(07-23-2020 02:08 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 01:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 12:24 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 12:08 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 11:45 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  Even with all indicators pointing red

There's your problem. All indicators are NOT red.
Retail rebounding quickly - headline, ex-auto, and core.
Manufacturing sentiment up - both Empire State survey and Philly Fed index.
Housing data up to 1,220k permits.
Personal savings rate historically high at 19.7%.
Q2 & Q3 forecast GDP is up.

If you're in Tech, it's easy to get caught-up in thinking that is all there is to the economy. It's not.

You are thinking up versus the bottom.. im saying up versus comparable valuations (i.e. is 27K Dow today the same as 27K last year).

YoY housing starts are down, Q3/Q4 GDP forecast is way down versus last year and personal savings rate being historically high is bad as it indicates low consumer confidence.

Essentially, equities (especially risk adjusted) have become tremendously more expensive as both GDP and earnings expectations has fallen off a cliff. Using DJI as an example, forward P/E is up 25% YoY (from 19 to 23) - essentially every dollar of earnings is now 25% more expensive and thats despite the higher risk

And there was a sell-off that adjusted to the bottom. So "up" is the right way to look at it. As I proved, all indicators are not red. I'm done with the back and forth.

Lol... the only thing you proved is that 1) time horizons matter; and 2) you arent familiar with valuation methods (no shame in that)