cupcakes each season.

(05-06-2021 10:40 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 10:25 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 10:17 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 05:10 PM)46566 Wrote:  Though there's still a problem of olympic sports. I'm still unsure who would take either of them. I don't see either the WAC or Big Sky taking Olympic only invites. The only option is Byu asking WCC to take Boise State if Byu accepted a AAC invite.

:my point of view has always been to take Boise and SDSU as all sports additions which would probably be enough to nudge BYU in as the final all sports add. Then I'd offer Gonzaga. The AAC would then have 14 football 15 basketball members. The Olympics except for basketball would only play in their respective east or west divisions until it's time for their CCG tournaments.

I think Boise would definitely take all sports, but SDSU would probably be very hesitant.

I think at this point you need to create a full western flank if you want western schools and the ability to monopolize a potential G5 playoff spot

Boise state and SDSU, BYU, Gonzaga Houston, SMU, Tulsa would be the West division.

Wichita too?

(05-06-2021 12:33 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 09:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I hope he is wrong. IMO, the AAC should not take Boise or SDSU, and especially not if we have to take any sports other than football.

And I'm even against taking their football. The AAC has proven capable of dominating the G5 NY6 spot without these MW schools. There's a reason the rest of the MW tried to end Boise's sweetheart TV deal - because Boise hasn't been doing what they were expected to do to earn that extra money, namely capture the NY6 spot. The last time Boise did that, Saban had four national titles not seven, and the idea of Clemson going to the playoffs even once seemed far-fetched. IMO we dodged a bullet when they bailed out in late 2012 as the Big East fell fully apart.

Boise and SDSU want a lifeline. But why should the AAC provide one? As a USF fan, I'm uninterested in allowing Boise or SDSU access to our superior platform.

Let them drown.

As a Fresno fan I wish you would take Boise. They are poison as a conference mate. There is a reason they couldn’t get their sports into the Big West. But SDSU I would like to keep.

Totally agree but the Conference enabled their arrogance.

(05-06-2021 09:00 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 07:52 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 07:25 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 10:41 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 08:46 PM)Yung Knightt Wrote:  Do you have BYU's ESPN TV deal finances around?

BYU's ESPN $ + $300k CFP + indy bowl $ is <= AAC football only ESPN $ + $2 M CFP + conference bowl $
And that's about 10% of BYU AD budget either way

Is it fair to compare BYU's entire situation now vs. AAC Football membership? I'd think that you'd have to factor in revenue from their olympics that they would be able to pocket.

Just isolating variables as much as possible, while still trying to make apples to apples comparisons. Matt Brown made the common error of looking at ESPN$ vs ESPN $, when the CFP $ is 30% (full) to 45% (football only) of the AAC ESPN$.
If it's a football-only add, then their olympic revenue is unchanged (WCC money including tourney credits, etc)...so no need to factor in.
If it's all-sports (which I put in believe it when I see it) then you're looking at different changes yes.
I mean, let me know if I misunderstood the question.
But that's already more time and energy than I like to invest in some vague-tweeting and the least common denominator realignment discussion board.

The bigger point is that $10million dollars or so is NOT going to be the sole determinant for BYU. Football ticket sales for six home games are almost certainly more money for them than either of those ESPN/CFP/bowl sums I compared. And then there is more gameday revenue than just the gate. If it's just money, maybe they calculate that an AAC slate will draw poorly compared to the independent schedules they're used to, and it tips the money scales.
But it isn't just money - access to expanded playoffs will get weighed against perceptions vis a vis Utah, and even that will take a backseat in decision making to the bigger BYU mission within the global LDS Church mission.

Agreed and I always emphasize the bolded with respect to BYU: they cannot be *structurally* inferior to Utah, which is what automatically happens if they join a G5 league while Utah is in a P5 league.

As an independent, BYU can claim (and TBH, truthfully) that they have the power and brand to get an ESPN contract on its own that Utah wouldn't realistically be able to get. It's a way for BYU to reset the power dynamic between BYU and Utah, which is simply worth more than even a few million more dollars and/or easier playoff access. Many of us here might think that BYU's stance is BS in that regard, but that's how they think.

I would compare it to Michigan State getting an invite to the Big Ten but Michigan's only choices are being either independent or joining the AAC. Michigan is the school that believes in every fiber of its being that it is dominant in the state, whether we're talking about academics or athletics, so the mere thought of MSU being a P5 school while they aren't would cause them to shun any type of implication of being a G5 school. They'd take a haircut on money and playoff access simply to avoid the stigma of being in the G5 when their "lesser" in-state competition is in the P5.

That's how BYU looks at all of this and why I tell any AAC partisan that they're more likely to convince Notre Dame to join their conference than BYU at this point.

You're right as usual but:
1) if you were to right that on BYU Football Wikipedia it would be removed
2) Independents like BYU and ND should be forced into a Conference or blocked from postseason play. They can't have it both ways.

(05-06-2021 07:23 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 05:46 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 12:33 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  As a Fresno fan I wish you would take Boise. They are poison as a conference mate. There is a reason they couldn’t get their sports into the Big West. But SDSU I would like to keep.

Yeah, I both feel for the MWC folks who have to constantly endure the program and its administrative antics and for the AAC folks who can’t seem to land something better, or maybe simply quit Boise. And I want to like Boise, but it’s tough to considering the constant posturing. But it comes down to both conferences doing something about this: MWC needs to play real hardball on Boise and the AAC needs to either formally dispel this rumor or simply air out why the Broncos keep coming up in these discussions. Chances are, make it more known in AAC world, and fans and boosters come knocking on their schools’ doors in some sort of outrage over it. Especially if it comes to full membership.

I’m over all of it, but, totally buy it still being a thing, too.

I personally think moving up would fix that, because Boise is an AAC-quality team sitting in the MWC. Similar to how if Texas joined the SEC, they wouldn't be laying their d*** on the table as often.

May be hard to stop after all these years.

(05-06-2021 10:58 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 07:23 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 05:46 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 12:33 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  As a Fresno fan I wish you would take Boise. They are poison as a conference mate. There is a reason they couldn’t get their sports into the Big West. But SDSU I would like to keep.

Yeah, I both feel for the MWC folks who have to constantly endure the program and its administrative antics and for the AAC folks who can’t seem to land something better, or maybe simply quit Boise. And I want to like Boise, but it’s tough to considering the constant posturing. But it comes down to both conferences doing something about this: MWC needs to play real hardball on Boise and the AAC needs to either formally dispel this rumor or simply air out why the Broncos keep coming up in these discussions. Chances are, make it more known in AAC world, and fans and boosters come knocking on their schools’ doors in some sort of outrage over it. Especially if it comes to full membership.

I’m over all of it, but, totally buy it still being a thing, too.

I personally think moving up would fix that, because Boise is an AAC-quality team sitting in the MWC. Similar to how if Texas joined the SEC, they wouldn't be laying their d*** on the table as often.

May be hard to stop after all these years.

Texas, after they join the B10. Boise in the AAC too.

(05-06-2021 10:01 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State was in the running for the NY6 Bowl in 2019. Since Chris Peterson is not the coach at Washington anymore? You got to wonder if Boise State will pull the plug on Harson and get Peterson back as coach of the Broncos?

Well Harsin is now the coach at Auburn. Andy Avalos is the new HC. Chris Petersen is still young enough as a coach (56 years old), but I don't know if he wants to coach. Maybe he prefers being an administrator.

Late to the game, but why in hell would the AAC add two? That’d put them at thirteen and having to add one more.

(05-06-2021 11:40 AM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  Late to the game, but why in hell would the AAC add two? That’d put them at thirteen and having to add one more.

Yup. Its either add one or add 3.

AAC could create a PG3 or 4 by grabbing all the good schools and offered a tv package for all time zones.

WCAAC
Central Plains AAC
Midwest AAC
East Coast AAC

Just raid all the top conferences for the best of in each sports, and you could get big. It could weaken the MWC, C-USA, Big West, Big Sky, Summit, MVFC, MVC, SBC, A-10 and so forth.

(05-06-2021 11:40 AM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  Late to the game, but why in hell would the AAC add two? That’d put them at thirteen and having to add one more.

They would do it to entertain folks on this board, who would be able to start an endless number of threads about who the 14th team would be.

(05-06-2021 01:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 11:40 AM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  Late to the game, but why in hell would the AAC add two? That’d put them at thirteen and having to add one more.

They would do it to entertain folks on this board, who would be able to start an endless number of threads about who the 14th team would be.

+3

(05-06-2021 09:27 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 08:23 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So, would you say it’s a 0% chance that the AAC pulls of a Western expansion?

No, I wouldn't say that. I think I even wrote back in Jan that I figured the single most likely scenario would be for Boise football to end up in the AAC. I think there is a non-trivial chance that happens, and it wouldn't necessarily require a large western exodus to the AAC.

I just do not believe that this particular Twitter poster has the juice.

(05-05-2021 08:46 PM)Yung Knightt Wrote:  Do you have BYU's ESPN TV deal finances around?

Not that I can share in public, but I've had folks VERY close to that department tell me that the ESPN deal + WCC revenue > > current AAC deal (which is NOT as lucrative a deal as the initial headlines insinuated). BYU FB made ~6M a year before their extension, and conservative estimates have the new ESPN deal in the 9M range.

BYU joining the AAC would almost certainly trigger a renegotiation of the AAC deal with ESPN....but the bulk of BYU's TV value comes from the fact they they control the broadcast rights to at least three P5 games a year. That won't be the case in the American.

I think BYU is a low likelihood tocome to the AAC for all the reasons already discussed.

But about the bolded...

Looking back at BYU's home games vs contract-bowl-conference teams:
2019 - 3
2018 - 1
2017 - 2 (and kickoff classic vs LSU - pretty sure that's not BYU's rights)
2016 - 2 (Arizona in Glendale and WVU in FEDEX listed as neutral, but I doubt those are BYU's rights)
2015 - 1

Looking ahead at BYU's home games vs contract-bowl-conference teams (schedules complete except where noted)
2021 - 3 (plus Arizona in Las Vegas - that might be BYU's rights too)
2022 - 2
2023 - 1
2024 - 0 (10 games scheduled, two more chances)
2025 - 4 (8 games scheduled, four more chances)

(05-06-2021 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(05-06-2021 09:27 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 08:23 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So, would you say it’s a 0% chance that the AAC pulls of a Western expansion?

No, I wouldn't say that. I think I even wrote back in Jan that I figured the single most likely scenario would be for Boise football to end up in the AAC. I think there is a non-trivial chance that happens, and it wouldn't necessarily require a large western exodus to the AAC.

I just do not believe that this particular Twitter poster has the juice.

(05-05-2021 08:46 PM)Yung Knightt Wrote:  Do you have BYU's ESPN TV deal finances around?

Not that I can share in public, but I've had folks VERY close to that department tell me that the ESPN deal + WCC revenue > > current AAC deal (which is NOT as lucrative a deal as the initial headlines insinuated). BYU FB made ~6M a year before their extension, and conservative estimates have the new ESPN deal in the 9M range.

BYU joining the AAC would almost certainly trigger a renegotiation of the AAC deal with ESPN....but the bulk of BYU's TV value comes from the fact they they control the broadcast rights to at least three P5 games a year. That won't be the case in the American.

I think BYU is a low likelihood tocome to the AAC for all the reasons already discussed.

But about the bolded...

Looking back at BYU's home games vs contract-bowl-conference teams:
2019 - 3
2018 - 1
2017 - 2 (and kickoff classic vs LSU - pretty sure that's not BYU's rights)
2016 - 2 (Arizona in Glendale and WVU in FEDEX listed as neutral, but I doubt those are BYU's rights)
2015 - 1

Looking ahead at BYU's home games vs contract-bowl-conference teams (schedules complete except where noted)
2021 - 3 (plus Arizona in Las Vegas - that might be BYU's rights too)
2022 - 2
2023 - 1
2024 - 0 (10 games scheduled, two more chances)
2025 - 4 (8 games scheduled, four more chances)

Pretty much makes the case that they can join a conference and still have their 1-4 P5 matchups each year. I think the Utah thing stops being as much of a thing if the AAC makes the playoff as often as the PAC.

(05-05-2021 05:39 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Who knows.

Perhaps the American has moved off it's football only offer to be All Sports. San Diego State I can see being attractive to the WCC, especially Gonzaga who wants to up the SoS. I don't think that option is there for Boise State, hence my WAG that if there is something to this, the American may have altered it's offer to the Broncos.

If nothing else GF is correct that the American looks much more appealing if a Playoff spot is there for the top G5, which looks increasingly to be with the American.

I see Boise State as far more motivated than San Diego State., and 13 seems bad number for football.

The SDSU AD indicated back in January that there was nothing to this:
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...ntain-west

“A nonstory,” Athletic Director John David Wicker said. “It’s one sentence in an article. “Even if this was something we wanted to look to do or were interested in doing, it’s a nonstarter because we can’t put all our teams in the American and there’s no viable alternative on the West Coast for the rest of our teams (if football went to the AAC).”

Over the past five seasons, Boise State has won two Mountain West conference championships. San Diego State, Fresno State, and San Jose State have each won one conference championship in the past five years. If Boise State decides to leave for the AAC, they will be missed for football, but the MWC will be okay. Good luck to Boise State finding a home for Olympic sports.

BYU is NOT an option for the American, as BYU has no interest.

AAC needs to either:

1. Get Army and VCU. This would be my preference. But it is no more likely to happen than Bill Dazzle — nude but for a multi-color beanie with a propeller — riding a Big Wheel through downtown Nashville and NOT getting arrested.

2. Get Boise for football only (I would not want BSU sports "split" in two leagues if I were a Bronco fan) (very unlikely to happen)

3. Get Boise, San Diego State and one other Mountain West program and have two seven-team divisions (East and West).

Considering that Boise State backed out on paying the exit fee on the old BE the last time they tried joining, I wouldn't talk to them until and unless they pay what they rightly owe from the last time around.

SDSU is always welcome. But Boise State can wither on the vine as far as I'm concerned.