btstimpy
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RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-15-2014 11:25 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote: Now that the 2012-13 revenue figures have been released by the NCAA, I slapped together some of the facts and figures that we toss around about a school's worth in realignment. I have taken all of the FBS schools and given them a 1 to 5 score in the following categories:
1. Undergraduate population (indicator of alumni quantity and current ability to support)
2. U.S. News World Report score - Has limitations, but good indicator of general health and prestige of undergraduate program and arts programs.
3. ARWU (Academic Ranking of World Universities) - Good indicator of research focus and capacity.
4. 2013 football attendance - It doesn't matter how good a school is if no one shows up.
5. 2012-13 gross athletic revenue - Sure, the school accountants work the numbers, but it is a good indicator of a school's ability to fund athletics through the AD and contribute the overflow to university causes.
The glaring item missing is TV markets, but I agree with JRSec that the future of major realignment will be value, not market potential. Also missing is the subjective "legacy" and "future potential". This is just an indicator of where things now stand.
So, without further ado, the breakdown of scores. I used some judgment here and found the most natural breaking points:
1. Undergraduate Students - (5) 25,000+, (4) 20,000+, (3) 15,000+, (2) 10,000+, (1) less than 10,000
2. USNWR - (5) 1-75, (4) 76-149 and service academies, (3) 150-200, (2) 201+ or high ranked regional, (1) average to low ranked regional
3. ARWU - (5) 1-75, (4) 76-199, (3) 200-299, (2) 300-499, (1) Not Ranked
4. Football Attendance - (5) 75,000+, (4) 55,000+ (3) 40,000+ (2) 20,000+ (1) less than 20,000
5. Revenue - (5) $87 mil +, (4) $65 mil +, (3) $40 mil +, (2) $25 mil +, (1) less than $25 mil
Tally up the totals for each school and divide by 5 to give a score on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 being the most valuable schools/programs.
5 - Florida, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, Wisconsin
4.8 - none
4.6 - California, Florida State, Georgia, Minnesota, Texas A&M, UCLA, Washington
4.4 - Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Rutgers, Southern Cal
4.2 - Indiana, Iowa, Virginia Tech
4 - Arizona, Arizona State, LSU, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama (this low because they are not ranked in ARWU since the med school is UAB)
3.8 - Auburn, BYU, Clemson, Colorado, Iowa State, Maryland, NC State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Stanford
3.6 - Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon, Virginia
3.4 - Central Florida, Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, Northwestern, Oregon State, Utah
3.2 - Connecticut, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Washington State
3 - Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Massachusetts, Mississippi State, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, West Virginia
2.8 - Buffalo, Houston, Louisville, Mississippi, San Diego State
2.6 - Boston College, Hawaii, New Mexico, Rice, TCU, Wake Forest
2.4 - East Carolina, Ohio, SMU
2.2 - Appalachian State, Kent State, Miami-Oxford, North Texas, Tulane, Utah State
2 - Air Force, Army, Central Michigan, Florida International, Memphis, Navy, Nevada, UAB, UTSA, Western Michigan
1.8 - Akron, Ball State, Fresno State, Northern Illinois, Old Dominion, San Jose State, Texas State, Tulsa, UNC-Charlotte, UNLV, UTEP, Wyoming
1.6 - Boise State, Bowling Green, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Idaho, LA-Lafayette, MTSU, New Mexico State, Southern Miss
1.4 - Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Toledo, Western Kentucky
1.2 - Arkansas State, Eastern Michigan, South Alabama
1 - LA-Monroe, Troy
Highlights: 1) The private schools get hit by undergraduate population, but many also have football attendance below 40,000 (BC, WF, Duke, Vandy, Cuse, NW). 2) The Mississippi schools are fortunate that they are squeezed between many powerhouses and that the SEC is loyal. 3) Boise State is doing a heck of a job, because their raw data suggests they are virtually identical to Fresno State. 4) An asterisk may be needed beside Army, Navy, Air Force, BYU, and Notre Dame because of their unique national followings by non-alumni. I was not sure how to objectively score "following" for them but leave out special cases like Nebraska, USC, etc. TV following is probably the best indicator if anyone has a good set of numbers we can use.
If anyone has legit TV market share data, I'd love to add it to this data and see what comes up. Yes, in a vacuum, UCF, USF, Temple, and UMass look good, but that is not the whole story.
I have posted this on the SEC board, and we had a good discussion about how we see the data. Please don't use this exercise to degrade another school (here's looking at you, rival/hated schools within Texas). Also, it would be fine to use a +/- .2 for these scores. Many schools have a borderline score in at least one category. This is just to give a general idea.
For those wondering, the average conference scores are below. This shows where teams will be as of next year (e.g. Louisville in ACC, Rutgers/Maryland in Big 10):
Big 10 - 4.4
PAC - 3.95
SEC - 3.87
ACC - 3.52
Big 12 - 3.42
AAC - 2.6
MWC - 2.16
MAC - 2.01
CUSA - 1.8
Sun Belt - 1.49
Interesting scale. It would be interesting to see how it looks if you drop the ARWU. That's more for graduate research. A very minimal number of the student athletes involved are graduate students, and most fans relate to their undergraduate school as alumni. As you note, this artificial measurement is weighting down some obviously valuable schools for CR like Alabama. Leave USN&WR in and remove ARWU to get a better measure. That will give you a better picture.
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