Three Man Weave preview
12. Rice
Key Returners: Chris Mullins, Ako Adams, Robert Martin, Drew Peterson, Trey Murphy, Josh Parrish
Key Losses: Quentin Millora-Brown (transfer), Jack Williams
Key Newcomers: Zach Crisler, Quincy Olivari, Max Fiedler, Tommy McCarthy (Harvard)
Lineup:
Outlook: Year two of the Scott Pera era (the P-era!!) saw the Owls take slight steps forward despite personnel losses last offseason, as Rice saw a 6-win improvement overall, including going from 4-14 to 8-10 within Conference USA. Granted, three of those wins came after the new C-USA “flex scheduling” had sorted the Owls into the league’s bottom tier, but wins are wins. For a team that ranked 318th nationally in minutes continuity and 333rd in experience, per KenPom, showing improvement of any kind is notable, and it’s reasonable to expect that roster to progress even more this year.
Pera was known more as a recruiter in his assistant days while working under Herb Sendek at Arizona State, Jerome Allen at Penn, and Mike Rhoades at Rice – perhaps the name James Harden rings a bell? That’s an extremely diverse set of coaching styles to have been a part of, though, and it seems Pera has been trying to settle on his own identity as a head coach.
Part of the reason for Rice’s improvement was one of the more drastic stylistic shifts in the country for a team playing under the same coach. In Pera’s first year, the Owls were one of the most zone-heavy teams in the country, playing it 93% of the time, but that number dropped precipitously to only 2% in 2018-19, with many telling defensive stats trending similarly:
Unsurprisingly, the Owls gave up fewer threes and assisted jumpers while beefing up their defensive rebounding, all clear signs of moving away from zone. Pera’s man-to-man was also a more conservative one, sitting back and walling off the paint rather than extending into passing lanes.
The shift to man-to-man was aided by the addition of a strong recruiting class and two “down-transfers,” increasing the depth, size, and athleticism of the roster. Sophomores Drew Peterson and Trey Murphy are two taller wings, and TCU transfer Josh Parrish is a high-level athlete and defensive whiz. The “size” portion took a hit this offseason, though, as sophomore Quentin Millora-Brown transferred and grad transfer Jack Williams graduated. That means early playing time for freshmen Zach Crisler and Max Fiedler, two 3-star recruits.
Pera also showed a very distinct system offensively: put the ball in the hands of his playmakers, namely senior Ako Adams and sophomore Chris Mullins, and let them go to work. Rice ran one of the highest percentages of ball screens in the country, per Synergy, while also ranking highly in dribble handoffs. With both guards back, expect that to continue, and Mullins in particular should amp up his efficiency with more experience. Freshman Quincy Olivari and Harvard grad transfer Tommy McCarthy provide depth, but neither should be leaned on as a primary piece this year. Stretch four Robert Martin helps extend the defense with his perimeter shooting, and Pera’s embrace of the deep ball has paid dividends thus far in his tenure.
Bottom Line: As Pera grows more comfortable in his position, a more cogent identity should form on the court for the Owls, which may in turn slow down the flow of transfers out of the program (this summer was better than last, at least).
Year three will be pivotal to see if he can get the roster to coalesce together into something more than a “bottom tier” C-USA team, and despite the team’s youth in the interior, another step should be expected on the shoulders of Adams, Mullins, and Martin.