(03-22-2020 07:34 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-22-2020 04:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  The area under the curve will only decrease if something changes. But change in our case is very likely. First we have the weather warming up, and that may really help. Second, there are new treatments showing real promise. So the flatter that curve, the more people that might either not get it or have access to new treatments.

The area under curve doesnt really change. It just doesnt spike, thus keeping the demand for healthcare within the capacity of the healthcare system.

What Im thinking is we will have to shift gears here soon. Seal the border to each state except for cargo. Call up the national guard and use them to do the labor intensive job of contact tracing in states where the number of cases is relatively low.
Using this method, you can largely control the virus spread in those low infection states.

Where the virus is out of control---lock it down until you get infections down low enough to use contact tracing. If we do that, we can control the virus spread while doing much less damage to the economy.

The area under the curve will likely be less, but that's not the point. The point is to reduce the peak to a manageable level.