(01-31-2020 12:09 PM)q5sys Wrote:  

(01-31-2020 10:37 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  Lock yourself in your basement with a surgical mask. I'll take my chances with the virus. This is a nothingburger in a chart with 2 other nothingburgers.

I'm not doing that, besides locking yourself in really wont accomplish much if you're not prepared. A friend of mine mentioned the other day that he'll barricade himself in if it gets bad in his area. But if the 2 week infectious incubation period is true, by the time it 'gets bad' its already to late. Rushing out to the grocery store to stock up on food wont matter if you want until everyone in the area is coughing, not to mention since most food is pre-packaged, you'd want to make sure the supply chain for the food your buying is ok.

I don't think it'll spread as fast in western nations due to better hygiene, but we're still at the point where we don't really know whats what because of how China deals with issues that would give it a negative image. The fact that they did respond so fast is a good thing and will help decrease the problem, but it also shows that this was far worse than they claimed at first.

The real question is about what the R0 value of this virus, that is, what the rate of transmission is. Right now that's been hovering between 2-5. Some have placed it as low as 1.4 others as high as 5.5

Calculating the correct value is tricky. If R0 is 3, then on average every new case will create three new cases. That may seem pretty straight forward but since its an average its not. You could have one person infect 9 while two other people infected none.
Until that figure is more accurately pegged there's no real way to know how bad things could get. The numbers china is admitting to aren't good, but due to it being China... everyone questions how accurate there is.

Realistically in a modern country like the US, there's not much you can do to really keep yourself from being exposed other than proper hygiene and washing your hands often. Since its winter time, if it makes someone more comfortable, wear gloves if you're out in a public place if you're going to be opening doors or touching things a lot of other people have (public transit, taxis, etc.)

The key here is not to either A) overreact or B) under-react and think it's all overblown. Pride goes before a fall. It's silly to go out and buy a biohazard suit at this time, but its also silly to think you're impervious and as a result don't use common sense.

Also to keep in mind most media places are calculating the death rate incorrectly. You dont take total infections and divide by deaths, because the virus has to be allowed to work its course. IF 1000 people were infected 2 weeks ago and 100 of them died people died but now 10,000 people are infected.
This is wrong: 10,000 / 100 = death rate
This is correct: 1,000 / 100 = death rate

But right now the media seems to be trying to play the 10,000/100 game. We need to track the recovery and death rate over time. It's not just a simple matter of dividing totals.
When China is reporting near 10,000 infected, and around 100 dead but also only reporting around 100 recoveries... the numbers don't work out. All infections either recover or die. Total number must equal deaths + recoverys. If it doesn't, you're not working with complete data. And the greater the disparity between those two values the more inaccurate your predictions/assessment will be.