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Let's mess with Texas - AllTideUp - 01-14-2018 05:54 PM
Not literally.
What I really mean is let's get creative with what Texas might or might not do.
Scenario 1:
What if Texas tries that Plan B that was rumored a while back?
What if they take the other TX schools along with Houston and BYU and try to join another league in unison? Maybe the PAC, maybe the SEC?
Scenario 2:
Texas goes independent and gets a 5-game deal with the ACC. In this one, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are likely going to the SEC.
Scenario 3:
Texas goes independent and gets a 5-game deal with the PAC. I know we haven't talked about this, but how likely is it that the PAC will be somewhat desperate in a few years and be willing to compromise to save the league?
Scenario 4:
Texas takes a handful of local schools and rebuilds the SWC. They could have 6-8 members and still maintain FBS status for having a conference.
Perhaps Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor along with Houston and BYU. Maybe they could even get Arizona and Arizona State to join.
A small number of conference games would allow UT to schedule a little more nationally with the flexibility they'd have. It would be akin to independence without actually taking that step.
Anything creative I'm leaving out?
RE: Let's mess with Texas - JRsec - 01-14-2018 06:44 PM
(01-14-2018 05:54 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: Not literally.
What I really mean is let's get creative with what Texas might or might not do.
Scenario 1:
What if Texas tries that Plan B that was rumored a while back?
What if they take the other TX schools along with Houston and BYU and try to join another league in unison? Maybe the PAC, maybe the SEC?
Scenario 2:
Texas goes independent and gets a 5-game deal with the ACC. In this one, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are likely going to the SEC.
Scenario 3:
Texas goes independent and gets a 5-game deal with the PAC. I know we haven't talked about this, but how likely is it that the PAC will be somewhat desperate in a few years and be willing to compromise to save the league?
Scenario 4:
Texas takes a handful of local schools and rebuilds the SWC. They could have 6-8 members and still maintain FBS status for having a conference.
Perhaps Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor along with Houston and BYU. Maybe they could even get Arizona and Arizona State to join.
A small number of conference games would allow UT to schedule a little more nationally with the flexibility they'd have. It would be akin to independence without actually taking that step.
Anything creative I'm leaving out?
Option 1: First of all Texas has no love of Houston and nobody receiving Texas needs Houston. They might take Texas Tech and T.C.U. because their athletic departments are much better funded. An they won't take B.Y.U. with them either. The PAC adamantly opposes the entry of B.Y.U. for political and secular reasons, B.Y.U. is too remote for SEC membership, and not a fit for the Big 10.
If we discuss this option it would be more like Texas decides to take T.C.U., Texas Tech, and maybe Kansas State with them and then to the PAC because the SEC won't take that grouping just to get Texas, and neither will the Big 10.
Now there's a problem for Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the PAc as well. Texas with T3 presently makes close to 50 million. Oklahoma with T3 presently makes almost 40 after expenses. The PAC with T3 only makes about 29 million per school. Where are they going to get enough of a bump off of revenue to get Texas their 50 million and Oklahoma their 40???
I'd talk about Texa-homa to the Big 10 but the Big 10 won't take Texas Tech and won't take Oklahoma State.
If this option happens there is only 1 conference that could pay Texas close to 50 million with the move, give Oklahoma a raise, and possibly take Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and that's the SEC where the LHN could more easily be converted by ESPN.
So so far I'm ruling out option 1 for anyone but the SEC.
Option 2: If the SEC lands Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Texas doesn't want the SEC, then the PAC still can't afford them, even as a partial. Texas knows the Big 10 refuses to accept partials. The SEC right now refuses to accept partials as well. But the ACC has a partial already.
So at least theoretically this option is viable. Texas has 7 games a year to schedule rivals and other Texas schools. The only problem here is where to park the other sports. The level of competition will suffer in the a smaller conference. The Big 10 and PAC both would present prohibitive travel costs, and the Big 10 doesn't really thrive with baseball and softball.
Could, or would the SEC accept their other sports if ESPN wanted us to? Just how much of the Texas market would warm up to the SEC if it had Texas baseball and softball? It would be an interesting proposition to ponder.
Option 3: I can't see Texas going independent with the PAC. I just don't see what they would find in common. I could see the ACC before the PAC for independence. They would get to keep the LHN so that might be the angle here. So it is possible.
Option 4: I don't think this option is viable at all. I don't believe the network would give this new conference anywhere near the revenue of the present Big 12.
Option 5: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa State head to the Big 10: You didn't list this but this would be viable. What makes it improbable is what would happen to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, and to a lesser extent Kansas State if this happened. But it is an option, just not one that I consider highly likely. But I consider it possible.
Option 6: Texas and Oklahoma stay and hold the Big 12 together. This is also a viable option if they truly despise all other options. Those two can hold this conference together by staying, but there is no guarantee that by doing that they will continue to be overpaid by the networks. Their revenue may take a hit if they choose this route. At best they couldn't hope to make very much more.
So those are the options I see and how I evaluate them.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - hawghiggs - 01-14-2018 11:29 PM
Even another option. Texas rebuilds the SWC with SoCal.
SWC
East
1,Kansas
2,New Mexico
3,Oklahoma
4,Oklahoma state
5,Texas
6,Texas Tech
West
1,Arizona
2,Arizona state
3,Colorado
4,SoCal
5,UNLV
6,Utah
RE: Let's mess with Texas - murrdcu - 01-15-2018 12:50 AM
(01-14-2018 11:29 PM)hawghiggs Wrote: Even another option. Texas rebuilds the SWC with SoCal.
SWC
East
1,Kansas
2,New Mexico
3,Oklahoma
4,Oklahoma state
5,Texas
6,Texas Tech
West
1,Arizona
2,Arizona state
3,Colorado
4,SoCal
5,UNLV
6,Utah
I’m kind of thinking that, but instead, Texas keeps a smaller SWC core but adds a couple of independents.
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
BYU
So. Cal
Five yearly conference games opens up 7 OOC games—plenty of room for historic rivals, new rivals and cup cakes.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - JRsec - 01-15-2018 01:46 AM
(01-15-2018 12:50 AM)murrdcu Wrote:(01-14-2018 11:29 PM)hawghiggs Wrote: Even another option. Texas rebuilds the SWC with SoCal.
SWC
East
1,Kansas
2,New Mexico
3,Oklahoma
4,Oklahoma state
5,Texas
6,Texas Tech
West
1,Arizona
2,Arizona state
3,Colorado
4,SoCal
5,UNLV
6,Utah
I’m kind of thinking that, but instead, Texas keeps a smaller SWC core but adds a couple of independents.
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
BYU
So. Cal
Five yearly conference games opens up 7 OOC games—plenty of room for historic rivals, new rivals and cup cakes.
NCAA Rules state you cannot have a conference with fewer than 8 schools.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - AllTideUp - 01-15-2018 05:21 AM
(01-14-2018 06:44 PM)JRsec Wrote: Option 2: If the SEC lands Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Texas doesn't want the SEC, then the PAC still can't afford them, even as a partial. Texas knows the Big 10 refuses to accept partials. The SEC right now refuses to accept partials as well. But the ACC has a partial already.
So at least theoretically this option is viable. Texas has 7 games a year to schedule rivals and other Texas schools. The only problem here is where to park the other sports. The level of competition will suffer in the a smaller conference. The Big 10 and PAC both would present prohibitive travel costs, and the Big 10 doesn't really thrive with baseball and softball.
Could, or would the SEC accept their other sports if ESPN wanted us to? Just how much of the Texas market would warm up to the SEC if it had Texas baseball and softball? It would be an interesting proposition to ponder.
And that's certainly out of the box.
I think there are a few questions here.
1. What would we get in return for compromising our rule? We've talked before about absorbing the LHN and perhaps converting it into a Spanish broadcast for the SEC. This would seem to be the perfect opportunity to leverage that.
2. If we did it then would the SEC feel the need to add another non-football member to balance the numbers out? I suppose they wouldn't have to, but for sake of argument let's say there was a basketball power in the East that would help us gain exposure in the Mid-Atlantic. I'm not sure I know who would qualify for that as I imagine we wouldn't be talking about small Catholic schools, but might it be worth it?
3. Let's say Texas decides to join in full after a few years. Assuming we've already taken Oklahoma and Oklahoma State by this time then what would the realistic options be for moving to 18 football members? I ask this question because I'm assuming any other decent property would have been snapped up by another Power conference and will have signed a GOR during the time it took for Texas to shift its thinking.
Theoretically, another TX school could be there for the taking I suppose. I just wonder what the options could be. Any decent remnants of the Big 12 could have coalesced with another league by that point.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - AllTideUp - 01-15-2018 05:35 AM
(01-14-2018 06:44 PM)JRsec Wrote: Option 6: Texas and Oklahoma stay and hold the Big 12 together. This is also a viable option if they truly despise all other options. Those two can hold this conference together by staying, but there is no guarantee that by doing that they will continue to be overpaid by the networks. Their revenue may take a hit if they choose this route. At best they couldn't hope to make very much more.
I'm spitballing a little bit, but it makes sense that the Big 12 could reform itself after the GOR is up. That is assuming OU and UT really put their weight behind it.
How about not just trudging on, but altering the makeup of the membership?
Let's say they took a handful of the current members...Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Then let's say they added a few from the G5 ranks that come from more varied and stronger markets.
Perhaps UCF, USF, and Cincinnati to bring it back to 10?
Theoretically, I could see that league being worth more than what the current Big 12 brings to the table in the next round of negotiations.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - Soobahk40050 - 01-15-2018 09:33 AM
Big 12 can still expand.
Step 1: Extend GOR to provide stability like the ACC did by extending theirs.
Options: PAC schools like Arizona/State.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - XLance - 01-15-2018 09:41 AM
(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: Big 12 can still expand.
Step 1: Extend GOR to provide stability like the ACC did by extending theirs.
Options: PAC schools like Arizona/State.
Since the Conference (PAC) owns their own network, for a school to leave the PAC they would have to be willing to leave a lot of money on the table or find a way to end that business relationship. And since all of the network units are paired it would make sense for both of the schools in the unit to leave as a pair, if they could afford the cost of the lawsuit.
It's a sticky wicket.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - BePcr07 - 01-15-2018 10:33 AM
(01-15-2018 05:35 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:(01-14-2018 06:44 PM)JRsec Wrote: Option 6: Texas and Oklahoma stay and hold the Big 12 together. This is also a viable option if they truly despise all other options. Those two can hold this conference together by staying, but there is no guarantee that by doing that they will continue to be overpaid by the networks. Their revenue may take a hit if they choose this route. At best they couldn't hope to make very much more.
I'm spitballing a little bit, but it makes sense that the Big 12 could reform itself after the GOR is up. That is assuming OU and UT really put their weight behind it.
How about not just trudging on, but altering the makeup of the membership?
Let's say they took a handful of the current members...Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Then let's say they added a few from the G5 ranks that come from more varied and stronger markets.
Perhaps UCF, USF, and Cincinnati to bring it back to 10?
Theoretically, I could see that league being worth more than what the current Big 12 brings to the table in the next round of negotiations.
I don't hate the idea of revamping the XII. However, I don't see Iowa St getting left behind by the Big 8 remnant nor do I see any benefit in leaving TCU in the dust. Both schools bring a lot to the table (TCU in overall athletics and Iowa St in academics and research.) Baylor is, unfortunately, the odd ball out for several reasons.
I know it sounds like a broken record, but adding some of the stronger AAC members after dropping Baylor (somehow) may be the way to go - Houston, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, and Cincinnati.
West: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St
East: TCU, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Central Florida, South Florida
Each school gets at least 1 annual game in Texas.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - JRsec - 01-15-2018 12:43 PM
(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: Big 12 can still expand.
Step 1: Extend GOR to provide stability like the ACC did by extending theirs.
Options: PAC schools like Arizona/State.
Yes they could, but Texas and Oklahoma don't desire to be bound any further. They voted not to extend it last year.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - colohank - 01-15-2018 02:54 PM
(01-14-2018 05:54 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: Not literally.
What I really mean is let's get creative with what Texas might or might not do.
Scenario 1:
What if Texas tries that Plan B that was rumored a while back?
What if they take the other TX schools along with Houston and BYU and try to join another league in unison? Maybe the PAC, maybe the SEC?
Scenario 2:
Texas goes independent and gets a 5-game deal with the ACC. In this one, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are likely going to the SEC.
Scenario 3:
Texas goes independent and gets a 5-game deal with the PAC. I know we haven't talked about this, but how likely is it that the PAC will be somewhat desperate in a few years and be willing to compromise to save the league?
Scenario 4:
Texas takes a handful of local schools and rebuilds the SWC. They could have 6-8 members and still maintain FBS status for having a conference.
Perhaps Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor along with Houston and BYU. Maybe they could even get Arizona and Arizona State to join.
A small number of conference games would allow UT to schedule a little more nationally with the flexibility they'd have. It would be akin to independence without actually taking that step.
Anything creative I'm leaving out?
Yes, Texas (the state) finally bows to Rick Perry's wishes/threats and secedes from the union. State schools form their own incestuous and exclusive conference, and well-drilling, huge bigly best-ever wall-building, cotton picking, and rodeo become the new money sports.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - USAFMEDIC - 01-15-2018 03:27 PM
(01-15-2018 05:35 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:(01-14-2018 06:44 PM)JRsec Wrote: Option 6: Texas and Oklahoma stay and hold the Big 12 together. This is also a viable option if they truly despise all other options. Those two can hold this conference together by staying, but there is no guarantee that by doing that they will continue to be overpaid by the networks. Their revenue may take a hit if they choose this route. At best they couldn't hope to make very much more.
I'm spitballing a little bit, but it makes sense that the Big 12 could reform itself after the GOR is up. That is assuming OU and UT really put their weight behind it.
How about not just trudging on, but altering the makeup of the membership?
Let's say they took a handful of the current members...Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Then let's say they added a few from the G5 ranks that come from more varied and stronger markets.
Perhaps UCF, USF, and Cincinnati to bring it back to 10?
Theoretically, I could see that league being worth more than what the current Big 12 brings to the table in the next round of negotiations.
The best chance for the Big XII is to expand. I agree on this. USC moving from the PAC 12? That will never happen, at least the idea they would ever sign up with other mid western schools.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - JRsec - 01-15-2018 04:54 PM
(01-15-2018 03:27 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:(01-15-2018 05:35 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:(01-14-2018 06:44 PM)JRsec Wrote: Option 6: Texas and Oklahoma stay and hold the Big 12 together. This is also a viable option if they truly despise all other options. Those two can hold this conference together by staying, but there is no guarantee that by doing that they will continue to be overpaid by the networks. Their revenue may take a hit if they choose this route. At best they couldn't hope to make very much more.
I'm spitballing a little bit, but it makes sense that the Big 12 could reform itself after the GOR is up. That is assuming OU and UT really put their weight behind it.
How about not just trudging on, but altering the makeup of the membership?
Let's say they took a handful of the current members...Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Then let's say they added a few from the G5 ranks that come from more varied and stronger markets.
Perhaps UCF, USF, and Cincinnati to bring it back to 10?
Theoretically, I could see that league being worth more than what the current Big 12 brings to the table in the next round of negotiations.
The best chance for the Big XII is to expand. I agree on this. USC moving from the PAC 12? That will never happen, at least the idea they would ever sign up with other mid western schools.
Medic who can they possibly get? The networks have said no to the G5's.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - hawghiggs - 01-15-2018 05:12 PM
(01-15-2018 12:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: Big 12 can still expand.
Step 1: Extend GOR to provide stability like the ACC did by extending theirs.
Options: PAC schools like Arizona/State.
Yes they could, but Texas and Oklahoma don't desire to be bound any further. They voted not to extend it last year.
Why would they? That's their best bargaining chip. They Big 12 will look to either expand or form sometype of network toward the end of the GOR.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - hawghiggs - 01-15-2018 05:23 PM
(01-15-2018 04:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:(01-15-2018 03:27 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:(01-15-2018 05:35 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:(01-14-2018 06:44 PM)JRsec Wrote: Option 6: Texas and Oklahoma stay and hold the Big 12 together. This is also a viable option if they truly despise all other options. Those two can hold this conference together by staying, but there is no guarantee that by doing that they will continue to be overpaid by the networks. Their revenue may take a hit if they choose this route. At best they couldn't hope to make very much more.
I'm spitballing a little bit, but it makes sense that the Big 12 could reform itself after the GOR is up. That is assuming OU and UT really put their weight behind it.
How about not just trudging on, but altering the makeup of the membership?
Let's say they took a handful of the current members...Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Then let's say they added a few from the G5 ranks that come from more varied and stronger markets.
Perhaps UCF, USF, and Cincinnati to bring it back to 10?
Theoretically, I could see that league being worth more than what the current Big 12 brings to the table in the next round of negotiations.
The best chance for the Big XII is to expand. I agree on this. USC moving from the PAC 12? That will never happen, at least the idea they would ever sign up with other mid western schools.
Medic who can they possibly get? The networks have said no to the G5's.
That's not accurate. The Networks didn't want to pay 20 million per G5 member. The Big 12 could have added 4 programs and grabbed 80 million more per season. That would have bleed the networks for damn near a half a billion or more. The Networks couldn't risk the Big 12 adding Houston, SMU, Tulsa, and Wyoming to the conference. Three of those programs won't add any television market value.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - AllTideUp - 01-15-2018 05:56 PM
(01-15-2018 05:12 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:(01-15-2018 12:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: Big 12 can still expand.
Step 1: Extend GOR to provide stability like the ACC did by extending theirs.
Options: PAC schools like Arizona/State.
Yes they could, but Texas and Oklahoma don't desire to be bound any further. They voted not to extend it last year.
Why would they? That's their best bargaining chip. They Big 12 will look to either expand or form sometype of network toward the end of the GOR.
If the Big 12 could produce a viable network then they'd already have one. The fact that they don't is not for lack of trying.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - hawghiggs - 01-15-2018 07:46 PM
(01-15-2018 05:56 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:(01-15-2018 05:12 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:(01-15-2018 12:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: Big 12 can still expand.
Step 1: Extend GOR to provide stability like the ACC did by extending theirs.
Options: PAC schools like Arizona/State.
Yes they could, but Texas and Oklahoma don't desire to be bound any further. They voted not to extend it last year.
Why would they? That's their best bargaining chip. They Big 12 will look to either expand or form sometype of network toward the end of the GOR.
If the Big 12 could produce a viable network then they'd already have one. The fact that they don't is not for lack of trying.
That's exactly what its from. They voted against having a network.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - AllTideUp - 01-15-2018 08:50 PM
(01-15-2018 07:46 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:(01-15-2018 05:56 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:(01-15-2018 05:12 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:(01-15-2018 12:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: Big 12 can still expand.
Step 1: Extend GOR to provide stability like the ACC did by extending theirs.
Options: PAC schools like Arizona/State.
Yes they could, but Texas and Oklahoma don't desire to be bound any further. They voted not to extend it last year.
Why would they? That's their best bargaining chip. They Big 12 will look to either expand or form sometype of network toward the end of the GOR.
If the Big 12 could produce a viable network then they'd already have one. The fact that they don't is not for lack of trying.
That's exactly what its from. They voted against having a network.
So as not to tie themselves down. Same reason they didn't extend the GOR...because the powers are leaving as soon as they can wrangle themselves out.
If they wanted a network then they would not wait a decade to put it into motion. Think of how much revenue they would be leaving on the table if they waited. Absolutely no reason to do that.
The Big 12 schools are like tenants getting ready to move to a new city...no point in remodeling the kitchen because they're not going to be around to live in it.
RE: Let's mess with Texas - Gamecock - 01-16-2018 02:12 PM
(01-15-2018 01:46 AM)JRsec Wrote:(01-15-2018 12:50 AM)murrdcu Wrote:(01-14-2018 11:29 PM)hawghiggs Wrote: Even another option. Texas rebuilds the SWC with SoCal.
SWC
East
1,Kansas
2,New Mexico
3,Oklahoma
4,Oklahoma state
5,Texas
6,Texas Tech
West
1,Arizona
2,Arizona state
3,Colorado
4,SoCal
5,UNLV
6,Utah
I’m kind of thinking that, but instead, Texas keeps a smaller SWC core but adds a couple of independents.
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
BYU
So. Cal
Five yearly conference games opens up 7 OOC games—plenty of room for historic rivals, new rivals and cup cakes.
NCAA Rules state you cannot have a conference with fewer than 8 schools.
Add in Rice and SMU. Or even someone like Boise St.