Would a basketball/football split occurred in the Big East earlier, possibly in 1994? Would the Big East have raided the ACC? Would PSU have gotten the death penalty over the Sandusky scandal? Note that some people speculate PSU avoided the death penalty because it would have brought the BIG below the # of teams needed for a championship game. (The penalties were announced before the BIG expanded to 14, and also before the rule was passed saying you could have a title game with 10 teams.)

Here's my speculation

Big East football forms in the late 1980s or early 1990s with PSU, Miami, Va Tech, WVU, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Rutgers and Temple. There are basically 2 ways that PSU could have gotten into the Big East- either Temple accepted the Big East invite they originally had in the late 1970s over Villanova, or Temple rejects that invite but Villanova doesn't drop football in 1981. In order to keep things more consistent with real life I will assume that Temple joins the Big East in the 1970s, and later becomes a charter member of Big East football. (Although the only real difference between the latter and former scenario is that the latter results in Nova being the big fiasco in Big East football rather than Temple.)

In 1994, the football and basketball teams split. This almost happened in real life, and I think Paterno leading the football schools causes this to actually happen. I'm not even going to guess what the football conference now calls itself. As a random guess I'll say they call themselves the Eastern US Conference. ND joins the Eastern US Conference as a football independent.

Temple never gets kicked out in the early 2000s. (Assuming they're in the conference rather than Villanova.) Since they're a full sports member they're much harder to get rid of.

In the early to mid 2000s, neither the US nor Eastern US Conference raid each other.

In 2009-2010, the Big 10 never tries to expand. Since they have 10 teams rather than 11, they'd have to get 2 teams rather than 1 to get a championship game. Plus they don't have an awkward 11 team conference setup that they might have wanted to get rid of. And to cap it off, since the ACC doesn't have a championship game, it's probably viewed as less essential for the Big 10 to get one.

Also the Big 12 doesn't lose any schools to the SEC or PAC. Those losses don't occur without the Big 10 opening the door to the Big 12 by inviting Nebraska. Since Colorado doesn't join the PAC, Utah never gets an invite to come with them.

Boise State accepts an invite to the MWC. With BSU, BYU, Utah and TCU in the conference, the MWC is stronger than ever. Also, Boise is the only school that leaves the WAC, and the WAC never ends up completely dissolving or even coming close to doing so. Since in real life the WAC dissolution was basically the unintended result of a massive chain reaction caused by teams leaving the Big 12 and Big East.

Here's the really fun part. In July 2012, PSU gets a 2 year death penalty. There's no conference championship game that will have to be cancelled from this sanction, like there was in real life.

Since July is late to cancel a football season, I think it would have been the 2013 and 2014 seasons that would have been cancelled, rather than 2012 and 2013.

When PSU returns in 2015, they are terrible. By about 2020 or 2021, it's become clear that PSU will never recover. So Miami, Va Tech, Pitt, Syracuse and BC all accept invites to the ACC. ND joins with something similiar to the 5 game deal they currently have.

The last season of the Eastern US Conference is around 2021 or 2022. After this season, the above mentioned teams all join the ACC. PSU, WVU, Rutgers and Temple all join either the MAC or C-USA.

Penn State would still have gotten, and accepted, a B1G invite in 1991.

(09-23-2018 07:41 AM)Poster Wrote:  Would a basketball/football split occurred in the Big East earlier, possibly in 1994? Would the Big East have raided the ACC? Would PSU have gotten the death penalty over the Sandusky scandal? Note that some people speculate PSU avoided the death penalty because it would have brought the BIG below the # of teams needed for a championship game. (The penalties were announced before the BIG expanded to 14, and also before the rule was passed saying you could have a title game with 10 teams.)

I would suspect that the Big Ten still adds the Nittany Lions in 1991, possibly a year or two later given that the Big East would have wanted some notice.

The bigger question is what would the remaining independents have done in 1982. The remaining independents would have been Florida State, Southewestern Louisiana, East Carolina, Southern Miss, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Army, South Carolina, William & Mary, North Texas State, Memphis, and Richmond. I think it’s quite possible Florida State, Georgia Tech, and/or South Carolina joins the Big East - it wouldn’t have stopped any of them for leaving for the ACC or SEC, but the Big East starting football 8-9 years sooner certainly makes it harder for the remaining independent programs.

If the Big East wanted to replace Penn State and possibly others for the 1992 season, I think Louisville and/or Cincinnati would have to get the call. If that’s the case, Conference USA likely doesn’t sponsor football for 1996 or 1997 (Army joined for football in 1998, and UAB followed in 1999). TCU May have elected to stay in the WAC with Louisville and/or Cincinnati in the Big East, but TCU ultimately joins the Big 12.

(09-23-2018 09:25 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  Penn State would still have gotten, and accepted, a B1G invite in 1991.

Agree 100%.

I'd speculate the BEFC may have begun, or at least been announced, 1 or 2 years earlier if PSU had been in the fold. I think the Big East would have been especially likely to announce a football league earlier if PSU were flirting with the Big 10. Even if PSU might have left a football-less Big East for the Big Ten, I don't think they would have left a Big East that actually included football.

In real life, PSU got invited to the Big 10 two months earlier than the Big East announced it was forming a football conference. PSU was invited to the Big 10 in December 1990 and the Big East announced it was playing football in February 1991. All that is really required for the Big East to keep PSU is that it announces a football conference 2 months earlier than they did in real life.

Also keep in mind that in real life, PSU got the exact minimum number of votes it needed to get into the Big 10. Even if PSU applied to the Big 10 in this parallel universe, they'd have gotten rejected if just one Big Ten president was concerned about the optics of raiding another conference, and possibly even having to pay part of PSU's exit fees.

end results would still be for the most part what we have today. time line would have been delayed. would still have FB only member in BE. Maybe PSU could have convinced the others to bring Va Tech in earlier as full member? UConn might have decided to upgrade sooner or never given the option. IMO PSU had its eyes on the B10 the whole time and still would hhave bolted at first opportunity. Had Paterno been able to convince the others to form an all sport conference without the BE BB schools, there is a slight chance they would have been satisfied and not go tom the B10 but I doubt it. Paterno may even have been able at that point to bring along a"friend"(Rutgers?) to get the b10 up to 12

Considering that Paterno tried to form an Eastern football conference even before applying to the Big East, why do people believe he would have wanted to go to the Big 10 so much? Even in the 2010s, Paterno was pressuring the Big 10 to add a Northeastern team like Pitt, Syracuse or Rutgers and was upset when they instead added Nebraska. And if you go on PSU fan websites, to this very day there is a vocal minority of PSU fans who want to leave the Big 10 for the ACC in order to be with the Eastern teams they used to play.

If anything I believe that Paterno would have wanted to stay in the Big East, while the academics at PSU might have wanted to join the Big 10. After the Sandusky scandal, it's pretty obvious that Paterno's will dominated over anybody else's will at PSU.

(09-23-2018 08:39 AM)Poster Wrote:  Here's the really fun part. In July 2012, PSU gets a 2 year death penalty. There's no conference championship game that will have to be cancelled from this sanction, like there was in real life.

No D1 football team will get the death penalty again after how bad it messed up SMU. Penn State would have the same punishment (postseason ban, loss of scholarships and vacated wins) regardless of what conference they were in.

(09-23-2018 11:31 AM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(09-23-2018 08:39 AM)Poster Wrote:  Here's the really fun part. In July 2012, PSU gets a 2 year death penalty. There's no conference championship game that will have to be cancelled from this sanction, like there was in real life.

No D1 football team will get the death penalty again after how bad it messed up SMU. Penn State would have the same punishment (postseason ban, loss of scholarships and vacated wins) regardless of what conference they were in.

I suspect you're right about the death penalty, but the real test case is/will be Louisville. As we saw the PSU and North Carolina, the NCAA is taking a very strict definition of it's purview and it's not entirely clear that things like failure to report suspected sexual abuse or academic fraud are things the NCAA exists to enforce.

With Louisville however, while having just been placed on probation for recruiting violations and actively appealing sanctions severe enough to have a banner stripped one of their coaches was caught on tape by law enforcement negotiating a direct cash payment for a recruit's commitment. That's as squarely in the NCAA's wheelhouse as something can be and they have the school dead to rights. We'll see how it goes, but I agree they might as well drop the charade and just remove the death penalty from the books because they aren't going to apply it.

(09-23-2018 09:25 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  Penn State would still have gotten, and accepted, a B1G invite in 1991.

That’s what other Penn State alumni say when I ask them that question. They were going to the Big Ten regardless if they were in the Big East or not.

(09-23-2018 01:25 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-23-2018 11:31 AM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(09-23-2018 08:39 AM)Poster Wrote:  Here's the really fun part. In July 2012, PSU gets a 2 year death penalty. There's no conference championship game that will have to be cancelled from this sanction, like there was in real life.

No D1 football team will get the death penalty again after how bad it messed up SMU. Penn State would have the same punishment (postseason ban, loss of scholarships and vacated wins) regardless of what conference they were in.

I suspect you're right about the death penalty, but the real test case is/will be Louisville. As we saw the PSU and North Carolina, the NCAA is taking a very strict definition of it's purview and it's not entirely clear that things like failure to report suspected sexual abuse or academic fraud are things the NCAA exists to enforce.

With Louisville however, while having just been placed on probation for recruiting violations and actively appealing sanctions severe enough to have a banner stripped one of their coaches was caught on tape by law enforcement negotiating a direct cash payment for a recruit's commitment. That's as squarely in the NCAA's wheelhouse as something can be and they have the school dead to rights. We'll see how it goes, but I agree they might as well drop the charade and just remove the death penalty from the books because they aren't going to apply it.

The true test will be Baylor. If they don’t get the DP, no school will ever get it.

(09-23-2018 01:44 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The true test will be Baylor. If they don’t get the DP, no school will ever get it.

I honestly don't know about that. There's wiggle room for the NCAA to take the position that the Baylor situation is more of a law enforcement matter (unless I misunderstand the situation). People forget that the NCAA isn't The Police For Colleges, and just because something a school (or athletic department) has done may be particularly severe it doesn't mean it's 100% applicable to NCAA regulations - to offer a rather extreme example, some member of a coaching staff being discovered to be a serial killer would be awful, but I don't really think the NCAA has any involvement there. With Louisville, cash payments for commitments (which I'm actually not bothered by at all on a moral level) is directly applicable to the main mission of the NCAA, Louisville had just been placed on probation and given sanctions for recruiting violations and continued violating the rules, and there's absolutely no amount of he-said-she-said they can hide behind because the feds have it on camera with sound and date-stamp and everything. The NCAA doesn't have anything to hide behind there.

We've discussed Penn St and the Big East/Eastern All Sports League on here before.

I'm inclined to say that if Penn St gets an invite then that conference would still be playing and Penn St could very well still be in it, especially if the Hurricanes and Nittany Lions come to enjoy being top dogs in their own league.

If Penn St is in a viable Eastern-based football conference in the early 90s and they are the dominant program I'm not sure the Big Ten has the same appeal.

In 2004-2005 the ACC's ability to raid the Big East is highly questionable. VT would be the only school who would really see moving as advantageous.

In 2010-2012 I think it all depends on how convincing the Big Ten can be with their argument. If they can offer Penn St and some choice companions piles and piles of cash then maybe the break occurs. The ACC Then gets the pick of what's left.

If instead it's Penn St that remains steadfast, then the alternative scenario is that the Big Ten goes after a handful of old Big 8 programs, the SEC claims the best Texas schools, and the SEC and Big East potential pilfer an ACC that still has just 9 members.

(09-23-2018 02:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We've discussed Penn St and the Big East/Eastern All Sports League on here before.

I'm inclined to say that if Penn St gets an invite then that conference would still be playing and Penn St could very well still be in it, especially if the Hurricanes and Nittany Lions come to enjoy being top dogs in their own league.

If Penn St is in a viable Eastern-based football conference in the early 90s and they are the dominant program I'm not sure the Big Ten has the same appeal.

In 2004-2005 the ACC's ability to raid the Big East is highly questionable. VT would be the only school who would really see moving as advantageous.

In 2010-2012 I think it all depends on how convincing the Big Ten can be with their argument. If they can offer Penn St and some choice companions piles and piles of cash then maybe the break occurs. The ACC Then gets the pick of what's left.

If instead it's Penn St that remains steadfast, then the alternative scenario is that the Big Ten goes after a handful of old Big 8 programs, the SEC claims the best Texas schools, and the SEC and Big East potential pilfer an ACC that still has just 9 members.

I think the key would have been Florida State - had Florida State joined the Big East instead of the ACC, the pendulum will have swung the other way.

The Big Ten would have taken Nebraska and Missouri.

Assuming no one in the ACC is available, I could see the SEC taking Texas A&M and TCU. If the ACC is in play, I think North Carolina and Virginia are their first picks.

Big East
North - Boston College, UConn, Rutgers, Syracuse, Penn State, Pittsburgh
South - Miami (FL), Florida State, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, ???, ???
Non-football - Villanova, Georgetown, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Marquette, DePaul, Providence

If the Big East went to 12 in football with North Carolina and Duke, it’s possible the entire 20-Team behemoth stays together. If UNC isn’t available I could see Clemson and Maryland here as well.

What’s left of the Big 12 likely takes in SMU if they lose TCU.

The ACC would depend on who was left, but I think it shakes out like this:

Louisville (replaced Miami)
Cincinnati (replaced Florida State)
South Florida (replaced Boston College)
Central Florida (replaced Virginia Tech)
Georgia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Duke
Wake Forest
Virginia
Maryland

I think the bench for the ACC would run Temple, Memphis (if not in the Big 12), East Carolina (only if UNC leaves), and UMass. It’s quite possible the Big 12 could have added Louisville, Cincinnati, and Clemson or Georgia Tech

(09-23-2018 04:08 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(09-23-2018 02:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We've discussed Penn St and the Big East/Eastern All Sports League on here before.

I'm inclined to say that if Penn St gets an invite then that conference would still be playing and Penn St could very well still be in it, especially if the Hurricanes and Nittany Lions come to enjoy being top dogs in their own league.

If Penn St is in a viable Eastern-based football conference in the early 90s and they are the dominant program I'm not sure the Big Ten has the same appeal.

In 2004-2005 the ACC's ability to raid the Big East is highly questionable. VT would be the only school who would really see moving as advantageous.

In 2010-2012 I think it all depends on how convincing the Big Ten can be with their argument. If they can offer Penn St and some choice companions piles and piles of cash then maybe the break occurs. The ACC Then gets the pick of what's left.

If instead it's Penn St that remains steadfast, then the alternative scenario is that the Big Ten goes after a handful of old Big 8 programs, the SEC claims the best Texas schools, and the SEC and Big East potential pilfer an ACC that still has just 9 members.

I think the key would have been Florida State - had Florida State joined the Big East instead of the ACC, the pendulum will have swung the other way.

The Big Ten would have taken Nebraska and Missouri.

Assuming no one in the ACC is available, I could see the SEC taking Texas A&M and TCU. If the ACC is in play, I think North Carolina and Virginia are their first picks.

Big East
North - Boston College, UConn, Rutgers, Syracuse, Penn State, Pittsburgh
South - Miami (FL), Florida State, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, ???, ???
Non-football - Villanova, Georgetown, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Marquette, DePaul, Providence

If the Big East went to 12 in football with North Carolina and Duke, it’s possible the entire 20-Team behemoth stays together. If UNC isn’t available I could see Clemson and Maryland here as well.

What’s left of the Big 12 likely takes in SMU if they lose TCU.

The ACC would depend on who was left, but I think it shakes out like this:

Louisville (replaced Miami)
Cincinnati (replaced Florida State)
South Florida (replaced Boston College)
Central Florida (replaced Virginia Tech)
Georgia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Duke
Wake Forest
Virginia
Maryland

I think the bench for the ACC would run Temple, Memphis (if not in the Big 12), East Carolina (only if UNC leaves), and UMass. It’s quite possible the Big 12 could have added Louisville, Cincinnati, and Clemson or Georgia Tech

Marquette, DePaul, and Notre Dame probably never join the Big East because in this timeline there would be no need to balance the 16 team Big East with 8 FB/8 non-FB schools.

BC
UConn
Providence*
St John's*
Seton Hall*
Rutgers
Villanova*
Temple
Penn St
Pitt
Syracuse
Georgetown*
WVU
VT
Miami

Another scenario to explore is rather than Penn St joining the Big East, if Penn St could have formed the eastern all sports conference they wanted. This would have left out schools like Seton Hall, Providence, and St John's who wouldn't have football teams to contribute.

(09-23-2018 06:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Marquette, DePaul, and Notre Dame probably never join the Big East because in this timeline there would be no need to balance the 16 team Big East with 8 FB/8 non-FB schools.

BC
UConn
Providence*
St John's*
Seton Hall*
Rutgers
Villanova*
Temple
Penn St
Pitt
Syracuse
Georgetown*
WVU
VT
Miami

Another scenario to explore is rather than Penn St joining the Big East, if Penn St could have formed the eastern all sports conference they wanted. This would have left out schools like Seton Hall, Providence, and St John's who wouldn't have football teams to contribute.

In this timeline, I still believe a Catholic league was formed with the C5 and the Midwestern Catholic schools (Dayton, DePaul, Marquette, Notre Dame, Saint Louis and Xavier). There rumors about a potential Catholic league with the non-football members of the Big East if/when the league ever split (even in the mid-90's).

In retrospect, Dave Gavitt was able to convince the founding members of the Big East to work together in basketball. Each institution had separate goals and objectives with regards to its athletic programs. It's a miracle the league, in it's continuity, lasted until 2013.

(09-23-2018 09:36 AM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  

(09-23-2018 09:25 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  Penn State would still have gotten, and accepted, a B1G invite in 1991.

Agree 100%.

Doubtful it would have happened around the same time it did, if it did. More than anything, I bet the moment Penn State got the call for Big East, Pitt would have been on the phone with Big Ten folks non-stop.

And back then, getting PSU into the same place with Pitt, Cuse, and BC would have made fans very happy. You have Bryce Jordan pulling them out, and that guy is burned in effigy, maybe to this day. I’m one who believes the “no” vote made the Big Ten move pallatable. It wasn’t and still isn’t a move the football fans loved...but being told no helped the cause.

depends on how much foresight they had.

PSU, BC, Pitt, WV, SYC, Rutgers / MD, Va, Cin
Mia[Fla], FSU, GT, So Car, VT, Louv / NC, Clemson, NCST

in next 20 yrs, 8 NC & couple BB NC
TV ratings would made conf highest paid

had the FB teams formed an all sport league , where would UConn go? Would the FB schools have wanted them? a lot depends on when split might occur. Before there were FB only members or after. would the 5 BB schools (6 with UConn) looked to the Midwest or would they have tried to stay in the northeast/mid atlantic. stronger programs were in Midwest. if UConn went fb my guess is the BE would look like it does now except have st louis and Dayton instead of butler and Creighton. (at least until they went to 12) UConn sticks around UMass comes into play