a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day as of Monday, which matches a prewar baseline

BUT MUH CLOSED STRAIT

Dems are gonna hate that.

(10-01-2026 09:20 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dems are gonna hate that.

So will you when you find out that it's not going to a damned thing to diesel (and probably gas) prices in the short term. It took 7 months to get here, it will take 7+ months to replace the drain on inventories and stockpiles...and that's if nothing else changes in the interim!

Quote:Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks the sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets in the months to come.

“Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy,” said one respondent from an oil and gas support services company. “We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy.”

US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year

Soooo, where's the beef? When will that translate to cheaper gas at the pumps. All that good news for Trump won't help his party in the least if we don't start seeing lower prices. People aren't like us here where we see all the good that Trump does, all they want to see and with good reason cheaper prices overall. What's the use of all these investments coming into the US when the only ones getting anything out of it are the ones working and the owners? People work and don't have their noses pinned to the tv seeing all the good. Show me the money is their battle cry.

(10-01-2026 09:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:20 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dems are gonna hate that.

So will you when you find out that it's not going to a damned thing to diesel (and probably gas) prices in the short term. It took 7 months to get here, it will take 7+ months to replace the drain on inventories and stockpiles...and that's if nothing else changes in the interim!

Quote:Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks the sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets in the months to come.

“Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy,” said one respondent from an oil and gas support services company. “We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy.”

US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year

The key to all the above whatever is "Short term." Some people think beyond partisan politics. Carry on.

(10-01-2026 09:52 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:20 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dems are gonna hate that.

So will you when you find out that it's not going to a damned thing to diesel (and probably gas) prices in the short term. It took 7 months to get here, it will take 7+ months to replace the drain on inventories and stockpiles...and that's if nothing else changes in the interim!

Quote:Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks the sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets in the months to come.

“Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy,” said one respondent from an oil and gas support services company. “We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy.”

US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year

The key to all the above whatever is "Short term." Some people think beyond partisan politics. Carry on.

Please tell me you realize what elevated diesel prices like we have now continuing for another year are going to do to the cost of goods?

Now, celebrate that the "short term" will only be a year. Yeah!!!

(10-01-2026 09:52 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:20 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dems are gonna hate that.

So will you when you find out that it's not going to a damned thing to diesel (and probably gas) prices in the short term. It took 7 months to get here, it will take 7+ months to replace the drain on inventories and stockpiles...and that's if nothing else changes in the interim!

Quote:Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks the sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets in the months to come.

“Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy,” said one respondent from an oil and gas support services company. “We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy.”

US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year

The key to all the above whatever is "Short term." Some people think beyond partisan politics. Carry on.

Are these the same "experts" that said oil was going to $150/bbl? Russia is not exporting diesel through the end of this month. They are the second largest diesel exporter behind the U.S. I'm sure that has something to do with diesel prices.

(10-01-2026 10:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:52 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:20 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dems are gonna hate that.

So will you when you find out that it's not going to a damned thing to diesel (and probably gas) prices in the short term. It took 7 months to get here, it will take 7+ months to replace the drain on inventories and stockpiles...and that's if nothing else changes in the interim!

Quote:Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks the sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets in the months to come.

“Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy,” said one respondent from an oil and gas support services company. “We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy.”

US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year

The key to all the above whatever is "Short term." Some people think beyond partisan politics. Carry on.

Please tell me you realize what elevated diesel prices like we have now continuing for another year are going to do to the cost of goods?

Now, celebrate that the "short term" will only be a year. Yeah!!!

Maybe California should not have expedited through taxes and special formulas the closure of refineries. On top of that your 7 months is crap as the USA gets little oil out of strait of Hormuz. The capacity issue is a reduced refining issue. The cost is a global cost due to China buying more from where the USA buys from due to constraint of oil. the USA exports diesel And is the worlds #1 exporter. hmmmm but most of that export goes the central and South America. Maybe Ukraine and Russia could settle and stop attacking refineries.

So the Iran conflict is not the cause. It is one of a multitude of issues. loss of refining capacity on USA due to over zealous environmental taxation and Russia-Ukraine War. I’m sure there are others.

(10-01-2026 10:25 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:52 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:20 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dems are gonna hate that.

So will you when you find out that it's not going to a damned thing to diesel (and probably gas) prices in the short term. It took 7 months to get here, it will take 7+ months to replace the drain on inventories and stockpiles...and that's if nothing else changes in the interim!

Quote:Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks the sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets in the months to come.

“Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy,” said one respondent from an oil and gas support services company. “We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy.”

US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year

The key to all the above whatever is "Short term." Some people think beyond partisan politics. Carry on.

Are these the same "experts" that said oil was going to $150/bbl? Russia is not exporting diesel through the end of this month. They are the second largest diesel exporter behind the U.S. I'm sure that has something to do with diesel prices.

Narrator: AGAIN, they said that with the caveat that nothing was going to change in the ME. Then, it changed.

I/we have told you this like 5 times now.

(10-01-2026 10:41 AM)UofLCard94 Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 10:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:52 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:20 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dems are gonna hate that.

So will you when you find out that it's not going to a damned thing to diesel (and probably gas) prices in the short term. It took 7 months to get here, it will take 7+ months to replace the drain on inventories and stockpiles...and that's if nothing else changes in the interim!

Quote:Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks the sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets in the months to come.

“Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy,” said one respondent from an oil and gas support services company. “We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy.”

US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year

The key to all the above whatever is "Short term." Some people think beyond partisan politics. Carry on.

Please tell me you realize what elevated diesel prices like we have now continuing for another year are going to do to the cost of goods?

Now, celebrate that the "short term" will only be a year. Yeah!!!

Maybe California should not have expedited through taxes and special formulas the closure of refineries. On top of that your 7 months is crap as the USA gets little oil out of strait of Hormuz. The capacity issue is a reduced refining issue. The cost is a global cost due to China buying more from where the USA buys from due to constraint of oil. the USA exports diesel And is the worlds #1 exporter. hmmmm but most of that export goes the central and South America. Maybe Ukraine and Russia could settle and stop attacking refineries.

So the Iran conflict is not the cause. It is one of a multitude of issues. loss of refining capacity on USA due to over zealous environmental taxation and Russia-Ukraine War. I’m sure there are others.

You're completely out of your depth here. Just stop. There's so much wrong here, I don't even have the time to explain it all to you.

Iran war is not the cause?!?!?!? IRAN WAR IS NOT THE CAUSE?!?!?!? FFS, delete your account!

We've been refining every drop of oil we produce for years now. And we still have capacity left. Heck, we even import oil and refine it for other countries as well.

You are right that oil is global, but then can't seem to connect the dots as to why the US not getting hardly any oil from the SOH would not make a damned bit of difference to the global cost of it.

And as far as California is concerned, they're basically on a fuel island. There is basically no oil being sent there from other parts of the country to be refined. There are no pipelines going there. So it's mostly just a cost issue for the west coast and has little effect on the global supply of oil

So, what is the "caveat" they used in this "prediction"? You get out ahead of it.

(10-01-2026 10:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:52 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:20 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dems are gonna hate that.

So will you when you find out that it's not going to a damned thing to diesel (and probably gas) prices in the short term. It took 7 months to get here, it will take 7+ months to replace the drain on inventories and stockpiles...and that's if nothing else changes in the interim!

Quote:Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks the sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets in the months to come.

“Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy,” said one respondent from an oil and gas support services company. “We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy.”

US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year

The key to all the above whatever is "Short term." Some people think beyond partisan politics. Carry on.

Please tell me you realize what elevated diesel prices like we have now continuing for another year are going to do to the cost of goods?

Now, celebrate that the "short term" will only be a year. Yeah!!!

Well, they will raise prices, temporarily. Anything else is pure partisan politics.

(10-01-2026 11:41 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  So, what is the "caveat" they used in this "prediction"? You get out ahead of it.

Quote:Oil prices could hit $150 per barrel if hostilities between the United States and Iran escalate further from the current, most testing period in the ceasefire, according to intelligence firm Rystad Energy.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/...apses.html

Quote:“We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you'll see [the] price shoot up,” Neil Chapman, a senior vice president at ExxonMobil, said on Thursday at a conference organised by the investment bank, Bernstein.

“I think dated Brent, most people, well, a model would say dated Brent will shoot up. Once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160,” he added.

Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth warned at the same event that the “buffers and the shock absorbers” that have kept oil prices in check “are being steadily drawn down”.

“Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there’s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July,” he said.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/brent...ply-crunch

So their comments were all based upon either escalations or inventory levels hitting rock bottom. Clearly there was not a real escalation and some oil did finally start moving through the strait and through some other channels.

(10-01-2026 12:22 PM)VA49er Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 10:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:52 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(10-01-2026 09:20 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dems are gonna hate that.

So will you when you find out that it's not going to a damned thing to diesel (and probably gas) prices in the short term. It took 7 months to get here, it will take 7+ months to replace the drain on inventories and stockpiles...and that's if nothing else changes in the interim!

Quote:Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey tracks the sentiment in the oil industry, with its anonymous format often giving a candid view of US energy policy and politics.

The survey reflects how the fuel crisis caused by the Iran war and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities will have an enduring impact on global energy markets in the months to come.

“Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy,” said one respondent from an oil and gas support services company. “We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy.”

US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year

The key to all the above whatever is "Short term." Some people think beyond partisan politics. Carry on.

Please tell me you realize what elevated diesel prices like we have now continuing for another year are going to do to the cost of goods?

Now, celebrate that the "short term" will only be a year. Yeah!!!

Well, they will raise prices, temporarily. Anything else is pure partisan politics.

So, trucking companies, and retailers, etc. merely passing along elevated fuel prices for a year more on top of the few months they've already been steadily going up (which you feel is temporary), that's playing partisan politics?

And I've got some ocean front property to sell you in death valley if you expect them to just quickly lower their prices once IF diesel gets back down close to pre-war levels.

So, what is the "caveat" when fuel prices are down this winter, and the "industry insiders" are wrong......again? These people making these "predictions" make 8-digit bonuses when these prices are high. The last thing they will predict are lower prices. WTI is currently waaaaay overpriced. The US has more oil supply than any other time in history. We need to be building the refineries CA shut down immediately.

While I do believe more oil is passing through the Strait than there was a few months ago---oil prices (the truest indicator of supply and demand) continue to advance. That suggests to me that we arent yet back to the Gulf's pre-war levels of oil exports. As for diesel---high prices tend to curb demand---so my expectation is that diesel stocks rebound quicker than expected once enough crude oil is available to increase production. I do expect fuel prices to remain somewhat elevated for a while even after we return to pre-war world oil production because worldwide petroleum reserve stocks also need to be refilled--and that demand will persist until national reserves reach a safe level.

Ukraine bombs Russian diesel refinery
https://share.google/aimode/nBUxGkXb4YW2oeNtW

Ukrainian long-range drone and missile campaigns have heavily targeted and disrupted critical Russian diesel-producing refineries, forcing half of Russia's top six diesel facilities to cut back or halt output.

Key Impacts and Targets

• Infrastructure Damage: Major facilities like the [Kirishi refinery](https://www.google.com/search?kgmid=/m/0281_08) in Leningrad Oblast have completely halted operations, while refineries including Volgograd, NORSI, and the Gazprom Neft-owned [Moscow oil refinery](https://www.google.com/search?kgmid=/g/11rptn5wh3) have suffered severe unit damage and reduced capacity. Additional strikes have hit deep into Russia, affecting sites in Perm, Samara (Syzran), and Rostov (Novoshakhtinsk). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
• Export Bans & Market Strain: The persistent destruction of refining capacity has reduced Russia's overall diesel production by nearly 30%. This forced Moscow to implement and repeatedly extend strict bans on diesel exports. [5, 7, 8]
• Global Economic Effects: The loss of Russian refining output contributed to a tightening global fuel supply and climbing international prices, prompting public calls from figures like U.S. President Donald Trump for Ukraine to scale back infrastructure attacks. Ukraine maintains that these energy and fuel facilities are legitimate military targets supplying the Russian war effort. [1, 4, 9]
  

[1] [https://www.reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/...026-09-15/)
[2] [https://www.youtube.com](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y35MGnwDR8w)
[3] [https://www.reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/...026-09-21/)
[4] [https://kyivindependent.com](https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-fo...s-factory/)
[5] [https://oilprice.com](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/...inery.html)
[6] [https://www.youtube.com](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWTPOdIPic8)
[7] [https://www.iea.org](https://www.iea.org/commentaries/russian...an-attacks)
[8] [https://www.facebook.com](https://www.facebook.com/KCRA3/posts/rus...862517896/)
[9] [https://www.pbs.org](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/trump...a-shortage)

So basically we're paying Ukraine to advance the globalist agenda.

(10-01-2026 02:03 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  So, what is the "caveat" when fuel prices are down this winter, and the "industry insiders" are wrong......again? These people making these "predictions" make 8-digit bonuses when these prices are high. The last thing they will predict are lower prices. WTI is currently waaaaay overpriced. The US has more oil supply than any other time in history. We need to be building the refineries CA shut down immediately.

Wrong.

From September 9th:

Quote:The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) today raised its 2026-2027 retail diesel price forecasts by 4.4pc and 8.2pc, respectively, as low inventories and high global demand continue to boost prices.

US diesel prices should average $5.07/USG this year compared with $4.85/USG in the previous forecast, the agency said in its monthly Short Term Energy Outlook. The 2027 diesel price should average $4.40/USG, up from $4.07/USG in the previous forecast.

The agency also increased its 2026-2027 estimates for retail gasoline prices, but the increases were not as steep, reflecting that the global diesel market is significantly tighter than the gasoline market.

US gasoline prices will average $3.84/USG this year and $3.35/USG in 2027, up by 1.5pc and 1.8pc from the previous forecasts, the EIA said.

US fuel prices, especially distillates, have soared since late February because of global supply shortages caused by the US-Iran war as well as Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian refineries.

The EIA said Wednesday that it expects US distillate fuel oil inventories to drop below 100mn bl this month and remain below the five-year low through most of 2027.

Tightness in the global distillate market has raised domestic prices and incentivized higher US distillate exports, the EIA said.

Meanwhile, global production of distillate fuel will remain below last year's levels in the coming months, contributing to low US diesel inventories and high prices.

The effect will be particularly pronounced because of seasonal drops in distillate production and seasonal increases in distillate consumption during the fall and winter, the EIA said.

EIA sharply raises 2026-2027 diesel price forecast

And those current numbers they are basing this on are actually quite low considering their numbers today.

Per EIA this week for 9/28/26:

Gas - $4.465
Diesel - $6.382
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

2026 is on pace to be the most expensive year for diesel in our history...and gas will be right up there as well.

EDIT: WTI, if anything, has actually been underpriced for much of this war thanks to trumps market manipulation.

(10-01-2026 02:28 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  While I do believe more oil is passing through the Strait than there was a few months ago---oil prices (the truest indicator of supply and demand) continue to advance. That suggests to me that we arent yet back to the Gulf's pre-war levels of oil exports. As for diesel---high prices tend to curb demand---so my expectation is that diesel stocks rebound quicker than expected once enough crude oil is available to increase production. I do expect fuel prices to remain somewhat elevated for a while even after we return to pre-war world oil production because worldwide petroleum reserve stocks also need to be refilled--and that demand will persist until national reserves reach a safe level.

Why do you think high diesel will curb demand? How else is our trucking industry going to move product?