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Buy or Sell: ESPN Playoff Odds (not the Brian Kelly thread) - Printable Version

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Buy or Sell: ESPN Playoff Odds (not the Brian Kelly thread) - Crayton - 10-23-2020 10:30 PM

ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 29% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. Too high? Too low? Overall these Cougars are rated the 9th most likely playoff team and the only non-“Power” team given >0.0% chance by FPI.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - quo vadis - 10-23-2020 10:33 PM

More like 5%.

Terrible SOS


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - Pervis_Griffith - 10-23-2020 10:36 PM

Balderdash!!!

27% MAX!! 29% is crazy talk!


Like those 8 minute abs folk!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB2di69FmhE&feature=emb_logo


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - Crayton - 10-23-2020 10:52 PM

If BYU has 29%, I don’t see why BSU wouldn’t have more than 0.0%. Schedules are comparable.

Before the season, ESPN said they would weight FPI this season based on relative “conference” strength. Not sure what they did with Independents, but it looks a little screwy.

That said I (without weights for conferences) have a 10-0 BYU at 92% (same for undefeated Cincy), so I don’t have much room to talk.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - Todor - 10-23-2020 10:56 PM

Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning. They essentially had the choice to play who they could get or sit home that week.

09/03 – at Utah
09/12 – Michigan State
09/19 – at Arizona State
09/26 – at Minnesota
10/02 – Utah State
10/10 – Missouri
10/16 – Houston
10/24 – at Northern Illinois
10/31 – OFF
11/06 – at Boise State
11/14 – San Diego State
11/21 – North Alabama
11/28 – at Stanford


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - quo vadis - 10-23-2020 11:30 PM

(10-23-2020 10:56 PM)Todor Wrote:  Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning.

Nobody is blaming BYU for their schedule. But we can"t give them credit for teams they aren't playing.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - Captain Bearcat - 10-23-2020 11:45 PM

BYU is also hindered by the chance that Cincinnati or SMU will go undefeated.

If it's a choice between a BYU team whose hardest game was at Army, or a Cincinnati team who beat Army and 2-3 other ranked teams, the committee will go with Cincinnati.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - ChrisLords - 10-24-2020 02:50 AM

BYU has a 0.0% chance of making the playoff if undefeated. Even if everyone else has a loss. The CFP selection committee will find a way to keep them out.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - jedclampett - 10-24-2020 03:17 AM

(10-24-2020 02:50 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  BYU has a 0.0% chance of making the playoff if undefeated. Even if everyone else has a loss. The CFP selection committee will find a way to keep them out.

If that ends up happening, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a movement at BYU to align with the AAC, or possibly the MWC, where they could play more nationally-ranked teams.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - kevinwmsn - 10-24-2020 08:37 AM

They will put a 3-0 Ohio State in over an undefeated BYU team.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - esayem - 10-24-2020 10:00 AM

Buy, but it will be tough. Undefeated BYU —who has absolutely been torching teams — has name cache to break the barrier if the second place SEC, ACC, and Big Ten teams have two losses. I find it unlikely OK State, K-State, or Iowa St. finishes with one loss. A few Pac teams could be a threat to overtake them, but BYU is 12 right now, they just need to climb 8 spots.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - schmolik - 10-24-2020 10:01 AM

(10-23-2020 10:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 29% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. Too high? Too low? Overall these Cougars are rated the 9th most likely playoff team and the only non-“Power” team given >0.0% chance by FPI.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

29% "if" they go undefeated. The better question is what is the chance they will be undefeated?


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - goodknightfl - 10-24-2020 10:02 AM

.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.

SELL SELL SELL!!


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - f1do - 10-24-2020 11:03 AM

I'm not holding my breath but am just enjoying the ride. BYU only has 10 games on the current schedule unless they are able to reschedule Army (previous date was covid-cancelled) in one of the spots they have held open to try and improve the SOS with some P5 conferences starting again who might have a gap due to a covid-cancellation and a team wants a replacement (open dates are 11/14, 11/28, 12/5).

(10-24-2020 03:17 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  If that ends up happening, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a movement at BYU to align with the AAC, or possibly the MWC, where they could play more nationally-ranked teams.

The indy schedule BYU put together would have been perfectly adequate if covid hadn't scuttled so many games. In 2021 (assuming things aren't still covid-crazy), BYU will almost play a PAC-12 conference schedule (5 games--Arizona, Utah, Arizona State, USC, Washington State), Baylor from the Big 12, and Virginia from the ACC, and have their annual game against Boise State.

This year they still have several late season dates open in hopes of landing a higher-ranked game. But I don't know that joining the ACC/MWC fills their schedule with nationally-ranked teams, does it?


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - bill dazzle - 10-24-2020 11:10 AM

(10-23-2020 11:45 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  BYU is also hindered by the chance that Cincinnati or SMU will go undefeated.

If it's a choice between a BYU team whose hardest game was at Army, or a Cincinnati team who beat Army and 2-3 other ranked teams, the committee will go with Cincinnati.


Thanks for jinxing us, CapBearcat.

On a serious note, an undefeated Cincy or SMU would have as good a shot as an undefeated BYU of a playoff invite — which is the same chance I would have had, whilst sporting white muttonchop sideburns that flow to my groin region and wearing a pink and purple leotard, scoring a date with Kristin Welker after a chance meeting here in Nashville and following the presidential debate at Belmont U.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - BePcr07 - 10-24-2020 11:18 AM

(10-24-2020 08:37 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  They will put a 3-0 Ohio State in over an undefeated BYU team.

“Eye Test”


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - Crayton - 10-24-2020 12:38 PM

(10-24-2020 08:37 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  They will put a 3-0 Ohio State in over an undefeated BYU team.
A relevant factor here is that a B1G team must play 6 games (or within 2 of conference average) to be CCG eligible. Even a 6-0 final record implies missing the BTCG. Not a death knell for tOSU, but an easy-enough excuse to exclude them.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - ManleyPointer - 10-24-2020 01:15 PM

It's an interesting hypothetical but I'm told by our older fans that BYU's best ever team was 1985. And they lost to an otherwise winless UTEP.

(10-23-2020 11:30 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:56 PM)Todor Wrote:  Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning.

Nobody is blaming BYU for their schedule. But we can"t give them credit for teams they aren't playing.

We did in 1984. That championship is often dogged because BYU played a subpar Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. An 11-1 Washington had a chance to play us. They balked & took the Orange Bowl payday. Pollsters remembered that.

Of course that was a different era. The current system has less room for "outsider" programs. Still, I could see an "insider" team (Minnesota? Arizona State?) being snubbed in the post-season for refusing to play us. Especially if that snub would open the door for a blueblood program.


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - quo vadis - 10-24-2020 02:39 PM

(10-24-2020 01:15 PM)ManleyPointer Wrote:  It's an interesting hypothetical but I'm told by our older fans that BYU's best ever team was 1985. And they lost to an otherwise winless UTEP.

(10-23-2020 11:30 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:56 PM)Todor Wrote:  Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning.

Nobody is blaming BYU for their schedule. But we can"t give them credit for teams they aren't playing.

We did in 1984. That championship is often dogged because BYU played a subpar Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. An 11-1 Washington had a chance to play us. They balked & took the Orange Bowl payday. Pollsters remembered that.

I remember 1984 very well. Yes, BYU lucked out in playing sorry Michigan in their bowl game (and a schleppy uninspiring win at that, I remember watching). No, you can't blame Washington for playing in the Orange Bowl rather than the Holiday Bowl. Anyone would do that. But the real reason you guys won the title was nobody else was very good that year.

Sure, had BYU played Washington or Florida, you probably would have lost. But so what. Nobody was really much good and you guys were undefeated so .... championship.

04-cheers


RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs? - Todor - 10-24-2020 11:42 PM

(10-24-2020 03:17 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(10-24-2020 02:50 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  BYU has a 0.0% chance of making the playoff if undefeated. Even if everyone else has a loss. The CFP selection committee will find a way to keep them out.

If that ends up happening, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a movement at BYU to align with the AAC, or possibly the MWC, where they could play more nationally-ranked teams.

I guess the AAC is at least a possibility, but a deal with the Mountain West is virtually impossible. I can’t even imagine it being discussed by with side.