To quote one of my favorite Bugs lines of all time.

Iran 'definitely' closing Strait of Hormuz over EU oil embargo


Tensions in the Gulf could reach a breaking point as a senior Iranian official said Iran would “definitely” close the Strait of Hormuz if an EU oil embargo disrupted the export of crude oil, the semi-official Fars news agency reports.

The announcement came in response to a decision by the European Union on Monday to impose an oil embargo on Iran over the country’s alleged nuclear weapons program.

“The pressure of sanctions is designed to try and make sure that Iran takes seriously our request to come to the table,” EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said.

However, with Washington’s decision to deploy a second carrier strike group in the Gulf, the EU’s attempt to pressure Iran economically could greatly increase the likelihood of all-out war in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz is the vital link between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

It is also one of the most strategic chokepoints in the world when it comes to oil transit.

With world oil output estimated at some 88 million barrels per day in 2011, the US Energy Information Administration estimated that some 17 million of those barrels passed through the Strait.

If economic sanctions sufficiently pressure Iran to retaliate by closing down the Strait, nearly 20 per cent of worldwide oil trade would be impacted, resulting in a massive spike in global energy costs.

With over half a million regular forces and an additional 120,000 personnel in the country’s elite Revolutionary Guard, analysts believe the consequences of a US-led war against Iran would dwarf recent Western-backed military incursions the Middle East.

Thus far, the US decision to maintain two carrier strike groups in the region has been described as “a routine activity” by Iran.

But the vast US military buildup in the region, which was bolstered when the Pentagon dispatched an additional 15,000 troops to the neighboring nation of Kuwait, was only the latest step in an obvious attempt by Washington to strengthen its military capabilities in the region.

However since 1988, when the United States managed to destroy some 25 per cent of Iran’s larger naval capability during Operation Praying Mantis, Iran has spent the last two decades preparing its Revolutionary Guard naval forces to exploit the vulnerabilities of the United States’ larger conventional forces.

According to Revolutionary Guard commander Brigadier General Jafaari, "The enemy is far more advanced technologically than we are, we have been using what is called asymmetric warfare methods… our forces are now well prepared for it," he said, as cited by Global Bearings.

Ultimately, the latest round of brinkmanship between Iran and the West may force Iran to the negotiating table over its uranium enrichment program.

However, the EU strategy of averting "chaos in the Middle East" by tightening the economic noose around Iran could spark the very conflagration it was ostensibly trying to avert.

http://rt.com/news/iran-close-strait-hor...bargo-455/

Would there be any way to claim this is not a war for oil then?

(01-23-2012 11:34 AM)AtlanticLeague Wrote:  Would there be any way to claim this is not a war for oil then?

Come on now. You know it is all about the nukes(ya know "mushroom clouds").

1. Obama now gets the hidiously high gas prices he always wanted, but does he really want that heading into an election? (all while Robert blames the greedy oil companies)

2. Let's sit this one out and let Europe and China start playing World Police.

(01-23-2012 11:52 AM)smn1256 Wrote:  2. Let's sit this one out and let Europe and China start playing World Police.

This... Lets work with Canada to get KeyStone Built. But Oil is fungible, even if we get 100% of ours from CA shutting down Hormuz screws our economy.

Maybe if conservatives were more on the "GET THE **** OFF OIL" train we could just laugh at them. But nope, gotta knock every attempt to find a new source of fuel for transportation.

(01-23-2012 12:08 PM)BleedsHuskieRed Wrote:  Maybe if conservatives were more on the "GET THE **** OFF OIL" train we could just laugh at them. But nope, gotta knock every attempt to find a new source of fuel for transportation.

Because none of them work or are efficient enough to be pratical. Spending $50k on a Prius and watching your home electric bill go through the roof as the electric company goes full tilt just to charge the damn thing doesn't do anything other than ease the tremendous guilt people feel over something they have very, very little control over. Meanwhile, Al Gore flies from mansion to mansion in his private jet while he's telling you to take a bike to work in sub-zero weather.

(01-23-2012 12:35 PM)smn1256 Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 12:08 PM)BleedsHuskieRed Wrote:  Maybe if conservatives were more on the "GET THE **** OFF OIL" train we could just laugh at them. But nope, gotta knock every attempt to find a new source of fuel for transportation.

Because none of them work or are efficient enough to be pratical. Spending $50k on a Prius and watching your home electric bill go through the roof as the electric company goes full tilt just to charge the damn thing doesn't do anything other than ease the tremendous guilt people feel over something they have very, very little control over. Meanwhile, Al Gore flies from mansion to mansion in his private jet while he's telling you to take a bike to work in sub-zero weather.

Keep on believing what you wrote is true.

I doubt that Iran puts their "navy" in the Straight. I'm sure they'll throw out some mines which we will quickly destroy and all will return to normal.

BTW, the Iranians have done this before and it didnt mean war. We just destroyed their mines and went on with business as usual.

(01-23-2012 01:08 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I doubt that Iran puts their "navy" in the Straight. I'm sure they'll throw out some mines which we will quickly destroy and all will return to normal.

BTW, the Iranians have done this before and it didnt mean war. We just destroyed their mines and went on with business as usual.

Problem is these guys are pro-war. Any little problem, no matter how small, their answer is war.

This just further illustrates what an absolutely short sighted and pathetically political decision Obama made in not approving the Keystone Pipeline.

(01-23-2012 01:39 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  This just further illustrates what an absolutely short sighted and pathetically political decision Obama made in not approving the Keystone Pipeline.

Please explain to me how this would have improved anything.

(01-23-2012 01:47 PM)RobertN Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 01:39 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  This just further illustrates what an absolutely short sighted and pathetically political decision Obama made in not approving the Keystone Pipeline.

Please explain to me how this would have improved anything.

It would create jobs in this country for the building of it. Many of them union jobs. We know how you love unions and the unions want this pipeline.

Building this pipeline not only provides us easy access to stable oil in Canada it enables us to eliminate huge cost burdens that come from importing from countries we're not land locked with.

The major reason is the export capability that comes with it. With the ease of access to our refining capacity that oil can be exported more efficiently. It's not just about pumping oil, it's about refining it. Iran is able to do both and we are one of the few countries with the capability of making up that difference.

Overall Robert it's a good thing to make Iran as unimportant as possible in the delievery of world oil supplies. The Keystone pipeline would help do that.

(01-23-2012 01:08 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I doubt that Iran puts their "navy" in the Straight. I'm sure they'll throw out some mines which we will quickly destroy and all will return to normal.

BTW, the Iranians have done this before and it didnt mean war. We just destroyed their mines and went on with business as usual.

We took out the Iranian minelayers and a couple of frigates that came out of port to challenge the US Naval strike force in the Gulf.

Operation Preying Mantis.

(01-23-2012 02:14 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 01:08 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I doubt that Iran puts their "navy" in the Straight. I'm sure they'll throw out some mines which we will quickly destroy and all will return to normal.

BTW, the Iranians have done this before and it didnt mean war. We just destroyed their mines and went on with business as usual.

We took out the Iranian minelayers and a couple of frigates that came out of port to challenge the US Naval strike force in the Gulf.

Operation Preying Mantis.

Yup. I think people wanting war don't realize how little a threat Iran is right now. Of course that changes if they go nuclear but there are ways to indefinitely delay their program just as we and the Mossad have successfully done for 25 years. As long as that is still successful there is no reason to go into full war mode with a country that would be impossible to occupy. If you think the occupation of Iraq sucked wait until you combine that with mountains, 40 million more people, and 4 times as much land.

(01-23-2012 02:28 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 02:14 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 01:08 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I doubt that Iran puts their "navy" in the Straight. I'm sure they'll throw out some mines which we will quickly destroy and all will return to normal.

BTW, the Iranians have done this before and it didnt mean war. We just destroyed their mines and went on with business as usual.

We took out the Iranian minelayers and a couple of frigates that came out of port to challenge the US Naval strike force in the Gulf.

Operation Preying Mantis.

Yup. I think people wanting war don't realize how little a threat Iran is right now. Of course that changes if they go nuclear but there are ways to indefinitely delay their program just as we and the Mossad have successfully done for 25 years. As long as that is still successful there is no reason to go into full war mode with a country that would be impossible to occupy. If you think the occupation of Iraq sucked wait until you combine that with mountains, 40 million more people, and 4 times as much land.

We don't have to have a war. Just kill most of the right people-- The Ayatollah, the members of the Guardian Council, the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards, Ahmadinejad and let the rest fall in a Revolution.

We blew a golden chance in 2009 to topple it then.

(01-23-2012 11:52 AM)smn1256 Wrote:  1. Obama now gets the hidiously high gas prices he always wanted, but does he really want that heading into an election? (all while Robert blames the greedy oil companies)

2. Let's sit this one out and let Europe and China start playing World Police.

We're the ones pushing this.. if we sat it out, the sanctions would just go away. If you agree with Ron Paul and don't want to police the rest of the world, fine, but don't think for a second anyone else has any interest in getting involved.

(01-23-2012 02:34 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 02:28 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 02:14 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 01:08 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I doubt that Iran puts their "navy" in the Straight. I'm sure they'll throw out some mines which we will quickly destroy and all will return to normal.

BTW, the Iranians have done this before and it didnt mean war. We just destroyed their mines and went on with business as usual.

We took out the Iranian minelayers and a couple of frigates that came out of port to challenge the US Naval strike force in the Gulf.

Operation Preying Mantis.

Yup. I think people wanting war don't realize how little a threat Iran is right now. Of course that changes if they go nuclear but there are ways to indefinitely delay their program just as we and the Mossad have successfully done for 25 years. As long as that is still successful there is no reason to go into full war mode with a country that would be impossible to occupy. If you think the occupation of Iraq sucked wait until you combine that with mountains, 40 million more people, and 4 times as much land.

We don't have to have a war. Just kill most of the right people-- The Ayatollah, the members of the Guardian Council, the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards, Ahmadinejad and let the rest fall in a Revolution.

We blew a golden chance in 2009 to topple it then.

If the United States and not the Iranians kills those particular people, that nation will be much more dangerous to its neighbors and millions of Iranians would die. I agree with 2009 although direct intervention of the United States wouldn't have been seen as a positive by those the Green Revolution were trying to win over in their own country. I do think that we could've done more on the ground covertly. Of course, maybe we did and it did no good.

(01-23-2012 02:41 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 02:34 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 02:28 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 02:14 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 01:08 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I doubt that Iran puts their "navy" in the Straight. I'm sure they'll throw out some mines which we will quickly destroy and all will return to normal.

BTW, the Iranians have done this before and it didnt mean war. We just destroyed their mines and went on with business as usual.

We took out the Iranian minelayers and a couple of frigates that came out of port to challenge the US Naval strike force in the Gulf.

Operation Preying Mantis.

Yup. I think people wanting war don't realize how little a threat Iran is right now. Of course that changes if they go nuclear but there are ways to indefinitely delay their program just as we and the Mossad have successfully done for 25 years. As long as that is still successful there is no reason to go into full war mode with a country that would be impossible to occupy. If you think the occupation of Iraq sucked wait until you combine that with mountains, 40 million more people, and 4 times as much land.

We don't have to have a war. Just kill most of the right people-- The Ayatollah, the members of the Guardian Council, the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards, Ahmadinejad and let the rest fall in a Revolution.

We blew a golden chance in 2009 to topple it then.

If the United States and not the Iranians kills those particular people, that nation will be much more dangerous to its neighbors and millions of Iranians would die. I agree with 2009 although direct intervention of the United States wouldn't have been seen as a positive by those the Green Revolution were trying to win over in their own country. I do think that we could've done more on the ground covertly. Of course, maybe we did and it did no good.

This. In fact, it would just insure even more hardliners take their place.

(01-23-2012 12:35 PM)smn1256 Wrote:  

(01-23-2012 12:08 PM)BleedsHuskieRed Wrote:  Maybe if conservatives were more on the "GET THE **** OFF OIL" train we could just laugh at them. But nope, gotta knock every attempt to find a new source of fuel for transportation.

Because none of them work or are efficient enough to be pratical. Spending $50k on a Prius and watching your home electric bill go through the roof as the electric company goes full tilt just to charge the damn thing doesn't do anything other than ease the tremendous guilt people feel over something they have very, very little control over. Meanwhile, Al Gore flies from mansion to mansion in his private jet while he's telling you to take a bike to work in sub-zero weather.

Don't people realize that the electric generating plants are powered by coal, oil, or natural gas turbines?? Where do they think the electricity comes from? Ban the coal plants and watch your electric bill rise! Makes sense to me!