(10-19-2017 08:28 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote: (10-19-2017 05:47 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (10-19-2017 05:21 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote: (10-17-2017 12:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (10-17-2017 11:40 AM)orangefan Wrote: He is correct about one thing, expansion isn't dead. It never ends. It has been a constant throughout the history of college sports. Also, the consolidation of conferences is generally consistent with what we are constantly seeing in large business - basically the number of entities in the market shrinks until a few large competitors are able to exercise dominance, generate profit margins that exceed those available in a more competitive market, but without reaching monopolistic levels.
Moving forward, I would look for the stronger/more financially stable conferences to continue to pick off schools where there is an opportunity to improve their attractiveness for television. This will continue to be successful when the targeted schools feels vulnerable.
The most likely future expansion scenario in my view is the Pac 12 targeting members of the Big 12. They have done so previously. Further, both the Big 12 and Pac 12 have an insufficient population base within their footprint to match the the B1G and SEC for success with a conference TV network. Finally, the P12 lacks inventory that can be shown in early afternoon time slots in the East.
Oh alignment isn't dead. But it is probably dead for a while, at least until the playoff deal comes up for renegotiation. I expect the P5 to perhaps contract, not expand when that happens.
And its not about TV markets, but actual eyeballs going forward. Either you're Michigan and will have the eyeballs no matter what you do, or you better win so that you retain your eyeballs.
If Oklahoma State could potentially be in danger.....BYU isn't even in the picture. Try matching up a slot between Kansas State and BYU. How about TCU and BYU. How about Tech and BYU. BYU loses out every time. And then you have the Wake Forests and Vanderbilts and Kansas and Boston College and Ole Miss teams and Rutgers and WVU and Indiana teams. They might not be great football programs but they provide benefits in other sports/markets. BYU is really going to have a challenge. And lets face it, they're in a undesirable recruiting area, and have no real recent resume of football success to bolster their argument. And that's before they get to the fit issues.
I think we get it after umpteen posts......you obviously have an agenda against BYU.
Ok...what does BYU provide any P5 conference?
Football product? Its average for a P5 at best.
Help with recruiting? Nope.
Incremental income? Nope.
Market support? Very little.
Other sports? Pretty much an extra expense
BTW, you really cant assume that BYU would enjoy more support from the LDS Membership as a P5. LDS sports fans aren't a monolith and plenty of them root for Utes or other teams. That wouldn't change if BYU got into the P5.
Make the case for BYU inclusion.I'm all ears.
I do not have a dog in this fight. I couldn't care less. You seem to be obsessed with BYU. Why not give it a rest.
So, okay....you don't dispute my logic, just try to attack me for commenting. Noted.
Now back to my assertion. The original OP was concerned primarily upon the assertion that BYU was back in the mix for an upgrade. I simply pointed out that BYU does not really provide much to any of the existing P5 conferences in the areas of
1) football success - not even close to competing with TCU or even Boise
2) fan support - they have fans, but its midrange to low P5 levels at best
3) additional recruiting benefits for the existing members - the Intermountain West isn't a recruiting hotbed and few, if any, P5 teams other than Utah bother to recruit there
4) markets - Markets have been overblown, but they still matter. Salt Lake is a real market, and it has some value, but its not really a focus for any conference other than the Pac12, and they have the real prize in that market already, which is Utah
5) potential - BYU, to their credit, has maxed out its support. That being said, that 'max' is below the level that would cause a P5 conference to rationally say "we gotta have BYU"
6) other sports - For every other P5 conference but the Pac12 (which isn't taking BYU), BYU is just an expensive road trip to another time zone.
And then there's the Sunday sports, the history of prima donna behavior in their own conference and the fit issue. But even without these issues, I don't see how BYU fits the profile of a P5 moveup.
In short, BYU isn't going to any P5 unless there is a P5 that is absolutely desperate and a shadow of what the conference is at present.
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I think you might wish to attempt to stay on topic and simply not attack other posters.