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Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
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Post: #221
RE: Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
It really is a pretty limited group with a shot now, barring a LOT of upsets in the last 4 weeks (seems strange that Thanksgiving weekend isn't the last week before the ccgs).

SEC-Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M
ACC-Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami
Big 10-Ohio St., Northwestern
Pac 12-USC, Washington, Oregon

And the Pac 12 schools have almost no chance if they don't go unbeaten.
11-22-2020 12:46 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #222
RE: Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
(11-22-2020 12:46 PM)bullet Wrote:  It really is a pretty limited group with a shot now, barring a LOT of upsets in the last 4 weeks (seems strange that Thanksgiving weekend isn't the last week before the ccgs).

SEC-Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M
ACC-Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami
Big 10-Ohio St., Northwestern
Pac 12-USC, Washington, Oregon

And the Pac 12 schools have almost no chance if they don't go unbeaten.

True, but as long as Oregon and USC keep winning - and they don't play each other in the regular season - the winner of their CCG game would get strong consideration, and likely get in over once-beaten P5 teams that do not win their conferences.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2020 01:05 PM by quo vadis.)
11-22-2020 01:04 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #223
RE: Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
(11-22-2020 12:16 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 11:51 AM)esayem Wrote:  Texas A&M and Miami need to play in the Severely Overrated Bowl.

Bulletin board material on December 12th?

I absolutely cannot wait for that game when the Heels hang fifty on those bums.*

*Bum is a relative term. Obviously they aren’t untalented.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2020 01:33 PM by esayem.)
11-22-2020 01:31 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #224
RE: Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
(11-22-2020 12:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I think some regulation is required here that would mandate a coach cannot abandon a team before the final game of that season is played for that team which includes bowls. I think it displays a lack of commitment which is a poor leadership trait. You’re already going to leave. But, given the current climate on this topic, so what is best for you and your family.

I agree that it is much fairer if coaches could not do this, but as a matter of policy the NCAA cannot have such a rule. It would be a restraint of trade violation.

The only thing that can happen is for schools to write such terms in to the contracts of coaches. But even then they could not out-right prevent it, only punish it. E.g., the contract could say that if coach leaves before the bowl game, he owes the university an extra buyout amount. But the coach could still leave anyway if he wanted to. You can't prevent a coach from leaving job A for job B when he wants, any more than Burger King can tell a kid he can't quit tomorrow and join McDonalds if he wants.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2020 01:40 PM by quo vadis.)
11-22-2020 01:39 PM
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Crayton Online
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Post: #225
RE: Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
(11-22-2020 07:21 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Cincy at 20%
BYU at 13%
with no one in the Top 8 losing the margins thinned considerably.

With the CFP in, ESPN's numbers have changed:

100% Alabama/Florida
100% Notre Dame
100% Ohio State/Northwestern
74% USC
73% Oregon
71% Alabama (w/LOSS)
61% Cincinnati
52% Clemson
44% Notre Dame (w/LOSS)
40% Texas A&M
22% Miami
21% Indiana
20% Wisconsin
17% Washington
15% BYU
4% Northwestern (w/LOSS)
3% Ohio State (w/LOSS)
2% Florida (w/LOSS)
2% Oklahoma
<1% Georgia

It looks like the Big Ten's chances hinge on going undefeated. In reality, a 1-loss OSU champ is going to get more than a 3% look at making the playoff. Clemson is also given an astonishingly low 52% playoff chance if they win out.

I agree with the assessment in another thread that Cincy likely sits behind any 1-loss SEC/ACC team, so rooting for Alabama and Notre Dame (at least in their CCGs) makes sense.

Not sure I buy an undefeated Pac-12 team as the most likely #4 team, but that may just be because I've seen so little of their play.

BYU looks buried without a P5 game. Even if they were to blowout Utah, I'm not sure it would help much. The key, too, is getting a game that final week.
11-24-2020 09:03 PM
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