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One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #21
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
Great preview. I think 4 is basically the floor for Cincinnati. I see them between 2-4 when it's all said and done. Houston is the obvious favorite.
11-20-2020 01:12 PM
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pesik Offline
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Post: #22
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-20-2020 12:04 PM)invisiblehand Wrote:  Darien Jackson should be way higher on your list Pesik. Had some of the best advanced stats of any returning player in the conference.

i love advanced stats but with the context of film.. if i focused on advanced stats rachal likely shouldn't even be in the top 20. the stats also LOVE Madut Akec (usf) and Mamoudou Diarra (uc) i dont even have either listed or mentioned..

jackson is an off-ball wing at only 6'2 (almost certainly shorter than listed 6'2), handles and offense have to improve ..advanced stats love him because he only shots when completely wide open, the majority of his offense is fast break dunk, designed alley oops, or lightly contest layups ..defense and rebounding (especially for his size) are really good but not enough IMO to make up for his lack of offensive skillset...of all the guards listed in the top 52, jackson is likely the worst at creating his own offense. a 6'5+ jackson would be higher because he'd be more versatile position wise
(This post was last modified: 11-20-2020 02:09 PM by pesik.)
11-20-2020 01:53 PM
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invisiblehand Offline
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Post: #23
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-20-2020 01:53 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 12:04 PM)invisiblehand Wrote:  Darien Jackson should be way higher on your list Pesik. Had some of the best advanced stats of any returning player in the conference.

i love advanced stats but with the context of film.. if i focused on advanced stats rachal likely shouldn't even be in the top 20. the stats also LOVE Madut Akec (usf) and Mamoudou Diarra (uc) i dont even have either listed or mentioned..

jackson is an off-ball wing at only 6'2 (almost certainly shorter than listed 6'2), handles and offense have to improve ..advanced stats love him because he only shots when completely wide open, the majority of his offense is fast break dunk, designed alley oops, or lightly contest layups ..defense and rebounding (especially for his size) are really good but not enough IMO to make up for his lack of offensive skillset...of all the guards listed in the top 52, jackson is likely the worst at creating his own offense. a 6'5+ jackson would be higher because he'd be more versatile position wise

His advanced stats aren’t particularly good for offense. They’re good for defense. He’s probably one of the top 2 defensive players in the league and he has one of the best returning win shares / 40, one of the best returning +/- etc... his defense turns into offense because of his high steal rate. Neglecting his defense would pretty much be ignoring the entire reason that Tulsa tied with Houston at the top of the league last year. We don’t depend on him for offense.
(This post was last modified: 11-20-2020 02:48 PM by invisiblehand.)
11-20-2020 02:47 PM
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Nameless Offline
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Post: #24
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
Hey pesik, sorry if you mentioned this somewhere already, I just saw this thread now for the first time and kind of skimmed through it. Just curious, what made you put Yetna 1 over Gardner? Not saying I necessarily disagree, Yetna is a beast. Just tough for me personally to put him over Gardner coming off the injury. Have you seen something that makes you confident he's going to come back strong? I haven't followed USF too much this off-season.
11-21-2020 08:32 PM
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pesik Offline
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Post: #25
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-21-2020 08:32 PM)Nameless Wrote:  Hey pesik, sorry if you mentioned this somewhere already, I just saw this thread now for the first time and kind of skimmed through it. Just curious, what made you put Yetna 1 over Gardner? Not saying I necessarily disagree, Yetna is a beast. Just tough for me personally to put him over Gardner coming off the injury. Have you seen something that makes you confident he's going to come back strong? I haven't followed USF too much this off-season.

because im not accounting for that at all lol

just going by what we last saw of them.. similar arguments could be made for Jeffries, Anei, deandre Williams who are all also coming off of surgery based injuries aswell..

i dont try to guess the impact of an injury, which will be impossible.. like i noted this is a preseason ranking, not a post season projection.... if he plays bad, he'll be docked throughout the season..

multiple aac coaches prior to his injury called yetna the best big man in the aac (a league that had gardner, tacko fall, dawuan jeffries, martins igbanu, tre scott and more)..no one is questioning if Durant is still a top 3 player in the NBA after missing a year with a significant injury, we just assume he is and wait to see otherwise
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2020 09:00 PM by pesik.)
11-21-2020 08:57 PM
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Miggy Offline
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Post: #26
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-19-2020 08:10 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-18-2020 02:16 PM)pesik Wrote:  My Preseason Projection:

1) Houston
2) Memphis
3) SMU (on the assumption anei gets a waiver)
4) Cincinnati
5) USF
6) Tulsa
7) UCF (on the assumption walker gets a waiver)
8) Wichita
9) ECU
10) Temple (late addition bump/assumption battle gets a waiver)
11) Tulane

League wide) I think 4 tourney teams should be the goal this year, maybe more depending on the caliber of team Wichita and ucf put out.

Something interesting I'm looking forward to from every team:

HOUSTON
- The guard depth and how itll be managed; Who steps up? who's rotated in and how? 4 guard lineup?

MEMPHIS
- The potential of this team is scary with their defense, literally just cutting the turnovers down to the level of an average team would drastically improve them, not to mention potential offensive growth from their returning players

SMU
- Make or break year for Jank. what happens when you have one of the best offensive teams in the league and then add an elite level shot blocker? (waiver ending)

CINCINNATI
- what will the quality of there transfer be like; is Dejulius the next Kendric Davis? can Rap hold down the void left by Scott? also the growth of Vogt and Williams to potentially 1st team all-conference guys will also be interesting. then there's the potential x-factor in Harvey (former top 50 recruit who was pretty much bench his 1st year)

South Florida
- This team "on paper" is one of the best in the league. 3pt shooting should still be poor but every thing else they need to win is on that roster, but winning is more than roster, culture plays into winning. Can usf get over the hump? also the freshman they got is NASTY (Murphy), might be top 3 iso drivers in the league day 1

TULSA
- Overlooked again? something that I find really interesting about Tulsa is the vast amount of shooters on Tulsa that could be great or horrible both being realistic, they have 5 or 6 players with a reputation as being "great shooters", but none have yet to prove it in a d1 arena

UCF
- if Walker gets a waiver, UCF wont be a deep team, but should have a starting 5 that on paper matches up talent wise with the top of the league. Desperately need a walker waiver if they want to make a splash this year. (there is a chance walker has already received a waiver, but UCF is keeping it secret, they have history of DOING that). also Darin Green might be the most overlooked player in the league

WICHITA
- No need to go into detail here; new coach, new players. all of it is a mystery. How itll play out? will be fun to see it unravel

ECU
- Gardener to me isnt the most interesting thing because we already know what he can do, we can expect another 20pt 10rb season from him. what interests me the most is that the players ECU expected to be its best player (not named Gardner) entering last year had bad years but they also had injury issues. can they rebound with a healthy offseason?

TEMPLE
- Some thing that I find really interesting here is that someone from temple is guaranteed to be All-Freshman or a finalist for Most Improved. no matter how good or bad a team is, someone will score points. the worst team in the nation have multiple double digit scorers. as is, some unheralded freshman or some low scoring returnee is about to get a spike in stats at temple. also khalif battle (waiver pending) has elite athleticism, could be a star for them, despite poor freshman year...

TULANE
- Hunter yet again has noted that Tulane will not be last. he thinks the turn around at Tulane has exceeded ga state. hunter also roasted Rothstein on twitter for picking Tulane last. also a few of there transfers didn't take being picked last too well either. will be interesting to see the fight they have.

Updated Preseason Top 50 AAC Players (Technically 52)

1) Alexis Yetna - South Florida
Highlights: https://youtu.be/Zy4Y6eeIpug

2) Jayden Gardner - ECU
Highlights: https://youtu.be/JNF-jNzw3uY

3) Caleb Mills - HOUSTON
Highlights: https://youtu.be/d7vIjRYJnPk

4) Kendric Davis - SMU
Highlights: https://youtu.be/0-fMENXlyAQ

5) Moussa Cisse- MEMPHIS (Top Recruit)
Highlights: https://youtu.be/27vI0Wjm5wo

6) Brandon Rachal - TULSA
Highlights: https://www.instagram.com/p/B_NYCMTFSyG/

7) Keith Williams - CINCINNATI
Highlights: https://youtu.be/poQU4TF9IsM

8) D.J. Jeffries - MEMPHIS
Highlights: https://youtu.be/bJnNP7RnKZM

9) Quentin Grimes - HOUSTON
Highlights: https://youtu.be/wERHK9PbphU

10) Landers Nolley - MEMPHIS (Transfer)
Highlights: https://youtu.be/sZJkbMM8SIk

11) Tyson Jolly - SMU
12) Yor Anei - SMU (Transfer)
13) Dexter Dennis - WICHITA
14) Feron Hunt - SMU
15) Darin Green - UCF
16) DeJon Jarreau - HOUSTON
17) Chris Vogt - CINCINNATI
18) DeAndre Williams - MEMPHIS (Transfer- needs waiver)
19) Marcus Sasser - HOUSTON
20) Lester Quinones- MEMPHIS

21) Tristen Newton - ECU
22) David Collins - South Florida
23) Alterique Gilbert - WICHITA (Grad Transfer)
24) Tramon Mark - HOUSTON (Top Recruit)
25) Rapolas Ivanauskas - CINCINNATI (Grad Transfer)
26) Darius McNeill- SMU (Transfer)
27) CJ Walker- UCF (Transfer- needs waiver)
28) Brendan Barry - TEMPLE (Grad Transfer)
29) Caleb Murphy - South Florida (Top Recruit)
30) Darius Perry - UCF (Grad Transfer)

31) Jordan Walker- TULANE
32) David DeJulius- CINCINNATI (Transfer)
33) Tyson Etienne- WICHITA
34) Ethan Chargois- SMU
35) Gabe Watson- TULANE (Transfer)
36) Boogie' Ellis- MEMPHIS
37) Trey Wade- WICHITA
38) Elijah Joiner - TULSA
39) Justin Brown - South Florida
40) Damion Baugh- MEMPHIS

41) Jake Forrester - TEMPLE
42) Michael Durr- South Florida
43) Darien Jackson - TULSA
44) Tari Eason - CINCINNATI (top recruit)
45) De'Vondre Perry - TEMPLE
46) J.P. Moorman - TEMPLE
47) Alex Lomax - MEMPHIS
48) Cameron Tyson - HOUSTON (Transfer)
49) Kevin Cross - TULANE (transfer)
50) Khalif Battle- TEMPLE (transfer- needs waiver)

the next 2:
51) Jaylen Forbes - TULANE (transfer)
52) Keyshawn Embery- TULSA (transfer) -ranking solely from coach hype

Note: THIS IS A PRESEASON RANKING. NOT a projection of how itll look at the end of the season. Example: 48 Cam Tyson, unlikely to be ranked post season as he'll likely be buried in depth, but he's coming in with 14pts per at 45% from 3 with (elite shooting numbers, you have to rank at this time)

Just missed:
Brandon Mahan
Curtis Haywood
Malcolm Dandridge
Sean Mobley
Brison Gresham
Zach Harvey

I've got to disagree about Temple's JP Moorman, because his play became steadily less and less productive during his sophomore and junior years after a promising start in his first season.

Unless things have changed, the more minutes Moorman plays, the worse it will be for the Owls. Unfortunately, Coach McKie may not have enough experienced, 100% healthy players on the bench to keep Moorman, one of the team's only seniors from playing 25-30 mpg.

However, if transfer Sage Tolbert were to be granted eligibility, that would give McKie a lot more options , and would help to offset the fact that JPM lacks the athleticism and agility to be a good leaper, or a shot blocker, or a capable defender when he plays vs. speedier players. Fortunately, Tolbert is much more athletic and agile, and his videos suggest that he might be able to become a top 50 AAC player, whether he sees action in 2020-21 or the following season.

...................

It will be interesting to see whether Khalif Battle, a 4 star recruit, will be a top 50 AAC player. He didn't play much in his first season at Butler, and didn't hit a high enough % of his shots there to put him firmly on the top 50 list (which is why he's probably listed as #50).

However, Battle will probably start the season as Temple's starting SG, and will thus get a great deal of playing time, which should help him to perfect his game. In addition, he'll be living and playing closer to home at Temple, and might respond well to the change of abode. Hopefully, he will perform like a 4-star recruit in his sophomore season.

Moorman had a poor season but he’s light years ahead of Forrester. Just look at the fact that Temple were outscored by fewer points for the season when Moorman played than when Forrester played. Temple was outscored by 7 points per 100 possessions when Forrester played compared to only 3 points for the season when Moorman players.

Was even greater disparity in conference play when Temple was outscored by 12-points when Forrester played compared to 7-points when Moorman played. That’s because Forrester is a high turnover and foul guy, Moorman is not. Also, Forrester is 50 percent foul shooter. By Moorman playing alongside Forrester, the point differential was larger than it should have been.

Temple being outscored badly with Forrester was enhanced by Forrester playing in the low-post, which kept Temple’s good perimeter players from getting to the hoop.

Temple’s most productive line-ups were when they played small ball last year. McKie never quite realized that as he mostly went to a small ball line-up when Temple was trailing.
11-22-2020 11:58 AM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #27
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-20-2020 02:47 PM)invisiblehand Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 01:53 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 12:04 PM)invisiblehand Wrote:  Darien Jackson should be way higher on your list Pesik. Had some of the best advanced stats of any returning player in the conference.

i love advanced stats but with the context of film.. if i focused on advanced stats rachal likely shouldn't even be in the top 20. the stats also LOVE Madut Akec (usf) and Mamoudou Diarra (uc) i dont even have either listed or mentioned..

jackson is an off-ball wing at only 6'2 (almost certainly shorter than listed 6'2), handles and offense have to improve ..advanced stats love him because he only shots when completely wide open, the majority of his offense is fast break dunk, designed alley oops, or lightly contest layups ..defense and rebounding (especially for his size) are really good but not enough IMO to make up for his lack of offensive skillset...of all the guards listed in the top 52, jackson is likely the worst at creating his own offense. a 6'5+ jackson would be higher because he'd be more versatile position wise

His advanced stats aren’t particularly good for offense. They’re good for defense. He’s probably one of the top 2 defensive players in the league and he has one of the best returning win shares / 40, one of the best returning +/- etc... his defense turns into offense because of his high steal rate. Neglecting his defense would pretty much be ignoring the entire reason that Tulsa tied with Houston at the top of the league last year. We don’t depend on him for offense.


Jackson shot is fine, even when he redshirted it was apparently decent. His practice stats and last.year at the end of the year are pretty close. I expect we will see him shoot one or two more 3s a game this year. I also think his shooting percentage will go up. I expect Jackson to be a swiss army knife for Haith and with Rachel be shut down defenders. The big deal is both will be scorers as well. Lots of their points will be junk, transition, rebounds, set dunks, but with the added team shooting we will have and their ability to get to the rim it will be difficult for opposing teams to key to stop either. Not a terrible take by Pesik, but I think Jackson's shooting had more to do with confidence than it did ability.
11-22-2020 01:12 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #28
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-18-2020 02:16 PM)pesik Wrote:  League wide) I think 4 tourney teams should be the goal this year, maybe more depending on the caliber of team Wichita and ucf put out.

The way things stand, in its somewhat depleted 11-team situation, having lost a team (Huskies) that would have been a contender, it appears that, at least until UConn is replaced with another competitive basketball school, the AAC may not be able to send more than 3 or 4 teams to the NCAA tournament, most seasons.

It's possible, if not likely that the conference will end up with only 2 or 3 teams in the NCAA, and with no more than a total of 4, or possibly 5, in the upcoming NCAA and NIT tournaments, combined.

Most of the 2020-21 preseason bracketologies and rankings suggest that there might be as few as two AAC teams (Houston (#16*) & Memphis (#29*)) in the NCAA tournament, with a possible third team (SMU (#49*) or Cincy (#66*)) either on the bubble or in the NIT.

*CBS preseason rankings

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...21-season/

Based on the preseason rankings, if there is another AAC team that could make it into the NIT, it might be Wichita State (#86*), Tulsa (#91*), or UCF (#104*).

*CBS preseason rankings

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...pproaches/

Here's how the top 6 AAC teams are ranked at another website:

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/men...ews?page=1

#13 Houston
#33 Memphis
#52 SMU
#59 Cincinnati
#84 Wichita State
#102 USF (ranked #117 in CBS rankings)
#118 UCF
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2020 02:26 PM by jedclampett.)
11-22-2020 02:09 PM
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BraveKnight Offline
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Post: #29
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
Good god Jed, can you please relax with the “WE NEED TO REPLACE UCONN NOW OR THE WORLD WILL END” narrative?
11-22-2020 02:54 PM
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Bear Catlett Offline
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RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
After years of sucking, now that they leave UConn has suddenly become a contender again.

Funny how that works.
11-22-2020 03:14 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-22-2020 02:54 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Good god Jed...

Even without mentioning them (in blue typeface), the reality is still the same. Not trying to be a pessimist, but just a realist for 2020-21, in particular, since Wichita State and Temple appear likely to have an off-year.

Hopefully, a team like UCF, USF, or Tulsa will surprise the skeptics.

The main point was that, rather than being getting one's hopes up and feeling devastated at the end of the season, an AAC BB fan might be better off to note that the conference isn't predicted to have more than 4 or 5 (NCAA+NIT) tournament teams in the Spring.

Some people might want to keep the possibility of a future team #12 in mind, because the basketball conference could take a quantum leap forward in the foreseeable future.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2020 03:46 PM by jedclampett.)
11-22-2020 03:45 PM
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pesik Offline
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RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-22-2020 03:45 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 02:54 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Good god Jed...

Even without mentioning them (in blue typeface), the reality is still the same. Not trying to be a pessimist, but just a realist for 2020-21, in particular, since Wichita State and Temple appear likely to have an off-year.

Hopefully, a team like UCF, USF, or Tulsa will surprise the skeptics.

The main point was that, rather than being getting one's hopes up and feeling devastated at the end of the season, an AAC BB fan might be better off to note that the conference isn't predicted to have more than 4 or 5 (NCAA+NIT) tournament teams in the Spring.

Some people might want to keep the possibility of a future team #12 in mind, because the basketball conference could take a quantum leap forward in the foreseeable future.

conference like the big 12 get 8 of 10 members in and its somehow a reach to say i expect 4???

last year entering the conference tourney we had 3 to 5 teams that had a case for a tourney none of which were uconn

im aware that no-one is projecting many middle teams into a tourney in the preseason.. if i was making a preseason bracketology i would only have 2 aac teams too, and would give memphis a low seed.. which is what everyone has done..

we have many teams in the aac that have to prove it that you cant put them into bracketology

usf has a tourney capable team, its impossible to put them in any preseason bracketology with their recent history, Cincinnati feels thy have a tourney team- but from an outside perspective they lost A TON, SMU has a tourney team on paper but jank hasnt done much with smu in years...memphis has a high seed tourney team on paper, but there are doubts about penny

we dont have brands or recent success that gets our teams the benefit of the doubt. i get that ..doesnt change the fact that 4 bids is well within the realistic possibilities for this league

also temple is having a down year, the only aac team for sure having a down year...before the Wichita scandal Wichita coaches actually said they felt this year would be better than last year.. even if they are worse, they were bubble team last year, a few levels lower would be good place
11-22-2020 04:38 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #33
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-22-2020 04:38 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 03:45 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 02:54 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Good god Jed...

Even without mentioning them (in blue typeface), the reality is still the same. Not trying to be a pessimist, but just a realist for 2020-21, in particular, since Wichita State and Temple appear likely to have an off-year.

Hopefully, a team like UCF, USF, or Tulsa will surprise the skeptics.

The main point was that, rather than being getting one's hopes up and feeling devastated at the end of the season, an AAC BB fan might be better off to note that the conference isn't predicted to have more than 4 or 5 (NCAA+NIT) tournament teams in the Spring.

Some people might want to keep the possibility of a future team #12 in mind, because the basketball conference could take a quantum leap forward in the foreseeable future.

conference like the big 12 get 8 of 10 members in and its somehow a reach to say i expect 4???

last year entering the conference tourney we had 3 to 5 teams that had a case for a tourney none of which were uconn

im aware that no-one is projecting many middle teams into a tourney in the preseason.. if i was making a preseason bracketology i would only have 2 aac teams too, and would give memphis a low seed.. which is what everyone has done..

we have many teams in the aac that have to prove it that you cant put them into bracketology

usf has a tourney capable team, its impossible to put them in any preseason bracketology with their recent history, Cincinnati feels thy have a tourney team- but from an outside perspective they lost A TON, SMU has a tourney team on paper but jank hasnt done much with smu in years...memphis has a high seed tourney team on paper, but there are doubts about penny

we dont have brands or recent success that gets our teams the benefit of the doubt. i get that ..doesnt change the fact that 4 bids is well within the realistic possibilities for this league

also temple is having a down year, the only aac team for sure having a down year...before the Wichita scandal Wichita coaches actually said they felt this year would be better than last year.. even if they are worse, they were bubble team last year, a few levels lower would be good place

One of your better posts and an accurate description pesik.

+2

As a Tulsa fan I would add that we always sit in this position. Preseason hype for a tiny school especially within the name brand world of the AAC is rare. However if we win we will start showing up.

That's the good thing there is name recognition so if Cincy, Temple, SMU, etc start winning no one thinks twice about including them.

I think two is low even to start, but it's because of the Cincy and WSU changes Pesik mentioned. Four is very real and five is a big maybe, but honestly three is the floor, one of WSU, Cincy, Tulsa, USF, or SMU will win enough to be in pretty early on.
11-22-2020 04:53 PM
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Miggy Offline
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Post: #34
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-20-2020 06:19 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 05:20 AM)DeeHee33 Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 02:58 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-19-2020 09:59 PM)Miggy Wrote:  Temple’s Dre Perry, freshman Quincy Ademokoya , Brandon Barry, and Damian Dunn are Temple’s four best scorers. Dunn deadly two point shooter but not suited to play PG. Strickland’s excellent three-point shooting will help when he recovers from his shoulder surgery. Moorman needs to return to playing like he did his freshmen and sophomore seasons. Forrester commits excessive turnovers and fouls. Transfer K. Battle has not to date been declared eligible to play this season.


Three responses:

1) You haven't defined what you mean by best "scorers." Do you mean that they are the best shooters, in terms of FG%, or that they score the most points per minute of play, or that they score the most points per shot?

2) With respect to Dunn and Ademokoya, all we have are their high school stats, or in Dunn's case, his stats in preseason scrimmages (which don't tend to generalize to play during the season). Thus, it's nearly impossible to compare them with Temple's experienced players who have D1 stats, unless we're going to compare the high school stats of the team's college juniors and seniors those of the team's freshmen.

In other words, although some may have inside information about their scoring abilities, the rest of us have no basis of estimating what kind of D1 level scorers Ademokoya and Dunn are going to be. However, we'll start getting data on them fairly soon.


3) You mistakenly omitted Jake Forrester from the list of the team's best scorers.

.

Let's begin with the definition of best "scorers."

a) If a "good scorer" is defined as an efficient shooter, Jake Forrester (overall FG% and FG2%: .533) would have to be listed among the team's best scorers. In comparison, Perry's overall FG% was .482, and Barry's overall FG% was .466 last season. Comparing them in terms of FG2%, Forrester's FG2% was .533, Perry's FG2% was .569, and Barry's FG2% was .500.

NOTE: Transfer Sage Tolbert's overall FG% last season was .550. His FG2% was .570.

b) If a "good scorer" is defined in terms of points scored per minute of play, Jake Forrester (0.43 points per minute (ppm) in 2019-20) was the top scorer on the team, because he led all of the team's returning D1 players on the team in points scored per minute of play last season. In comparison, Barry scored 0.37 ppm and Perry scored 0.35 ppm.

NOTE: Transfer Sage Tolbert scored 0.3525 ppm last season.

c) If a good "scorer" is definied in terms of points scored per field goal attempt (FGA), Perry and Barry lead the way with 1.36 points per FGA last season, but Forrester (1.29 point per FGA) is still likely to be one of the better scorers on the team according to this criterion, considering the fact that Nate Pierre-Louis, a preseason 2018-19 all-conference player only scored 1.21 points per FGA last season, while the star of the team last season - Quinton Rose - only scored 1.13 points per FGA last season.

NOTE: Temple transfer PF Sage Tolbert led Perry, Barry, and Forrester in points scored per FGA last season (1.57 points per FGA).

Houston
Cincinnati
SMU
Tulsa
Memphis
USF
ECU
Temple
Tulane
UCF
Wichita State

Those are Temple’s four players who should average the most post per game. Some are good three-point shooters, others are good two-point shooters. Even though Forrester shoots two’s fairly well, he is not included in that group because he commits far too many turnovers, and he by playing in the low-post prevents perimeter players from getting to the hoop.
11-22-2020 10:13 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #35
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-22-2020 10:13 PM)Miggy Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 06:19 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 05:20 AM)DeeHee33 Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 02:58 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-19-2020 09:59 PM)Miggy Wrote:  Temple’s Dre Perry, freshman Quincy Ademokoya , Brandon Barry, and Damian Dunn are Temple’s four best scorers. Dunn deadly two point shooter but not suited to play PG. Strickland’s excellent three-point shooting will help when he recovers from his shoulder surgery. Moorman needs to return to playing like he did his freshmen and sophomore seasons. Forrester commits excessive turnovers and fouls. Transfer K. Battle has not to date been declared eligible to play this season.


Three responses:

1) You haven't defined what you mean by best "scorers." Do you mean that they are the best shooters, in terms of FG%, or that they score the most points per minute of play, or that they score the most points per shot?

2) With respect to Dunn and Ademokoya, all we have are their high school stats, or in Dunn's case, his stats in preseason scrimmages (which don't tend to generalize to play during the season). Thus, it's nearly impossible to compare them with Temple's experienced players who have D1 stats, unless we're going to compare the high school stats of the team's college juniors and seniors those of the team's freshmen.

In other words, although some may have inside information about their scoring abilities, the rest of us have no basis of estimating what kind of D1 level scorers Ademokoya and Dunn are going to be. However, we'll start getting data on them fairly soon.


3) You mistakenly omitted Jake Forrester from the list of the team's best scorers.

.

Let's begin with the definition of best "scorers."

a) If a "good scorer" is defined as an efficient shooter, Jake Forrester (overall FG% and FG2%: .533) would have to be listed among the team's best scorers. In comparison, Perry's overall FG% was .482, and Barry's overall FG% was .466 last season. Comparing them in terms of FG2%, Forrester's FG2% was .533, Perry's FG2% was .569, and Barry's FG2% was .500.

NOTE: Transfer Sage Tolbert's overall FG% last season was .550. His FG2% was .570.

b) If a "good scorer" is defined in terms of points scored per minute of play, Jake Forrester (0.43 points per minute (ppm) in 2019-20) was the top scorer on the team, because he led all of the team's returning D1 players on the team in points scored per minute of play last season. In comparison, Barry scored 0.37 ppm and Perry scored 0.35 ppm.

NOTE: Transfer Sage Tolbert scored 0.3525 ppm last season.

c) If a good "scorer" is definied in terms of points scored per field goal attempt (FGA), Perry and Barry lead the way with 1.36 points per FGA last season, but Forrester (1.29 point per FGA) is still likely to be one of the better scorers on the team according to this criterion, considering the fact that Nate Pierre-Louis, a preseason 2018-19 all-conference player only scored 1.21 points per FGA last season, while the star of the team last season - Quinton Rose - only scored 1.13 points per FGA last season.

NOTE: Temple transfer PF Sage Tolbert led Perry, Barry, and Forrester in points scored per FGA last season (1.57 points per FGA).

Houston
Cincinnati
SMU
Tulsa
Memphis
USF
ECU
Temple
Tulane
UCF
Wichita State

Those are Temple’s four players who should average the most post per game. Some are good three-point shooters, others are good two-point shooters. Even though Forrester shoots two’s fairly well, he is not included in that group because he commits far too many turnovers, and he by playing in the low-post prevents perimeter players from getting to the hoop.

Forrester scored 17.8 points per 40 minutes of play last season. It's going to be hard for any Owl player to surpass that in 2020-21.

True, his playing time was limited due to turnovers and fouls, but that was last year. As most Owl fans know, there was a time when Q. Rose made too many turnovers, but he figured out how to avoid turnovers, and as you yourself have pointed out, players can learn to cut down on their personal fouls.

If Forrester cuts down on turnovers and fouls, he'll get more playing time this season. He'll also have to improve his positioning, as you've pointed out, and to do a better job of protecting the basket.

The Owls will need a scorer like JF in the lineup, and they're sure not likely to get a lot of scoring out of JP, unless he starts hitting more shots.

........................................

p.s. The team got a blow this week with the news that Freshman Jahlil White had a season-ending meniscus tear, and will start the season with only 8 active players, unless Butler transfer Khalif Battle gets a waiver.

The waiver had been expected, since Battle has moved back to his home region from Indiana, and there has been no explanation for the delay in getting a waiver.
11-22-2020 10:52 PM
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Joprior23 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
I feel like Pesik went anti-homer by putting Caleb Mills 3. He’s the best player in the conference and has a real chance at being an All-American this season.
11-23-2020 12:16 AM
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SadderBudweiser Offline
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Post: #37
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
It’s time for some hoops!

SMU opens Wednesday night with Southwest Somethingorother State.
Yor Anei out with a blood infection indefinitely and still no waiver.
Ty Jolly absent from practice last week for undisclosed reasons.
Darius McBride out for a while due to a (Not overly serious)car accident .... and that’s McBride NOT McNeil.... the freshman recruit NOT the Cal transfer.

SMU without those still have a solid seven: Davis, McNeil, Bandoumel, Hunt, Chaggy, Jasey, Chas Smith IV. Also looking to see if Jahmar Young or Ray can contribute meaningful minutes.
At full strength it’s a pretty solid roster. A date at Dayton is just around the corner.
(This post was last modified: 11-23-2020 07:30 AM by SadderBudweiser.)
11-23-2020 07:29 AM
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Miggy Offline
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Post: #38
RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-22-2020 10:52 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 10:13 PM)Miggy Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 06:19 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 05:20 AM)DeeHee33 Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 02:58 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Three responses:

1) You haven't defined what you mean by best "scorers." Do you mean that they are the best shooters, in terms of FG%, or that they score the most points per minute of play, or that they score the most points per shot?

2) With respect to Dunn and Ademokoya, all we have are their high school stats, or in Dunn's case, his stats in preseason scrimmages (which don't tend to generalize to play during the season). Thus, it's nearly impossible to compare them with Temple's experienced players who have D1 stats, unless we're going to compare the high school stats of the team's college juniors and seniors those of the team's freshmen.

In other words, although some may have inside information about their scoring abilities, the rest of us have no basis of estimating what kind of D1 level scorers Ademokoya and Dunn are going to be. However, we'll start getting data on them fairly soon.


3) You mistakenly omitted Jake Forrester from the list of the team's best scorers.

.

Let's begin with the definition of best "scorers."

a) If a "good scorer" is defined as an efficient shooter, Jake Forrester (overall FG% and FG2%: .533) would have to be listed among the team's best scorers. In comparison, Perry's overall FG% was .482, and Barry's overall FG% was .466 last season. Comparing them in terms of FG2%, Forrester's FG2% was .533, Perry's FG2% was .569, and Barry's FG2% was .500.

NOTE: Transfer Sage Tolbert's overall FG% last season was .550. His FG2% was .570.

b) If a "good scorer" is defined in terms of points scored per minute of play, Jake Forrester (0.43 points per minute (ppm) in 2019-20) was the top scorer on the team, because he led all of the team's returning D1 players on the team in points scored per minute of play last season. In comparison, Barry scored 0.37 ppm and Perry scored 0.35 ppm.

NOTE: Transfer Sage Tolbert scored 0.3525 ppm last season.

c) If a good "scorer" is definied in terms of points scored per field goal attempt (FGA), Perry and Barry lead the way with 1.36 points per FGA last season, but Forrester (1.29 point per FGA) is still likely to be one of the better scorers on the team according to this criterion, considering the fact that Nate Pierre-Louis, a preseason 2018-19 all-conference player only scored 1.21 points per FGA last season, while the star of the team last season - Quinton Rose - only scored 1.13 points per FGA last season.

NOTE: Temple transfer PF Sage Tolbert led Perry, Barry, and Forrester in points scored per FGA last season (1.57 points per FGA).

Houston
Cincinnati
SMU
Tulsa
Memphis
USF
ECU
Temple
Tulane
UCF
Wichita State

Those are Temple’s four players who should average the most post per game. Some are good three-point shooters, others are good two-point shooters. Even though Forrester shoots two’s fairly well, he is not included in that group because he commits far too many turnovers, and he by playing in the low-post prevents perimeter players from getting to the hoop.

Forrester scored 17.8 points per 40 minutes of play last season. It's going to be hard for any Owl player to surpass that in 2020-21.

True, his playing time was limited due to turnovers and fouls, but that was last year. As most Owl fans know, there was a time when Q. Rose made too many turnovers, but he figured out how to avoid turnovers, and as you yourself have pointed out, players can learn to cut down on their personal fouls.

If Forrester cuts down on turnovers and fouls, he'll get more playing time this season. He'll also have to improve his positioning, as you've pointed out, and to do a better job of protecting the basket.

The Owls will need a scorer like JF in the lineup, and they're sure not likely to get a lot of scoring out of JP, unless he starts hitting more shots.

........................................

p.s. The team got a blow this week with the news that Freshman Jahlil White had a season-ending meniscus tear, and will start the season with only 8 active players, unless Butler transfer Khalif Battle gets a waiver.

The waiver had been expected, since Battle has moved back to his home region from Indiana, and there has been no explanation for the delay in getting a waiver.

Temple played it’s best bb when Temple spread the court and didn’t play Forrester in the low-post. As Forrester playing in the low-post kept Temple’s perimeter players from getting to the rim. This is supported by the fact that Temple scored only 93.1 points per 100 possessions in conference play when Forrester was on the court. That’s lower than when Moorman played as Temple averaged 95.9 points per 100 possessions when he played as Moorman spreads the court for Temple.

Forrester was also Temple worse interior defender as conference opponents averaged 105.1 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court.

You must evaluate a player on how he effects the team’s when he plays. Forrester has been a hindrance to team play. One can hope he improves his excessive turnovers which hurt Temple’s offense, but given the fact that he’s only a low-post player such will hurt Temple from being competitive.

A Moorman-Perry would be Temple’s best front court.
(This post was last modified: 11-23-2020 10:36 AM by Miggy.)
11-23-2020 10:33 AM
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RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
How many teams are going to be like "Holy Sh*t, Keith Williams is still in school?"
11-23-2020 11:02 AM
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Pony94 Offline
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RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
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11-23-2020 11:20 AM
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