(04-22-2018 12:03 PM)slycat Wrote: Can only go up. Won't be the worst team in the SBC this year.
While you'll probably be better than last year, I'm not sure you won't be the worst team in the league next year
Here are the candidates.
1) Texas State - Went 1-10 vs FBS, only beat Coastal Carolina on the road, and only came close to winning in 2 home games. The good news is that the team didn't lose a lot of players. Schedule is somewhat manageable, with 5 teams who didn't qualify for a bowl last year, but one of those is a P5 and 3 of them are on the road. If Texas State 'gets better' but not a lot better and cant get it done on the road, they might finish last again.
2) USA - Went 3-8 vs FBS, and has a new coach. Good news is that USA actually has a good defense and returns most of their key players. USA plays 6 teams that didn't qualify for a bowl last year (4 at home). Campbell has some talent to work with. USA's schedule is rough from the perspective of competing for a conference championship, but not a bad one for competing for 'not being last'. USA's problem .... a lack of a functioning offense. Fix that and USA would be reasonably formidable. The pieces appear to be there.
3) Coastal Carolina - Went 3-8 vs FBS with a FCS loss, but improved towards the end of the season. They didn't seem to play a whole lot worse on the road too, which is a good thing because....their schedule pretty much sucks if they're trying to escape the cellar in a disappointing year. CCU plays 5 non-bowl 2017 qualifying teams next year, but 3 are on the road.
4) Georgia Southern - Went 3-8 vs FBS with a FCS loss, but got a lot better towards year end. And they return everyone. But they were probably the worst team in the nation when they turned it around. Plays 6 non-bowl 2017 qualifying teams, and gets 3 of them at home. Their schedule is actually a GOOD one if they were strong enough to compete for a conference championship (Troy, App, and Ark State at home), but if they can't win on the road, it could get ugly.
5) ULL - Went 4-7 vs FBS last year, and struggled towards the end. Has a new coach. Plays 5 teams that didn't qualify for a 2017 bowl, and gets 3 of them at home. Have some holes to fill and need to work on the defense.
6) ULM - Went 4-7 vs FBS last year. Great offense and lots of returning players. Defense is bad though. Real bad. Plays 6 teams that didn't qualify for a 2017 bowl and gets 4 of them at home. I think this is an unlikely candidate for 'worst'.
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I think all these teams are legitimate candidates for 'worst in the Belt', but if you put a gun to my head and made me pick one, I'd pick Texas State. I think most of the Belt will be better this year (as will Texas State, most likely), but I just don't have any confidence in your coach and your schedule, from the persepective of having a below average team trying to escape the cellar, is less favorable than others similarly situated.