(06-14-2016 07:19 AM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote: Now that the Pittsburgh Penguins have claimed their fourth Stanley Cup in franchise history (hallowed be thy name), expansion now moves to the top of the NHL's agenda.
Here are 10 bold expansion predictions from reading a lot of stories and the tea leaves:
1.) The NHL will announce in June that it is expanding for the 2017–18 season. That means that we are about to see a flurry of trades league-wide as teams try to prepare for the expansion draft and protect themselves from losing valuable assets for nothing.
2.) The NHL will also announce in June it is going to expand to Las Vegas but it will not expand to any other city...yet.
3.) When Seattle gets its act together regarding a new arena in that city, they will get the NHL's 32nd team. I think they're probably two years away on that front.
It's going to be feast or famine for Seattle. The Seattle arena is really contingent on the market getting an NBA team, and in that scenario, the NHL would piggy-back off of it. I don't believe that solely an NHL team would be enough to get the financing in place for a Seattle arena, so they need NBA expansion or relocation for that market to work.
Quote:4.) The Las Vegas expansion team will be extremely successful. This is nothing like the Arizona situation – which is mostly an issue of arena location. This arena is right on the Vegas strip and it will be extremely popular for home and visiting fans.
That Las Vegas team is going to have a hell of a home ice advantage, I can tell you that much.
I'm a bit skeptical. To me, Vegas is a perfect long-term NBA market but would be a subpar NHL market in the long run once the novelty of simply having a pro sports team there wears off. The NHL doesn't have the inherent social scene that NBA games have, especially in markets with a high celebrity/high net worth quotient. (Just look at the celebs and high net worth spenders that still show up for horrible Lakers and Knicks teams - that's a perfect fit for Vegas. It's a casino comp goldmine.) The NHL also doesn't have the tourist draw of the NFL or even power conference college football. I think you'll see the teams with large fan bases and a high number of transplants living in the Vegas market (e.g. Chicago Blackhawks) draw well like they do in most Sun Belt markets, but people shouldn't reasonably expect more than that.
Now, I'm also someone that thinks that just because Sun Belt markets aren't as big of NHL markets as Northern markets doesn't mean that the NHL can avoid them long-term. As poorly run as the Coyotes have been, the league can't ignore a market the size of Phoenix for the long-term. I'd say the same about the past failures in Atlanta and the current problems in South Florida - ultimately, the NHL needs to find ways to work in those markets to grow as a league. Houston is also a glaring hole with its size and rapid growth. As long as expectations are reasonable for those types of markets (e.g. don't expect Original Six-level fandom), then they can work.
Also, I realize that Las Vegas has a brand new state-of-the-art stadium in place, so the biggest impediment for the league expanding there is completely off the table. As a result, I have no doubt that the NHL will expand there very soon (and I think the NFL and NBA will follow).
Quote:5.) Quebec City will eventually get a team but it won't be for a few years and it will be through relocation, not expansion. My bet is that it will either be Florida or Carolina but it won't happen until the Canadian dollar recovers and each of the existing markets has been fully exhausted.
Seems plausible. My guess is that Carolina is more at risk even though the Panthers probably have a worse financial situation. Pro sports leagues have shown to do *everything* they can to salvage the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale market. Even if there are zero fans in the stands or makes little to no economic sense for a franchise itself, that particular market is looked at as the gateway point for the broader Latin American market if only for TV purposes. That's why MLB has bent over backwards to find every way to make the Marlins work and MLS keeps giving the David Beckham-led Miami investor group years and years of opportunity to figure out a stadium plan even though other markets are standing by ready to put shovels in the ground immediately.
Quote:6.) Depending on who moves, that could spark further realignment.
True. As a fan of the Blackhawks that was a bit irked when the Red Wings pushed so heavily to get moved to the East, it would make geographic sense to move Chicago over if 2 western teams get added and get all of the Original Six teams back together. On the other hand, the NHL already is way too top heavy with basically all of their largest brands outside of the Blackhawks in the East, so that might spur the NHL to move someone like the Predators over, instead. (In just a quick look at the NBC NHL schedules over the past 2 years, there has been no national coast-to-coast OTA game that has featured a Western Conference team besides the Blackhawks unless they were playing the Blackhawks or another Original Six team.)
Quote:7.) The Oakland Raiders are moving to Las Vegas and that will happen sooner rather than later and the announcement of the move is going to come quicker than some seem to realize.
8.) The NFL will be fabulously successful in Las Vegas. Visiting fans will regularly flow into the city to take advantage of all of the things that it has the offer. Raiders fans from California will also make it over, and tourists from elsewhere will attend those games as well - and that's before even mention the people that already live and/or work in Las Vegas.
Honestly, this is the best possible outcome, IMO.
I agree with this here. When I heard that the Raiders were contemplating moving to Las Vegas and it appeared that the financing for a new stadium could realistically be put into place, it seems like a no-brainer unless the Chargers don't end up moving to LA. The NFL would work great in Vegas in general, and if there is one franchise that could be an easy "plug and play" team for that market, it would be the Raiders. The only easier assimilating move would be if the Lakers were to move to Las Vegas, too (which obviously won't be happening).
Quote:9.) The Chargers are going to build a brand new stadium in San Diego.
10.) Ten years from now, the Los Angeles Rams will still be the only team in the nation's second-largest media market.
I'll have to disagree there. A new stadium is San Diego is just as dead as a new stadium in Oakland. The political pushback against public financing for stadiums is at a completely different level in California - people in other markets might complain about public financing, but they have caved virtually every time in the past 20 years (ever since the Browns left Cleveland). That isn't the case in the California markets - they actually *will* let their teams walk. There is absolutely no reason for the Chargers to stay in San Diego if they can move 90 miles north to LA and add at least $1 billion (if not more) to their franchise value simply by location, especially when the LA stadium is going to be in place in a way that isn't reasonably foreseeable in San Diego. The LA stadium is getting built because it's one of the few markets where a larger dose of private financing can be demanded - that's just not going to be acceptable for NFL owners in a market like San Diego. (I'm not saying that it's the right thing to do, but it's just the reality since there are still a lot more markets that want NFL and other pro sports teams than don't want them, so it's always a buyer's market for pro franchises in picking media markets unless you're dealing with a truly special market like LA.)