(10-27-2013 06:38 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-27-2013 05:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-27-2013 05:06 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-27-2013 01:55 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  I can see why BYU would want to be independent from the MWC due to it's bottom end but if the opportunity arises for them to be in a division of five western teams in a 20 team AAC that is in the upper Division then I don't see them remaining Indie.

Why would they want to give up independence to be in the AAC you describe?

They will be included in any "D4" as an independent.

Because they might like easier access to the BCS, easier access to multiple bowls, and they may not want to be on the road for the last month of every season. They could play an AAC schedule and still play 4 top level AQ's if they like. Frankly, I think it will come down to how the new D-4 is set up. They might prefer independence or prefer a conference depending on the way D4 is designed.

I don't think getting into an Access Bowl if they deserve it is going to be too much of a problem for BYU with that large fanbase.

I do.
The only reason the G5 will get into an Access Bowl is it was part of the deal. Any of those bowls are going to take LSU, Southern Cal, Notre Dame, or Michigan, or schools like that over BYU every time.

BYU has no chance unless they go undefeated. And even then it isn't a lock.

I don't think Indy/WCC is all that wonderful for BYU, but I agree with Wedge, staying in the MWC after Utah was invited to the Pac12 wasn't a realistic option.

(10-28-2013 05:55 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(10-27-2013 08:03 PM)Old Dominion Navy Wrote:  If BYU Joins Any Conference For Any Reason It Would Be The Big 12. BYU Sees Themselves As Just As Good Or Better Than Utah, They Will Only Join A Conference That Is Just As Good As Or Better Than The PAC 12. I'm Sorry But The AAC Is Not That.

This is part of it. There's definitely some big time branding perception involved here and it's driven by the leadership of the LDS as opposed to the athletic department. This isn't about making bowls or ease of scheduling for BYU. Instead, this is about what makes them into a national brand that gets exposure nationally (i.e. ESPN, BYUtv) and overseas. Independence is absolutely better for BYU in that regard compared to joining a Group of Five conference (even with a special Boise State-type revenue deal). A school that can make a go of it as an independent is a "special" brand (and I'm talking about independence by choice as opposed to forced independence a la what happened to the remnants of the WAC temporarily). Even if the athletic department at BYU would want to see them join a conference, the LDS leadership has an entirely different game plan.

The only way that BYU joins a conference is if it's the Big 12. (BYU would love the Pac-12, but political factors within that league would kill that prospect.) There's about as much of a chance of BYU taking a "special deal" with a Gang of 5 conference as there is of Notre Dame doing the same.

What Frank said. Why is it that everyone thinks that everyone else wants the easiest path possible?

Maybe, just maybe, there are bigger concerns at the subject school and that they want to forge their own, different (even harder, perhaps) path than just following the herd into full football conference membership? The thought process is not the same for every school.

I have a feeling that BYU and the academies won't be the only "notable" independents in about 5-10 years.

Why would BYU join a league that has very little long-term stability? The AAC is 2 defections from complete collapse right now and they are PRAYING that nobody comes to pick off ANY of their schools.

The MWC? That's not what it once was. BYU won't come back.

(10-29-2013 08:14 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  I have a feeling that BYU and the academies won't be the only "notable" independents in about 5-10 years.

Why would BYU join a league that has very little long-term stability? The AAC is 2 defections from complete collapse right now and they are PRAYING that nobody comes to pick off ANY of their schools.

The MWC? That's not what it once was. BYU won't come back.

I think the only independents from 2015 and beyond will be Notre Dame, BYU and Army. Army may join a conference in a couple of years depending what is going to happen with the D1 congress and if the FBS governing itself is going to be more than just football. Even then, BYU may have to join the MW depending on what transpires with the FBS 'division' because there is no way the WCC is gong to be allowing stipends in their conference.

(10-29-2013 08:14 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  I have a feeling that BYU and the academies won't be the only "notable" independents in about 5-10 years.

Why would BYU join a league that has very little long-term stability? The AAC is 2 defections from complete collapse right now and they are PRAYING that nobody comes to pick off ANY of their schools.

The MWC? That's not what it once was. BYU won't come back.

Why would the AAC collapse if 2 schools left. Where would anybody go? If anybody had a better pace to go they would be there already. Nobody in the AAC is going to CUSA, the MAC, or Sunbelt. Maybe some of the western schools might go to the MW--but even that's not a sure thing since both SMU and Houston seem to have always chosen eastern conferences over the western alternative. I think they would probably just reload and soldier on as best they could.

Cincy, Uconn, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU,
BYU, Boise, SDSU, Fresno, UNLV, New Mex

That's it. NO more than that.

(10-29-2013 08:42 PM)goofus Wrote:  Cincy, Uconn, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU,
BYU, Boise, SDSU, Fresno, UNLV, New Mex

That's it. NO more than that.

UConn and SDSU in the same conference? You must be Marinatto or Aresco in drag.

(10-28-2013 02:51 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  BYU Sports Nation ‏@BYUSportsNation 41m

Holmoe said the "interesting" 2 bowl games will be diff than what #BYU has done in the past. All bowl will be locked prior to next season.
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BYU Sports Nation ‏@BYUSportsNation 46m

Holmoe told BYU Sports Nation the other bowl games are "something we are working on with ESPN right now for the future." #BYU
Expand
BYU Sports Nation ‏@BYUSportsNation 49m

More from Holmoe...The other 2 yrs of the 6 yr Bowl term will be "something interesting for the fans." #BYU
Expand
BYU Sports Nation ‏@BYUSportsNation 50m

Tom Holmoe today on BYU Sports Nation. BYU Bowl situation over next 6 yrs. 2 yrs w/ Poinsettia, 2 yrs locked w/ another yet 2B named bowls.
Expand


So the 2 yet to be named I guess are Hawaii and Las Vegas (the 2 MW vacates during the next cycle) and 2 with the ESPN G5 Bowl coalition.

A lot of Mormons want to vacation in Las Vegas? Interesting.

(10-29-2013 08:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-29-2013 08:14 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  I have a feeling that BYU and the academies won't be the only "notable" independents in about 5-10 years.

Why would BYU join a league that has very little long-term stability? The AAC is 2 defections from complete collapse right now and they are PRAYING that nobody comes to pick off ANY of their schools.

The MWC? That's not what it once was. BYU won't come back.

Why would the AAC collapse if 2 schools left. Where would anybody go? If anybody had a better pace to go they would be there already. Nobody in the AAC is going to CUSA, the MAC, or Sunbelt. Maybe some of the western schools might go to the MW--but even that's not a sure thing since both SMU and Houston seem to have always chosen eastern conferences over the western alternative. I think they would probably just reload and soldier on as best they could.

Agreed. Nobody is going anywhere even if the league is decapitated (again). Under the CFP agreement with the G5, league members are guaranteed over $1-2 million per year. The AAC has the best TV deal among the G5. All CUSA and Sun Belt members and some MAC members would be lined up to fill any empty slots.

[/quote]

A lot of Mormons want to vacation in Las Vegas? Interesting.
[/quote]

The fishing guides up in Wyoming have a saying:

If you have two Mormons in your boat, bring a six pack of beer. If you have one Mormon, bring a case.

(10-29-2013 08:14 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  I have a feeling that BYU and the academies won't be the only "notable" independents in about 5-10 years.

Why would BYU join a league that has very little long-term stability? The AAC is 2 defections from complete collapse right now and they are PRAYING that nobody comes to pick off ANY of their schools.

The MWC? That's not what it once was. BYU won't come back.

The American isn't anywhere near complete collapse. They'll just reload.

As an example let's say the American loses their two most prominent members; Cincinnati and Connecticut. At this point Army may feel they can compete in this conference, and with Army there maybe Air Force will join in. If they still refuse then Southern Miss and Old Dominion seem like good options in the west and east.

(10-29-2013 02:01 AM)CPslograd Wrote:  

(10-27-2013 06:38 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-27-2013 05:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-27-2013 05:06 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-27-2013 01:55 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  I can see why BYU would want to be independent from the MWC due to it's bottom end but if the opportunity arises for them to be in a division of five western teams in a 20 team AAC that is in the upper Division then I don't see them remaining Indie.

Why would they want to give up independence to be in the AAC you describe?

They will be included in any "D4" as an independent.

Because they might like easier access to the BCS, easier access to multiple bowls, and they may not want to be on the road for the last month of every season. They could play an AAC schedule and still play 4 top level AQ's if they like. Frankly, I think it will come down to how the new D-4 is set up. They might prefer independence or prefer a conference depending on the way D4 is designed.

I don't think getting into an Access Bowl if they deserve it is going to be too much of a problem for BYU with that large fanbase.

I do.
The only reason the G5 will get into an Access Bowl is it was part of the deal. Any of those bowls are going to take LSU, Southern Cal, Notre Dame, or Michigan, or schools like that over BYU every time.

BYU has no chance unless they go undefeated. And even then it isn't a lock.

I don't think Indy/WCC is all that wonderful for BYU, but I agree with Wedge, staying in the MWC after Utah was invited to the Pac12 wasn't a realistic option.

Fiesta Bowl would look hard at a 1 loss or zero loss BYU.

(10-30-2013 01:34 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  A lot of Mormons want to vacation in Las Vegas? Interesting.

Las Vegas actually has one of the highest concentrations (and possibly the very highest concentration) of Mormons outside of Utah. This was a big factor in Mitt Romney's overwhelming win in the 2012 GOP caucuses in Nevada. BYU *loves* going to Las Vegas.

(10-29-2013 08:14 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Why would BYU join a league that has very little long-term stability? The AAC is 2 defections from complete collapse right now and they are PRAYING that nobody comes to pick off ANY of their schools.

For goodness sakes. Utterly ridiculous.

Prior to ND finding its partial home in the ACC, I thought one of the few interesting notions for the Big 12 would have been to have both BYU and ND as partial members. Full membership would obviously be preferable, but by adding two prominent national brands on a part-time basis it would have provided more inventory than either of them would have alone. It also struck me that it had the potential to make the move more palatable for both of them.

However, they both clearly make decisions based on their own priorities. I think that the LDS leadership has a strong preference for independence and control at this point. ND also clearly values independence, and found the ACC more desirable geographically than the Big 12, knowing full well that they can schedule the most attractive members for out-of-conference games if they choose to do so.