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Kayjay Offline
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Post: #1
Men's Hoops Predictions
One advantage of being stuck in an airport for 3 hours yesterday was the ability to hang around in the airport stores and read a couple of the College Basketball Preview Magazines (Athlon and Lindy's, I think). To ward off the boredom...

If I remember correctly, Rice men's hoops was given a preseason prediction ranking of 12th in CUSA in one publication and dead last (14th) in the other. Lindy's was more optimistic about the Owls ability to shoot 3's and stay in games with a much greater potential upside, while Athalon in particular was brutal in noting that what is killing the Owls chances of success is the lack of defensive intensity.

I am hoping the predictions that the various reviewers/sportswriters wrote are based on a lack of research as opposed to hard facts about the program in Coach Pera's 3rd year. Since it is never too early to be talking college hoops, what are your predictions for this years team? (W-L, Ranking in CUSA, and National ranking)
10-09-2019 05:18 PM
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elw4796 Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
I'd imagine that's where we'll sit in almost every set of projections and it's for good reason. We showed fairly little progress defensively as last year went on and we lost our most impactful big man (and maybe overall player). I think there's obviously some upside: you have to expect Mullins, Murphy, Moore and Peterson all to take substantial steps. McCarthy should provide some help at the 1. I'm sure one, or both, of Crisler and Fielder will be good. But everything is relative to the conference and I think most of the other teams will show more improvement.

UAB brings back a starting lineup all five of who will have averaged 20+ minutes, with a good recruiting class. Charlotte is young like us and brings in two power conference transfers who could very easily dominate, plus a bunch of other good recruits. FAU and FIU return solid cores and both have a good influx of recruits/transfers. La Tech's entire starting five will have averaged 25+ minutes. MTSU is in the process of reloading. North Texas has depth for days. ODU will always be contenders because of its defensive system. UTEP's got like four impact transfers plus a young team. UTSA probably has the best two-player combination that CUSA has ever seen. And WKU has four guys who averaged 30+ minutes with good new players.

The only teams that don't look to be better than Rice are Southern Miss and Marshall. And we know D'Antonio has a way of churning out guys who can score the ball, so objectively, the only team you could probably argue Rice is better than is Southern Miss. It sucks, but we're going to have to prove people wrong again.
10-09-2019 05:40 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
I think this is going to be a decent year for CUSA hoops in general. UTEP for instance is going to be a completely different team from last year. We may not have any top-25 teams within the conference, but I bet you there will be a lot of teams in the upper half of the RPI team rankings.

I think we will be better but how much better may depend on whether a freshman big guy develops. It wouldn't surprise me if we try to go smaller with our lineups - which would probably work against most CUSA teams with the exception of Western Kentucky.

If our freshmen from last year have improved, I think we definitely can be better than .500 and perhaps challenge for a postseason tournament of some type or another. Trey Murphy III has a chance to be our best scorer since Morris Almond (?) - he has a way to go to get to that level though.
10-09-2019 05:44 PM
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cr11owl Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
No info on how the new guys look, but I think this has to be a breakout year for the team. We can’t blame youth anymore and while we don’t have a true proven center we have plenty of size. Can we play with the intensity on defense we need? I sure hope so, we’ll be able to rotate through 10 guys and play man almost exclusively. No more zone woes like we had in year 1 even though we have the size to play like a Syracuse if we wanted (if we let Rob be the “PG” we could go 6’6 6’8 6’8 6’9 6’10). Don’t remember a rice lineup like that in the last 10 years.

OOC:
Prediction 9-4.
Best case: 10-3 losses to Arkansas, UH and Liberty
Worst case: 7-6 we don’t win any of the toss up games we need in a breakout year.

In conference:
Prediction: 8-6
Best case: 9-5 we only drop 1 at home to UTEP and steal some on the road
Worst case: 4-10 don’t win any road games. Lost to UTSA, UTEP and ODU at home.

Think my prediction gets us to the top of tier 2 but I’m not sure we can make it to the top tier this year. Prove me wrong Owls. That’s 5 more games, if we’re in the middle tier I’d like us to go 3-2 or 4-1 and put a 20 win season in reach.

Just a guess:
Starter/Bench
G Adams/McCarthy/Myers
G Mullins/Moore/Olivari
G Murphy III/Parrish/Owen
F Martin/Peterson/Moffat
F Fiedler/Crisler/Harrison

Olivari is 3rd on that list but I think he’ll get good playing time. Murphy has the size to guard Forwards which allows flexibility. Hoping Harrison makes a big step forward but if not then I’d play the freshmen.

1 transfer sitting on the bench in 6’10 Ondigo from Tx Tech.
10-09-2019 06:00 PM
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Kayjay Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
I really need to see the transfers and freshmen in action for a game or two before I can solidify my thoughts about this years team. I think that we have seen Coach Pera and staff develop players in a manner where you can actually see them improve throughout the season, which is great to watch and bodes well for the continued development of the team. I have not seen the growth in defensive intensity, which is my biggest concern. I am initially predicting a season record of .500 or a game or two above and slightly above a middle of the pack finish in CUSA. The key indicator I will watch will be the amount of time Ako Adams sees the court throughout the season. If the freshmen and sophomores squeeze PT from Ako s the year progresses, it means that Rice's back court is developing at a level that can be highly competitive in CUSA. The Rice post players are a real enigma. The loss of QMB may have set the team back about a half year until someone grows up and can provide an inside presence for the Owls.
10-11-2019 03:44 PM
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owl95 Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
I am already on record from last year expecting 20 wins. With QMB leaving, that makes it a much tougher proposition but assuming continued development from last year's freshmen, I expect this team to come out ready to play much like Rhoades' 3rd season and I am still going with 20 wins. I also stand by my prediction that MBB will have the best season amongst the major men's sports teams.
10-12-2019 12:33 PM
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elw4796 Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
My prediction prior to pool play is 13-13 (6-8).

OOC Wins: Wayland, Northwestern State, Milwaukee, Lamar, HBU, St. Thomas, Sam Houston
OOC Losses: Arkansas, Penn, Houston, UCSB (very strong team...should be 1 or 2 in Big West), Liberty

Conference Wins: @Marshall, FAU, @Southern Miss, UNT, @Middle, Charlotte
Conference Losses: @WKU, FIU, @La Tech, @UNT, UTSA, UTEP, @UAB, ODU
10-12-2019 12:53 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
(10-12-2019 12:53 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  My prediction prior to pool play is 13-13 (6-8).

OOC Wins: Wayland, Northwestern State, Milwaukee, Lamar, HBU, St. Thomas, Sam Houston
OOC Losses: Arkansas, Penn, Houston, UCSB (very strong team...should be 1 or 2 in Big West), Liberty

Conference Wins: @Marshall, FAU, @Southern Miss, UNT, @Middle, Charlotte
Conference Losses: @WKU, FIU, @La Tech, @UNT, UTSA, UTEP, @UAB, ODU

We'll have 1 additional game TBA in the Bahamas tournament. I think 2-1 is a reasonable goal for that tournament. Your non-conference picks otherwise seem about right. I do think we can be better than that in conference play (maybe 7-7 prior to pool play would be a good guess?).
10-12-2019 03:44 PM
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elw4796 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
UTEP just beat Texas Tech 70-60 in a very early scrimmage, by the way. They'll have five guys who averaged 10+ points, additional transfers from LSU and ASU, and some other returning role players. Don't think they'll win the conference but they'll be up there.
10-12-2019 10:14 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
(10-12-2019 12:53 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  My prediction prior to pool play is 13-13 (6-8).

OOC Wins: Wayland, Northwestern State, Milwaukee, Lamar, HBU, St. Thomas, Sam Houston
OOC Losses: Arkansas, Penn, Houston, UCSB (very strong team...should be 1 or 2 in Big West), Liberty

Conference Wins: @Marshall, FAU, @Southern Miss, UNT, @Middle, Charlotte
Conference Losses: @WKU, FIU, @La Tech, @UNT, UTSA, UTEP, @UAB, ODU

My bold prediction: win a few, lose a few.
10-12-2019 10:22 PM
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elw4796 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
Sounds like we have our secret scrimmage next week against SFA. Should know more about the rotation assuming the stats are published somewhere.
10-21-2019 01:06 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
(10-09-2019 06:00 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  No info on how the new guys look, but I think this has to be a breakout year for the team. We can’t blame youth anymore and while we don’t have a true proven center we have plenty of size. Can we play with the intensity on defense we need? I sure hope so, we’ll be able to rotate through 10 guys and play man almost exclusively. No more zone woes like we had in year 1 even though we have the size to play like a Syracuse if we wanted (if we let Rob be the “PG” we could go 6’6 6’8 6’8 6’9 6’10). Don’t remember a rice lineup like that in the last 10 years.

OOC:
Prediction 9-4.
Best case: 10-3 losses to Arkansas, UH and Liberty
Worst case: 7-6 we don’t win any of the toss up games we need in a breakout year.

In conference:
Prediction: 8-6
Best case: 9-5 we only drop 1 at home to UTEP and steal some on the road
Worst case: 4-10 don’t win any road games. Lost to UTSA, UTEP and ODU at home.

Think my prediction gets us to the top of tier 2 but I’m not sure we can make it to the top tier this year. Prove me wrong Owls. That’s 5 more games, if we’re in the middle tier I’d like us to go 3-2 or 4-1 and put a 20 win season in reach.

Just a guess:
Starter/Bench
G Adams/McCarthy/Myers
G Mullins/Moore/Olivari
G Murphy III/Parrish/Owen
F Martin/Peterson/Moffat
F Fiedler/Crisler/Harrison

Olivari is 3rd on that list but I think he’ll get good playing time. Murphy has the size to guard Forwards which allows flexibility. Hoping Harrison makes a big step forward but if not then I’d play the freshmen.

1 transfer sitting on the bench in 6’10 Ondigo from Tx Tech.

Parish was our best defender last year, and I think nagging injuries impacted his offensive potential. I'd be surprised if he's not starting, though Murphy and Mullins will likely see more playing time.
10-21-2019 03:30 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
(10-21-2019 01:06 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  Sounds like we have our secret scrimmage next week against SFA. Should know more about the rotation assuming the stats are published somewhere.

We also have a Halloween night exhibition game against St.Edwards in Tudor.
10-21-2019 03:32 PM
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elw4796 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
Anybody listen to Pera or Langley's media day interviews? Interested to see if either mentioned any freshmen that are sticking out.
10-21-2019 05:04 PM
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owlatheart Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
Had a chance to catch the Arkansas/UALR exhibition and the Hogs aren't real big this year but Musselman has them playing strong "D" and they are very quick and loaded with 3 point shooters. One kid shot the lights out and hit 8 3's..Isaiah Joe. They have some serious guard play
10-21-2019 09:27 PM
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Kayjay Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
I mentioned earlier that the development of the freshmen guards taking PT from Ako would be a strong indicator on the continued development of the team. I believe the second key indicator may be whether Drew Peterson establishes (re-establishes?) himself as a key contributor to the team as a sophomore. He really seemed to struggle much of the season and eventually lost his starters minutes over the final 8 or so games. Hopefully he is stronger and has regained his confidence/swagger that we saw on the court the first 3 or so games before he found himself competing against players stronger and more intense they he was used to in high school.
10-23-2019 10:30 AM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
(10-23-2019 10:30 AM)Kayjay Wrote:  I mentioned earlier that the development of the freshmen guards taking PT from Ako would be a strong indicator on the continued development of the team. I believe the second key indicator may be whether Drew Peterson establishes (re-establishes?) himself as a key contributor to the team as a sophomore. He really seemed to struggle much of the season and eventually lost his starters minutes over the final 8 or so games. Hopefully he is stronger and has regained his confidence/swagger that we saw on the court the first 3 or so games before he found himself competing against players stronger and more intense they he was used to in high school.

My interpretation of Peterson's playing time last year is a little different. In the first 19 games, he averaged 23 minutes/game. In the next 9 games, he averaged 11.9 minutes/game. Then over the final 5 games of the season, he averaged 22.2 minutes/game.

His 3-pt shooting (and perhaps confidence), can also be broken down into 4 different groups. In the first 6 games, he made 11 of 24 3-pt attempts. In the next 12 games he was still shooting a lot but was ice cold, making only 6 of 40 3-pt attempts. This seemed to result in a loss of confidence (and playing time), as over the next 8 games he was made 1 of 7 3-pt attempts. Things seemed to improve for the last 6 games of the season, when his playing time also increased, as he was 7 of 13 on 3-pt attempts. So not shooting as aggressively, but making more of his attempts.

There may have been other things going on, but as I followed along last season, his 3-pt shooting and minutes played stood out to me.
10-23-2019 12:19 PM
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elw4796 Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
Does anybody know if the staff applied for a waiver for Ondigo? The NCAA is basically granting every single waiver that has been sent (something like 4 have been rejected), so if Rice did so there might be a chance that he could actually play for us this year. I don't know what grounds he would have, but that hasn't been an obstacle for the NCAA yet.
10-23-2019 12:45 PM
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Kayjay Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
(10-23-2019 12:19 PM)mrbig Wrote:  
(10-23-2019 10:30 AM)Kayjay Wrote:  I mentioned earlier that the development of the freshmen guards taking PT from Ako would be a strong indicator on the continued development of the team. I believe the second key indicator may be whether Drew Peterson establishes (re-establishes?) himself as a key contributor to the team as a sophomore. He really seemed to struggle much of the season and eventually lost his starters minutes over the final 8 or so games. Hopefully he is stronger and has regained his confidence/swagger that we saw on the court the first 3 or so games before he found himself competing against players stronger and more intense they he was used to in high school.

My interpretation of Peterson's playing time last year is a little different. In the first 19 games, he averaged 23 minutes/game. In the next 9 games, he averaged 11.9 minutes/game. Then over the final 5 games of the season, he averaged 22.2 minutes/game.

His 3-pt shooting (and perhaps confidence), can also be broken down into 4 different groups. In the first 6 games, he made 11 of 24 3-pt attempts. In the next 12 games he was still shooting a lot but was ice cold, making only 6 of 40 3-pt attempts. This seemed to result in a loss of confidence (and playing time), as over the next 8 games he was made 1 of 7 3-pt attempts. Things seemed to improve for the last 6 games of the season, when his playing time also increased, as he was 7 of 13 on 3-pt attempts. So not shooting as aggressively, but making more of his attempts.

There may have been other things going on, but as I followed along last season, his 3-pt shooting and minutes played stood out to me.

Your interpretation is far better than my memory (way too many college hoops games over the years). You are right about the Playing time. It just seemed like when the Owls began playing teams with solid D-1 talent DP's game seemed to disappear. He began the season with an "attitude" on the court (a good thing) but it slowly dissolved over the season. It would be great to see the type of improvement in his game like we saw with Robert Martin last year.
10-23-2019 03:09 PM
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cr11owl Offline
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RE: Men's Hoops Predictions
Anyone go to the practice tonight? Sounds like 1st team tonight was Adams, Parrish, Murphy, Mullins, Moore, Crisler, Fiedler. Apparently defense was tight but the offense was a little slow. Moore knocked down some 3s and everyone looks like they had a good offseason in the gym. Crisler looked good on both ends supposedly so I’m guessing he starts at the 5.

Surprised initially that Martin wasn’t on the “1st team” but maybe Pera wants to play him as the 6th man like he did some last year. I’m not sure if Rob is more comfortable that way, or he likes the matchups but he definitely scored in bunches when he came off the bench first.
10-23-2019 07:45 PM
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