(10-08-2018 09:20 PM)WoodlandsOwl Wrote: After the past week of chaos, demonstrations, futile pounding upon the Doors of the US Supreme Court, violent threats made to Politicians along with Pelosi's promises of immediate Impeachment Proceedings of Trump and Kavanaugh, the Democrats must realize that these manufactured and bogus complaints against POTUS have unified the "Anti-Trump Wing" (Never Trumpers), Tea Party and "Establishment GOP" Candidates in the Congressional elections.
Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Florida will be GOP Senate Pick-ups.
You really think Tester will lose MT? I dont see that at all. Putting that one in the snowball's chance right now.
I think Donnelly is safe-ish in IN.
Heidi in ND is toast. MO and FL are going to the be catfights. Last three weeks McKaskill's opponent has made this a serious race. I think MO is more of a pickup that FL.
So, wall of disclaimers to lead this off (note: all-caps is for emphasis and not intended to be yelling):
I feel about political ads roughly the way OwlNumbers feels about pharma ads (per his post in the Padgett thread yesterday). I think they have an overall harmful effect on the political sphere, in part by helping to push people into their specific corner such that (MASSIVE STEREOTYPING HERE) a certain breed of lefty thinks everyone right of Elizabeth Warren is literally Mussolini and (MORE MASSIVE STEREOTYPING HERE) a certain breed of righty thinks everyone left of Rick Perry is literally Karl Marx. I think we'd generally be better off with less campaign direct advertising, and less political advertising in general, and more time spent on actual discussion of policy issues (which the 24-hour news cycle doesn't help with either but that's its own story). In general, political ads are bad and they should feel bad.
ALL THAT SAID:
One of the anti-Cruz PACs figured out how to make a political ad that involves someone who talks and sounds like an actual human being and not a walking scarecrow with a pullstring full of talking points. It's an incredibly well-constructed, real-feeling ad. Turns out all you have to do to make a political ad sound real is...hire Richard Linklater to create it.
I rather doubt it'll have much effect (and I'd prefer it if it didn't, truth be told, given my feelings on political ads in general), but it's a surprisingly well-constructed ad.
(10-10-2018 08:09 AM)baker-13 Wrote: So, wall of disclaimers to lead this off (note: all-caps is for emphasis and not intended to be yelling):
I feel about political ads roughly the way OwlNumbers feels about pharma ads (per his post in the Padgett thread yesterday). I think they have an overall harmful effect on the political sphere, in part by helping to push people into their specific corner such that (MASSIVE STEREOTYPING HERE) a certain breed of lefty thinks everyone right of Elizabeth Warren is literally Mussolini and (MORE MASSIVE STEREOTYPING HERE) a certain breed of righty thinks everyone left of Rick Perry is literally Karl Marx. I think we'd generally be better off with less campaign direct advertising, and less political advertising in general, and more time spent on actual discussion of policy issues (which the 24-hour news cycle doesn't help with either but that's its own story). In general, political ads are bad and they should feel bad.
ALL THAT SAID:
One of the anti-Cruz PACs figured out how to make a political ad that involves someone who talks and sounds like an actual human being and not a walking scarecrow with a pullstring full of talking points. It's an incredibly well-constructed, real-feeling ad. Turns out all you have to do to make a political ad sound real is...hire Richard Linklater to create it.
I rather doubt it'll have much effect (and I'd prefer it if it didn't, truth be told, given my feelings on political ads in general), but it's a surprisingly well-constructed ad.
My problem with adverts like that are that they are simply personal attacks. No information on issue positions, and all I really care about are issue positions. I'm hiring somebody to cast a votes me. I want somebody who is going to vote the way I want him to. Why do I care about anything in this advert?
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2018 08:37 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
(10-10-2018 08:34 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: My problem with adverts like that are that they are simply personal attacks. No information on issue positions, and all I really care about are issue positions. I'm hiring somebody to cast a votes me. I want somebody who is going to vote the way I want him to. Why do I care about anything in this advert?
(Emphasis mine.)
I concur.
I was simply noting that this ad had a realistic, believable voice, unlike...well, pretty much any other political ad I can recall.
If we have to have political advertising (and it doesn't seem to be going away anytime soon), I'd prefer that it discuss policy choices and placements without going negative, and I'd prefer that it sound like a real person as opposed to some media consultant's focus-grouped-to-within-an-inch-of-its-whatever-passes-for-"life" idea of what a real person sounds like.
While I can't answer for you, my answer to your question is because this ad at least achieves a realistic voice, and I thought that that was worth acknowledging (though I hope it's put to better use in the future).
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2018 08:44 AM by baker-'13.)
(10-10-2018 08:34 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: My problem with adverts like that are that they are simply personal attacks. No information on issue positions, and all I really care about are issue positions. I'm hiring somebody to cast a votes me. I want somebody who is going to vote the way I want him to. Why do I care about anything in this advert?
I guess it's at least better than ads that masquerade as policy position ads, but are really lying about policy positions or grossly distorting them. Those are my absolute least favorite, and far too common.
This ad has changed me from a Cruz voter to an O'Rourke voter. At least O'Rourke will have the courage to take an insulter out behind the woodshed and whip his ass. That's how we real Texans want things to be done in Congress.
(10-10-2018 10:03 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: This ad has changed me from a Cruz voter to an O'Rourke voter. At least O'Rourke will have the courage to take an insulter out behind the woodshed and whip his ass. That's how we real Texans want things to be done in Congress.
More an SNL skit than the typical advert. Wonder if the PAC tested it with a focus group before releasing.
(10-08-2018 01:10 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: Three weeks ago the forecast in the classic version of his analysis had the Democrats with a 39% chance of taking the Senate. Today it slid to a new low for the cycle of just over 21%.
Current forecast for Blue Senate control down to 19%. Roughly even odds of Republicans picking up at least one seat.
That Linklater ad features actor Sonny Carl Davis, and pretty much recreates the scene from a 2011 political movie by Linklater named Bernie (which has nothing to do with Bernie Sanders by the way). If you liked the ad (or even if you didn't like the ad), you might enjoy this scene from the movie Bernie where the actor explain the different parts of Texas.
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2018 06:21 PM by Fort Bend Owl.)
(10-10-2018 10:03 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: This ad has changed me from a Cruz voter to an O'Rourke voter. At least O'Rourke will have the courage to take an insulter out behind the woodshed and whip his ass. That's how we real Texans want things to be done in Congress.
More an SNL skit than the typical advert. Wonder if the PAC tested it with a focus group before releasing.
The Come and Take It cap is a nice touch.
The fact that stuff like that might actually influence voters is really scary to contemplate.
(10-10-2018 10:03 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: This ad has changed me from a Cruz voter to an O'Rourke voter. At least O'Rourke will have the courage to take an insulter out behind the woodshed and whip his ass. That's how we real Texans want things to be done in Congress.
More an SNL skit than the typical advert. Wonder if the PAC tested it with a focus group before releasing.
The Come and Take It cap is a nice touch.
The fact that stuff like that might actually influence voters is really scary to contemplate.
It's been part of politics for as long as there have been elections.
(10-10-2018 10:03 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: This ad has changed me from a Cruz voter to an O'Rourke voter. At least O'Rourke will have the courage to take an insulter out behind the woodshed and whip his ass. That's how we real Texans want things to be done in Congress.
More an SNL skit than the typical advert. Wonder if the PAC tested it with a focus group before releasing.
The Come and Take It cap is a nice touch.
The fact that stuff like that might actually influence voters is really scary to contemplate.
Everyone knows that people are perfectly rational economic actors in the marketplace, but complete idiots when it comes to voting, amirite?
(10-10-2018 06:21 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: That Linklater ad features actor Sonny Carl Davis, and pretty much recreates the scene from a 2011 political movie by Linklater named Bernie (which has nothing to do with Bernie Sanders by the way). If you liked the ad (or even if you didn't like the ad), you might enjoy this scene from the movie Bernie where the actor explain the different parts of Texas.
Really enjoyable movie. I remembered that scene in particular because of the spot on take about the 5 states of Texas and the panhandle.
Cruz now ahead by 9 percentage points in latest Quinnipiac poll. There is going to have to be a seismic shift in turnout demographics for O'Rourke to even have a shot at winning - I saw a tweet where it said, in the 2014 midterms, only 7% of voters in Texas were under the age of 35. That's hilarious and sad at the same time.
The only O'Rourke ad I see on TV is one where he says 'Dont believe the negative ads you hear. We are Texans, yada yada yada'. Same one has been hitting the Austin market for about three weeks.
Doesnt mention one issue at all..... Really heavily uninspiring.
I saw a tweet that compared O'Rourke's fundraising in the last quarter ($38 million) to that of Obama's in the quarter before the 2008 Iowa/New Hampshire primaries ($23 million).
Beto needs to spend some of that money on something besides TV/new media buys. A massive Get Out The Vote rally/concert for young people and the minorities he desperately needs to vote next month. Something with all the A list celebrities. Otherwise, he has no chance.
(10-13-2018 06:16 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: I saw a tweet that compared O'Rourke's fundraising in the last quarter ($38 million) to that of Obama's in the quarter before the 2008 Iowa/New Hampshire primaries ($23 million).
Beto needs to spend some of that money on something besides TV/new media buys. A massive Get Out The Vote rally/concert for young people and the minorities he desperately needs to vote next month. Something with all the A list celebrities. Otherwise, he has no chance.
In other words, he needs to spend money on things that in no way emphasize his message. Why is that?
And you wonder why some of us label O'Rourke as fluff and not really in step with Texas?
Well you just said three posts ago his ads don't mention a message at all. So if he's going to continue doing that, he may as well entertain us with some decent music, don't you think?
