(08-06-2018 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Ok..I'll bite.

First, I'll define a 'sleeping giant' as follows: a program that has underperformed but has the capacity to transform that significantly due to greater assets (support, location, size, etc.) if they just fixed one or two things. In other words, can you permanently lift your program with a few tweaks. And can that lift be sustained?

So, I'll do it by process of elimination. First I eliminate the schools that are performing at the top of their game and are using just about every tool they have to be competitive.

So I eliminate Troy and ULM. Both of these schools really are maxing out. They both have small undergraduate enrollments and have few main campus growth opportunities. If Troy gets any better, they'll lose their coach and AD, and will have to start over. ULM really doesn't have the student base either, nor are they likely to get one. Both get kudos for doing more with less (we should all do so), but I don't see either of them moving far beyond where they are now. They run efficient programs. But there's not a whole lot left in the tank, so to speak.

Georgia Southern? They're almost like Troy in the sense that they're rural and have a history of putting a lot of resources into athletics. I don't think that making commuter students and students who don't attend classes on campus pay thousands for main campus athletics is going to be a growth strategy (and to their credit GaSo actually did try to protect those students ) so the merger isn't likely to do much.

Coastal? They have a LOT of upside, but they're starting from a low base that sleeping giant might not be the appropriate term for them. Sleeping giant means to me, tweak one or two things and they just take off. CCU appears to have more than a few items to put in place. They have some serious political and resource constraints too.

Arkansas State? Maybe a sleeping giant. They have strong support and the potential for more support. They are helped by the utter decrepitude of their P5 instate rival. Rural location hurts. While the athletic department does well with fundraising, the University does not, which may point to resource constraints going forward. They also have a great AD and appear to not be phased by coach poaching.

App State? Maybe a sleeping giant. Their fan support is enviable. But are there massive numbers of fans that might help them. Like Arkansas State, I think they might be able to turn the product up a notch. The question would be this...will they be able to capitalize on it. How will they handle losing a coach? Are there a bunch of fans that are just on the sidelines that might become more involved financially or as fans? That's the big question. To be a giant, you'll need more resources than you have now.

USA? In a deep sleep. Yes, the pieces are there, with local recruiting, a reasonable market size, no competition, a growing enrollment etc. But USA has never really applied those effectively. The school is rich, but the athletic department doesn't raise money well. I think for USA, could they be like USM was in the 90's and 00s (occasional top 25 teams and marginally nationally relevant)? Yep. Will they do it? Not sure. Will they get the local support to leverage any athletic gains into permanent program improvement? Not sure

Texas State? In a deep sleep. Nobody in the Belt does less with more. Bad, bad, bad, bad AD. Awful coach. They look like an easy fix. Can Ties and Withers and hire someone moderately successful and they'll be fine. They're in the fastest growing place in the country and their enrollment is immense. They definately are a sleeping giant. But Texas State isn't alone in doing less with more in athletics in the Lone Star State. Texas, Texas A&M, UNT, Houston....pretty much they all have enrollments, funding, etc. that other schools in their own conference would kill for....and yet....when it comes time to perform....its largely whomp, whomp.

Georgia State - In a deep sleep. Making all the right moves athleticly. Huge enrollment, but that enrollment is largely detached from athletics. Unlike the other huge football SBC school, their enrollment is not as traditional.

ULL? Actually they are a sleeping giant. They have real support and a base that could grow, even being 90 minutes from Tiger Stadium. When they got better, they managed to translate that into program improvement that appears to be stable. Their problem is just the product. Its just not quite good enough to get the people off the sidelines.

----

So for me, I'd say

Texas State, ULL and Georgia State are sleeping giants. USA, Ark State, and App could be. I really don't think that Georgia Southern or Coastal are really sleeping giants at this time, and both Troy and ULM are effectively using their assets for athletics and due to specific constraints related to their institutions really can only hope for a great year or two before someone steals their coach and the rebuilding starts anew.

Before you get mad at me, I think ULM and Troy will be two of the better programs this year. Being a sleeping giant means that you're really not doing something right.

The Armstrong - Ga Southern merger is a total wildcard. What opportunity would Texas state realize taking over an established university in San Antonio or Austin?

(08-06-2018 06:11 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Ok..I'll bite.

First, I'll define a 'sleeping giant' as follows: a program that has underperformed but has the capacity to transform that significantly due to greater assets (support, location, size, etc.) if they just fixed one or two things. In other words, can you permanently lift your program with a few tweaks. And can that lift be sustained?

So, I'll do it by process of elimination. First I eliminate the schools that are performing at the top of their game and are using just about every tool they have to be competitive.

So I eliminate Troy and ULM. Both of these schools really are maxing out. They both have small undergraduate enrollments and have few main campus growth opportunities. If Troy gets any better, they'll lose their coach and AD, and will have to start over. ULM really doesn't have the student base either, nor are they likely to get one. Both get kudos for doing more with less (we should all do so), but I don't see either of them moving far beyond where they are now. They run efficient programs. But there's not a whole lot left in the tank, so to speak.

Georgia Southern? They're almost like Troy in the sense that they're rural and have a history of putting a lot of resources into athletics. I don't think that making commuter students and students who don't attend classes on campus pay thousands for main campus athletics is going to be a growth strategy (and to their credit GaSo actually did try to protect those students ) so the merger isn't likely to do much.

Coastal? They have a LOT of upside, but they're starting from a low base that sleeping giant might not be the appropriate term for them. Sleeping giant means to me, tweak one or two things and they just take off. CCU appears to have more than a few items to put in place. They have some serious political and resource constraints too.

Arkansas State? Maybe a sleeping giant. They have strong support and the potential for more support. They are helped by the utter decrepitude of their P5 instate rival. Rural location hurts. While the athletic department does well with fundraising, the University does not, which may point to resource constraints going forward. They also have a great AD and appear to not be phased by coach poaching.

App State? Maybe a sleeping giant. Their fan support is enviable. But are there massive numbers of fans that might help them. Like Arkansas State, I think they might be able to turn the product up a notch. The question would be this...will they be able to capitalize on it. How will they handle losing a coach? Are there a bunch of fans that are just on the sidelines that might become more involved financially or as fans? That's the big question. To be a giant, you'll need more resources than you have now.

USA? In a deep sleep. Yes, the pieces are there, with local recruiting, a reasonable market size, no competition, a growing enrollment etc. But USA has never really applied those effectively. The school is rich, but the athletic department doesn't raise money well. I think for USA, could they be like USM was in the 90's and 00s (occasional top 25 teams and marginally nationally relevant)? Yep. Will they do it? Not sure. Will they get the local support to leverage any athletic gains into permanent program improvement? Not sure

Texas State? In a deep sleep. Nobody in the Belt does less with more. Bad, bad, bad, bad AD. Awful coach. They look like an easy fix. Can Ties and Withers and hire someone moderately successful and they'll be fine. They're in the fastest growing place in the country and their enrollment is immense. They definately are a sleeping giant. But Texas State isn't alone in doing less with more in athletics in the Lone Star State. Texas, Texas A&M, UNT, Houston....pretty much they all have enrollments, funding, etc. that other schools in their own conference would kill for....and yet....when it comes time to perform....its largely whomp, whomp.

Georgia State - In a deep sleep. Making all the right moves athleticly. Huge enrollment, but that enrollment is largely detached from athletics. Unlike the other huge football SBC school, their enrollment is not as traditional.

ULL? Actually they are a sleeping giant. They have real support and a base that could grow, even being 90 minutes from Tiger Stadium. When they got better, they managed to translate that into program improvement that appears to be stable. Their problem is just the product. Its just not quite good enough to get the people off the sidelines.

----

So for me, I'd say

Texas State, ULL and Georgia State are sleeping giants. USA, Ark State, and App could be. I really don't think that Georgia Southern or Coastal are really sleeping giants at this time, and both Troy and ULM are effectively using their assets for athletics and due to specific constraints related to their institutions really can only hope for a great year or two before someone steals their coach and the rebuilding starts anew.

Before you get mad at me, I think ULM and Troy will be two of the better programs this year. Being a sleeping giant means that you're really not doing something right.

The Armstrong - Ga Southern merger is a total wildcard. What opportunity would Texas state realize taking over an established university in San Antonio or Austin?

For their athletic program -probably very little. Students at Armstrong probably won't attend Statesboro events in any significant numbers, nor will they have much interaction with the athletic program. It will help your athletic bottom line, but will add a bunch of students that might complain loudly if the athletic fees start rising again.

(08-06-2018 06:21 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 06:11 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Ok..I'll bite.

First, I'll define a 'sleeping giant' as follows: a program that has underperformed but has the capacity to transform that significantly due to greater assets (support, location, size, etc.) if they just fixed one or two things. In other words, can you permanently lift your program with a few tweaks. And can that lift be sustained?

So, I'll do it by process of elimination. First I eliminate the schools that are performing at the top of their game and are using just about every tool they have to be competitive.

So I eliminate Troy and ULM. Both of these schools really are maxing out. They both have small undergraduate enrollments and have few main campus growth opportunities. If Troy gets any better, they'll lose their coach and AD, and will have to start over. ULM really doesn't have the student base either, nor are they likely to get one. Both get kudos for doing more with less (we should all do so), but I don't see either of them moving far beyond where they are now. They run efficient programs. But there's not a whole lot left in the tank, so to speak.

Georgia Southern? They're almost like Troy in the sense that they're rural and have a history of putting a lot of resources into athletics. I don't think that making commuter students and students who don't attend classes on campus pay thousands for main campus athletics is going to be a growth strategy (and to their credit GaSo actually did try to protect those students ) so the merger isn't likely to do much.

Coastal? They have a LOT of upside, but they're starting from a low base that sleeping giant might not be the appropriate term for them. Sleeping giant means to me, tweak one or two things and they just take off. CCU appears to have more than a few items to put in place. They have some serious political and resource constraints too.

Arkansas State? Maybe a sleeping giant. They have strong support and the potential for more support. They are helped by the utter decrepitude of their P5 instate rival. Rural location hurts. While the athletic department does well with fundraising, the University does not, which may point to resource constraints going forward. They also have a great AD and appear to not be phased by coach poaching.

App State? Maybe a sleeping giant. Their fan support is enviable. But are there massive numbers of fans that might help them. Like Arkansas State, I think they might be able to turn the product up a notch. The question would be this...will they be able to capitalize on it. How will they handle losing a coach? Are there a bunch of fans that are just on the sidelines that might become more involved financially or as fans? That's the big question. To be a giant, you'll need more resources than you have now.

USA? In a deep sleep. Yes, the pieces are there, with local recruiting, a reasonable market size, no competition, a growing enrollment etc. But USA has never really applied those effectively. The school is rich, but the athletic department doesn't raise money well. I think for USA, could they be like USM was in the 90's and 00s (occasional top 25 teams and marginally nationally relevant)? Yep. Will they do it? Not sure. Will they get the local support to leverage any athletic gains into permanent program improvement? Not sure

Texas State? In a deep sleep. Nobody in the Belt does less with more. Bad, bad, bad, bad AD. Awful coach. They look like an easy fix. Can Ties and Withers and hire someone moderately successful and they'll be fine. They're in the fastest growing place in the country and their enrollment is immense. They definately are a sleeping giant. But Texas State isn't alone in doing less with more in athletics in the Lone Star State. Texas, Texas A&M, UNT, Houston....pretty much they all have enrollments, funding, etc. that other schools in their own conference would kill for....and yet....when it comes time to perform....its largely whomp, whomp.

Georgia State - In a deep sleep. Making all the right moves athleticly. Huge enrollment, but that enrollment is largely detached from athletics. Unlike the other huge football SBC school, their enrollment is not as traditional.

ULL? Actually they are a sleeping giant. They have real support and a base that could grow, even being 90 minutes from Tiger Stadium. When they got better, they managed to translate that into program improvement that appears to be stable. Their problem is just the product. Its just not quite good enough to get the people off the sidelines.

----

So for me, I'd say

Texas State, ULL and Georgia State are sleeping giants. USA, Ark State, and App could be. I really don't think that Georgia Southern or Coastal are really sleeping giants at this time, and both Troy and ULM are effectively using their assets for athletics and due to specific constraints related to their institutions really can only hope for a great year or two before someone steals their coach and the rebuilding starts anew.

Before you get mad at me, I think ULM and Troy will be two of the better programs this year. Being a sleeping giant means that you're really not doing something right.

The Armstrong - Ga Southern merger is a total wildcard. What opportunity would Texas state realize taking over an established university in San Antonio or Austin?

For their athletic program -probably very little. Students at Armstrong probably won't attend Statesboro events in any significant numbers, nor will they have much interaction with the athletic program. It will help your athletic bottom line, but will add a bunch of students that might complain loudly if the athletic fees start rising again.

Savannah isn't San Antonio or Austin but it is the second largest metro in Georgia and Armstrong is the marque university in Savannah. The east side of Bulloch county is booming due to a booming western Chatham county. Rural property values have double in the past six months in eastern Bulloch county. I can travel from my home with a Statesboro address to this rapidly expanding area in 20 minutes. The two metros are growing closer with major road and intestate expansion underway or soon to be. GS needs Savannah and will make every effort to include the students who choose or need to attend the Savannah campus. Much of which will be overlap making back and forth busing a necessity or changing campuses in mid stream. Time will tell if the merger leads to any positive but effort will be significant to make sure the campus in included in all that's GS.

(08-06-2018 06:11 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Ok..I'll bite.

First, I'll define a 'sleeping giant' as follows: a program that has underperformed but has the capacity to transform that significantly due to greater assets (support, location, size, etc.) if they just fixed one or two things. In other words, can you permanently lift your program with a few tweaks. And can that lift be sustained?

So, I'll do it by process of elimination. First I eliminate the schools that are performing at the top of their game and are using just about every tool they have to be competitive.

So I eliminate Troy and ULM. Both of these schools really are maxing out. They both have small undergraduate enrollments and have few main campus growth opportunities. If Troy gets any better, they'll lose their coach and AD, and will have to start over. ULM really doesn't have the student base either, nor are they likely to get one. Both get kudos for doing more with less (we should all do so), but I don't see either of them moving far beyond where they are now. They run efficient programs. But there's not a whole lot left in the tank, so to speak.

Georgia Southern? They're almost like Troy in the sense that they're rural and have a history of putting a lot of resources into athletics. I don't think that making commuter students and students who don't attend classes on campus pay thousands for main campus athletics is going to be a growth strategy (and to their credit GaSo actually did try to protect those students ) so the merger isn't likely to do much.

Coastal? They have a LOT of upside, but they're starting from a low base that sleeping giant might not be the appropriate term for them. Sleeping giant means to me, tweak one or two things and they just take off. CCU appears to have more than a few items to put in place. They have some serious political and resource constraints too.

Arkansas State? Maybe a sleeping giant. They have strong support and the potential for more support. They are helped by the utter decrepitude of their P5 instate rival. Rural location hurts. While the athletic department does well with fundraising, the University does not, which may point to resource constraints going forward. They also have a great AD and appear to not be phased by coach poaching.

App State? Maybe a sleeping giant. Their fan support is enviable. But are there massive numbers of fans that might help them. Like Arkansas State, I think they might be able to turn the product up a notch. The question would be this...will they be able to capitalize on it. How will they handle losing a coach? Are there a bunch of fans that are just on the sidelines that might become more involved financially or as fans? That's the big question. To be a giant, you'll need more resources than you have now.

USA? In a deep sleep. Yes, the pieces are there, with local recruiting, a reasonable market size, no competition, a growing enrollment etc. But USA has never really applied those effectively. The school is rich, but the athletic department doesn't raise money well. I think for USA, could they be like USM was in the 90's and 00s (occasional top 25 teams and marginally nationally relevant)? Yep. Will they do it? Not sure. Will they get the local support to leverage any athletic gains into permanent program improvement? Not sure

Texas State? In a deep sleep. Nobody in the Belt does less with more. Bad, bad, bad, bad AD. Awful coach. They look like an easy fix. Can Ties and Withers and hire someone moderately successful and they'll be fine. They're in the fastest growing place in the country and their enrollment is immense. They definately are a sleeping giant. But Texas State isn't alone in doing less with more in athletics in the Lone Star State. Texas, Texas A&M, UNT, Houston....pretty much they all have enrollments, funding, etc. that other schools in their own conference would kill for....and yet....when it comes time to perform....its largely whomp, whomp.

Georgia State - In a deep sleep. Making all the right moves athleticly. Huge enrollment, but that enrollment is largely detached from athletics. Unlike the other huge football SBC school, their enrollment is not as traditional.

ULL? Actually they are a sleeping giant. They have real support and a base that could grow, even being 90 minutes from Tiger Stadium. When they got better, they managed to translate that into program improvement that appears to be stable. Their problem is just the product. Its just not quite good enough to get the people off the sidelines.

----

So for me, I'd say

Texas State, ULL and Georgia State are sleeping giants. USA, Ark State, and App could be. I really don't think that Georgia Southern or Coastal are really sleeping giants at this time, and both Troy and ULM are effectively using their assets for athletics and due to specific constraints related to their institutions really can only hope for a great year or two before someone steals their coach and the rebuilding starts anew.

Before you get mad at me, I think ULM and Troy will be two of the better programs this year. Being a sleeping giant means that you're really not doing something right.

The Armstrong - Ga Southern merger is a total wildcard. What opportunity would Texas state realize taking over an established university in San Antonio or Austin?

None. We already have a campus in Round Rock which is North Austin. Besides most in Austin are already UT fans. We probably aren't going to convert anyone. If anything we'd be lucky to become some casuals second team

A-State is the sleeping f'n giant . . . we're about to wake up and shock the world . . .

(08-06-2018 08:24 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 06:11 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Ok..I'll bite.

First, I'll define a 'sleeping giant' as follows: a program that has underperformed but has the capacity to transform that significantly due to greater assets (support, location, size, etc.) if they just fixed one or two things. In other words, can you permanently lift your program with a few tweaks. And can that lift be sustained?

So, I'll do it by process of elimination. First I eliminate the schools that are performing at the top of their game and are using just about every tool they have to be competitive.

So I eliminate Troy and ULM. Both of these schools really are maxing out. They both have small undergraduate enrollments and have few main campus growth opportunities. If Troy gets any better, they'll lose their coach and AD, and will have to start over. ULM really doesn't have the student base either, nor are they likely to get one. Both get kudos for doing more with less (we should all do so), but I don't see either of them moving far beyond where they are now. They run efficient programs. But there's not a whole lot left in the tank, so to speak.

Georgia Southern? They're almost like Troy in the sense that they're rural and have a history of putting a lot of resources into athletics. I don't think that making commuter students and students who don't attend classes on campus pay thousands for main campus athletics is going to be a growth strategy (and to their credit GaSo actually did try to protect those students ) so the merger isn't likely to do much.

Coastal? They have a LOT of upside, but they're starting from a low base that sleeping giant might not be the appropriate term for them. Sleeping giant means to me, tweak one or two things and they just take off. CCU appears to have more than a few items to put in place. They have some serious political and resource constraints too.

Arkansas State? Maybe a sleeping giant. They have strong support and the potential for more support. They are helped by the utter decrepitude of their P5 instate rival. Rural location hurts. While the athletic department does well with fundraising, the University does not, which may point to resource constraints going forward. They also have a great AD and appear to not be phased by coach poaching.

App State? Maybe a sleeping giant. Their fan support is enviable. But are there massive numbers of fans that might help them. Like Arkansas State, I think they might be able to turn the product up a notch. The question would be this...will they be able to capitalize on it. How will they handle losing a coach? Are there a bunch of fans that are just on the sidelines that might become more involved financially or as fans? That's the big question. To be a giant, you'll need more resources than you have now.

USA? In a deep sleep. Yes, the pieces are there, with local recruiting, a reasonable market size, no competition, a growing enrollment etc. But USA has never really applied those effectively. The school is rich, but the athletic department doesn't raise money well. I think for USA, could they be like USM was in the 90's and 00s (occasional top 25 teams and marginally nationally relevant)? Yep. Will they do it? Not sure. Will they get the local support to leverage any athletic gains into permanent program improvement? Not sure

Texas State? In a deep sleep. Nobody in the Belt does less with more. Bad, bad, bad, bad AD. Awful coach. They look like an easy fix. Can Ties and Withers and hire someone moderately successful and they'll be fine. They're in the fastest growing place in the country and their enrollment is immense. They definately are a sleeping giant. But Texas State isn't alone in doing less with more in athletics in the Lone Star State. Texas, Texas A&M, UNT, Houston....pretty much they all have enrollments, funding, etc. that other schools in their own conference would kill for....and yet....when it comes time to perform....its largely whomp, whomp.

Georgia State - In a deep sleep. Making all the right moves athleticly. Huge enrollment, but that enrollment is largely detached from athletics. Unlike the other huge football SBC school, their enrollment is not as traditional.

ULL? Actually they are a sleeping giant. They have real support and a base that could grow, even being 90 minutes from Tiger Stadium. When they got better, they managed to translate that into program improvement that appears to be stable. Their problem is just the product. Its just not quite good enough to get the people off the sidelines.

----

So for me, I'd say

Texas State, ULL and Georgia State are sleeping giants. USA, Ark State, and App could be. I really don't think that Georgia Southern or Coastal are really sleeping giants at this time, and both Troy and ULM are effectively using their assets for athletics and due to specific constraints related to their institutions really can only hope for a great year or two before someone steals their coach and the rebuilding starts anew.

Before you get mad at me, I think ULM and Troy will be two of the better programs this year. Being a sleeping giant means that you're really not doing something right.

The Armstrong - Ga Southern merger is a total wildcard. What opportunity would Texas state realize taking over an established university in San Antonio or Austin?

None. We already have a campus in Round Rock which is North Austin. Besides most in Austin are already UT fans. We probably aren't going to convert anyone. If anything we'd be lucky to become some casuals second team

Nice and new but not an established flagship university in the heart of Austin.

(08-06-2018 08:40 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 08:24 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 06:11 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Ok..I'll bite.

First, I'll define a 'sleeping giant' as follows: a program that has underperformed but has the capacity to transform that significantly due to greater assets (support, location, size, etc.) if they just fixed one or two things. In other words, can you permanently lift your program with a few tweaks. And can that lift be sustained?

So, I'll do it by process of elimination. First I eliminate the schools that are performing at the top of their game and are using just about every tool they have to be competitive.

So I eliminate Troy and ULM. Both of these schools really are maxing out. They both have small undergraduate enrollments and have few main campus growth opportunities. If Troy gets any better, they'll lose their coach and AD, and will have to start over. ULM really doesn't have the student base either, nor are they likely to get one. Both get kudos for doing more with less (we should all do so), but I don't see either of them moving far beyond where they are now. They run efficient programs. But there's not a whole lot left in the tank, so to speak.

Georgia Southern? They're almost like Troy in the sense that they're rural and have a history of putting a lot of resources into athletics. I don't think that making commuter students and students who don't attend classes on campus pay thousands for main campus athletics is going to be a growth strategy (and to their credit GaSo actually did try to protect those students ) so the merger isn't likely to do much.

Coastal? They have a LOT of upside, but they're starting from a low base that sleeping giant might not be the appropriate term for them. Sleeping giant means to me, tweak one or two things and they just take off. CCU appears to have more than a few items to put in place. They have some serious political and resource constraints too.

Arkansas State? Maybe a sleeping giant. They have strong support and the potential for more support. They are helped by the utter decrepitude of their P5 instate rival. Rural location hurts. While the athletic department does well with fundraising, the University does not, which may point to resource constraints going forward. They also have a great AD and appear to not be phased by coach poaching.

App State? Maybe a sleeping giant. Their fan support is enviable. But are there massive numbers of fans that might help them. Like Arkansas State, I think they might be able to turn the product up a notch. The question would be this...will they be able to capitalize on it. How will they handle losing a coach? Are there a bunch of fans that are just on the sidelines that might become more involved financially or as fans? That's the big question. To be a giant, you'll need more resources than you have now.

USA? In a deep sleep. Yes, the pieces are there, with local recruiting, a reasonable market size, no competition, a growing enrollment etc. But USA has never really applied those effectively. The school is rich, but the athletic department doesn't raise money well. I think for USA, could they be like USM was in the 90's and 00s (occasional top 25 teams and marginally nationally relevant)? Yep. Will they do it? Not sure. Will they get the local support to leverage any athletic gains into permanent program improvement? Not sure

Texas State? In a deep sleep. Nobody in the Belt does less with more. Bad, bad, bad, bad AD. Awful coach. They look like an easy fix. Can Ties and Withers and hire someone moderately successful and they'll be fine. They're in the fastest growing place in the country and their enrollment is immense. They definately are a sleeping giant. But Texas State isn't alone in doing less with more in athletics in the Lone Star State. Texas, Texas A&M, UNT, Houston....pretty much they all have enrollments, funding, etc. that other schools in their own conference would kill for....and yet....when it comes time to perform....its largely whomp, whomp.

Georgia State - In a deep sleep. Making all the right moves athleticly. Huge enrollment, but that enrollment is largely detached from athletics. Unlike the other huge football SBC school, their enrollment is not as traditional.

ULL? Actually they are a sleeping giant. They have real support and a base that could grow, even being 90 minutes from Tiger Stadium. When they got better, they managed to translate that into program improvement that appears to be stable. Their problem is just the product. Its just not quite good enough to get the people off the sidelines.

----

So for me, I'd say

Texas State, ULL and Georgia State are sleeping giants. USA, Ark State, and App could be. I really don't think that Georgia Southern or Coastal are really sleeping giants at this time, and both Troy and ULM are effectively using their assets for athletics and due to specific constraints related to their institutions really can only hope for a great year or two before someone steals their coach and the rebuilding starts anew.

Before you get mad at me, I think ULM and Troy will be two of the better programs this year. Being a sleeping giant means that you're really not doing something right.

The Armstrong - Ga Southern merger is a total wildcard. What opportunity would Texas state realize taking over an established university in San Antonio or Austin?

None. We already have a campus in Round Rock which is North Austin. Besides most in Austin are already UT fans. We probably aren't going to convert anyone. If anything we'd be lucky to become some casuals second team

Nice and new but not an established flagship university in the heart of Austin.

Point was we dont need to acquire a university in Austin. Doing so probably wouldn't benefit us. Now if we started one in San Antonio about 20 years ago that might have helped. Maybe some people become Bobcat fans since UTSA didnt get a team until 2012. Maybe not. Either way most people in San Antonio are either UT or Aggie fans.

I got back to this tonight. Seems I've struck a chord. You guys pretty well defined the "sleeping giant" for me. I still think South Alabama has huge potential if they can tap into something more than what they have now. I know their football is going to improve with this new coach. I'll be shocked if it doesn't. It's that kind of city that, if it decides to get behind a university, could create a major impact in about 20 years.

As for stAte, I think we will always be the little school blasting away with less than others and over achieving considering our situation. The support is growing but Jonesboro isn't big enough to go huge (yet) and will always fight that other school for support. The brainwashing for support of those guys runs really deep. To the point that I read a story in today's paper where they had a developmentally challenged girl due to a medical condition. She could barely speak but our newspaper made sure the readers knew part of the 2 dozen words she knew were "woo pig sooie".

(08-06-2018 07:25 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 06:21 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 06:11 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(08-06-2018 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Ok..I'll bite.

First, I'll define a 'sleeping giant' as follows: a program that has underperformed but has the capacity to transform that significantly due to greater assets (support, location, size, etc.) if they just fixed one or two things. In other words, can you permanently lift your program with a few tweaks. And can that lift be sustained?

So, I'll do it by process of elimination. First I eliminate the schools that are performing at the top of their game and are using just about every tool they have to be competitive.

So I eliminate Troy and ULM. Both of these schools really are maxing out. They both have small undergraduate enrollments and have few main campus growth opportunities. If Troy gets any better, they'll lose their coach and AD, and will have to start over. ULM really doesn't have the student base either, nor are they likely to get one. Both get kudos for doing more with less (we should all do so), but I don't see either of them moving far beyond where they are now. They run efficient programs. But there's not a whole lot left in the tank, so to speak.

Georgia Southern? They're almost like Troy in the sense that they're rural and have a history of putting a lot of resources into athletics. I don't think that making commuter students and students who don't attend classes on campus pay thousands for main campus athletics is going to be a growth strategy (and to their credit GaSo actually did try to protect those students ) so the merger isn't likely to do much.

Coastal? They have a LOT of upside, but they're starting from a low base that sleeping giant might not be the appropriate term for them. Sleeping giant means to me, tweak one or two things and they just take off. CCU appears to have more than a few items to put in place. They have some serious political and resource constraints too.

Arkansas State? Maybe a sleeping giant. They have strong support and the potential for more support. They are helped by the utter decrepitude of their P5 instate rival. Rural location hurts. While the athletic department does well with fundraising, the University does not, which may point to resource constraints going forward. They also have a great AD and appear to not be phased by coach poaching.

App State? Maybe a sleeping giant. Their fan support is enviable. But are there massive numbers of fans that might help them. Like Arkansas State, I think they might be able to turn the product up a notch. The question would be this...will they be able to capitalize on it. How will they handle losing a coach? Are there a bunch of fans that are just on the sidelines that might become more involved financially or as fans? That's the big question. To be a giant, you'll need more resources than you have now.

USA? In a deep sleep. Yes, the pieces are there, with local recruiting, a reasonable market size, no competition, a growing enrollment etc. But USA has never really applied those effectively. The school is rich, but the athletic department doesn't raise money well. I think for USA, could they be like USM was in the 90's and 00s (occasional top 25 teams and marginally nationally relevant)? Yep. Will they do it? Not sure. Will they get the local support to leverage any athletic gains into permanent program improvement? Not sure

Texas State? In a deep sleep. Nobody in the Belt does less with more. Bad, bad, bad, bad AD. Awful coach. They look like an easy fix. Can Ties and Withers and hire someone moderately successful and they'll be fine. They're in the fastest growing place in the country and their enrollment is immense. They definately are a sleeping giant. But Texas State isn't alone in doing less with more in athletics in the Lone Star State. Texas, Texas A&M, UNT, Houston....pretty much they all have enrollments, funding, etc. that other schools in their own conference would kill for....and yet....when it comes time to perform....its largely whomp, whomp.

Georgia State - In a deep sleep. Making all the right moves athleticly. Huge enrollment, but that enrollment is largely detached from athletics. Unlike the other huge football SBC school, their enrollment is not as traditional.

ULL? Actually they are a sleeping giant. They have real support and a base that could grow, even being 90 minutes from Tiger Stadium. When they got better, they managed to translate that into program improvement that appears to be stable. Their problem is just the product. Its just not quite good enough to get the people off the sidelines.

----

So for me, I'd say

Texas State, ULL and Georgia State are sleeping giants. USA, Ark State, and App could be. I really don't think that Georgia Southern or Coastal are really sleeping giants at this time, and both Troy and ULM are effectively using their assets for athletics and due to specific constraints related to their institutions really can only hope for a great year or two before someone steals their coach and the rebuilding starts anew.

Before you get mad at me, I think ULM and Troy will be two of the better programs this year. Being a sleeping giant means that you're really not doing something right.

The Armstrong - Ga Southern merger is a total wildcard. What opportunity would Texas state realize taking over an established university in San Antonio or Austin?

For their athletic program -probably very little. Students at Armstrong probably won't attend Statesboro events in any significant numbers, nor will they have much interaction with the athletic program. It will help your athletic bottom line, but will add a bunch of students that might complain loudly if the athletic fees start rising again.

Savannah isn't San Antonio or Austin but it is the second largest metro in Georgia and Armstrong is the marque university in Savannah. The east side of Bulloch county is booming due to a booming western Chatham county. Rural property values have double in the past six months in eastern Bulloch county. I can travel from my home with a Statesboro address to this rapidly expanding area in 20 minutes. The two metros are growing closer with major road and intestate expansion underway or soon to be. GS needs Savannah and will make every effort to include the students who choose or need to attend the Savannah campus. Much of which will be overlap making back and forth busing a necessity or changing campuses in mid stream. Time will tell if the merger leads to any positive but effort will be significant to make sure the campus in included in all that's GS.

Those rural property values have skyrocketed because a huge tract of land has just been bought up on 67 for a major subdivision. Statesboro and Savannah are expanding toward each other with lots of Savannians choosing to live in Statesboro and Pooler and commute rather than move into the city. I used to do that for a long time.

It’s also important to note that GS didn’t just take over some community college or add a satellite campus. Armstrong was a university in its own right and its campus has the capacity and will eventually have just as many students as USA or ULM on that one campus. Georgia Southern is moving some of its colleges onto that campus and GS will be a dual campus system from here on out.

The athletic fee that the Savannah campus students pay covers free admission to all sporting events and free transportation to all home football games. Whether or not they partake is up to them just like with any student perk. There are also going to be several athletic events held on the Savannah campus and the football team is actually going to go down to Savannah to hold a practice/fan fest in a few weeks. Like I said, the athletics are present and the Armstrong students can partake in them or not.

There is no "sleeping giant" in the SBC. What we can hope for is a conference of schools led by smart administrators committed to building a athletic program and its teams as winners over an extended period of time. Doing so will result in growing revenues and the fan base which will keep the schools more viable and competitive in coming years. I like the fact that many of our schools are located in rural/non metro area's. It gives us the opportunity to grow close supportive fans with our teams being the primary attraction for local entertainment and the sports dollars. Collectively, we need to challenge any school administration which doesn't add vaule to the conference image and athletic performance.

(08-06-2018 08:27 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  A-State is the sleeping f'n giant . . . we're about to wake up and shock the world . . .

Yep, I'm thinkin' this is the year the Beasts of Arkansas State win at LEAST 2 OOC games (not counting postseason bowls). Wake TFU StAte... and represent!!

I don't always agree with Tom in Lazybrook. In fact, I disagree with him often. But he's spot on with his analysis.

I remember a conversation with former Commissioner Wright Waters. We were talking about the future and I asked him about programs that could, over time, be really good in the Sun Belt.

His response? Georgia State and South Alabama. Georgia State hadn't even joined the league yet and South was just starting football.

At the time, Texas State wasn't on anybody's radar. I agree with everything said about the richness of the area, the enrollment etc etc. But reality is, they haven't shown they can get it done. AD's fault? Coach's fault? You have a pro sports town to the south and a giant to the North. Can there be enough growth? Who knows. But that giant is comatose until they prove they can get off the canvas.

If I had a dollar every time I heard Louisiana referred to as a "sleeping giant" I could buy all of you dinner. And, we wouldn't have to go to McDonalds. Their athletic department suffered from years of neglect to the point where they were the second lowest budget in the FBS. They still have a long way to go. But the AD has a vision, the President is on board and very good coaches are being hired. If the Cajuns can't get it done with the leadership they have in place, it won't get done.

People in 2010 said Troy was maxed out, yet here we are in 2017 and 2018 winning more games and getting ranked.

Why are the programs that aren't sleeping upset that people are saying they aren't sleeping?

Troy, A-State, Georgia Southern, App, etc. You guys are awake and should be happy you're not sleeping like some of us are.

(08-07-2018 08:40 AM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  People in 2010 said Troy was maxed out, yet here we are in 2017 and 2018 winning more games and getting ranked.

Depends on how you define 'sleeping giant'. You have a good football coach and a good AD. But I think there's a structural limit on Troy that other SBC schools don't have.

I think you will compete for the championship next year.

But can your program translate the improvement of the last 2 seasons into permanent success? That's the difference between a 'good run' and a 'sleeping giant'.

Here's the limitations that I see with Troy

1) Undergraduate, main campus enrollment. Troy has about 7600 undergrads. That's a small number and one that's not likely to increase much further. Sure, you have 11k other students, either online or on satillite campuses but that's not likely to be much of a benefit. The school also has limited academic offerings compared to other schools in the region which might hamper further enrollment growth.

2) Rural location. Troy is in a very rural environment, and has strong support in Pike County, but there just isn't much of a local population to leverage off of. Troy could try to break into the Montgomery market (about an hour away), but I think the pull of Auburn and Alabama (both closer and Auburn is starting to be local to Montgomery) is much stronger there than in other areas. I think perhaps Dothan might be a better area to exploit.

3) Troy is relatively poor, with an endowment of only 100 million. That could change with football success, but that's also unlikely because, Troy also has a relatively small donor base. So Troy has a small alumni base and isn't in an area with a lot of economic activity either where they might pick up much consistent support from the local business community. They might get a donor or two drop a biggish check, but that's a small amount. And here's a bigger problem. Troy subsidizes athletics using 21 million bucks a year from the students/taxpayers. If that money was simply allocated from the main campus enrollment, then that implies a $2,861 athletic fee subsidy PER YEAR per main campus student. Or $11,447 for a four year degree. Now, its probably true that the off campus students are paying much of the bill (they'd have to be), but that is not much of a growth strategy. Eventually, schools with similar offerings (like AUM, for example) will start eating Troy's lunch in enrollment if they sock it to students that aren't participating in athletics that much. Troy's small on campus enrollment creates issues for them if they try to subsidize their program more on student fees too.

A quick aside, the one or two big donor model is far less sustainable than the broad and consistent donor model. That's one reason why USA is so tightfisted with the funds donated by one massive donor (the school would still be very well off otherwise). They know that they're not going to have another non-alumnus walk into the school and start writing 50 million dollar checks tomorrow. No idea if that's a constraint on Troy, but it is at USA and probably is at CCU.

Size and money matter. Markets, for all of our laughing at CUSA do matter when it comes to potential. The reason why were happy with Troy in the conference over, say, UNCC, is that potential isn't the same as a result.

So, purely from a perspecitive of 'can you elevate your program significantly and permanently with a few tweaks', I'm not seeing it as likely from Troy as from others, simply based upon size, market, and finances. The sad truth of the matter is that Troy will have long term trouble competing against competitors with greater resources. The good truth for Troy is that Troy certainly uses its assets more effectively than others in competition and allocation, which is why Troy has performed better than schools with greater resources. But that's no always a game that can be exploited permanently.

Again, this isn't about how good you are, but how good you can become.

(08-07-2018 12:07 PM)_x_ Wrote:  Why are the programs that aren't sleeping upset that people are saying they aren't sleeping?

Troy, A-State, Georgia Southern, App, etc. You guys are awake and should be happy you're not sleeping like some of us are.

I don't think we were upset, I think Georgia Southern fans just wanted to explain that we weren't "maxed out." Georgia Southern is making lots of moves in preparation for another expected growth spurt in the coming years.

(08-07-2018 12:07 PM)_x_ Wrote:  Why are the programs that aren't sleeping upset that people are saying they aren't sleeping?

Troy, A-State, Georgia Southern, App, etc. You guys are awake and should be happy you're not sleeping like some of us are.

Here's the rub. Would you rather have a program that's doing well but really will have trouble getting better consistently or a program that's doing poorly that COULD get rather good consistently.

Most people want both.

I personally would be fine with doing great, no relatively easy path to leverage success into permanent prominence over we suck...but maybe someday....

But others might disagree.

(08-06-2018 08:27 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  A-State is the sleeping f'n giant . . . we're about to wake up and shock the world . . .

Form once I agree. Arkansas State has more potential than anybody in the Sun Belt to shock the world. They will get beat by Alabama 112-0 and be the first team in college football history to lose by 100+. #giantstatus

(08-06-2018 11:30 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I eliminate Troy and ULM. Both of these schools really are maxing out. They both have small undergraduate enrollments and have few main campus growth opportunities. If Troy gets any better, they'll lose their coach and AD, and will have to start over.

...both Troy and ULM are effectively using their assets for athletics and due to specific constraints related to their institutions really can only hope for a great year or two before someone steals their coach and the rebuilding starts anew.

Before you get mad at me, I think ULM and Troy will be two of the better programs this year. Being a sleeping giant means that you're really not doing something right.

They said we maxed out in 2007, went on to win three more titles. MTSU fans accused us of cheating at least once a week. This board said we'd never get a coach as good as Larry. We did, and the program is in way better shape despite winning five straight titles. They said it would be a revolving door, yet Neal Brown has been here four years.

When we hired Neal Brown, the money for his coaching pool was tops in the SBC. We'll probably do that again. We're not as maxed out as people think. If we keep winning, we can make Troy a destination school for coaches, a lot like Houston has been.

Obvious answer is Georgia State. They made a lot of awful decisions early on but with their budget and location, when they get their stars aligned, especially with all they're doing facility wise... I like for them to take off. They basically already have basketball on lock. I can easily seeing them being the next UCF type school if they can get their football program together. I also think they have the most potential to get out of the Sunbelt if they get their act together and another shift happens. Troy and Ark State are good programs, but I don't think either will ever go further than the belt. Just my opinion though.