(03-17-2020 09:36 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  For most of us, the real danger is not dying from getting sick from a virus that will spread. The danger is in not taking steps to address what some call an overreaction in dealing with the virus.

Overreaction or not, spend some time and money now to be able to ride out what could be a smooth couple weeks or very turbulent water. Take out the proverbial insurance policy on getting by.

I've got enough food and supplies I could make it rationing probably a month.

so everyone is to isolate and not work or go to school or a restaurant or anywhere for 2-3 weeks at least...and then what?? Does that kill the virus? Won't the virus still be waiting out there after the 2-3 weeks are up, since few people have developed immunities to it? So then we re-isolate and don't work, and no school for 2-3 more weeks only to find the virus still out there?? This thing is a lot closer to the chicken pox than anthrax. What do you do with chicken pox whne you don;t have a vaccine? You go ahead and expose everyone to it so they can build up immunities and you help them get through it. Sure, some will die from the chicken pox, but most, the vast majority won;t. You don;t shut down the entire country for the chicken pox.

And spending $1 Trillion dollars or more just to give most people $1,000 that won't even pay one month's rent or mortgage, not to mention other bills? And then again, another $1 trillion...and another and another??? When we are already $12 trillion in debt from the last administration? How does this make any sense? Put unemployment up to 20-30% when it was at 3-3.5%, destroy 1/3 of wealth in a few days, destroy many small businesses and families who own them and workers who rely on them...for what??? just so a few sick people who were pretty much going to succumb to something else anyway can have a few more months? This is insanity!

When generals were planning Normandy in WWII they knew full well many, many people would die on that day, and in the days to come. So the answer should have been not to invade just to save a few lives??? What about the millions being exterminated in death camps by evil regimes, much like North Korea and, yes, China today, albeit out of sight so out of mind?? Sometimes you have to allow nature to take its course...and hers' one of them. Yes, hand wash, yes, clean ourselves, yes, if someone individually contracts quarantine them and try to help them best you can, but we have neither the time, nor money to halt and destroy an entire country for something that, in its essence will come and pass through on its own, and then most everyone will be safe because they will recover if they get it and the virus will be a concern of the past without the massive debt no one can afford, without destroying the economy which no one can afford, and without jacking up unemployment and destroying businesses, many of them for good, which no one can afford. We can afford to allow the virus to take its course. We cannot afford trillions upon trillions and the fear that comes from not having a job for hundreds of millions. The course taken is not the right one, we need to stop it and reverse it. If this same scenario had played out during the Eisenhower years, he would have said "Baseball, you cannot shut down because America needs you; Americans, we have fought polio and other illnesses far worse without shutting down our society and economy and we pulled through and were stronger for it. yes, we lost a few, but we survived as a nation. What we are doing is a socialist's wet dream.

Small businesses, restaurant owners and millions more Americans who have their whole lives and their families' and workers wrapped up from years of work should openly defy this insanity and state they are Americans and they will not be destroyed by this insanity. Play ball, eat out, and go to work and school,. Wash your hands, keep clean and pray in churches together like we used to do when we got through far worse than this together. Like the generals who sent those many into a battle they knew some would not return from, we must be willing to do our best but make the rational decisions best for all Americans, not the fear-based decisions to avoid conflict and destroy ourselves and our country with debt and destruction.

I agree somewhat. Are we really flattening the curve or pushing it out and just delaying the inevitable?

(03-18-2020 07:27 AM)DFWMINER Wrote:  I agree somewhat. Are we really flattening the curve or pushing it out and just delaying the inevitable?

I posted this link earlier, but this does a great job of demonstrating the concept of "flattening the curve". It's the same concept we use with storm water detention ponds -- attempt to decrease the peak down to the capacity of downstream channels. In the case of coronavirus, it's an attempt to decrease the peak down to the capacity of our health care system.

Washington Post has created a graphic virus simulator. Best explanation and demonstration I've seen showing the spread of a virus and how several strategies work to slow the spread.

Get over the Washington Post address and click on this link. This is not a political story, just straight math/statistics/science.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/...simulator/

It's simplified, not a perfect simulation, but they discuss the assumptions.

I almost lost it at the office (yes I'm working in the office, you home working cowards!).. this nurse basically went on a rant about stupid people and c-19

You still are more at risk of getting something from a tick or mosquito. An Uncle was diagnosed with West Nile a few years ago. He still can't feel his finger tips. Bad stuff. I know no one with COVID19.

Sorry, I don't believe twitter and USADooday soundbites will ever substitute for the depth of books and newspapers, but that's personal preference. Children and many adults today it seems don't understand depth, and that's been a big problem for a few decades that hurts us all.

I'll agree that heretofore, many people do not exhibit common sense, that hopefully we can agree on. Nevertheless, it's high time and a sadly opportune moment for people to examine their behaviors and to choose to change them for the better: for themselves, their families (if they have them anymore) and the country as a whole. Our country used to rally at times of great distress like this. No more. Look at the markets telling the leaders of both parties that their current courses of action are not the solution, at least not near the whole of it. Whether you like it or not, eventually people will be forced to go back to work, restaurants reopen, businesses and churches as well, and people will have to face the reality of the situation.

Quarantining for 2 weeks or two months doesn't stop the virus, it may or may not slow it, officials and scientists admit this. It doesn't stop the weak from dying, it may postpone some of it. Without individuals building up immunities which their own bodies can and will eventually do for something as relatively mild as this coronabug, the same sequence likely repeats itself, only with a broken economy, massive unemployment, debt and joblessness. Therefore, creating those conditions does not seem responsible in the wake of the choices available.

We have to pick our poison here, there is no solution where some do not get hurt. The only thing is, we have to recognize what this bug is and is not. Were this Anthrax, then the kind of things we are doing might be more warranted. It is clearly not that, according to every health official and scientist. Instead, it is for most a mild to middling nuisance, and for a few will be their end--which they would face from a number of other things no one cares about or changes their behavior to stop. No one wants anyone to die, in war or in life, but acceptance that life is not eternal, which many have lost, is part of understanding how to make these kinds of decisions where several things compete directly against eachother. The Constitution establishes the government to promote the COMMON Welfare, not universal guarantee of all from any harm. Many died to fight and win our freedom in the Revolution, yet we cower from that now. We'd never have a country without willingness to face things directly and with national courage. We need to set examples here--play ball, while taking prudent measures to keep people healthy, and any sick players can sit out for a few weeks individually.

There is no good reason we can't have fans filling the stands who are mostly under 60 or 50. None. So protect old people and the sick by allowing them to stay home and isolate for a few weeks or months, that is common sense. The rest of America needs to stay in the game and support our economy and eachother. That is wise and prudent, and staying in the game is the American thing to do and the American way of life.

If you want nationalism, govt support payments and govt control of your lives in the streets, you can find that in China, Cuba, Russia, Venezuela, and a number of other backwards countries that do not work for their people or for the common good. Now, let's get back to work immediately in what is and can in short time again be the greatest nation and greatest economy on the planet.

(03-18-2020 05:14 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Sorry, I don't believe twitter and USADooday soundbites will ever substitute for the depth of books and newspapers, but that's personal preference. Children and many adults today it seems don't understand depth, and that's been a big problem for a few decades that hurts us all.

I'll agree that heretofore, many people do not exhibit common sense, that hopefully we can agree on. Nevertheless, it's high time and a sadly opportune moment for people to examine their behaviors and to choose to change them for the better: for themselves, their families (if they have them anymore) and the country as a whole. Our country used to rally at times of great distress like this. No more. Look at the markets telling the leaders of both parties that their current courses of action are not the solution, at least not near the whole of it. Whether you like it or not, eventually people will be forced to go back to work, restaurants reopen, businesses and churches as well, and people will have to face the reality of the situation.

Quarantining for 2 weeks or two months doesn't stop the virus, it may or may not slow it, officials and scientists admit this. It doesn't stop the weak from dying, it may postpone some of it. Without individuals building up immunities which their own bodies can and will eventually do for something as relatively mild as this coronabug, the same sequence likely repeats itself, only with a broken economy, massive unemployment, debt and joblessness. Therefore, creating those conditions does not seem responsible in the wake of the choices available.

We have to pick our poison here, there is no solution where some do not get hurt. The only thing is, we have to recognize what this bug is and is not. Were this Anthrax, then the kind of things we are doing might be more warranted. It is clearly not that, according to every health official and scientist. Instead, it is for most a mild to middling nuisance, and for a few will be their end--which they would face from a number of other things no one cares about or changes their behavior to stop. No one wants anyone to die, in war or in life, but acceptance that life is not eternal, which many have lost, is part of understanding how to make these kinds of decisions where several things compete directly against eachother. The Constitution establishes the government to promote the COMMON Welfare, not universal guarantee of all from any harm. Many died to fight and win our freedom in the Revolution, yet we cower from that now. We'd never have a country without willingness to face things directly and with national courage. We need to set examples here--play ball, while taking prudent measures to keep people healthy, and any sick players can sit out for a few weeks individually.

There is no good reason we can't have fans filling the stands who are mostly under 60 or 50. None. So protect old people and the sick by allowing them to stay home and isolate for a few weeks or months, that is common sense. The rest of America needs to stay in the game and support our economy and eachother. That is wise and prudent, and staying in the game is the American thing to do and the American way of life.

If you want nationalism, govt support payments and govt control of your lives in the streets, you can find that in China, Cuba, Russia, Venezuela, and a number of other backwards countries that do not work for their people or for the common good. Now, let's get back to work immediately in what is and can in short time again be the greatest nation and greatest economy on the planet.

At this point I would like to see reported cases eliminated from the news. Granted I think the deaths shouldn't be reported either but if those numbers are going to be provided then they should be put in context with other things that whack large swaths of Americans every year (flu, car accidents, heart disease, etc.) I think acting as a nation are really concerned about life when we in truth aren't is what's driving this panic.

Few months ago my local news was announcing how many daily cases of West Nile was reported. Not any more.

(03-18-2020 12:40 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  What we are doing is a socialist's wet dream.

That thought has also crossed my mind. I've heard some even go so far as to suggest that it's kind of a trial run (for the next time). Anybody here really believe that if politicians feel that they can take advantage of a crisis and remove some of our rights, what is to stop them in the future? There are already far too many Americans that look to government to solve all their problems. In this crisis, it feels all too natural to look to them.

I have wrestled with it and decided I can live with the draconian measures this time if it does indeed flatten the curve and we can avoid having hospitals overrun by crowds they are nowhere near prepared for.

I feel for small business owners.

(03-18-2020 07:27 AM)DFWMINER Wrote:  I agree somewhat. Are we really flattening the curve or pushing it out and just delaying the inevitable?

Can someone here explain rationally how tanking the economy on purpose by shuttering it, and spending like Socialist's Wet Dreams both kills the virus AND stops it from re-starting once the quarantines are lifted when few have built up antibody resistance to the virus by actually going through having it and getting over it naturally?

I have yet to hear any rational explanation, other than to show "Something" is being done by the gub'mint. I don't just want to do "Something", especially if it destroys the economy for most in doing "something" if it won't be effective, and there seems no connection to what is being screamed about in the media and what actually may be effective in the long run, unpleasant as it may be. So my question remains: is this really worth doing? Someone here show me how effectively that this affects the virus not coming back and still killing the same people it would have it it just ran its course the first time through.

(03-18-2020 06:09 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(03-18-2020 07:27 AM)DFWMINER Wrote:  I agree somewhat. Are we really flattening the curve or pushing it out and just delaying the inevitable?

Can someone here explain rationally how tanking the economy on purpose by shuttering it, and spending like Socialist's Wet Dreams both kills the virus AND stops it from re-starting once the quarantines are lifted when few have built up antibody resistance to the virus by actually going through having it and getting over it naturally?

I have yet to hear any rational explanation, other than to show "Something" is being done by the gub'mint. I don't just want to do "Something", especially if it destroys the economy for most in doing "something" if it won't be effective, and there seems no connection to what is being screamed about in the media and what actually may be effective in the long run, unpleasant as it may be. So my question remains: is this really worth doing? Someone here show me how effectively that this affects the virus not coming back and still killing the same people it would have it it just ran its course the first time through.

The plan comes from epidemiologists who job is to stop pandemics, consequence be damned. The problem is that their plans up until now were all theoretical. They keep adding two weeks in the hope that reality will match there models. At some point we are going to get an infected explosion, proving the entire ‘flatten the curve’ idea pointless.

This is from a very respected Dr of Medicine from Stanford University....

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.


https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fi...able-data/

My question is How many people are going to die from this that never test positive for the virus? ie. Suicide, murder, homelessness etc. Because it is going to get BAD. The housing market is going to crash and foreclosures will be worse than 2008.

(03-18-2020 09:09 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  You still are more at risk of getting something from a tick or mosquito. An Uncle was diagnosed with West Nile a few years ago. He still can't feel his finger tips. Bad stuff. I know no one with COVID19.

That's minor compared to my BIL who passed away finally from the WNV. he was completely bed ridden for about 4/5 years. He spent most of his time sleeping. What a non-life. That's when I wonder if it's really true that it's a sin to take your own life because I would NEVER want to "live" like that in ANY circumstance. My poor wife is SO afraid that it could be her next in that situation, she has MSA. It's hard man, not knowing the future.

(03-18-2020 09:55 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  My question is How many people are going to die from this that never test positive for the virus? ie. Suicide, murder, homelessness etc. Because it is going to get BAD. The housing market is going to crash and foreclosures will be worse than 2008.

Sadly that death toll will never be measured.

Another analysis suggesting an overreaction.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavi...t-pandemic

(03-18-2020 09:33 PM)DFWMINER Wrote:  This is from a very respected Dr of Medicine from Stanford University....

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.


https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fi...able-data/

The link you provided is titled: "A Fiasco in the making as the Coronavirus pandemic takes hold We Are Making Decisions Without Reliable Data" and strongly suggests the morbidity numbers have been publicly exaggerated for reasons that have their root in other agendas besides science and data, perhaps to cause a panic and economic damage for reasons other than true rational safety and prudence.

Quote:Clearly, the impact on elderly and immunocompromised individuals is severe, with nearly 90% of total deaths coming from individuals 60 and over. But these data do not call for shutting down all public and private facilities given the extraordinarily low rates of death in the population under 50. The adaptive responses should reduce the exposures in the high-risk groups, given the tendency for the coronavirus to weaken over time.

Quote:So what then should be done?

The first point is to target interventions where needed, toward high-risk populations, including older people and other people with health conditions that render them more susceptible to disease. But the current organized panic in the United States does not seem justified on the best reading of the data. In dealing with this point, it is critical to note that the rapid decline in the incidence of new cases and death in China suggests that cases in Italy will not continue to rise exponentially over the next several weeks. Moreover, it is unlikely that the healthcare system in the United States will be compromised in the same fashion as the Italian healthcare system in the wake of its quick viral spread. The amount of voluntary and forced separation in the United States has gotten very extensive very quickly, which should influence rates of infection sooner rather than later.

Perhaps my analysis is all wrong, even deeply flawed. But the stakes are too high to continue on the current course without reexamining the data and the erroneous models that are predicting doom.

I appreciate the link and the data you quoted, DFW. It seems more evidence the current overreaction is likely and unnecessary fiasco. Who would want that? Perhaps some who could not find a way to win an election 3 1/2 years ago, and seemed doomed to lose yet another this fall due to lack of actual leadership qualities in their candidates and lack of any good ideas for the country, but a wish to topple the current leadership by causing a severe recession by any means they could. I am disappointed by the President and his leadership team for seemingly playing into their hands to this point, difficult as the situation may be. I will still be voting for Pres Trump, as there is no viable alternative for now that could or would demonstrably do better (most would do worse IMO). I hope he can maneuver through this better from this point forward and return people to work and school quicker that seems to be the plan at the moment.

(03-19-2020 03:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Another analysis suggesting an overreaction.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavi...t-pandemic

Thanks for that link, bullet.

Quote:From this available data, it seems more probable than not that the total number of cases world-wide will peak out at well under 1 million, with the total number of deaths at under 50,000 (up about eightfold). In the United States, if the total death toll increases at about the same rate, the current 67 deaths should translate into about 500 deaths at the end. Of course, every life lost is a tragedy—and the potential loss of 50,000 lives world-wide would be appalling—but those deaths stemming from the coronavirus are not more tragic than others, so that the same social calculus applies here that should apply in other cases.

The question I've been wondering since the beginning of this is: while can take take a range of measures from benign to drastic, what are the goals in our response, how likely are they to be effective (with what assurance based on the data/information/past experience we have) and what are the OTHER COSTS of taking these actions that can themselves have damaging effects to people as bad or worse than the effects of the virus and our response to it itself?

Doctors and scientists are certainly important contributors of perspective and information, but they cannot be and should not be the overriding decision-makers in this type of situation. They must be balanced with economic perspectives that hold as much weight as medical implications, social/public safety perspectives (emptying jails to prevent infections? Pretty poor decision-making if you ask me), and defense considerations: an enemy country's leadership seems to have at best mishandled and withheld vital information on this until it got too out of hand, and may not have America's best interests in mind, so we must steer our own course.

It seemed clear at the outset, and remains even moreso now that a goal of preventing any deaths from this coronabug at any costs is unattainable. I believe the goal should be measuring this coronabug in its proper perspective with other possible pathogens like anthrax, polio, HIV etc...

No matter what, at some point the difficult decisions will need to be made to re-start normal society, send people back to work and schools and interactions. The short-term consequences of the current course of action will hopefully be mitigating, but it is hard to see how permanent damage has not been done by these shut-downs. If in fact the virus remains out there, and re-infections occur after a brief pause, and more-susceptible people are still dying, then it would seem to have not been worth the economic and societal disruption we fail to administer to far worse health problems that we consider a normal part of life. I don't see enough evidence that the actions taken will be justified so I question them. The information appears to be this can and should be left to run its course, and it too shall pass as the vast majority build up immunities naturally like most (but not all) did from childhood diseases until and unless an effective vaccine is designed and tested.

The thing that is NEVER brought up is, "What is the threshold we are trying to attain in which all of this will end and restaurants, businesses, schools etc. will open back up?" As long as there is testing people will have this virus. It is not going away, EVER. Just like Swine flu, Sars, Mers, you name it.