Got to establish the running game early, which I’m optimistic we can do after watching the Wolves Dline get handled by Coastal and GSU, If we do, and they have to commit their lbs to stop the run play action should be their all day. But, like Saint said, we start slow, and especially we get some early 3 and outs, could be down a couple of scores half way thur the first quarter.
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2020 08:07 PM by moehler.)
The big unknown variable is the new leadership on Defense at stAte since letting the old guys go after they averaged giving up 50+ ponits per game in SBC play this year and pretty much sucked last year . . . no offense to CCU or GSU offenses but the defensive "talent" on stAte isn't THAT bad, surely . . . who knows how much can be fixed in one week under the new leadership . . .
I haven't been very impressed with our offense so far this season. I understand new OC in 3 years and stuff, but I feel the loss of Sutton hurts more than us App fans think. There hasn't been the explosion out of the passing game minus a contested catch by Hannigan every once in a while. Our run game is stout, but need to see more from our passing game to help the run for me to feel comfortable enough about this team to remaining dominate.
I think defense will be fine. Our D vs the Arky State passing attack should be fun to watch.
I'd come out passing on the first series as they attempt to stack the box, it loosens, then pound the run thereafter. I wouldn't be surprise to see App try and slow the game down for the most part.
(10-22-2020 08:45 AM)Saint3333 Wrote: I'd come out passing on the first series as they attempt to stack the box, it loosens, then pound the run thereafter. I wouldn't be surprise to see App try and slow the game down for the most part.
Yeah, Satt was a master craftsman at slowing the game down when needed. I'm sure that Coach Clark has taken lots of notes.
(10-22-2020 09:48 AM)sdcritter Wrote: Vegas is rarely wrong. That said, go stAte!
Sometimes the accuracy of the Vegas lines keeps me up at night. It is downright freaky how accurate they are in college, down to the game totals and 2 missed extra points in the ULL/Coastal Game.
(10-22-2020 09:48 AM)sdcritter Wrote: Vegas is rarely wrong. That said, go stAte!
Vegas is never truly wrong in the grand scheme of things, at least from a profit standpoint. The general public that helps influence where the line ends up is mostly accurate. 14 point underdogs (ARKST in this scenario) win something like 14% of the time. As the lines get further from 0, the percentage chance an underdog will win get's lower and lower. I suspect these percentages haven't changed much over the year, so in that sense being based on odds, they're never "wrong" per se.
What I would like to know is the margin of error on the point spreads and see how close it is. According to the following, roughly speaking, point spreads of 28 or less are typically within 1%. Not bad. At higher spreads like 42 and above, you start to see 4 to 6%, as those are typically harder to judge accurately.
(10-22-2020 09:48 AM)sdcritter Wrote: Vegas is rarely wrong. That said, go stAte!
Vegas is never truly wrong in the grand scheme of things, at least from a profit standpoint. The general public that helps influence where the line ends up is mostly accurate. 14 point underdogs (ARKST in this scenario) win something like 14% of the time. As the lines get further from 0, the percentage chance an underdog will win get's lower and lower. I suspect these percentages haven't changed much over the year, so in that sense being based on odds, they're never "wrong" per se.
What I would like to know is the margin of error on the point spreads and see how close it is. According to the following, roughly speaking, point spreads of 28 or less are typically within 1%. Not bad. At higher spreads like 42 and above, you start to see 4 to 6%, as those are typically harder to judge accurately.
14% chance of winning with those Vegas numbers. Do you know how ESPN does win probability? Right now Ark State has a 17% chance at ESPN. Close percentages, but different.
(10-22-2020 09:48 AM)sdcritter Wrote: Vegas is rarely wrong. That said, go stAte!
Vegas is never truly wrong in the grand scheme of things, at least from a profit standpoint. The general public that helps influence where the line ends up is mostly accurate. 14 point underdogs (ARKST in this scenario) win something like 14% of the time. As the lines get further from 0, the percentage chance an underdog will win get's lower and lower. I suspect these percentages haven't changed much over the year, so in that sense being based on odds, they're never "wrong" per se.
What I would like to know is the margin of error on the point spreads and see how close it is. According to the following, roughly speaking, point spreads of 28 or less are typically within 1%. Not bad. At higher spreads like 42 and above, you start to see 4 to 6%, as those are typically harder to judge accurately.
14% chance of winning with those Vegas numbers. Do you know how ESPN does win probability? Right now Ark State has a 17% chance at ESPN. Close percentages, but different.
This is a common misconception. Vegas doesn't set the lines to predict the outcome, they set the lines to achieve a roughly 50/50 split in betting as they enjoy the juice (10% of bets). The line moves to help with this allocation. The line started at -10 and moved to -13 as more people selected App, Vegas attempted to appeal to the Ark St. by moving the line up.
Sharps get in early (day of line setting) giving App fans a good feeling, public money coming in late given me a worse feeling moving the line up further.
I'd take Ark St. -13 no doubt if I were forced to bet this one.
(10-22-2020 11:51 AM)Saint3333 Wrote: This is a common misconception. Vegas doesn't set the lines to predict the outcome, they set the lines to achieve a roughly 50/50 split in betting as they enjoy the juice (10% of bets). The line moves to help with this allocation. The line started at -10 and moved to -13 as more people selected App, Vegas attempted to appeal to the Ark St. by moving the line up.
Sharps get in early (day of line setting) giving App fans a good feeling, public money coming in late given me a worse feeling moving the line up further.
I'd take Ark St. -13 no doubt if I were forced to bet this one.
(10-22-2020 09:48 AM)sdcritter Wrote: Vegas is rarely wrong. That said, go stAte!
Vegas is not trying to predict the score ... they are trying to get even money on both sides.
Edit: I see Saint beat me to it.
I don't think that's what they mean when they (and I) say that. Most people are aware of how lines are set to maximize profit and ensure the house never loses. It's a simple statement that means a 14 point favorite is not likely to lose. These aren't arbitrary numbers being pulled out of one's ass. Because of what you said, the line is a good indication of where the betting public is and what they "think" in a collective sense. The percentages of an underdog beating the spread vs the favorite beating the spread is nearly 50/50, a less than 1% margin of error. In this sense, the odds, in a holistic sense, are extremely accurate over the long haul.
In rare occasions, you may be able to catch a team trending down, and another trending up, and vegas / the public hasn't given the trend its due, and you can cash in, but again I think it's rare, and just when you think you've hit the trend right, the favorite proves why they were the favorite and you're left being disappointed in the rising underdog.