(11-22-2020 07:21 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Cincy at 20%
BYU at 13%
with no one in the Top 8 losing the margins thinned considerably.

With the CFP in, ESPN's numbers have changed:

100% Alabama/Florida
100% Notre Dame
100% Ohio State/Northwestern
74% USC
73% Oregon
71% Alabama (w/LOSS)
61% Cincinnati
52% Clemson
44% Notre Dame (w/LOSS)
40% Texas A&M
22% Miami
21% Indiana
20% Wisconsin
17% Washington
15% BYU
4% Northwestern (w/LOSS)
3% Ohio State (w/LOSS)
2% Florida (w/LOSS)
2% Oklahoma
<1% Georgia

It looks like the Big Ten's chances hinge on going undefeated. In reality, a 1-loss OSU champ is going to get more than a 3% look at making the playoff. Clemson is also given an astonishingly low 52% playoff chance if they win out.

I agree with the assessment in another thread that Cincy likely sits behind any 1-loss SEC/ACC team, so rooting for Alabama and Notre Dame (at least in their CCGs) makes sense.

Not sure I buy an undefeated Pac-12 team as the most likely #4 team, but that may just be because I've seen so little of their play.

BYU looks buried without a P5 game. Even if they were to blowout Utah, I'm not sure it would help much. The key, too, is getting a game that final week.