(01-14-2018 05:54 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: Not literally.
What I really mean is let's get creative with what Texas might or might not do.
Scenario 1:
What if Texas tries that Plan B that was rumored a while back?
What if they take the other TX schools along with Houston and BYU and try to join another league in unison? Maybe the PAC, maybe the SEC?
Scenario 2:
Texas goes independent and gets a 5-game deal with the ACC. In this one, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are likely going to the SEC.
Scenario 3:
Texas goes independent and gets a 5-game deal with the PAC. I know we haven't talked about this, but how likely is it that the PAC will be somewhat desperate in a few years and be willing to compromise to save the league?
Scenario 4:
Texas takes a handful of local schools and rebuilds the SWC. They could have 6-8 members and still maintain FBS status for having a conference.
Perhaps Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor along with Houston and BYU. Maybe they could even get Arizona and Arizona State to join.
A small number of conference games would allow UT to schedule a little more nationally with the flexibility they'd have. It would be akin to independence without actually taking that step.
Anything creative I'm leaving out?
Option 1: First of all Texas has no love of Houston and nobody receiving Texas needs Houston. They might take Texas Tech and T.C.U. because their athletic departments are much better funded. An they won't take B.Y.U. with them either. The PAC adamantly opposes the entry of B.Y.U. for political and secular reasons, B.Y.U. is too remote for SEC membership, and not a fit for the Big 10.
If we discuss this option it would be more like Texas decides to take T.C.U., Texas Tech, and maybe Kansas State with them and then to the PAC because the SEC won't take that grouping just to get Texas, and neither will the Big 10.
Now there's a problem for Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the PAc as well. Texas with T3 presently makes close to 50 million. Oklahoma with T3 presently makes almost 40 after expenses. The PAC with T3 only makes about 29 million per school. Where are they going to get enough of a bump off of revenue to get Texas their 50 million and Oklahoma their 40???
I'd talk about Texa-homa to the Big 10 but the Big 10 won't take Texas Tech and won't take Oklahoma State.
If this option happens there is only 1 conference that could pay Texas close to 50 million with the move, give Oklahoma a raise, and possibly take Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and that's the SEC where the LHN could more easily be converted by ESPN.
So so far I'm ruling out option 1 for anyone but the SEC.
Option 2: If the SEC lands Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Texas doesn't want the SEC, then the PAC still can't afford them, even as a partial. Texas knows the Big 10 refuses to accept partials. The SEC right now refuses to accept partials as well. But the ACC has a partial already.
So at least theoretically this option is viable. Texas has 7 games a year to schedule rivals and other Texas schools. The only problem here is where to park the other sports. The level of competition will suffer in the a smaller conference. The Big 10 and PAC both would present prohibitive travel costs, and the Big 10 doesn't really thrive with baseball and softball.
Could, or would the SEC accept their other sports if ESPN wanted us to? Just how much of the Texas market would warm up to the SEC if it had Texas baseball and softball? It would be an interesting proposition to ponder.
Option 3: I can't see Texas going independent with the PAC. I just don't see what they would find in common. I could see the ACC before the PAC for independence. They would get to keep the LHN so that might be the angle here. So it is possible.
Option 4: I don't think this option is viable at all. I don't believe the network would give this new conference anywhere near the revenue of the present Big 12.
Option 5: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa State head to the Big 10: You didn't list this but this would be viable. What makes it improbable is what would happen to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, and to a lesser extent Kansas State if this happened. But it is an option, just not one that I consider highly likely. But I consider it possible.
Option 6: Texas and Oklahoma stay and hold the Big 12 together. This is also a viable option if they truly despise all other options. Those two can hold this conference together by staying, but there is no guarantee that by doing that they will continue to be overpaid by the networks. Their revenue may take a hit if they choose this route. At best they couldn't hope to make very much more.
So those are the options I see and how I evaluate them.