jedclampett
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RE: One week till College Basketball is BACK! Projection and Rankings
(11-22-2020 10:13 PM)Miggy Wrote: (11-20-2020 06:19 AM)jedclampett Wrote: (11-20-2020 05:20 AM)DeeHee33 Wrote: (11-20-2020 02:58 AM)jedclampett Wrote: (11-19-2020 09:59 PM)Miggy Wrote: Temple’s Dre Perry, freshman Quincy Ademokoya , Brandon Barry, and Damian Dunn are Temple’s four best scorers. Dunn deadly two point shooter but not suited to play PG. Strickland’s excellent three-point shooting will help when he recovers from his shoulder surgery. Moorman needs to return to playing like he did his freshmen and sophomore seasons. Forrester commits excessive turnovers and fouls. Transfer K. Battle has not to date been declared eligible to play this season.
Three responses:
1) You haven't defined what you mean by best "scorers." Do you mean that they are the best shooters, in terms of FG%, or that they score the most points per minute of play, or that they score the most points per shot?
2) With respect to Dunn and Ademokoya, all we have are their high school stats, or in Dunn's case, his stats in preseason scrimmages (which don't tend to generalize to play during the season). Thus, it's nearly impossible to compare them with Temple's experienced players who have D1 stats, unless we're going to compare the high school stats of the team's college juniors and seniors those of the team's freshmen.
In other words, although some may have inside information about their scoring abilities, the rest of us have no basis of estimating what kind of D1 level scorers Ademokoya and Dunn are going to be. However, we'll start getting data on them fairly soon.
3) You mistakenly omitted Jake Forrester from the list of the team's best scorers.
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Let's begin with the definition of best "scorers."
a) If a "good scorer" is defined as an efficient shooter, Jake Forrester (overall FG% and FG2%: .533) would have to be listed among the team's best scorers. In comparison, Perry's overall FG% was .482, and Barry's overall FG% was .466 last season. Comparing them in terms of FG2%, Forrester's FG2% was .533, Perry's FG2% was .569, and Barry's FG2% was .500.
NOTE: Transfer Sage Tolbert's overall FG% last season was .550. His FG2% was .570.
b) If a "good scorer" is defined in terms of points scored per minute of play, Jake Forrester (0.43 points per minute (ppm) in 2019-20) was the top scorer on the team, because he led all of the team's returning D1 players on the team in points scored per minute of play last season. In comparison, Barry scored 0.37 ppm and Perry scored 0.35 ppm.
NOTE: Transfer Sage Tolbert scored 0.3525 ppm last season.
c) If a good "scorer" is definied in terms of points scored per field goal attempt (FGA), Perry and Barry lead the way with 1.36 points per FGA last season, but Forrester (1.29 point per FGA) is still likely to be one of the better scorers on the team according to this criterion, considering the fact that Nate Pierre-Louis, a preseason 2018-19 all-conference player only scored 1.21 points per FGA last season, while the star of the team last season - Quinton Rose - only scored 1.13 points per FGA last season.
NOTE: Temple transfer PF Sage Tolbert led Perry, Barry, and Forrester in points scored per FGA last season (1.57 points per FGA).
Houston
Cincinnati
SMU
Tulsa
Memphis
USF
ECU
Temple
Tulane
UCF
Wichita State
Those are Temple’s four players who should average the most post per game. Some are good three-point shooters, others are good two-point shooters. Even though Forrester shoots two’s fairly well, he is not included in that group because he commits far too many turnovers, and he by playing in the low-post prevents perimeter players from getting to the hoop.
Forrester scored 17.8 points per 40 minutes of play last season. It's going to be hard for any Owl player to surpass that in 2020-21.
True, his playing time was limited due to turnovers and fouls, but that was last year. As most Owl fans know, there was a time when Q. Rose made too many turnovers, but he figured out how to avoid turnovers, and as you yourself have pointed out, players can learn to cut down on their personal fouls.
If Forrester cuts down on turnovers and fouls, he'll get more playing time this season. He'll also have to improve his positioning, as you've pointed out, and to do a better job of protecting the basket.
The Owls will need a scorer like JF in the lineup, and they're sure not likely to get a lot of scoring out of JP, unless he starts hitting more shots.
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p.s. The team got a blow this week with the news that Freshman Jahlil White had a season-ending meniscus tear, and will start the season with only 8 active players, unless Butler transfer Khalif Battle gets a waiver.
The waiver had been expected, since Battle has moved back to his home region from Indiana, and there has been no explanation for the delay in getting a waiver.
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