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Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:49 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:38 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think the general consensus is no.

Germany, contrary to popular belief, lacked the resources for a drawn out war. It's best hope was for a negotiate peace but even that would not have given it control over the resources it would need to accomplish its goals later on.

But in john0 scenario there is no Russian front. Thus the European Theater is Germany and Italy versus the UK (with a little US supply support). France falls ahead of schedule and Iberian and Norwegian Peninsula nations surrender as well without any real prospects of support. Germany keeps firing V-2's into Britain while fortifying the Atlantic Wall and stepping up U-Boats patrols of the English Channel and the Straits of Gibraltar to keep Allied shipping out of Europe. By the time June 6th 1944 roles around, the Reich offers to end hostilities with the UK. Does Churchill accept this deal without knowing whether or not the US will intervene?

now that's a tough question. as the saying goes "i don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you." some have said that Churchill was the most overrated politician of all time. After leading GB to victory he did lose an election and if you can only imagine what would happen to his popularity if things were that bad.

most likely another british politician wins on a platform asking for peace and hitler waits for that guy to enter the picture.
(This post was last modified: 06-04-2014 02:56 PM by john01992.)
06-04-2014 02:55 PM
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GoApps70 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
Japanese could have prolonged the war quite a bit by invading Hawaii in 1941,
even if they had to delay invading the Philippines. However the Axis still
would have lost. Germany not invading Russian and the Japanese not bombing
Pearl Harbor the Germans could have won by invading Britain, but that didn't happen.
06-04-2014 02:55 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
It's worth pointing out that the invasion of France stretched the Wehrmacht to its breaking point. It cost the German forces dearly, as you'd expect given the fact that it was a David v. Goliath fight where the German victory was a complete and utter shock.

Hitler's plans to invade the UK were considered unrealistic by many in the Wehrmacht even before the Battle of Britain.
(This post was last modified: 06-04-2014 03:08 PM by HeartOfDixie.)
06-04-2014 03:01 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:54 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Even without an Eastern front, after the Battle of Britain, there is nothing to knock the UK out of the war.

The question would hinge on wether or not a drawn out war would deprive the Brits of the desire to fight, not the capacity. If so, then yes. If not, then a British victory would still be a certainty.

Germany's ability to wage a long war was incredibly limited whereas the Brits had the rich resources and help of its empire to sustain it.

Such a conflict would mirror the Anglo-French conflicts of the 19th and 18th centuries.

I apologize for not clarifying my point. From the time the Brits are thrown off the continent at Dunkirk in 1940 until D-Day in 1944, the UK had no direct conflict with Germany in Europe. I'm only suggesting that the Reich keep it that way. Don't waste the Luftwaffe in the Battle of Britain. Simply fortify the Atlantic Wall with AA batteries and force Britain to decide whether or not to invade.
06-04-2014 03:11 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 03:11 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:54 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Even without an Eastern front, after the Battle of Britain, there is nothing to knock the UK out of the war.

The question would hinge on wether or not a drawn out war would deprive the Brits of the desire to fight, not the capacity. If so, then yes. If not, then a British victory would still be a certainty.

Germany's ability to wage a long war was incredibly limited whereas the Brits had the rich resources and help of its empire to sustain it.

Such a conflict would mirror the Anglo-French conflicts of the 19th and 18th centuries.

I apologize for not clarifying my point. From the time the Brits are thrown off the continent at Dunkirk in 1940 until D-Day in 1944, the UK had no direct conflict with Germany in Europe. I'm only suggesting that the Reich keep it that way. Don't waste the Luftwaffe in the Battle of Britain. Simply fortify the Atlantic Wall with AA batteries and force Britain to decide whether or not to invade.

Oh okay.

Well, then in that case the war would be waged in North Africa where British forces performed very well. The advantages they had their were the same, supplies and manpower. Without the US those advantages would have been narrower but still would have existed.

The outcome is the same I think. Germany would be bled into submission, perhaps over 10 years or so though.

Now, the wildcard would be the Italian Regia Marina. If we change some command and control conflicts in their Supreme Command you have a very different outcome if the Italians had ever made a serious play for sea dominance. On paper the Regia Marina was more than capable of it.

If the Germans had agreed with the Italians on an invasion of Malta then Italy would likely have become a participant of much greater importance.

An Italian military up to speed and well equipped with the weapons they finally had in 1943 would have been a force and one that could easily have tipped the balance.
(This post was last modified: 06-04-2014 03:20 PM by HeartOfDixie.)
06-04-2014 03:18 PM
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Post: #26
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
If Germany and Japan can get Russian oil, it is a very different proposition. Logistics decided that war, as logistics decide most wars.
06-04-2014 03:22 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
Its cool HOD. I just believe that Germany's chances of success while slim, did actually exist while for Japan to succeed it would have required to US to basically shrug its collective shoulders after Pearl Harbor and remain isolationist.
06-04-2014 03:37 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 02:02 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 01:34 PM)john01992 Wrote:  even under the best case scenario:

-They don't declare war on Russia

This is the major factor. Do this and Germany can take all of Europe.

Quote:-The United States loses its carriers, dry docks, & oil reserves at Pearl Harbor

The loss of Pearl only give Japan a 3-4 month window to assert local control of the Western Pacific. They can't hold Pearl Harbor, nor can they reach the West Coast. Eventually the US comes back and retakes everything it lost.

Quote:
-The US only declares war on only Japan and Germany-US do not go to war in late 1941

If this occurs without the two front consideration then the Western Allies have no chance of expelling Germany from France and Spain.

Quote:could they have pulled off the win with all of this????

IMO, Germany might have locked up Western Europe, but Japan had no chance of ever succeeding in their goals.

This is my view as well. On a side note, with the initial US carriers destroyed, could Japan have invaded Hawaii, taken it, and held it for a reasonable period of time? Would that have delayed their eventual loss, just based on the logistics of controlling Hawaii?
06-04-2014 04:00 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 04:00 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 02:02 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 01:34 PM)john01992 Wrote:  even under the best case scenario:

-They don't declare war on Russia

This is the major factor. Do this and Germany can take all of Europe.

Quote:-The United States loses its carriers, dry docks, & oil reserves at Pearl Harbor

The loss of Pearl only give Japan a 3-4 month window to assert local control of the Western Pacific. They can't hold Pearl Harbor, nor can they reach the West Coast. Eventually the US comes back and retakes everything it lost.

Quote:
-The US only declares war on only Japan and Germany-US do not go to war in late 1941

If this occurs without the two front consideration then the Western Allies have no chance of expelling Germany from France and Spain.

Quote:could they have pulled off the win with all of this????

IMO, Germany might have locked up Western Europe, but Japan had no chance of ever succeeding in their goals.

This is my view as well. On a side note, with the initial US carriers destroyed, could Japan have invaded Hawaii, taken it, and held it for a reasonable period of time? Would that have delayed their eventual loss, just based on the logistics of controlling Hawaii?

if japan got hawaii & held it that would been huge. all those sunken battleships & carriers could have been captured and rebuilt. or at the very least have their guns taken and fitted onto japanesse ships.
06-04-2014 04:03 PM
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FuzzyHasek Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
allow the Me262 to enter production on time in '42 before the P51D was able to be mass produced
Continued attacking RAF Airfield instead of city bombing, the RAF itself estimated it had about 6mo left until they switched bombing sites

Japan was defeated by the way its flag officers understood their honor code. They never instituted the convoy system and the different branches were unable to operate effectively together because the flag officers would lie about available resources

The war was won with US mass production, allowed by geography and technological limits of the day. The German Army was far better trained and capable then any it faced, its fatal flaw was a lack of logistical capacity.
06-04-2014 04:21 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 04:21 PM)FuzzyHasek Wrote:  allow the Me262 to enter production on time in '42 before the P51D was able to be mass produced
Continued attacking RAF Airfield instead of city bombing, the RAF itself estimated it had about 6mo left until they switched bombing sites

Japan was defeated by the way its flag officers understood their honor code. They never instituted the convoy system and the different branches were unable to operate effectively together because the flag officers would lie about available resources

The war was won with US mass production, allowed by geography and technological limits of the day. The German Army was far better trained and capable then any it faced, its fatal flaw was a lack of logistical capacity.

excellant points
06-04-2014 04:27 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
Two reasons why the Axis ultimately lost: Germany invaded Russia, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. Russia and Germany had an untrusted alliance and would've stayed that way, and Japan should've never brought the US into the war.
06-04-2014 04:34 PM
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USM@FTL Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
Mein Kampf basically stated that invading the Soviet Union was inevitable. Defeating the Soviet Union hinged on literally killing Stalin. Cutting the head off of that snake would have been highly unlikely. Germany, under Hitler, was doomed.

I always wonder how delaying Barbarossa for even a year would have changed things. Bypassing Stalingrad and cutting it off instead of turning it into a deciding "meatgrinder" would have changed things as well. Taking Moscow as quickly as possible, before Winter, might have captured/killed Stalin.

Always a fascinating subject.
06-04-2014 04:37 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 04:37 PM)USM@FTL Wrote:  Mein Kampf basically stated that invading the Soviet Union was inevitable. Defeating the Soviet Union hinged on literally killing Stalin. Cutting the head off of that snake would have been highly unlikely. Germany, under Hitler, was doomed.

I always wonder how delaying Barbarossa for even a year would have changed things. Bypassing Stalingrad and cutting it off instead of turning it into a deciding "meatgrinder" would have changed things as well. Taking Moscow as quickly as possible, before Winter, might have captured/killed Stalin.

Always a fascinating subject.

It's interesting they got so close (or got in) to Leningrad, Moscow, and Stalingrad, without taking any of them. As it is though they were lucky that Stalin had purged so many experienced officers and then refused to prepare his forces optimally for defense due, apparently, to concerns of provoking the Germans.
06-04-2014 04:47 PM
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GoApps70 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 03:01 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  It's worth pointing out that the invasion of France stretched the Wehrmacht to its breaking point. It cost the German forces dearly, as you'd expect given the fact that it was a David v. Goliath fight where the German victory was a complete and utter shock.

Hitler's plans to invade the UK were considered unrealistic by many in the Wehrmacht even before the Battle of Britain.
And of course Hitler did not want to attack Britain. He did offer them peace with Britain keeping it's overseas colonies and Hitler having control of Europe.
06-04-2014 04:49 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-04-2014 04:49 PM)GoApps70 Wrote:  
(06-04-2014 03:01 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  It's worth pointing out that the invasion of France stretched the Wehrmacht to its breaking point. It cost the German forces dearly, as you'd expect given the fact that it was a David v. Goliath fight where the German victory was a complete and utter shock.

Hitler's plans to invade the UK were considered unrealistic by many in the Wehrmacht even before the Battle of Britain.
And of course Hitler did not want to attack Britain. He did offer them peace with Britain keeping it's overseas colonies and Hitler having control of Europe.

Pretty much. Hitler banked a lot on the British taking their defeat the first round in France as reason to not mess with Germany, and that they would quickly sign for peace. Hitler would then do the same with the US, and he would then have the time he needed to really control Western Europe and expand his own empire.

Ultimately though he had to take Russia to have any shot at winning the war, and there was no way he would be able to do that. Britain managed to carry on underground rebellions in Europe, and keep the public happy at home, and then the War was over the minute Japan brought the US Into the mess.

If Britain had ever been invaded, the US would have immediately went to war...so Germany's only hope was that both countries would choose to stay out of Europe and mind their own business.

Thankfully, Hitler only real gift was of speech. He was a terrible Military strategist, and his Ego meant it was his way or the highway.
06-05-2014 01:49 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
Dumbest thing Hitler did:

Declare war on the Soviet Union before finishing off Britain.

Second dumbest thing Hitler did:

Declare war on the United States when he didn't have to.
06-05-2014 01:50 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
One of the dumbest things the Germans did was dramatically underestimate the quality and strategic prowess of the Italian navy.
06-05-2014 02:12 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-05-2014 02:12 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  One of the dumbest things the Germans did was dramatically underestimate the quality and strategic prowess of the Italian navy.

did you get that right?
06-05-2014 03:04 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Could the Axis powers have won WWII????
(06-05-2014 03:04 PM)john01992 Wrote:  
(06-05-2014 02:12 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  One of the dumbest things the Germans did was dramatically underestimate the quality and strategic prowess of the Italian navy.

did you get that right?

What?
06-05-2014 03:12 PM
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