(08-27-2018 07:52 AM)LION KING Wrote:  :The new guy !! I've been a fan for quite sometime and have been following the tribe for about 3 years. Question Everyone keeps praising and complementing the newest arrivals to the program. They will have little or no impact on this years team, So why not give the veterans their do ?

I think you will find that this freshman class will get more minutes than recent groups. A lot will depend on how quickly they pick up the offense...and the defense. So, any discussion of the team would have to include them, as, at least, a couple should see appreciable amounts of floor time. Last year's depth was very shallow. Whether or not anyone else has taken big improvement steps will definitely be an important storyline for this season.

Otherwise, I think most here have reinforced that we will go as far as the Big Three will take us. We hope that is VERY far.

Welcome to the Board.

Billymac already hit the nail on the head, but the thing that we all have to acknowledge is that the freshmen are going to be getting plenty of playing time - so their performance (good or bad) will drive a lot of this year's results. They obviously aren't expected to be leaders, but I don't think there's much doubt they'll need to be contributors for this to be a successful season. The returners will have to lead in showing them how to do that and in carrying the bulk of the load (especially early).

My hope is that with all of the playing time, they will mature more quickly than the typical first years.

We graduated 2,611 minutes of playing time with the departing senior class (and Mustafa). That is equivalent to 84 minutes/games (slightly more than two positions).

And of the big three, NONE missed a game and the least average number of minutes played by any of them was Knight at 28. This means we would prefer that none of the juniors pick up additional minutes.

So, in the best case scenario the freshmen and sophomores have to play the equivalent of 40% of the minutes this year. That's why we focusing on the newcomers.

Haven't had the time to do the research but when was the last time we were so dependent on newcomers?

(08-27-2018 02:38 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  We graduated 2,611 minutes of playing time with the departing senior class (and Mustafa). That is equivalent to 84 minutes/games (slightly more than two positions).

And of the big three, NONE missed a game and the least average number of minutes played by any of them was Knight at 28. This means we would prefer that none of the juniors pick up additional minutes.

So, in the best case scenario the freshmen and sophomores have to play the equivalent of 40% of the minutes this year. That's why we focusing on the newcomers.

Haven't had the time to do the research but when was the last time we were so dependent on newcomers?

This isn't exhaustive research by any means but the 2010-11 team had to replace Schneider, McCurdy, Sumner and Hess who accounted for 3,309 minutes. That team did not fare so well. On the plus side they had to replace 3,167 minutes from the 2016-17 team and that worked out.

I don't know how the playing time is going to shake out, but a) the minutes have to go somewhere, b) there's only so many more minutes the returning guys can play and c) we didn't see anything from Williams and Loewe that says they absolutely are going to get lots of minutes.

I attended a preseason Tribe Club gathering of Tribe basketball diehard followers in my area a couple of years ago and Tony spoke to the gathering. During his comments he noted that when he first took over our program he was having the Rookie of the Year every year and he said that back then he joked with his wife that he wanted to get to the point that he quit having the Rookie of the Year. His point was that most players that win the Rookie of the Year award come from programs that had to have their rookies play big time minutes and that is not a good thing.

Our program has advanced light years since those early Shaver years and the sustainable excellence of the program over the last few years is a testament of the consistent quality of our recruiting classes that has enabled us to return veteran players as the crux of our roster every year who have allowed us to maintain a winning tradition without having to rely heavily on Freshmen.

The one exception to our business model, so to speak, was last year's team which, because of graduation and totally unplanned for attrition, was forced to retrench into a tight seven man rotation of mostly sophomores and seniors with only one returning starter and represented Tony's greatest coaching job ever at W&M. And even then only one of our two freshmen hardly ever saw the floor as an 8th player in the rotation because he happened to backup the Energizer Bunny. If ever a year begged for Freshmen participation it was last year but early on the coaching staff decided that if we going to surprise the league and succeed in spite of the defections, our best chance was to do it with a tight rotation of precocious sophomores, wonderful senior guards, and a couple of journeymen upperclassmen.

The makeup of this year's roster will be unlike any that I can remember in recent memory. We only return 6 players, with only three returning starters and a 6th man seeing significant minutes in last year's rotation. As Tribeinexile points out, we must replace graduating players who played 84 minutes a game last year and those 84 minutes cannot possibly be covered by our four upperclassmen and two sophomores who hardly ever saw the floor last year.

What is so unique and exciting about this year's team is that we are going to get a chance to see what happens when a roster painfully short of experienced depth but adequately stocked with potential all CAA players is combined with what might be our deepest and most talented Freshman class in recent memory. I believe that some members of this year's freshman class would have challenged for minutes on last year's team and we desperately need them to challenge for minutes this year so that we can have a quality rotation. wouldn't it be neat if we had both a Player of the Year candidate and a Rookie of the Year candidate on this year's roster. I doubt that Tony would pass on that.

(08-27-2018 05:07 PM)WMTRIBE75 Wrote:  I attended a preseason Tribe Club gathering of Tribe basketball diehard followers in my area a couple of years ago and Tony spoke to the gathering. During his comments he noted that when he first took over our program he was having the Rookie of the Year every year and he said that back then he joked with his wife that he wanted to get to the point that he quit having the Rookie of the Year. His point was that most players that win the Rookie of the Year award come from programs that had to have their rookies play big time minutes and that is not a good thing.

W&M's had two players win Rookie of the Year under Shaver: Corey Cofield and Omar Prewitt. The 2003-04 season was a train wreck but the 2013-14 season wasn't and we won't talk about how it ended. Dixon also got decent minutes that year. The next year Malinowski averaged 16 minutes/game and Whitman 11 minutes. Knight averaged 17 minutes/game as a freshman.

Prewitt was the last freshman to get big minutes. Whether that's by design or a choice by Shaver is anyone's guess.

There have been very few openings for spots in the rotation in the last few years. Remember Cohn came in as a transfer eating up a spot. Even Knight would have found his minutes curtailed if SeaCat had stayed with the team.

One can argue that there were openings last year but I think it was hard to take Cohn off the floor (so not much time for Loewe) and Burchfield as a senior was much more ready to play than Williams as a frosh (just as Williams as a senior would have gotten all the playing time over a freshman Burchfield). I believe Shaver handled the playing time well last year.

I see no reason to write off Loewe and Williams in the competition to see who’s in the rotation. I see 7 players fighting for the final 4-5 spots in the rotation.

This year's team will be a wonder to behold, imho. I'm expecting lots of highs mixed in with some lows.

On paper, this is the kind of team that inspires comments such as "on any given night", of course that cuts both ways.

With the level of on the floor talent and on the sideline coaching talent we posses I'm expecting a three step forward, one step back season that can be the hallmark of talented, well coached teams with less experience that coalesce as the season progresses.

Pass the kool-aid and hold on to your hat. This season is setting up to be a wild ride. We have an experienced and talented 4 man core and a solid coaching staff to lead the way and great talent in 7 guys primed to make the jump to a higher level of play.

GO TRIBE!

(08-27-2018 07:20 PM)LeadBolt Wrote:  This year's team will be a wonder to behold, imho. I'm expecting lots of highs mixed in with some lows.

On paper, this is the kind of team that inspires comments such as "on any given night", of course that cuts both ways.

With the level of on the floor talent and on the sideline coaching talent we posses I'm expecting a three step forward, one step back season that can be the hallmark of talented, well coached teams with less experience that coalesce as the season progresses.

Pass the kool-aid and hold on to your hat. This season is setting up to be a wild ride. We have an experienced and talented 4 man core and a solid coaching staff to lead the way and great talent in 7 guys primed to make the jump to a higher level of play.

GO TRIBE!

If this team decides defense is important and plays average defense:



If they continue to pair a great offense with the worst defense in the conference:

(08-27-2018 09:28 PM)Rocco Wrote:  

(08-27-2018 07:20 PM)LeadBolt Wrote:  This year's team will be a wonder to behold, imho. I'm expecting lots of highs mixed in with some lows.

On paper, this is the kind of team that inspires comments such as "on any given night", of course that cuts both ways.

With the level of on the floor talent and on the sideline coaching talent we posses I'm expecting a three step forward, one step back season that can be the hallmark of talented, well coached teams with less experience that coalesce as the season progresses.

Pass the kool-aid and hold on to your hat. This season is setting up to be a wild ride. We have an experienced and talented 4 man core and a solid coaching staff to lead the way and great talent in 7 guys primed to make the jump to a higher level of play.

GO TRIBE!

If this team decides defense is important and plays average defense:



If they continue to pair a great offense with the worst defense in the conference:

Spot. On.

Tony Shaver interview on Sean Moran podcast

https://seanmohoops.com/2018/08/29/tony-...liam-mary/

(08-29-2018 01:55 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  Tony Shaver interview on Sean Moran podcast

https://seanmohoops.com/2018/08/29/tony-...liam-mary/

Solid interview. We are very fortunate to have Tony.

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(08-29-2018 09:15 PM)Tribal Wrote:  

(08-29-2018 01:55 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  Tony Shaver interview on Sean Moran podcast

https://seanmohoops.com/2018/08/29/tony-...liam-mary/

Solid interview. We are very fortunate to have Tony.

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Interesting that Shaver mentioned John Beilein as a significant influence. They are almost exact contemporaries in age but don't seem to have coached against each other. (I think Beilein left UR the year before Shaver got to W&M.) Gives on a little more insight into Shaver's current approach. That Beilein has coached in the Midwest (West Va and Michigan) also makes me wonder if there is some recruiting connection there; maybe we look at similar players in the Midwest and Michigan goes for the HM talent and we go for those right below that line.

Northeastern comes in at 69 to close out the predictions for the CAA. Looks like collegesportsmadness has the CAA going like this

1 Northeastern (69 overall)
2 Tribe (83)
3 Hofstra (93)
4 Charleston (118)

with everyone else out of top 144. Wouldn't be surprised if UNCW is in the top 144 at year end as well. Just looked and saw again how much Towson lost (but picked up a lot of JUCOs which could be interesting.

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/mens...4-previews

Notre Dame has set our game start time at noon. I hope there are plans in the works for collective viewing opportunities to mesh with the priority Richmond finale...Set up big screens in the Tribe Tavern or big screens in an open tent outside Zable. Will make for an even greater day in the 'Burg, if, they capitalize on it.

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Great expose on Loyola-Chicago's OOC scheduling challenges after this year's Final Four run, and the shared reality of all mid-majors. Really makes you appreciate this year's OOC schedule.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...-ramblers/


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St. Joe's picked #63. 4th in A10.
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16567


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Marshall picked #59. 1st in CUSA:
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16577

George Mason picked #61. 3rd in A10:
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16571

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Notre Dame comes in at #54, 11th in the ACC.

Seems a little high considering who they lost, but apparently based on four 4* freshmen and a Top 50 transfer.
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16585


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Maybe I'm not looking at this the right way, but 6 opponents between #54 and #80 (inclusive), should give us the ability to build up a pretty good resume with solid chances to record some good wins. It probably won't matter, but that is solid scheduling.