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Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #1
Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
even under the best case scenario:

-They don't declare war on Russia

-The United States loses its carriers, dry docks, & oil reserves at Pearl Harbor

-The US only declares war on only Japan and Germany-US do not go to war in late 1941

could they have pulled off the win with all of this????
06-04-2014 01:34 PM
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Bull_In_Exile Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 01:34 PM)john01992 Wrote:  even under the best case scenario:

-They don't declare war on Russia

-The United States loses its carriers, dry docks, & oil reserves at Pearl Harbor

-The US only declares war on only Japan and Germany-US do not go to war in late 1941

could they have pulled off the win with all of this????

Yes, easily.... The Lynchpin is Russia but a US without Carriers could not have stopped the Japanese from pushing out.

But The German losses in Russia, if sitting in Western Europe would have crushed the allied invasion.
06-04-2014 02:02 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 01:34 PM)john01992 Wrote:  even under the best case scenario:

-They don't declare war on Russia

This is the major factor. Do this and Germany can take all of Europe.

Quote:-The United States loses its carriers, dry docks, & oil reserves at Pearl Harbor

The loss of Pearl only give Japan a 3-4 month window to assert local control of the Western Pacific. They can't hold Pearl Harbor, nor can they reach the West Coast. Eventually the US comes back and retakes everything it lost.

Quote:
-The US only declares war on only Japan and Germany-US do not go to war in late 1941

If this occurs without the two front consideration then the Western Allies have no chance of expelling Germany from France and Spain.

Quote:could they have pulled off the win with all of this????

IMO, Germany might have locked up Western Europe, but Japan had no chance of ever succeeding in their goals.
(This post was last modified: 06-04-2014 02:20 PM by vandiver49.)
06-04-2014 02:02 PM
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CameramanJ Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
I have to figure that the Battle of the Atlantic would have to factor in for a theoretical Axis win.The U-boats were kneecapping Atlantic supply routes before the Allies cracked the Enigma cipher and made some advances in marine radar. If neither of those things had happened, piling on top of the other theoretical points listed, maybe.
06-04-2014 02:02 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:02 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 01:34 PM)john01992 Wrote:  even under the best case scenario:

-They don't declare war on Russia

This is the major factor. Do this and Germany can take all of Europe.

Quote:-The United States loses its carriers, dry docks, & oil reserves at Pearl Harbor

The loss of Pearl only give Japan a 3-4 month window to assert local control of the Western Pacific. They can hold Pearl Harbor, nor can they reach the West Coast. Eventually the US comes back and retakes everything it lost.

Quote:
-The US only declares war on only Japan and Germany-US do not go to war in late 1941

If this occurs without the two front consideration then the Western Allies have no chance of expelling Germany from France and Spain.

Quote:could they have pulled off the win with all of this????

IMO, Germany might have locked up Western Europe, but Japan had no chance of ever succeeding in their goals.

all fantastic points. Germany could of cleaned up in Europe.

IMO if the US didn't go to war with germany in 41/early 42, if german troops landed on english beaches the US would of realized they had to get involved in the european theater. it is most likely that in this scenario america's involvement in europe is only delayed not prevented.
06-04-2014 02:07 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:02 PM)CameramanJ Wrote:  I have to figure that the Battle of the Atlantic would have to factor in for a theoretical Axis win.The U-boats were kneecapping Atlantic supply routes before the Allies cracked the Enigma cipher and made some advances in marine radar. If neither of those things had happened, piling on top of the other theoretical points listed, maybe.

OMG yes. That might just have been one of the most decisive events of the war.
06-04-2014 02:08 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:02 PM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 01:34 PM)john01992 Wrote:  even under the best case scenario:

-They don't declare war on Russia

-The United States loses its carriers, dry docks, & oil reserves at Pearl Harbor

-The US only declares war on only Japan and Germany-US do not go to war in late 1941

could they have pulled off the win with all of this????

Yes, easily.... The Lynchpin is Russia but a US without Carriers could not have stopped the Japanese from pushing out.

But The German losses in Russia, if sitting in Western Europe would have crushed the allied invasion.

The US without carriers would of essentially evened the carrier count between the US & Japan for the first few years of the war. At that point it would of been interesting to see how the battleships get used.

if you want to add another change ==> japan never builds those two mega warships and uses those resources to build 3-4 more carriers.
06-04-2014 02:11 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
The biggest factor in the Axis losing the war was Hitler declaring war on Russia. Had they not tried to fight a war on 2 fronts, they would have conquered all of Europe. The Russian winter decimated their army, and was the beginning of the end for Germany.
06-04-2014 02:14 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The biggest factor in the Axis losing the war was Hitler declaring war on Russia. Had they not tried to fight a war on 2 fronts, they would have conquered all of Europe. The Russian winter decimated their army, and was the beginning of the end for Germany.

on the flip side russia would of spent those years building up their power than go all out on a depleted germany within a decade.
06-04-2014 02:16 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:07 PM)john01992 Wrote:  all fantastic points. Germany could of cleaned up in Europe.

IMO if the US didn't go to war with germany in 41/early 42, if german troops landed on english beaches the US would of realized they had to get involved in the european theater. it is most likely that in this scenario america's involvement in europe is only delayed not prevented.

In my Rommel led Germany, all the Reich is trying to do is keep Britain from getting back into Europe. There's no need to take the UK, just prevent them from getting enough relief from the US via U-boat attacks so that Churchill is more focused on keeping the lights on and people fed instead of dreaming about D-Day.
06-04-2014 02:18 PM
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CameramanJ Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:16 PM)john01992 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The biggest factor in the Axis losing the war was Hitler declaring war on Russia. Had they not tried to fight a war on 2 fronts, they would have conquered all of Europe. The Russian winter decimated their army, and was the beginning of the end for Germany.

on the flip side russia would of spent those years building up their power than go all out on a depleted germany within a decade.

Perhaps less. Hitler was ambitious. Stalin was crazy. One thing is for sure: the Baltic would be just craters and tank husks by the end.
06-04-2014 02:20 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:18 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:07 PM)john01992 Wrote:  all fantastic points. Germany could of cleaned up in Europe.

IMO if the US didn't go to war with germany in 41/early 42, if german troops landed on english beaches the US would of realized they had to get involved in the european theater. it is most likely that in this scenario america's involvement in europe is only delayed not prevented.

In my Rommel led Germany, all the Reich is trying to do is keep Britain from getting back into Europe. There's no need to take the UK, just prevent them from getting enough relief from the US via U-boat attacks so that Churchill is more focused on keeping the lights on and people fed instead of dreaming about D-Day.

that is a good point. It is one thing to take land, the real challenge is holding onto it.

had hitler taken this time to solidify france while pounding GB into dusk but not invading them that would of been a smart play. But somewhere he has to be thinking about the US ultimately getting involved.
06-04-2014 02:26 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:02 PM)CameramanJ Wrote:  I have to figure that the Battle of the Atlantic would have to factor in for a theoretical Axis win.The U-boats were kneecapping Atlantic supply routes before the Allies cracked the Enigma cipher and made some advances in marine radar. If neither of those things had happened, piling on top of the other theoretical points listed, maybe.

If neither of those happen, Germany would still need to hope that aircraft engines aren't improved to the point where planes could provide aerial coverage over the entire shipping route. To say nothing of needing Henry Kaiser to get hit by a car so that American shipyards aren't producing ships faster than the Germans could sink them.
06-04-2014 02:26 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:20 PM)CameramanJ Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:16 PM)john01992 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The biggest factor in the Axis losing the war was Hitler declaring war on Russia. Had they not tried to fight a war on 2 fronts, they would have conquered all of Europe. The Russian winter decimated their army, and was the beginning of the end for Germany.

on the flip side russia would of spent those years building up their power than go all out on a depleted germany within a decade.

Perhaps less. Hitler was ambitious. Stalin was crazy. One thing is for sure: the Baltic would be just craters and tank husks by the end.

stalin quotes:
-One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.
-Death solves all problems - no man, no problem.
-The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do.
-Gratitude is a sickness suffered by dogs.

yeah the motherf***er was a nutjob
06-04-2014 02:28 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
I think the general consensus is no.

Germany, contrary to popular belief, lacked the resources for a drawn out war. It's best hope was for a negotiate peace but even that would not have given it control over the resources it would need to accomplish its goals later on.

The same is true of the Japanese. While they did actually capture all of the raw materials they could need they utterly lacked the industrial capacity to realize their goals. By 1943, the US arms industry was producing 6.5 tones of supplies for each solider deployed in the Pacific theatre, the Japanese were only producing a little under 100lbs. Over the course of the entire war the Japanese armaments industry barely out produced Italy. It was doomed from the start.
(This post was last modified: 06-04-2014 02:39 PM by HeartOfDixie.)
06-04-2014 02:38 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:38 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think the general consensus is no.

Germany, contrary to popular belief, lacked the resources for a drawn out war. It's best hope was for a negotiate peace but even that would not have given it control over the resources it would need to accomplish its goals later on.

The same is true of the Japanese. While they did actually capture all of the raw materials they could need they utterly lacked the industrial capacity to realize their goals. By 1943, the US arms industry was producing 6.5 tones of supplies for each solider deployed in the Pacific theatre, the Japanese were only producing a little under 100lbs. Over the course of the entire war the Japanese armaments industry barely out produced Italy. It was doomed from the start.

it's amazing how so many world leaders made so many terrible decisions in this era.
06-04-2014 02:42 PM
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CameramanJ Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:26 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:02 PM)CameramanJ Wrote:  I have to figure that the Battle of the Atlantic would have to factor in for a theoretical Axis win.The U-boats were kneecapping Atlantic supply routes before the Allies cracked the Enigma cipher and made some advances in marine radar. If neither of those things had happened, piling on top of the other theoretical points listed, maybe.

If neither of those happen, Germany would still need to hope that aircraft engines aren't improved to the point where planes could provide aerial coverage over the entire shipping route. To say nothing of needing Henry Kaiser to get hit by a car so that American shipyards aren't producing ships faster than the Germans could sink them.

I concede those points, although you can only play "send it all through and see what makes it out the other end" for so long in that situation. And an advance in fighter/bomber escort engine fuel efficiency to the tune of trans-atlantic capable at that time is a bit of a reach IMO. And if we're playing by the OP theoretical, Allied carriers would likely be unavailable for re-fuel on the way.
06-04-2014 02:42 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:38 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think the general consensus is no.

Germany, contrary to popular belief, lacked the resources for a drawn out war. It's best hope was for a negotiate peace but even that would not have given it control over the resources it would need to accomplish its goals later on.

But in john0 scenario there is no Russian front. Thus the European Theater is Germany and Italy versus the UK (with a little US supply support). France falls ahead of schedule and Iberian and Norwegian Peninsula nations surrender as well without any real prospects of support. Germany keeps firing V-2's into Britain while fortifying the Atlantic Wall and stepping up U-Boats patrols of the English Channel and the Straits of Gibraltar to keep Allied shipping out of Europe. By the time June 6th 1944 roles around, the Reich offers to end hostilities with the UK. Does Churchill accept this deal without knowing whether or not the US will intervene?
06-04-2014 02:49 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
Even without an Eastern front, after the Battle of Britain, there is nothing to knock the UK out of the war.

The question would hinge on wether or not a drawn out war would deprive the Brits of the desire to fight, not the capacity. If so, then yes. If not, then a British victory would still be a certainty.

Germany's ability to wage a long war was incredibly limited whereas the Brits had the rich resources and help of its empire to sustain it.

Such a conflict would mirror the Anglo-French conflicts of the 19th and 18th centuries.
06-04-2014 02:54 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:42 PM)CameramanJ Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:26 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:02 PM)CameramanJ Wrote:  I have to figure that the Battle of the Atlantic would have to factor in for a theoretical Axis win.The U-boats were kneecapping Atlantic supply routes before the Allies cracked the Enigma cipher and made some advances in marine radar. If neither of those things had happened, piling on top of the other theoretical points listed, maybe.

If neither of those happen, Germany would still need to hope that aircraft engines aren't improved to the point where planes could provide aerial coverage over the entire shipping route. To say nothing of needing Henry Kaiser to get hit by a car so that American shipyards aren't producing ships faster than the Germans could sink them.

I concede those points, although you can only play "send it all through and see what makes it out the other end" for so long in that situation. And an advance in fighter/bomber escort engine fuel efficiency to the tune of trans-atlantic capable at that time is a bit of a reach IMO. And if we're playing by the OP theoretical, Allied carriers would likely be unavailable for re-fuel on the way.

No, I agree the quantity/quality argument only gets you so far. But having B-24 Liberators on hand to prevent U-boats wolfpacks from forming in the gap went a long way to ensuring men and materiel made it across.
06-04-2014 02:55 PM
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