The 20 with a chance
Others have said there are only about 20 teams with a realistic chance at a national championship. There are numbers that back that up.
In the 35 years since BYU won an MNC, who would never be voted #1 today, 17 teams have won AP national championships. Doesn't take an intimate knowledge of college football to guess at least 15 of the 17-the 9 bluebloods-USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St., Notre Dame and Alabama; the 3 Florida upstarts-Miami, FSU, Florida; 3 SEC powers-LSU, Auburn, Tennessee; Clemson and Colorado. There are 3 other schools-Georgia, Oregon and Washington (who has a coaches' poll MNC in that period) that make up the 20 with a realistic chance.
The 17 schools have all 35 championships, 88 of 105 top 3 finishes and 133 of 175 top 5 finishes. When you throw in the other 3, it is 97 of 105 top 3 finishes and 148 of 175 top 5 finishes.
Each of these 20 schools has at least 4 top 5 finishes. No other school has more than 2. Each has at least 2 top 3 finishes. Only TCU among the remaining schools has 2. And only 6 other schools even have one top 3 in the last 35 years (the others are Oklahoma St., Stanford, Utah (who was overrated because of a typical Alabama fold in a non-title bowl game), Michigan St., Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech--who has a coaches' poll MNC).
So if you start with these 20, you have a pretty good chance of getting, not only the champ, but the entire top 3. It has opened up a little. From 1985-2007, these schools had all but 2 of the top 3 finishes. There have been 6 interlopers in the last 12 years.
The domination goes even further back than 1985, going back to the 60s. 1965 was the last time 2 schools outside this group made the top 3 and there were only 7 from 1966 to 1984. Only BYU in 1984 and Pitt in 1976 have AP titles outside the group going all the way back to 1960.
|