(09-04-2018 02:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote: About one to two years out from the B12 contract expediting, the picture will be clearer
That's when the 8 other schools start pressuring UT and OU to sign a new GOR if they do then you know all is well and the B12 will continue. If they don't then there's two possibilities, neither good if you are not OU, KU or UT.
The first possibility is that they are holding out for more money and preferential treatment and will go to the eleventh hour before either giving up their demands or deciding that if they don't get those demands then they'll threaten to go somewhere else. Most of the other schools have no choice but to sign these demands. Some like KU may even decide they've had enough and put feelers out to the B1G or SEC.
The other possibility is one or both of them has already made plans to move elsewhere. OU may have already plotted with KU to move to the B1G or SEC ahead of time
It could even be a combination of those to hoodwink state politics.
OU and UT remain firm with their demands. KU announces it will no longer be blackmailed by football programs and goes to the B1G (knowing KSU can't follow) this then destabilizes the whole conference and gives OU the ability to say "we didn't plan this but now the conference is falling apart and we just happen to have this B1G/SEC invite as a life raft. It's too bad they won't take OSU too but we can't risk BOTH schools being left out!
That is one of several viable plans that the top 3 could utilize to get around some of the 2nd state school issues. Texas won't have that problem unless they want to. IMO Texas moves last, but only because it will benefit them to do so.
I'm not so sold that the Big 10 profits by adding Kansas. I think for the Big 10 Kansas is a back up 2nd choice if they can't get to Texas by taking Oklahoma. People forget that the PAC GOR expires at roughly the same time. Colorado / Oklahoma is a much stronger play for the Big 10 than Kansas / Oklahoma.
Kansas / Texas to the SEC and Colorado / Oklahoma to the Big 10 would be better adds geographically for both conferences. Colorado / Oklahoma is a better football and market get for the Big 10 than OU/KU. Why would Colorado move? Money is the only reason so it's certainly not a slam dunk, but the money would have to be tempting.
The PAC could respond with Texas Tech, T.C.U. and maybe Hawaii to get to 14.
I still believe in the end WVU heads East.
But let's say that the Big 10 makes the surprise first move and takes Oklahoma and Colorado. Oklahoma will first check with the SEC to see if we would take both Oklahoma schools. If Kansas senses the Big 10 is not as interested as they proclaim then Kansas might be the first to quietly agree to an SEC invitation. That gives OU the cover to leave OSU behind and they jump to the Big 10 with Colorado. The SEC now only needs one slot and ESPN will be working hard on Texas.
Or, since the Big 10 has always either quietly handled a move (Penn State) or deflected their big intentions by other talk (like the OU / KU talk where OU doesn't fit their academics and KU doesn't bring much to the table they don't already have like basketball and markets) they could be working on Colorado and Texas as their first two choices in which case OU and KU make sense for the SEC. But if they are after OU and KU to fit with Nebraska and cement that former addition with some old friends then Texas / Texas Tech, or even Texas / T.C.U. make sense for us.
But never rule out the possibility that the Big 10 has no intention of raiding the Big 12 this time and is actually saving slots for ACC targets in 10 years, or sooner if the ACCN doesn't pan out profitably enough to close the revenue gap.
By feigning interest in OU and KU they may be hoping to lure the SEC into the need to act defensively and use up two of our slots on Midwest properties with low population bases.
The fear in the Big 10 however would be that the SEC would somehow manage to lure both OU and UT. The total valuation of Big 10 product by the WSJ last year was over 5 billion. The value of the SEC was over 7 billion. Their valuation on UT and OU would total another 2.25 billion. The Big 10 can't afford to have the SEC acquire both Texas and Oklahoma because that would put us nearly at 10 billion in total value to their 5.
These are just a sampling of the various strategy angles that will be going into the next set of moves. I think the Big 10 is really after OU and UT. Why? They can't afford to not have a top Southern recruiting market. They can't afford for the SEC to land OU and UT and double up the Big 10 in earning potential. And those two schools are the last best content additions left on the table.
In my mind is the constant question of why be afraid to jump to 18 or even 20 when the stakes are so high. If it takes OSU and Tech to land both it will forever cement the SEC into first place in revenue, first place in content, first place in the highest % of viewers vs actual viewers, and give us essential control over the 2 of the 3 major growth centers in the U.S.. If it takes the addition of Kansas and any other school to cement it it is probably still worth the effort.
The acquisitions of Texas and Oklahoma are more valuable than any 4 top additions from the ACC.
So I think the battle is over OU and UT and that KU / TTU / or OSU could all stand to benefit depending on how the cards fall next time. The addition of North Carolina and Virginia are not equal in value to the addition of Texas to the Big 10.
It's game on and things will be in a lull until late 2022 and red hot by the summer of 2023.