(08-07-2018 01:04 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: (08-06-2018 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: I eliminate Troy and ULM. Both of these schools really are maxing out. They both have small undergraduate enrollments and have few main campus growth opportunities. If Troy gets any better, they'll lose their coach and AD, and will have to start over.
...both Troy and ULM are effectively using their assets for athletics and due to specific constraints related to their institutions really can only hope for a great year or two before someone steals their coach and the rebuilding starts anew.
Before you get mad at me, I think ULM and Troy will be two of the better programs this year. Being a sleeping giant means that you're really not doing something right.
They said we maxed out in 2007, went on to win three more titles. MTSU fans accused us of cheating at least once a week. This board said we'd never get a coach as good as Larry. We did, and the program is in way better shape despite winning five straight titles. They said it would be a revolving door, yet Neal Brown has been here four years.
When we hired Neal Brown, the money for his coaching pool was tops in the SBC. We'll probably do that again. We're not as maxed out as people think. If we keep winning, we can make Troy a destination school for coaches, a lot like Houston has been.
Its highly unlikely that Troy will ever be a peer of Houston. Quite frankly very few of our schools can really hope to do that.
You might keep Brown, but you're going to have trouble getting to 10,000 students. You might win 8-10 games a year, but you're not going to erase your deficit while doing it. I don't see any path for Troy to be in the AAC. They do have small schools, but those are small RICH schools with academic reputations that are quite frankly not part of most SBC institutions goals (our schools are largely geared towards providing a good education to the broad population - and thats a good thing).
Lets just look at the schools that play FBS that have fewer than 8000 undergrads
ULM
Troy
AFA - really not applicable to any of our schools
Naval Academy - ditto
West Point - ditto
Now lets look at the privates, which can just hit their students up with 5000 dollar athletic subsidies without scrutiny.
Rice - $5 Billion plus endowment and they cant be consistently good
Wake Forest - Billion dollar endowment and P5 membership. And they have trouble competing
Tulsa - Billion dollar endowment. They're in the AAC, but they don't seem to be thriving there.
All of the other FBS small schools have been playing at the highest level for a long, long, loooooong time too. And every other non-academy school playing is in a metro area north of 950,000 people.
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Now lets look at the schools that a smaller endowment than Troy.
App
A-State
Coastal
Georgia Southern
Troy
ULM
Louisiana Tech
MTSU - Offset by a huge enrollment
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
There are six programs that do reasonably well on this list, App, A State, Troy, La Tech, MTSU, and Northern Illinois. But none of them are on the AAC move up list.
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Now lets look at public schools with a greater subsidy percentage than the 72.45 percent Troy (meaning the amount spent on athletics not recouped by athletic revenue including direct gifts to the athletic department) loses on atheltics. This is a measure of how much a school can sustainably spend on its athletic program
UMass
Coastal Carolina
Georgia State
Ball State
A couple of schools have deficits rather close but not as high as Troy). But only 4 public teams playing FBS have one worse than Troys
Three of them are very new to FBS.
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Money isn't everything, but it does matter. It might matter less, if Troy, like Arkansas State, had a really awesome athletic giving program that keeps the athletic program on an even keel. But you guys largely don't. Troy does great with what they have but I fear what might happen at Troy if the spending level overall gets amped up or revenue falls again.
You don't have many main campus students, you don't have much money, and you lose tons of money even now. Last year, USA, in the midst of a terrible year, had more athletic revenue/giving than Troy.
Troy is the only school playing FBS that has an endowment of 105 million or less, has a main campus undergrad enrollment of less than 8000, and has an athletic department loss of greater than 72.45%. (I used Troy's resources as the benchmark here).
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Furthermore, I don't see any of these metrics changing much even if Neil Brown takes Troy to the promised land of consecutive top 25 seasons. The reason I don't see Troy as a sleeping giant is that winning might not solve the structural reasons that keep the university from being able to really get prominent. Its certainly possible, but just far less likely at Troy than at other schools.
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Troy can be successful. But I just think that structually, they've got a much harder road to become a permanent power at a higher level than they are now.