tanqtonic
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Midterm elections
Threading this off on its own to avoid intermixing with the Trump thread.
The thing I have seen in the last three weeks is a slide off the blue wave in the Senate. Judging this entirely off fivethirtyeight macro forecast.
Three weeks ago the forecast in the classic version of his analysis had the Democrats with a 39% chance of taking the Senate. Today it slid to a new low for the cycle of just over 21%.
There seem to be only two flips at all possible for the Democrats -- NV and AZ. NV is really a tossup here. Donnelly in IN seems to be a blue hold, and Tester in MT even more so.
For the red team TN is increasingly looking like a red hold as Pederson has tanked about 5 pts in the last two weeks; even after he came out and said he would have voted for Kavanaugh.
FL is becoming a battleground and potential flip for red -- Nelson just cant seem to beat back the challenger and seal the deal.
MO looks like another potential red flip --- it will be interesting to see if there is any blowback on McCaskill due to her down vote on Kavanaugh. Race is neck and neck now, and any negative ther for her could be all it takes.
ND is toast for the blue team. That is a flip for the red team there.
Looks like it could be another 51-49 red advantage, or a 50-50 tie goes to red count.
As for the House, it looks like the only question will be how large the majority will be for team blue.
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10-08-2018 01:10 PM |
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Fort Bend Owl
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RE: Midterm elections
Bredesen, not Pederson, in Tennessee. I'll assume that was an auto correct issue.
You don't think Beto has a chance in Texas I gather.
If the Democrats regain control of the House, and the Senate ends up 50-50, it will be interesting to see if Trump (finally) starts to compromise some on his policies.
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10-08-2018 01:41 PM |
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tanqtonic
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RE: Midterm elections
(10-08-2018 01:41 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: Bredesen, not Pederson, in Tennessee. I'll assume that was an auto correct issue.
You don't think Beto has a chance in Texas I gather.
If the Democrats regain control of the House, and the Senate ends up 50-50, it will be interesting to see if Trump (finally) starts to compromise some on his policies.
Or just sheer ignorance here.... sometimes I type faster than I think and wing it. Thanks for the correction.
I dont think Robert has a decent chance to win. I think that Robert's only chance is to convince many that he is a moderate -- I dont see that.
And, look, I admire Robert's stance on many of his principles -- he has every right to believe in and vote against fracking; and every right to believe in and vote for a $10/bbl tax additional tax on oil; and every right to want and believe in a ban on AR-15s.
The problem Robert has now is the delta between his actual record, and his want-to-be persona. I think that Robert's voting record is not a good platform to run on in Texas. I think the polls have shown that consistently.
I think he will do much better than other statewide Democrats. He may even break 47-48 per cent. I just dont see a win here for him based on his platform and that the numbers just are not breaking his way.
But then again, I also predicted a 48-52 loss for Kavanaugh.....
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10-08-2018 01:52 PM |
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OptimisticOwl
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RE: Midterm elections
(10-08-2018 01:52 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: he has every right to believe in and vote against fracking; and every right to believe in and vote for a $10/bbl tax additional tax on oil; and every right to want and believe in a ban on AR-15s.
As somebody with personal knowledge of fracking, I think he is a fracking idiot.
What is the point of the additional tax on oil?
Why is he against AR-15s?
Sounds to me like he just goes when the leftist mob pushes him.
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10-08-2018 01:56 PM |
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westsidewolf1989
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RE: Midterm elections
(10-08-2018 01:56 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: (10-08-2018 01:52 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: he has every right to believe in and vote against fracking; and every right to believe in and vote for a $10/bbl tax additional tax on oil; and every right to want and believe in a ban on AR-15s.
As somebody with personal knowledge of fracking, I think he is a fracking idiot.
What is the point of the additional tax on oil?
Why is he against AR-15s?
Sounds to me like he just goes when the leftist mob pushes him.
The federal tax (beyond the severance taxes that some states, including Texas, impose on oil production) was theoretically going to cover mass transit infrastructure / more "clean" transportation. It was suggested by Obama and Beto voted against a non-binding measure in the House that opposed this tax. Obviously it didn't end up gaining much traction.
To be fair, I think most politicians these days go wherever the leftist / rightist mob pushes them. There are certainly counterexamples, but those people are definitely the minority.
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10-08-2018 02:19 PM |
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Owl 69/70/75
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RE: Midterm elections
(10-08-2018 01:52 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: And, look, I admire Robert's stance on many of his principles -- he has every right to believe in and vote against fracking; and every right to believe in and vote for a $10/bbl tax additional tax on oil; and every right to want and believe in a ban on AR-15s.
Query: Why aren't Cruz's adverts focusing on these three things? Those would all seem to be deal-killers for a significant majority of Texans.
If I see the ad about not standing for the anthem one more time, I'm going to throw up.
It's almost like Ted is trying to prove that he can run a worse campaign than Claytie Williams.
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2018 02:44 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
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10-08-2018 02:44 PM |
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Fort Bend Owl
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RE: Midterm elections
I'm also trying to figure out why every one of Cruz's ads (or the Super PACs who funded them) insist on pronouncing Beto's name as Bay-to instead of Bet-o. For the life of me, there has to be a reason for that but it seems so silly it's not even worth finding out why.
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10-08-2018 03:10 PM |
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tanqtonic
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RE: Midterm elections
(10-08-2018 02:44 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: (10-08-2018 01:52 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: And, look, I admire Robert's stance on many of his principles -- he has every right to believe in and vote against fracking; and every right to believe in and vote for a $10/bbl tax additional tax on oil; and every right to want and believe in a ban on AR-15s.
Query: Why aren't Cruz's adverts focusing on these three things? Those would all seem to be deal-killers for a significant majority of Texans.
If I see the ad about not standing for the anthem one more time, I'm going to throw up.
It's almost like Ted is trying to prove that he can run a worse campaign than Claytie Williams.
Actually Cruz's current ads do point to the first two points.
I think Cruz has been holding back ads --- specifically to keep the powder dry for the last three or four weeks (i.e. now). He probably holds a 4-5 point lead w/o any serious amount of ads to this point. Might as well just do a tidal surge at the end with that.
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10-08-2018 04:12 PM |
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Owl 69/70/75
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RE: Midterm elections
(10-08-2018 04:12 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: (10-08-2018 02:44 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: (10-08-2018 01:52 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: And, look, I admire Robert's stance on many of his principles -- he has every right to believe in and vote against fracking; and every right to believe in and vote for a $10/bbl tax additional tax on oil; and every right to want and believe in a ban on AR-15s.
Query: Why aren't Cruz's adverts focusing on these three things? Those would all seem to be deal-killers for a significant majority of Texans.
If I see the ad about not standing for the anthem one more time, I'm going to throw up.
It's almost like Ted is trying to prove that he can run a worse campaign than Claytie Williams.
Actually Cruz's current ads do point to the first two points.
I think Cruz has been holding back ads --- specifically to keep the powder dry for the last three or four weeks (i.e. now). He probably holds a 4-5 point lead w/o any serious amount of ads to this point. Might as well just do a tidal surge at the end with that.
Could be. I'm just ready for him to strike.
I really don't want to vote for Ted because I don't really like him. But if it looks close, I will, because I think it imperative to defeat the likes of O'Rourke. I just want him to pull far enough ahead that he doesn't need me.
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10-08-2018 04:57 PM |
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Fort Bend Owl
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RE: Midterm elections
(10-08-2018 04:12 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: (10-08-2018 02:44 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: (10-08-2018 01:52 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: And, look, I admire Robert's stance on many of his principles -- he has every right to believe in and vote against fracking; and every right to believe in and vote for a $10/bbl tax additional tax on oil; and every right to want and believe in a ban on AR-15s.
Query: Why aren't Cruz's adverts focusing on these three things? Those would all seem to be deal-killers for a significant majority of Texans.
If I see the ad about not standing for the anthem one more time, I'm going to throw up.
It's almost like Ted is trying to prove that he can run a worse campaign than Claytie Williams.
Actually Cruz's current ads do point to the first two points.
I think Cruz has been holding back ads --- specifically to keep the powder dry for the last three or four weeks (i.e. now). He probably holds a 4-5 point lead w/o any serious amount of ads to this point. Might as well just do a tidal surge at the end with that.
I've seen way, way more Cruz TV ads than O'Rourke. The Super PACs have been spending tons of money in Texas. I bet you they didn't think that would be necessary a year ago.
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10-08-2018 05:39 PM |
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tanqtonic
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RE: Midterm elections
Interesting. In Austin the ratio (until last week) was about 50:1 Robert to Edward ads. I hadnt seen an Edward ad until last week (interestingly during the Ellen show, what a piss-away of money with that geographic/viewing combo; seriously -- how much traction do you think a Cruz ad will get with an Ellen audience in Austin?)
This last week I have seen about a 5:4 ratio (O'Rourke/Cruz) ads.
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10-08-2018 05:53 PM |
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Fort Bend Owl
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RE: Midterm elections
In Houston it's been about 2:1 Cruz over O'Rourke? Now admittedly I don't watch much mainstream TV (some sports here and there) but in the brief bits I've seen, that's how I would classify it. I would think the Republican party would buy more ad buys in Houston than in Austin.
I even saw my first Greg Abbott tv spot which surprised me. I don't think I've seen a single TV spot for the Lt. Gov. race.
Locally, I'm seeing way more Pete Olson yard signs than Cruz ones. Someone told me the other day though that Olson's health isn't the best and the rumor is that he will only try to run for this final 2-year term in the House.
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10-08-2018 06:15 PM |
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tanqtonic
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RE: Midterm elections
Houston (and in particular its suburbs) I think would be a far better fishing ground for Cruz campaign ad dollars than Austin. Just a wild guess. Much better ROI.....
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2018 07:33 PM by tanqtonic.)
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10-08-2018 07:32 PM |
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WoodlandsOwl
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RE: Midterm elections
After the past week of chaos, demonstrations, futile pounding upon the Doors of the US Supreme Court, violent threats made to Politicians along with Pelosi's promises of immediate Impeachment Proceedings of Trump and Kavanaugh, the Democrats must realize that these manufactured and bogus complaints against POTUS have unified the "Anti-Trump Wing" (Never Trumpers), Tea Party and "Establishment GOP" Candidates in the Congressional elections.
Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Florida will be GOP Senate Pick-ups.
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10-08-2018 09:20 PM |
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westsidewolf1989
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RE: Midterm elections
(10-08-2018 06:15 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: In Houston it's been about 2:1 Cruz over O'Rourke? Now admittedly I don't watch much mainstream TV (some sports here and there) but in the brief bits I've seen, that's how I would classify it. I would think the Republican party would buy more ad buys in Houston than in Austin.
I even saw my first Greg Abbott tv spot which surprised me. I don't think I've seen a single TV spot for the Lt. Gov. race.
Locally, I'm seeing way more Pete Olson yard signs than Cruz ones. Someone told me the other day though that Olson's health isn't the best and the rumor is that he will only try to run for this final 2-year term in the House.
I've seen the same commercial for Dan Patrick probably five times.
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10-09-2018 10:02 AM |
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BSWBRice
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RE: Midterm elections
Interesting, in Austin I've seen way more Cruz ads than Beto, but my TV watching is mostly just football. Still don't think Beto has any chance of winning.
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10-09-2018 10:57 AM |
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Baconator
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RE: Midterm elections
Ted Cruz campaign specifically addressed the sign issue a few months back. Apparently the campaign manager had research showing that yard signs are a relatively ineffective way to spend money.
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10-09-2018 11:34 AM |
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