RE: One word why the Mountain West will be the dominant G5 conference
The MWC will compete for G5 dominance. Colorado St.'s re-emergence this year couldn't have come at a better time. They and Boise will compete with Marshall (even if the Herd remains undefeated) for the G5 Access Bowl bid. The good seasons by Utah St. and Nevada could tip the scale in the MWC's favor. And, G5 dominance will largely be measured by that G5 berth.
The Rams have the student body, alumni base, and market that could really make some noise if success can be sustained. That will be a big boost for the MWC. Colorado is one of the MWC's better markets; and, the more teams vying for the conference championship, the better.
But the reality of the geography is that most of the Mountain West states have fairly small populations - even if growing. Wyoming is dead last, even behind the District of Columbia. Actually, only California (38 million) and Colorado (5 million) hold much value from TV markets and recruiting perspectives. #33 Utah and #35 Nevada are both under 3 million. #36 New Mexico has about 2 million. #39 Idaho and #40 Hawaii are at about 1.5 million. The states are growing, but it will be another 20 years before any real difference is felt.
Also, you can't ignore the American conference's tremendous upside because of its great markets - including #4 Philadelphia, #5 Dallas, #10 Houston, #13 Tampa, and #18 Orlando. That will help tremendously with recruiting and could be a huge financial advantage if the AAC raises its game. The American has a 6-team race for its championship right now. That sort of parity will help the entire league.
I still think that the MWC is susceptible to western expansion raids by the Big 12 and the American.
Regarding recruiting, the geography advantages are overstated. From 2012 to 2014, outside of the PAC 12 and the MWC (and BYU), the following schools grabbed recruits from:
California: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Ohio St., LSU, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Yale, Iowa St., Duke, Wisconsin, Columbia, Houston, Oklahoma St., Indiana, Michigan, Penn, Florida St., Miami, Harvard, Penn St., Idaho, New Mexico St.
Colorado: Michigan, Auburn, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ohio St., Nebraska, Wake Forest, Duke, Kansas St., Alabama, Miami (OH), Navy, New Mexico St.
Hawaii: Clemson, Arkansas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Pitt, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Mexico St.
Nevada: Duke, Navy, Dartmouth, Notre Dame, UTEP, Nebraska, Army, Kent St.
Utah: Alabama, Cornell, Nebraska, Michigan, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Idaho
And, these weren't all 4 and 5 star recruits. There were plenty of 2 and 3 star recruits in the mix.
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