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One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #1
One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
That word is Geography.

My thoughts on how I see the MW becoming stronger than today all circles back to the geography of the conference.
I think we will see the progression, not right away but over the next few years.

Here is why I think this could be possible.
First: Protection from expansion by the PAC-12 and Big 12. This is really big in my opinion because there is really no school in the MW for the PAC to grab that add anymore value and the Big 12 will bridge to West Virgina and the AAC is the one that will add value to the Big 12 (Cincy and Memphis for example).

Second: The MW doesn't have any other FBS conference other than the PAC-12 to recruit against. All other G5 conferences except the MAC has mulitiple P5 and G5 conferences to recruit against. One thing I've seen from last year is the increase in transfers from PAC/P5 conferences to MW schools. While the transfers may be athletes that didn't quite pan out, they are more athletic than the normal 2 star recruits most MW schools have and can add more depth than any other G5 conference.

Third: 8 of 12 schools are land grant and/or are either first or second for state funding and fan attention. Contrast that with many of the schools in the other G5 conferences who are either 4th or below in the pecking order.

Fourth: Population increases in the Mountain and Pacific states will provide a better TV contract as more people are migrating to Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, Utah, New Mexico or natural increases in population. With basically another 5 years left on the existing TV contract, we shall see how this pans out for the next TV contract. Especially as the MW is the only other FBS conference in the Western US.

If the AAC gets raided, then this really accelerates that progression.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2014 11:28 AM by MWC Tex.)
10-30-2014 01:49 PM
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Galleyrat Offline
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Post: #2
RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
[quote='MWC Tex' pid='11308754' dateline='1414694951']
That word is Geography.

My thoughts on how I see the MW becoming stronger than today all circles back to the geography of the conference.
I think we will see the progression, not right away but over the next few years.

Here is why I think this could be possible.
First: Protection from expansion by the PAC-12 and Big 12. This is really big in my opinion because there is really no school in the MW for the PAC to grab that add anymore value and the Big 12 will bridge to West Virgina and the AAC are the one that will add value to the Big 12 (Cincy and Memphis for example).

Second: The MW doesn't have any other FBS conference other than the PAC to recruit against. All other G5 conferences except the MAC has mulitiple P5 and G5 conferences to recruit against. One thing I've seen from last year is the increase in transfers from PAC/P5 conferences to MW schools. While the transfers may be athletes that didn't quite pan out, they are more athletic that the normal 2 star recruits most MW schools have and can add more depth than any other G5 conference.

Third: 8 of 12 schools are land grant and/or are either first or second for state funding and fan attention. Contrast that with many of the schools in the other G5 conferences who are either 4th or below in the pecking order.

Fourth: Population increases in the Mountain and Pacific states will provide a better TV contract as more people are migrating to Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, Utah, New Mexico or natural increases in population. With basically another 5 years left on the existing TV contract, we shall see how this pans out for the next TV contract. Especially as the MW is the only other FBS conference in the Western US.

If the AAC gets raided, then this really accelerates that progression.
[/quote

These are good points. I have thought some of the same things. You have to wonder where all this will end.
10-31-2014 06:06 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #3
RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
Forgot to mention that Air Force could be added to the third point, being a service academy and gets Federal fund to make 9 of 12 members in that category, but the point was to show the state funding side of things which is a how the vast majority schools get funding.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2014 02:28 PM by MWC Tex.)
11-03-2014 02:28 PM
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YNot Offline
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
The MWC will compete for G5 dominance. Colorado St.'s re-emergence this year couldn't have come at a better time. They and Boise will compete with Marshall (even if the Herd remains undefeated) for the G5 Access Bowl bid. The good seasons by Utah St. and Nevada could tip the scale in the MWC's favor. And, G5 dominance will largely be measured by that G5 berth.

The Rams have the student body, alumni base, and market that could really make some noise if success can be sustained. That will be a big boost for the MWC. Colorado is one of the MWC's better markets; and, the more teams vying for the conference championship, the better.

But the reality of the geography is that most of the Mountain West states have fairly small populations - even if growing. Wyoming is dead last, even behind the District of Columbia. Actually, only California (38 million) and Colorado (5 million) hold much value from TV markets and recruiting perspectives. #33 Utah and #35 Nevada are both under 3 million. #36 New Mexico has about 2 million. #39 Idaho and #40 Hawaii are at about 1.5 million. The states are growing, but it will be another 20 years before any real difference is felt.

Also, you can't ignore the American conference's tremendous upside because of its great markets - including #4 Philadelphia, #5 Dallas, #10 Houston, #13 Tampa, and #18 Orlando. That will help tremendously with recruiting and could be a huge financial advantage if the AAC raises its game. The American has a 6-team race for its championship right now. That sort of parity will help the entire league.

I still think that the MWC is susceptible to western expansion raids by the Big 12 and the American.

Regarding recruiting, the geography advantages are overstated. From 2012 to 2014, outside of the PAC 12 and the MWC (and BYU), the following schools grabbed recruits from:

California: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Ohio St., LSU, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Yale, Iowa St., Duke, Wisconsin, Columbia, Houston, Oklahoma St., Indiana, Michigan, Penn, Florida St., Miami, Harvard, Penn St., Idaho, New Mexico St.

Colorado: Michigan, Auburn, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ohio St., Nebraska, Wake Forest, Duke, Kansas St., Alabama, Miami (OH), Navy, New Mexico St.

Hawaii: Clemson, Arkansas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Pitt, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Mexico St.

Nevada: Duke, Navy, Dartmouth, Notre Dame, UTEP, Nebraska, Army, Kent St.

Utah: Alabama, Cornell, Nebraska, Michigan, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Idaho

And, these weren't all 4 and 5 star recruits. There were plenty of 2 and 3 star recruits in the mix.
11-04-2014 03:14 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
(11-04-2014 03:14 PM)YNot Wrote:  The MWC will compete for G5 dominance. Colorado St.'s re-emergence this year couldn't have come at a better time. They and Boise will compete with Marshall (even if the Herd remains undefeated) for the G5 Access Bowl bid. The good seasons by Utah St. and Nevada could tip the scale in the MWC's favor. And, G5 dominance will largely be measured by that G5 berth.

The Rams have the student body, alumni base, and market that could really make some noise if success can be sustained. That will be a big boost for the MWC. Colorado is one of the MWC's better markets; and, the more teams vying for the conference championship, the better.

But the reality of the geography is that most of the Mountain West states have fairly small populations - even if growing. Wyoming is dead last, even behind the District of Columbia. Actually, only California (38 million) and Colorado (5 million) hold much value from TV markets and recruiting perspectives. #33 Utah and #35 Nevada are both under 3 million. #36 New Mexico has about 2 million. #39 Idaho and #40 Hawaii are at about 1.5 million. The states are growing, but it will be another 20 years before any real difference is felt.

Also, you can't ignore the American conference's tremendous upside because of its great markets - including #4 Philadelphia, #5 Dallas, #10 Houston, #13 Tampa, and #18 Orlando. That will help tremendously with recruiting and could be a huge financial advantage if the AAC raises its game. The American has a 6-team race for its championship right now. That sort of parity will help the entire league.

I still think that the MWC is susceptible to western expansion raids by the Big 12 and the American.

Regarding recruiting, the geography advantages are overstated. From 2012 to 2014, outside of the PAC 12 and the MWC (and BYU), the following schools grabbed recruits from:

California: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Ohio St., LSU, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Yale, Iowa St., Duke, Wisconsin, Columbia, Houston, Oklahoma St., Indiana, Michigan, Penn, Florida St., Miami, Harvard, Penn St., Idaho, New Mexico St.

Colorado: Michigan, Auburn, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ohio St., Nebraska, Wake Forest, Duke, Kansas St., Alabama, Miami (OH), Navy, New Mexico St.

Hawaii: Clemson, Arkansas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Pitt, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Mexico St.

Nevada: Duke, Navy, Dartmouth, Notre Dame, UTEP, Nebraska, Army, Kent St.

Utah: Alabama, Cornell, Nebraska, Michigan, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Idaho

And, these weren't all 4 and 5 star recruits. There were plenty of 2 and 3 star recruits in the mix.

Except:
1. The AAC markets are dominated by other teams. If there was such an upside then the AAC would have received a much, much better TV contract. Hence, you have to dominate the market to make it profitable to the conference.
2. Nobody is going to leave the MW for the AAC.
3. Parity isn't good.
4. While there are recruits from all over, there is a majority that want to be closer to home which is why geography does play a role in recruiting. Even transfers from PAC schools would like to play in the same region which is why it will help the MW over all other G5 conferences.
5. The population increase will be less than 20 years to see the impact, which is why I stated that in 6 more years we will see how the TV contract will be impacted by those population increases in the mountain states. And being that the next contract is likely to be 6 or so years long, showing the population trends can help with the next TV contract.
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2014 01:11 PM by MWC Tex.)
11-12-2014 01:08 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
Well, having won the Fiesta bowl is a good start. We'll see if the momentum carries into next year. It does give the MW a better eye test now given that BSU lost 2 games during the regular season with 1 being a conference game and still beat the #10 Arizona.
01-01-2015 04:58 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
Final AP Poll.

BSU #16
Air Force #29
Utah St. #32
Colorado St. #38

Good showing by the MW in the final AP Poll. No other CUSA or AAC team received any votes. Sets up the MW next year fairly well to start as the top G5 conference, but we'll see how we follow through with some new personnel and new players on several teams.
01-13-2015 09:23 AM
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
(01-13-2015 09:23 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Final AP Poll.

BSU #16
Air Force #29
Utah St. #32
Colorado St. #38

Good showing by the MW in the final AP Poll. No other CUSA or AAC team received any votes. Sets up the MW next year fairly well to start as the top G5 conference, but we'll see how we follow through with some new personnel and new players on several teams.

#23 Marshall, #25 Memphis.
01-31-2015 11:36 AM
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MWC Tex Offline
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
(01-31-2015 11:36 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(01-13-2015 09:23 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Final AP Poll.

BSU #16
Air Force #29
Utah St. #32
Colorado St. #38

Good showing by the MW in the final AP Poll. No other CUSA or AAC team received any votes. Sets up the MW next year fairly well to start as the top G5 conference, but we'll see how we follow through with some new personnel and new players on several teams.

#23 Marshall, #25 Memphis.

I should have clarified, it was meant to reflect the other teams in the G5 conferences that weren't already ranked in the top 25. Besides having Marshall and Memphis rank, no other G5 teams received additional votes.
02-01-2015 12:04 PM
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DowdyPirate Offline
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
(02-01-2015 12:04 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  
(01-31-2015 11:36 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(01-13-2015 09:23 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Final AP Poll.

BSU #16
Air Force #29
Utah St. #32
Colorado St. #38

Good showing by the MW in the final AP Poll. No other CUSA or AAC team received any votes. Sets up the MW next year fairly well to start as the top G5 conference, but we'll see how we follow through with some new personnel and new players on several teams.

#23 Marshall, #25 Memphis.

I should have clarified, it was meant to reflect the other teams in the G5 conferences that weren't already ranked in the top 25. Besides having Marshall and Memphis rank, no other G5 teams received additional votes.
NIU
02-01-2015 04:31 PM
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Jimmy Offline
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
I'm skeptical about Colorado State's ability to keep that momentum going, though they hired another hot shot offensive guy in Mike Bobo. Garrett Grayson and Dee Hart are both gone off that offense. That is a huge loss for the Rams. Add in the bulk of the offensive line aging out from eligibility and it could be a rough couple of years for Bobo in Fort Collins.
02-10-2015 11:40 AM
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MWC Tex Offline
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
(10-30-2014 01:49 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  That word is Geography.

My thoughts on how I see the MW becoming stronger than today all circles back to the geography of the conference.
I think we will see the progression, not right away but over the next few years.

Here is why I think this could be possible.
First: Protection from expansion by the PAC-12 and Big 12. This is really big in my opinion because there is really no school in the MW for the PAC to grab that add anymore value and the Big 12 will bridge to West Virgina and the AAC is the one that will add value to the Big 12 (Cincy and Memphis for example).

Second: The MW doesn't have any other FBS conference other than the PAC-12 to recruit against. All other G5 conferences except the MAC has mulitiple P5 and G5 conferences to recruit against. One thing I've seen from last year is the increase in transfers from PAC/P5 conferences to MW schools. While the transfers may be athletes that didn't quite pan out, they are more athletic than the normal 2 star recruits most MW schools have and can add more depth than any other G5 conference.

Third: 8 of 12 schools are land grant and/or are either first or second for state funding and fan attention. Contrast that with many of the schools in the other G5 conferences who are either 4th or below in the pecking order.

Fourth: Population increases in the Mountain and Pacific states will provide a better TV contract as more people are migrating to Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, Utah, New Mexico or natural increases in population. With basically another 5 years left on the existing TV contract, we shall see how this pans out for the next TV contract. Especially as the MW is the only other FBS conference in the Western US.

If the AAC gets raided, then this really accelerates that progression.

...bump....

Revisting 2 years later.
The Big 12 decided not to expand and so the AAC is spared as well as the MW.
11-03-2016 10:16 AM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #13
One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
If the b12 breaks up, it will be good our conferences
01-27-2017 11:55 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
(01-27-2017 11:55 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  If the b12 breaks up, it will be good our conferences

I agree. Although it would be interesting where some of the leftovers choose to go.
01-28-2017 12:36 PM
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