(02-27-2020 02:15 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Some interesting trends based in the current counts (as of 1am Thursday morning). Everyone has discussed the fact that China may be lying about the numbers. Its still early---but the recovered-to-deaths ratios outside of China sure are trending differently.

China--

Current deaths divided by total infections would indicate a mortality floor of about 3.5%. China shows 2,747 dead and 32,587 recovered. That would suggest a high end of the mortality rate of around 7.8%

Italy---

Current deaths divided by total infections would indicate a mortality floor of about 2.6%. 12 dead/3 recovered. Those numbers suggest a high end of the mortality rate of 80%. Thats much much higher than the same ratio in China. Also, the current percentage of critical cases is much lower than in China (19% critical cases in China vs just 7.6% in Italy).

S Korea---

Current deaths divided by total infections would indicate a mortality floor of about .8% (much lower than China and Italy). On the other hand---with 13 dead and 24 recovered---That would suggest a high end of the mortality rate of around 35% S Korea only shows about 1% of current cases as critical (vs 19% in China and 7.6% in Italy).

The only thing I can think of is perhaps its so early in the virus ramp up in these new areas that few of the infections are very far along---thus the numbers are just all over the place.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Figures don't lie, but liars figure (not you, but the author)

The denominator is not remotely accurate as we are not testing people who did not get direct exposure or are symptomatic.

The BEST you could say is that if you had direct contact with someone who was infected and are symptomatic, that the mortality rate could be very high. There are probably MILLIONS of infected people who have not been tested for a variety of reasons who are not in the denominator.

For Italy especially, I'd like to know what percentage of those people who died had otherwise compromised systems? I recall for a fact that most of the early deaths reported in countries other than China were from people with compromised systems.