(01-04-2021 03:55 PM)Eldonabe Wrote: The odd man out always has a legitimate argument why they should be included instead of the last man in. I watch the Basketball Selection show every year and it is the same thing. The major difference is that they have auto bids but the simple fact is that there is enough room to fit all the conference champs in AND and the teams who are good enough to be there as well. Even with 68 teams the teams on the bubble complain they got screwed.
Football does not have that luxury. There is a finite ceiling as to how many teams you can add to a tournament format and not kill 18-22 year old kids and keep the regular season meaningful and not last longer than the NFL season all at the same time. These are still college students.
Unless you have a 16 team football tournament you are not going to be able to satisfy the vast majority. Anything less than 16 has to omit all FBS conference champs as auto-bids. At least with 16 you have 6 wild cards who will normally be filled out by the remainder of the top 8 ranked teams who are not already in.
I'll take a crack at it with 14 teams which would include all conference champions and only one major modification to the current schedule: to be included, G5 conferences would have to conclude their seasons on Thanksgiving weekend (one week earlier).
Thanksgiving weekend:
- G5 conference championship games (autobids). Highest-rated G5 champion is guaranteed a spot in CFP Round 2 (not guaranteed a home game, although it could be as determined by selection committee).
First weekend in December:
- CFP Round 1: the two higher-seeded remaining G5 champions as determined by committee host the two lower-seeded remaining G5 champions. Winners advance to CFP Round 2, with reseeding.
(14) Ball State at (11) Coastal Carolina
(13) UAB at (12) San Jose State.
- P5 conference championship games (autobids). Top four seeds as determined by committee receive A) a bye to the quarterfinals and B) a home quarterfinal game.
- Seeds 5-10 include the lowest-seeded P5 champion, the highest-rated G5 champion, and four at-large (seeds 5-8 will host a CFP Round 2 game).
Second weekend in December:
CFP Round 2 (on-campus sites). Winners advance to CFP quarterfinals, with reseeding.
(14) Ball State at (5) Texas A+M
(12) San Jose State at (6) Oklahoma
(10) Iowa State at (7) Florida
(9) Georgia at (8) Cincinnati
Third weekend of December:
CFP quarterfinals (on-campus sites). Winners advance to CFP semifinals, with reseeding.
(10) Iowa State at (1) Alabama
(8) Cincinnati at (2) Clemson
(6) Oklahoma at (3) Ohio State
(5) Texas A+M at (4) Notre Dame
New Year's Day:
CFP semifinals at two NY6 bowls.
(6) Oklahoma vs. (1) Alabama
(5) Texas A+M vs. (2) Clemson
Monday 10 days or so after New Year's:
CFP National Championship
(6) Oklahoma vs. (2) Clemson
For almost all teams involved, this format likely only adds one additional game. There are possible exceptions. If Oklahoma made this run, they'd play two additional games (though, to do this, they'd have to win a road quarterfinal game AND beat a higher-seeded team on a neutral field). If a G5 team made a Cinderella run, they'd also play multiple additional games (though the interest generated would more than offset this).
I'm not arguing that 14 is the "best" way to determine a true champion. With this model, though, every FBS team would theoretically have the opportunity to compete without causing significant changes to the current schedule and, in almost all cases, avoiding adding more than one additional game to a team's schedule (which would happen anyway if the CFP is expanded to eight).
I do think, as it appears most here do, that an eight-team playoff (at least) is coming. Going into almost every season, Alabama is favored to win the SEC, Ohio State is favored to win the B1G, Oklahoma is favored to win the XII, and Clemson is favored to win the ACC. That's problematic if the goal is to attract and/or grow interest in the sport.