I like a good book every now and then--even though I know what I'm reading is fiction. In that vein, here is the latest that MHver3 threw out there starting yesterday in a burst of tweets after being silent for much of the past year. Arranged top-down for your reading ease:

Quote: It is time to return to share with you the rumblings of the college football world.

Expansion isn't dead. It's just been in hibernation.

Big12 stands to win B1G in the next few years. But they won't be the only winners.

With the downfall of cable subscribers the next round of expansion will be expansion through contraction.

PAC12 we hardly knew you.

Dismal ratings. Horrible attendance figures. Network a disaster. Pac12 days are numbered.

B10 stands to gain from Pac12 woes but so does B12 and maybe even ACC.

There is currently one school I. The B1G that wants out. New AD has promised some that he will bring them back home

Mormons don't fear. The B12 has never stopped lines of communication. Still the most attractive option not locked up.

Contiguous states be damned when B10 absorbs a new time zone.

Would Colorado in B10 be enough to keep Husker fan base happy? Or is B12 return imminent?

I would like to again apologize to UC and BYU fans for the debacle I left over.

It was a crazy day and multiple sources were confirming. Honestly it was so much closer to happening than you know.

The real meat and potatoes concerns corn and steak.

New AD has already reached out to people at UT and OU. Looking into mending bridges.

New AD at Nebraska also has reached out to certain coach he once helped hire at another school

Within 5 years the landscape of CFB will change dramatically. Television money will start to decline

Streaming money will be the name of the game.

Compelling historical matchups will rule again.

WVU will not be long in our current home.

B12 will survive. Thrive even. But WVU will be playing regional rivals yearly again.

Things are already in motion that will change everything. The NCAA may not survive but big-time College Sports will.

Fans of Uconn, USF, UCF, BYU. Cincy, Houston fear not. You will not be left behind.

When the dust settles most mid-major programs will still have a seat at the table.

Power conferences will become power conglomerates. They Amy cannibalize each other and combine. It will be a new day

No one knows better than B10. It's why they went for the short tv deal.

Conference branding will not be the major stream of income anymore.

The true money will come from the streaming and tv rights for a new American College Athletics Association

Ok so I made up the name. But not the model.

It's closer to a reality than most know.

When it does happen it will be a true split of about 80-90 schools that will no longer operate under the NCAA umbrella.

But again. This is all a few years off. There are immediate things happening though.

It's a very real possibility that in the short term Nebraska may negotiate its way out of the B10.

And if Nebraska did come home then B12 already has options to add number 12.

the media and fans have turned against Nebraska in B10. TV money is nothing in the larger picture.

There have even been whispers that WVU could take Nebraskas spot in B10 in a settlement for both sides and keep B12 at 10 members for now.

It would mean a realignment of divisions for B10. And one of this is coming from B10 offices. Just Nebraska.

I wish I had time to share more but that's all I can do for now.

Well, one thing is certain. He is still the same freaking attention-seeking moron troll he was last time we heard from him.

The dude is clearly off his meds.

(10-17-2017 09:36 AM)f1do Wrote:  MHver3 rises like a phoenix scurries out from under the sink like a cockroach

FIFY

Look for some imminent Florida State to the PAC-12 and Arizona State to the SEC tweets.

Need to throw out something interesting. I'll take Pac-12 / Big 10 administrative merger for 200 Alex.

Look there are supporters of BYU in the Big XII. That's not news. So communication is ongoing. However, they don't have the votes to bring them in. And that is unlikely to change in the interim.

REASON ONE - BYU DOESN"T ADD MONEY FOR EXISTING MEMBERS

Even if BYU could get around the obvious issues with culture and fit, and they won't, the whole value proposition fails with BYU. The amount of money will fall going forward as people cut the cord. Does BYU help Iowa State's or West Virginia's bottom line? Nope. Do they help anyone in the conference's bottom line? Also no. Its just another mouth to feed from the TV pool.

REASON TWO - BYU DOESN'T GAIN THE EXISTING MEMBERS ANY ADDITIONAL FOOTBALL PROMINENCE

And while they have the profile, attendance wise, of a lower to mid tier P5, their record recently and versus P5 competition hasn't met the profile of a 'need to have' team. So 8-16 versus the P5 in the last 5 seasons, with only 2 wins over P5 teams that had winning records (neither were ranked at year end). Most of the 8 wins came against the absolute dregs of P5 conferences too. The on the field product doesn't make the case either. No statement wins in the last 5 years. This is the profile of a low tier P5. Low tier P5s are drains on the other members. The Big XII already has Kansas and Baylor. They don't need another gimmie. And lets get real about the impact of BYU being in the P5. Do you think BYU is going to get significant non-LDS recruits as a result of being P5? Nope. Maybe the get a recruit or two from Utah that they wouldn't have otherwise gotten. Moving BYU to the Big XII doesn't really transform the program from a competitiveness standpoint either.

BTW, any Big XII team who wants to play BYU can get a series with them.

REASON THREE - BYU DOESN'T HELP ANY TEAMS WITH RECRUITING AND THEIR MARKET ISN'T WHERE THE CONFERENCE WISHES TO GO

And then there's the market. Who in the Big XII recruits Utah/the Intermountain West? Will moving the Big XII to the west help them out? Seems to me so long as WVU is in the conference, the move is to the East, not the West.

REASON FOUR - COLORADO ISN'T GOING BACK TO THE BIG XII PERIOD, AND ISN'T LOOKING TO PLAY BYU

And then there's the whole Colorado is going to leave the Pac12 to rejoin a Big XII with BYU issue. That is a complete non-starter. The Pac12 is a terminal conference. No one leaves it. Colorado isn't going to leave Stanford, USC, Cal, UCLA and Washington so they can play Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and BYU. Just not going to happen.

Also, Nebraska is unhappy with how they've played recently, but so long as the Big XII is unstable at the top, Nebraska is going to stay in the B1G. That's also a terminal conference. No one leaves it.

REASON FIVE - EVEN IN A BIG XII GETS POACHED SCENARIO, BOISE BECOMES THE BIGGER TARGET IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST

Now there IS a scenario where BYU gets picked up by the Big XII. That scenario is one where the Big XII has lost several of its teams and is desperate to fill spots. One issue BYU will still have is that WVU still wants he conference to move East. Even if the Big XII gets poached, BYU might still get passed over. They need a scenario where Boise and BYU come over in a package deal and that will only happen if the Big XII is a shadow of its current self. If they lose prominent members, Boise becomes the real prize because they have a more recent record of statement wins. And do they want to go alone or with BYU? Basically, BYU needs the Big XII to get poached and for WVU to be one of the poached teams.

By the way, eight of the Big XII members are just sitting around, waiting for the next TV deal and the realignment that will come from that. And praying that UT and OU don't bolt. They're not going to add another potential competitor for a P5 landing spot at this time. There's a reason they haven't expanded, and probably wont for a while....do you think Kansas State or Texas Tech wants to elevate BYU right now so they can potentially beat them out in a competition for P5 landing spots in a half decade or so?

Given the current membership of the Big XII, BYU doesn't really provide more money, better recruiting, or a higher profile to the existing members of the conference. And that's even before you even address the elephant in the room, which is fit.

OK, I'll say this.

What he's saying isn't any more looney than some of the other theories and "ideas" I've read on here.

That being said.

Why would Nebraska decide to go back to the XII after waiting 7 years to get a full share of B1G money? That's like waiting in line at the DMV then when your number is next, up and leave. I just refuse to believe they'd even consider that.

While I still think WVU to the B1G would be interesting, I don't see them being part of the baseball like "trade" scenario. Once again, why would Nebraska leave B1G money, turn it over to WVU, and go back to the XII.

Do I think the PAC might be in trouble? Yes, but I don't think they'd be dumb enough to just let the whole thing collapse. They might end up selling part of their network to Fox in a similar situation to the BTN then making a run at some of the XII schools in a few years.

As far as the other schools mentioned. Sorry Pal, none of you are going to be invited to the Big 4 conferences. The best you can hope for is to stay AAC or hope that the remaining members of the XII will attempt to reform once the purge takes place.

But hey, without postings like that, we'd have nothing to banter about.

(10-17-2017 10:38 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Need to throw out something interesting. I'll take Pac-12 / Big 10 administrative merger for 200 Alex.

Didnt they had some sort of scheduling arrangement planned for a while---but it fell through? I have always thought the Big12 and Pac12 merger made a lot of sense....but it might be a SWC style merger where 2-4 teams maybe dont make it in.

The idea of a streaming College Football Association sounds a lot like back to the future to me.

(10-17-2017 10:51 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  OK, I'll say this.

What he's saying isn't any more looney than some of the other theories and "ideas" I've read on here.

That being said.

Why would Nebraska decide to go back to the XII after waiting 7 years to get a full share of B1G money? That's like waiting in line at the DMV then when your number is next, up and leave. I just refuse to believe they'd even consider that.

While I still think WVU to the B1G would be interesting, I don't see them being part of the baseball like "trade" scenario. Once again, why would Nebraska leave B1G money, turn it over to WVU, and go back to the XII.

Do I think the PAC might be in trouble? Yes, but I don't think they'd be dumb enough to just let the whole thing collapse. They might end up selling part of their network to Fox in a similar situation to the BTN then making a run at some of the XII schools in a few years.

As far as the other schools mentioned. Sorry Pal, none of you are going to be invited to the Big 4 conferences. The best you can hope for is to stay AAC or hope that the remaining members of the XII will attempt to reform once the purge takes place.

But hey, without postings like that, we'd have nothing to banter about.

Very good post.

However, while WVU to the B1G makes sense, the B1G isn't operating under the same logic stream. They took Rutgers and Maryland for must take cable contracts. WVU doesn't add anything from a market perspective. They also don't fit the academic profile of the B1G (neither does Nebraska). All WVU can offer the B1G is football product. But they'd need to be consistently winning the Big XII for that to be in the cards, and they haven't been. WVU needs to be Top 5 for a couple of years in a row good to get a real look from the B1G.

The Pac12 is really, really stable. Even if there's a TV deal issue, they'll stay together. And that includes Colorado and Utah. Part of the reason is that the only potential bolting place is the Big XII.

He is correct about one thing, expansion isn't dead. It never ends. It has been a constant throughout the history of college sports. Also, the consolidation of conferences is generally consistent with what we are constantly seeing in large business - basically the number of entities in the market shrinks until a few large competitors are able to exercise dominance, generate profit margins that exceed those available in a more competitive market, but without reaching monopolistic levels.

Moving forward, I would look for the stronger/more financially stable conferences to continue to pick off schools where there is an opportunity to improve their attractiveness for television. This will continue to be successful when the targeted schools feels vulnerable.

The most likely future expansion scenario in my view is the Pac 12 targeting members of the Big 12. They have done so previously. Further, both the Big 12 and Pac 12 have an insufficient population base within their footprint to match the the B1G and SEC for success with a conference TV network. Finally, the P12 lacks inventory that can be shown in early afternoon time slots in the East.

Is this the one with the BIg Ten Man? BTM? They all start running together. It was entertaining for a bit...now just eye roll worthy

(10-17-2017 11:54 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  Is this the one with the BIg Ten Man? BTM? They all start running together. It was entertaining for a bit...now just eye roll worthy

No, this is the West Virginia guy who talks to himself. Big Ten Man I think is a Minnesota guy who constantly trolls the "Dude of West Virginia" who takes himself way too seriously.

(10-17-2017 11:54 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  Is this the one with the BIg Ten Man? BTM? They all start running together. It was entertaining for a bit...now just eye roll worthy

"BTM" is the source for a different twitter guy (Greg Flugaur). I think MHver3 probably had some good sources in the old Big East. He was pretty accruate about what was going on in the Big East back in 2012 and 2013. He hasnt been nearly as on point since (as in not at all on point).

(10-17-2017 11:40 AM)orangefan Wrote:  He is correct about one thing, expansion isn't dead. It never ends. It has been a constant throughout the history of college sports. Also, the consolidation of conferences is generally consistent with what we are constantly seeing in large business - basically the number of entities in the market shrinks until a few large competitors are able to exercise dominance, generate profit margins that exceed those available in a more competitive market, but without reaching monopolistic levels.

Moving forward, I would look for the stronger/more financially stable conferences to continue to pick off schools where there is an opportunity to improve their attractiveness for television. This will continue to be successful when the targeted schools feels vulnerable.

The most likely future expansion scenario in my view is the Pac 12 targeting members of the Big 12. They have done so previously. Further, both the Big 12 and Pac 12 have an insufficient population base within their footprint to match the the B1G and SEC for success with a conference TV network. Finally, the P12 lacks inventory that can be shown in early afternoon time slots in the East.

Oh alignment isn't dead. But it is probably dead for a while, at least until the playoff deal comes up for renegotiation. I expect the P5 to perhaps contract, not expand when that happens.

And its not about TV markets, but actual eyeballs going forward. Either you're Michigan and will have the eyeballs no matter what you do, or you better win so that you retain your eyeballs.

If Oklahoma State could potentially be in danger.....BYU isn't even in the picture. Try matching up a slot between Kansas State and BYU. How about TCU and BYU. How about Tech and BYU. BYU loses out every time. And then you have the Wake Forests and Vanderbilts and Kansas and Boston College and Ole Miss teams and Rutgers and WVU and Indiana teams. They might not be great football programs but they provide benefits in other sports/markets. BYU is really going to have a challenge. And lets face it, they're in a undesirable recruiting area, and have no real recent resume of football success to bolster their argument. And that's before they get to the fit issues.

Quote: Power conferences will become power conglomerates. They Amy cannibalize each other and combine. It will be a new day

Who's Amy?

(10-17-2017 09:49 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Well, one thing is certain. He is still the same freaking attention-seeking moron troll he was last time we heard from him.

It's actually a compilation of two or three message boards where fantasy realignment thread comments were directly lifted by this joker so he could concoct a story to prey upon the fears of B.Y.U. fans, and stir the pot on Big 12 re-acquisition fantasies.

It's been his M.O. consistently.

In 2010 he lifted from Leather Helmet Blog, this site, and from bloggers like Frank the Tank, twisted it into his own special pretzel and sold it to all of the fish. When he needed another source it was either the Dude, or Tuxedo Yoda. Fluguar isn't much different.

The only realignment news out there right now is being made by the FBI. Future plans, if there are any, are on hold now as people wait to see how the revenue models might change as a result of the current investigations of shoe payola. Shame on me! I thought Bobby Bowden created the shoe angle. I guess giving out free shoes is different from pushing shoes for cash!

(10-17-2017 11:54 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  Is this the one with the BIg Ten Man? BTM? They all start running together. It was entertaining for a bit...now just eye roll worthy

Big Ten Man is likely a drinking buddy of Greg Fluguar or worse an invention of Fluguars. I always find it interesting that BTM thinks and talks more like a message board poster than an University President or someone who works within the circle of a president. I think in poker you call that a tell.

Reads like a fortune cookie...written in 2009.

Nobody is leaving the Big Ten.

Fun fact: Whatever THE DUDE is smoking is illegal in every country.